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NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Showdown Game Theory

Showdown contests are unlike any other in DFS. The limited player pool and extremely top-heavy payout structure place a strong emphasis on creating unique rosters that stand out from the masses. Novice Showdown players often build lineups designed to score the most points, but when these lineups succeed, they frequently tie with 20+ other players due to duplication. As a result, the payout for their "win" is significantly reduced because it's split among all those with the same lineup.

Given how rare it is to finish atop a Showdown tournament, it's crucial to maximize your share of the prize when you do win. Duplicate lineups are your enemy, so your goal should be to create unique lineups as often as possible. How can you approach building differentiated lineups? There are several strategies:

• • Avoid obvious correlations: For example, instead of pairing a quarterback with a running back from the same team, consider more unconventional combinations. You might also choose to roster an opposing team's defense, even if you're stacking offensive players from the other side.

  • Defy Vegas predictions: Going against what oddsmakers project is a great way to avoid redundant lineups. If Vegas expects a high-scoring game, but you believe it could be lower-scoring, consider rostering team defenses and kickers instead of more expensive skill position players.

  • Leave salary on the table: The simplest way to create unique rosters is by not using your full $50K salary cap. Most players struggle to leave $3K to $6K unused, but in my experience, this strategy still produces winning lineups while offering the differentiation needed to claim the top prize for yourself.

Injury Roundup

The big news heading into Thursday night's game is that Raheem Mostert will be sidelined due to a chest injury suffered on Sunday against the Jaguars. Mostert's absence might normally provide De'Von Achane with a prime opportunity to take over as Miami's lead running back. However, Achane is listed as a game-time decision due to an ankle injury, making Jeff Wilson Jr. an intriguing pivot play at a bargain price.

While arguably less significant, it's worth noting that Bills cornerback Taron Johnson will miss the game with a forearm injury, which could further boost the appeal of Miami's already enticing receiving corps.

Captain Considerations

1. Tyreek Hill
2. Josh Allen
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. Jeff Wilson Jr.
5. Jaylen Waddle
6. James Cook

Tipandpick's Conviction Plays

1. Jeff Wilson Jr.
2. Keon Coleman
3. Josh Allen