It's championship week. Most of the film study is done. I'm doing some on Michael Penix Jr. for this week's Gut Check. Otherwise, the rest of my time will be looking ahead to the 2025 rookie class and fantasy season.

Instead, let's examine new lessons learned -- and old ones validated -- in 2024. 

No Cliff's Notes are necessary. 

1. Look for Layers, Not the Magic Pill

Late-Round QB. Stud RB. Zero RB and Hero RB (you old-timers know their real names...haha). These strategies are effective guidelines for getting fantasy managers on the road to thinking critically about how to become more effective drafters. 

Unfortunately, fantasy managers, when given a strategy, adopt a tourist mentality for the rest of the fantasy season. They lose all common sense and forget about critical decision-making.

Just like the sensible teachers, executives, and tradespeople who go on vacation, become a tourist, and decide it's sensible to get off the bus to play grab ass on the side of the road with deer, moose, and buffalo. 

Gore = Excellent RB for a longer period than most...Goring = bodily harm, medical bills, and public embarrassment for behaving like an idiot. 

These fantasy guidelines for drafting have the same purpose: Exploiting value where it potentially exists in summer drafts. That's the real trick -- which strategies, if there's one at all, are the best basis for your drafts? 

How do you get better at determining your strategies? If you're in a long-running league where everyone does the same thing, much of your strategy will be based on knowing your competition's predictability and using that to your advantage. 

Otherwise, you're seeking layers of information beyond the magic pill of the snappy strategy name. A good example is the decision to exploit top running backs this year. Here were my layers of thinking heading into 2024 that led me to adopt this idea in my Preseason Draft Plan. 

• The prolific passing attacks of recent years forced NFL defenses to spread the field and use smaller and lighter personnel to keep up. 
• Eventually, more NFL offenses would counter lighter defenses with the ground game, but a tipping point would be necessary for more teams to change their attack because there would be a lower supply of quality big defenders. 
• That tipping point began with opposing defenses using Cover 2 against the Chiefs to limit the vertical game.
• The tipping point continued when opposing defenses began using umbrella coverages like Cover 2 to reduce the production of NFL passing attacks. 
• The time to adjust for 2024 came in October of 2023 when the NFL production on the ground was collectively at its highest in a decade and passing production dropped. 
• The increase of condensed offensive formations -- multiple tight ends and/or a fullback to run through lighter defensive personnel. 

You see, there are schematic, strategic, and statistical layers underpinning the idea that workhorse running backs could present value. 

The six workhorses I recommended this summer were Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Breece Hall. It's unrealistic to expect all of them to hit, but Barkley, Henry, and Robinson are three of the top-five RBs in PPR formats heading into Week 17. 

Barkley and Henry were my most touted values, and you could have gotten both in many leagues. Hall and Taylor are delivering RB2 production despite not delivering the anticipated return on investment.  

Lessons to Learn:

• Look for layers of information from actual football to support a potential change in trends. 
• RBs who have a history of successful campaigns with high-volume workloads continue to produce at those rates until their athletic ability falls off the cliff. Think Henry and Barkley. 
• Teams that sign heavy-workload RBs to high-dollar free-agent contracts intend to use them as such. 
• Mobile QBs who are a threat to generate big plays as runners open more creases for RBs when coordinators use them to create binds of who opposing defenders should pursue.  

2. The Tony Pollard Effect

My RSP Going Deep Podcast co-host Brandon Angelo referenced Tony Pollard's 2022-23 injury and recovery as a perfect example of a point we must take into account: There's a difference between a player who is healthy enough to play and healthy enough to perform to his expected baseline value. 

Angelo is a trainer of professional athletes. He's qualified to make the distinction. 

Pollard was healthy enough to execute assignments as a runner, blocker, and receiver. Starters aren't just starters because they have excellent physical skills. Low-error football matters to coaches. 

The other side of the equation is that Pollard doesn't want to lose his job because he takes too long to return to the field. This leads to declining production and fantasy GMs wondering what's wrong. It can lead to speculation that the player has lost his physical talent. 

Angelo saw this coming with Kirk Cousins during the NFL Draft. When Cousins said he couldn't run at full speed in anything but a straight line, it was a tell that Cousins would not be at his expected baseline value to begin the season. 

Angelo noted Cousins would have difficulty moving his lower leg with the range of motion and explosion to generate torque as a thrower. This issue would impact velocity, timing, and placement at specific ranges of the field. 

This Michael Penix Jr. throw on Sunday to Darnell Mooney against the Giants didn't require Mooney to wait on the ball and risk a defensed target or punishment. 

