NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Oddsmakers are predicting a low-scoring game on Thursday, with the Jets expected to edge out the Patriots 22-16. Given this forecast, a lineup composition favoring the Jets with a 4-2 Jets-to-Pats ratio seems logical. Although I can envision scenarios for a 5-1 Jets stack or an even 3-3 split between the teams, the limited scoring potential on the New England side hardly justifies having more than three of their players.

In my lineups, I plan to anchor with Breece Hall and likely pair him with Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson. Given the expected low score, it’s crucial to include players who are likely touchdown scorers—those who can turn the tide in your favor. Additionally, I’m considering adding a kicker or defense to my roster, potentially even two. While I haven’t finalized my lineup builds, I’m leaning toward not using the full salary cap. As discussed in last week’s column, this approach helps avoid duplicated lineups and the consequent split of prize pools, enhancing your chances of crafting the optimal lineup.

Injury Roundup

The final injury report ahead of Thursday night’s game raises concerns for the Patriots' offensive line. Left Tackle Vederian Lowe (knee) and Left Guard Sidy Sow (ankle) have been declared inactive while starting Center David Andrews is questionable with a hip injury. Mike Reiss reports that Andrews is likely to play; however, it’s crucial to verify his status on Thursday evening. If Andrews is sidelined, Rhamondre Stevenson’s high salary makes him a risky play (further details on Stevenson are discussed below).

On the Jets' side, they suffered a significant blow to their pass rush last week when Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles tendon during the game against the Titans. While Johnson’s absence could mean better protection for Jacoby Brissett, it doesn't necessarily warrant including Brissett in your lineups.

Captain Considerations

1. Breece Hall
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Aaron Rodgers

Tipandpick's Conviction Plays

1. Breece Hall
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Jets Defense
4. Hunter Henry