Underdog Pick Em: Week 9

Underdog Pick'em is a thrilling daily fantasy game where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. Get all your selections right, and you can win big!

How It Works

To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points, and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 9, including different payout options. Whether you're aiming for a simple two-pick win or stacking five props, I've got you covered.

Falcons-Cowboys Pass Stack (3X)

This is a positive correlation play that still gives us the full 3X payout if we hit. Should Kirk Cousins have a big day throwing the ball, it increases the chances CeeDee Lamb has a big yardage game (and vice versa). 

CeeDee Lamb – Over 92.5 Rush + Rec. Yards

• Lamb started last season slowly, posting 77 or fewer total yards in four of his first five games before exceeding 100 yards in nine of his final 13 games (69.2%). This season began similarly, with Lamb recording 91 or fewer yards in five of his first six games before erupting for 146 receiving yards last week.
• His recent volume increase is significant, as he has averaged 15.5 targets over the past two games compared to 8.2 targets per game in the first five weeks. This uptick could be due in part to Lamb finally rounding fully into form after an extended holdout cost him virtually all of training camp.
• Given Dallas' defensive struggles and Cousins' potential for a strong performance, Lamb is well-positioned to surpass this total through a combination of rushing and receiving yards.

Bills-Dolphins RB stack (3X)

The Dolphins have not thrown the ball well against the Bills in recent meetings but have been successful on the ground. Achane has been especially impactful in these matchups. James Cook has not put up huge numbers as a pass catcher but his receiving prop in this matchup is simply too low.

De'Von Achane – Over 46.5 Rushing Yards

• Achane was a focal point of the Dolphins' offense in Week 2 against the Bills, rushing for 96 yards on 22 carries and adding 69 receiving yards on seven catches.
• In his career, Achane has faced the Bills three times and has surpassed 50 rushing yards in each encounter.
• The Bills' run defense has been inconsistent, with standout performances like holding Ken Walker III to 12 yards on nine carries last week. However, they have also allowed significant rushing games to players like Derrick Henry (199 yards) and Breece Hall (113 yards), including a strong showing by Achane earlier this season.

James Cook – Over 14.5 Receiving Yards

• Cook has surpassed 15 receiving yards in five of seven games this season and in 17 of 26 games since taking over as the lead back last season (65.3% success rate).
• In three matchups against Miami over the past two seasons, Cook has recorded at least 15 receiving yards each time.
• Miami’s defense has allowed 15+ receiving yards to six different running backs in their seven games this season, indicating Cook's potential to hit this mark.

Chargers-Browns pass stack (6X)

The Chargers have abandoned the overly run-heavy approach the team opened the season with. Similarly, this Browns offense has operated much differently over the past two years with anyone other than Deshaun Watson running the show. We are going to throw on one random extra prop here, going under on Brock Bowers' longest reception to take this from a typical 3X to a 6X opportunity.

Brock Bowers – Longest Reception Under 20.5 Yards

• The Bengals’ defense is specifically structured to minimize explosive plays through the air, ranking fourth in the NFL for allowing the fewest passes over 20 yards (2.0 per game).
• Bowers' production has been notably lower when Jakobi Meyers is active. In games without Meyers, Bowers averaged 12.0 targets per game; with Meyers, that average drops to 6.8 targets.
• This trend suggests Bowers may be more limited in opportunities for big-yardage plays when sharing the field with key receivers like Meyers.

Justin Herbert – Over 31.5 Passing Attempts

• The Chargers have been the most pass-heavy team in neutral situations over the past three weeks, with Herbert recording 32 or more passing attempts in each of those games.

Greg Roman recently discovered Justin Herbert pic.twitter.com/QdF7blMGJU

— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) October 31, 2024

• Herbert is playing at an elite level now that he’s fully healthy, and the Chargers’ offense has evolved to focus on their most skilled player—Herbert himself.
• Despite the preference of some teams for a run-heavy strategy, recent shootout games have shown that the Chargers' approach is different, similar to last week’s high-volume game between Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston.

Jameis Winston – Over 35.5 Passing Attempts

• While it may be premature to generalize from Winston’s single 41-attempt game, a broader trend is clear when looking at Browns games without Deshaun Watson. Last season, with Joe Flacco starting six games, Cleveland threw 42+ passes in all but one, which was a blowout victory.
• Including Flacco’s starts, the Browns have passed 40+ times in seven of their last eight significant games without Watson, indicating that this pass-heavy approach could continue under Winston’s leadership.

In one start, Jameis Winston seemingly transformed the Browns’ offense. And on Sunday, he’ll get another opportunity to rectify what looked like a forlorn season.

“He's got so much energy. That stuff's contagious.” https://t.co/dr0ZN1JJom

— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) November 1, 2024