Underdog Pick Em: Week 5

Underdog Pick'em (Champions) is an exciting daily fantasy game that lets you predict player performance across various stats. The concept is simple: choose whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats, and if all your selections are correct, you can win big.

How It Works

To get started, pick at least two props from two different teams. These can include a player’s touchdowns, passing yards, or even fantasy points. Select whether each prop will go higher or lower than the projected stat.

Payouts

The payout structure rewards you based on the number of selections in your ticket. The more props you add, the higher the potential payout. Typically, Underdog Fantasy's pick'em contests follow these payout multiples:

• Two picks: 3x
• Three picks: 6x
• Four picks: 10x
• Five picks: 20x

I’ll note if any of the picks given in this article have a different payout structure. Whether you're placing a simple two-pick ticket or aiming for the stars with five, there are plenty of options.

Bengals-Ravens

This matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout, with both offenses playing at a high level. The game has a surprisingly high total of 49.5 points, driven by the Bengals' elite offensive performance over the past three weeks and their struggling defense. Here are the props to consider:

Chase Brown – Higher than 32.5 Rushing Yards

• Chase Brown has been the more efficient runner compared to backfield mate Zack Moss, adding 9.8 expected points on his carries, while Moss has a -2.0 EPA on his attempts. Among backs with 20+ carries, Brown leads the NFL with an impressive 6.3 yards per carry.

• His playing time and usage have steadily increased. Last week, he played a season-high 40% of the snaps in the win over Carolina and recorded 15 carries for 80 yards, marking his third consecutive week of increased carries. Brown has been the more effective and efficient runner. 

Zay Flowers – Higher than 48.5 Receiving Yards

• Zay Flowers has posted at least 50 receiving yards in 11 of his 20 career games. His relatively modest numbers this season have been impacted by negative game scripts, including last week when Baltimore built an early lead after Derrick Henry’s 87-yard touchdown run on the first play.

• This week, the Bengals’ struggling secondary, particularly cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, presents an opportunity. Taylor-Britt was benched last week after giving up five catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. With the Bengals' defense lacking speed at safety, Flowers is poised for a productive outing, especially if the Bengals' offense forces the Ravens into a more pass-heavy game script.

Ja'Marr Chase – Higher than 72.5 Receiving Yards

• After missing training camp, Ja'Marr Chase needed a couple of weeks to get back to form. Over the past two weeks, he has returned to his dominant self, averaging 101.5 receiving yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.

• Chase has averaged 84.2 receiving yards per game against the Ravens in his career. With Baltimore employing Top 5 two-deep coverage, the Bengals have historically countered this defensive style with a lot of underneath targets to Chase, setting him up for another strong performance.

Cowboys-Steelers

This game opened with a total of 41.5 points but has risen to 43.5, signaling some sneaky shootout potential. With Steelers quarterback Justin Fields showing significant improvement this season and the Cowboys' defense missing key players like Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, there are some enticing overs to target.

Calvin Austin III – Higher than 11.5 Longest Reception

• Calvin Austin III is averaging an impressive 17.9 yards per reception this season. Over the past two weeks, he has caught 5 passes for 112 yards, equating to 22.4 yards per catch.

• Austin is earning a larger role in the Steelers' passing offense, and with his big-play potential, he is well-positioned to surpass this 11.5-yard mark on a single reception.

George Pickens – Higher than 22.5 Longest Reception

• George Pickens has had a reception of at least 27 yards in 3 of his 4 games this season. Extending this trend to the past 20 games, he has made a catch of at least 27 yards in 60% of them.

• With an average depth of target of 12.5 yards—one of the highest in the league for players with 20+ targets—Pickens consistently finds himself in position for big plays downfield, making this an attractive prop.

George Pickens is playing the best football of his NFL career and I'm not sure it's close. I continue to be super impressed with the way he's beating man and press coverage every week this season. pic.twitter.com/hFz52DsHgd

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 2, 2024

Jalen Tolbert – Higher than 34.5 Receiving Yards

• Jalen Tolbert has emerged as the Cowboys' clear WR2 in the absence of Brandin Cooks. Over the past three weeks, he has averaged 4.0 receptions for 49.3 yards, showcasing his ability to get open and make plays.

• Tolbert has passed the eye test with flying colors and has steadily become a trusted target for Dak Prescott. With a larger role in the offense, he has a strong chance of exceeding 34.5 receiving yards.

Jalen Tolbert produces a 124.6 passer rating when targeted, the 11th highest in the NFL.

(among qualifying WRs) pic.twitter.com/0qOpxr1qNZ

— Mauricio Rodríguez (@MauNFL) October 3, 2024

Jake Ferguson – Higher than 3.5 Receptions

• Since returning to the lineup in Week 3, Jake Ferguson has averaged 6.5 receptions for 72 yards on 9.0 targets per game. His usage has been massive, and there’s no reason to believe it’s a fluke.

• Ferguson has caught at least four passes in 9 of his last 10 games, with the only exception being Week 1 of this season, when he was sidelined due to injury. As Prescott's go-to option, Ferguson is poised to hit the over on this reception prop.

• This is my favorite individual player prop of Week 5. 

Packers-Rams

This game is projected to be the third-highest scoring of the weekend with a 48.5-point total. The matchup sets up well for the Packers, as the Rams' defense has been vulnerable against both the run and big plays in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Rams' passing game has found a new go-to option in Jordan Whittington.

Josh Jacobs – Higher than 14.5 Rushing Attempts

• Josh Jacobs has the seventh-most carries in the NFL (71). His rushing attempts prop may seem low due to the fact that he had just nine carries last week. However, this can be attributed to game script, as the Packers fell behind 28-0 early and were forced to abandon the run.

• The Rams' defense has faced the fourth-most rushing attempts this season and has allowed a league-high 662 rushing yards. With this in mind, the Packers are likely to establish the run with Jacobs early and often, giving him a strong chance to exceed 14.5 carries.

Dontayvion Wicks – Higher than 21.5 Longest Reception

• Wicks has built his reputation as a deep-ball specialist, averaging 14.9 yards per catch in his career. With Christian Watson out, Wicks is expected to take on an expanded role in the Packers' offense.

• Last week, he had an eye-popping 13 targets against Minnesota. Facing a Rams' secondary that has struggled to prevent big plays, Wicks is well-positioned to break off a long reception and hit this prop.

Are you starting Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks with Christian Watson out? pic.twitter.com/TVrSOVjwRY

— Footballguys Fantasy Football (@Footballguys) October 1, 2024

Jordan Whittington – Higher than 4.5 Receptions

• Jordan Whittington has emerged as the go-to option in the Rams' passing game with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. He thrives on underneath routes, a key component of the Rams' offense since Matthew Stafford's arrival in Los Angeles.

• In Week 4, Whittington played a career-high 97% of snaps, leading the team with six catches on eight targets. He has caught 84.6% of his targets this season, and his new every-down role makes him a great bet to see at least six targets again.

Are you plugging Rams WR Jordan Whittington into your Week 5 Fantasy Football lineups? pic.twitter.com/6Z5HgBlQHH

— Footballguys Fantasy Football (@Footballguys) October 2, 2024