DraftKings Thursday Showdown, Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Showdown Game Theory

With so many question marks entering Week 1, it's wise to look to Vegas for tonight's expectations. Sportsbooks project a close, relatively low-scoring affair similar to the teams' Divisional Round meeting (Chiefs, 17-10).

Of course, in the DFS world, we don't particularly care who wins or loses, nor by how many. We're trying to identify who will be responsible for those points. And that's much easier to do for the Ravens, who boast a much tighter and more condensed group of skill players. Most of their production will come from Lamar Jackson and just a few weapons, compared to the wide mishmash of contributors on the Chiefs. That's why I'll be somewhat Baltimore-heavy tonight: less guesswork and, in some key spots, lower rostership.

I have a theory, one that may or may not hold water, that Week 1 contests are played more heavily by the general – and perhaps less scrutinizing – public. Practically speaking, that could lead to inflated rostership for better-known players. Does Patrick Mahomes II get a "general public" boost in rostership? Did enough people follow the Chiefs' injury pecking order to know about Justin Watson? These are points to consider as we look to diversify tonight.

Injury Roundup

Both teams enter the season mostly healthy. The only notable absence for fantasy purposes will be Chiefs receiver Hollywood Brown (shoulder), but the team added significant depth in the offseason.

Captain Considerations

1. Travis Kelce
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Isiah Pacheco
4. Derrick Henry
5. Mark Andrews