Underdog Pick Em: Week 11

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points, and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 11. We are going with a trio of Pick Em overs this week, two of which are correlated plays

Undervalued Wide Receivers (3X)

Rome Odunze Higher than 33.5 Receiving Yards

• Rome Odunze has recorded at least 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games and is emerging as the top option in the Chicago passing offense.
• Despite a disappointing rookie season, Odunze has been the most consistent performer among the Bears' top wide receivers and should be the focal point of the passing game moving forward.
• With Keenan Allen likely departing after this season and concerns about D.J. Moore's attitude and body language, Chicago’s coaching staff needs to prioritize developing their Top 10 draft picks, Odunze and Caleb Williams.
• New offensive coordinator Thomas Brown is simplifying the offense to help Caleb Williams regain his rhythm. Quarterback coach Kerby Joseph emphasized, “It’s rhythm and timing and getting the ball out of our hands and into the playmakers’ hands. If your No. 1 is open, let’s get it to him. We continue to talk about that. And when we do that, now those plays become unsackable.” Expect Rome Odunze to be the primary read on many plays in Week 11.

Rome Odunze led the Chicago Bears with a 32% first-read target rate in Week 10.

That's two of the past three games that Odunze has led the offense in first-read targets.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 11, 2024

• The Packers' defense has generally been strong against wide receivers but has struggled against big-bodied outside receivers: A.J. Brown (119 yards), Alec Pierce (56), DeAndre Hopkins (73), and Brian Thomas Jr.. (60) have all had solid performances against Green Bay.

Rashod Bateman Higher than 35.5 Receiving Yards

• Over his last six games, Rashod Bateman has averaged 3.7 receptions, 59.5 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns on 5.5 targets per game.

The Baltimore Ravens showed confidence in Rashod Bateman, and so far he's delivered. https://t.co/iBnHBrTD4g

— WJZ | CBS Baltimore (@wjz) November 15, 2024

• Bateman has been targeted at least four times in 90% of his games this season.
• The Steelers have struggled against opposing wide receivers in their last three games:
  • Last week, Terry McLaurin recorded 113 receiving yards.
  • In the previous game, Darius Slayton posted 108 yards, and Malik Nabers added 71 yards.
  • Two weeks prior, both Allen Lazard (58 yards) and Garrett Wilson (61 yards) had solid performances.

Raiders-Dolphins WR1s (3X)

Tyreek Hill Higher than 68.5 Receiving Yards

• Tyreek Hill has surpassed 70 receiving yards in 75% of Tua Tagovailoa's full games this season, matching his 75% rate from last season (12 of 16 games).
• Despite playing through a wrist injury, wide receivers coach Wes Welker emphasized it hasn’t limited Hill's production and has challenged him and Jaylen Waddle to improve their route running.

Dolphins WR coach Wes Welker said Tyreek's performance is NOT being affected by wrist injury. Said Waddle/Hill "are starting to realize how perfect we have to be" to get them open and involved with the way teams are defending them and jamming them at line.

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) November 14, 2024

Jakobi Meyers Higher than 56.5 Receiving Yards

• Over his last five games, Jakobi Meyers has averaged 6.4 catches for 68 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 9.2 targets per game, with at least 60 receiving yards in four of seven games this season.
• Meyers has topped 60 receiving yards in all three games where the Raiders have allowed at least 30 points this season, making this a strong correlation play if Miami's offense dominates.

49ers-Seahawks Hot Hands (3X)

Christian McCaffrey Higher than 78.5 Rushing Yards

• In his first game back, Christian McCaffrey played 88% of the snaps, immediately resuming his workhorse role for the 49ers.

• Since joining the 49ers, McCaffrey has faced the Seahawks four times, rushing for at least 109 yards in each game.

• In their Week 6 matchup, 49ers running backs combined for 194 rushing yards on 25 carries against Seattle.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Higher than 52.5 Receiving Yards

• In Week 6 against San Francisco, Seahawks wide receivers combined for 184 receiving yards, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba contributing 53 yards on nine targets.
• Smith-Njigba is coming off a career-best performance with 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns, despite having additional long catches called back due to penalties. Even with DK Metcalf returning, the Seahawks are likely to continue heavily targeting Smith-Njigba as the future of their wide receiver corps.

When I watch Jaxon Smith-Njigba's film, I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t continue to see the downfield looks he got in the Seahawks game before the bye week.

Will he? Different question. pic.twitter.com/tQK7a8T8UR

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 14, 2024