The velocity on this deep out is one of the differences you'll see between Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp and Kirk Cousins this year. pic.twitter.com/rjQK1yiIaR

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Cousins' athletic limitations compressed the field and, ultimately, the Falcons' offense. The stats don't show the difference between Cousins this year and Penix's debut, but Penix's ability to stretch the defense opens the playbook for the Falcons' offense. 

I'll go into more detail in this week's Gut Check. The lesson here is that when athletic trainers to professionals have a studied perspective about an injury, it's worth paying attention -- especially injuries requiring a long recovery. 

Stay tuned for Angelo's thoughts on Rashee Rice. He shared some earlier this year. We'll follow up this summer. 

Lesson Learned: Being ready to play doesn't mean being ready to produce at pre-injury value. Learn about the injury before making the assumption and err on the side of caution.

3. Make Every Pick A Value Pick

Most of my 2024 rookie video work appeared in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio -- now available at the normal pre-order price between now and April for those who refused to pay at a discount. 

Although I didn't make many YouTube videos about the 2024 rookie class, I tried to make them count. One I've shared repeatedly since September of 2023 was about Marvin Harrison Jr., Jr.'s hands. 

Few wanted to hear that Harrison wasn't the next out-of-the-box, set-it-and-forget-it superstar. Harrison's ADP was the 15th pick in August. He's not even the 15th-best fantasy receiver, much less the 15th-best fantasy option this year. 

Harrison is WR35 in PPR formats entering Week 17. I ranked Harrison as WR38 this summer. My commentary: 

Matt Waldman on Aug 30

Why I'm lower on Harrison than those who have sold the farm:

1) Harrison excels at getting open late in routes but has some tells (he opens his chest to the defender too often) with his releases that will get him jammed more often by NFL cornerbacks.  

2) Because Harrison gets open later rather than earlier, he's not as great of a match for Kyler Murray, who lacks patience and efficiency in the pocket. This will make the timing with their vertical game less effective and reduce the number of viable vertical targets most are expecting to see converted between the two. 

3. Murray's pocket management is sub-par and forces receivers to re-route more than necessary. Developing a rapport with an unreliable pocket manager will be a challenge. 

4. Harrison has some attack issues that lead to drops. Not nearly as bad as Quentin Johnston, but may factor. 

Can he earn close to 1,000 yards? Sure. Will he be in Nacua territory? Not with Kyler Murray. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: The point about Harrison that applies to all picks is that when you take a player, it's wise to take him where you believe he can exceed the expectations of that pick. 

If I were taking Harrison as the 15th player overall, I saw a reasonable ceiling for him to deliver elite production as a top-five option overall. If I were taking Saquon Barkley as a top-five pick, I saw a reasonable path to a career year. 

The last time I took a rookie as a top-15 fantasy option? Edgerrin James at the turn with Eddie George. I was lucky. It was an awful move, considering Marshall Faulk was the available option I didn't take. 

Be reasonable about ceilings -- especially when one like Harrison is paired with a quarterback who hasn't proved he can sustain starter production for multiple receivers in the passing game. 

There were too many voices in the echo chamber, building up a talented but flawed player who needs work to attain Malik Nabers' level of production. Speaking of which...

4. Great Talents Can Survive A Bad Organization...

Caleb Williams is QB13 heading into Week 17 (I had him as QB15 in the preseason). Since Week 12, Williams has been delivering as fantasy football's QB6. 

Guess where I projected Williams from Week 12 onward? QB8 with the projected yardage and passing touchdown bump and...

"If Williams earns two more rushing touchdowns -- one out of every three contests, as I'm projecting -- you're looking at another two-point bump to his average, and that places Williams at 20 points per game. He'd be knocking on the door of top-five production."

Since Week 12? He's knocking pretty loud. 

Williams was the only quarterback in this draft that I thought an organization with as much dysfunction as the Bears couldn't ruin. Why? Williams' pocket presence, pass placement, creativity, mobility, and toughness. 

You couldn't win with Williams in re-draft formats this year--at least not until the playoffs, and it meant you better have had a startable passer during the regular season. However, it is notable that great talents can outlast bad coaches and organizational dysfunction if they can stay healthy. His dynasty ceiling should be as high as it was when Chicago drafted him. If not, get Williams at a discount. 

Lesson Learned/Validated: Rookies are best as long-term fantasy investments. If you're going to consider one as the exceptional case, make sure you track how many big risks you're taking in your draft and try to cut them down to a minimum. 

The 2024 NFL Draft Class was an exceptional group. You don't usually get Malik Nabers and Caleb Williams in the same class, much less Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., etc. 

Even so, the reason they are long-term investments more than short-term fixes is...

5. Bad Organizations Limit A Great Talent's Ceiling

Imagine if Caleb Williams had an offensive coordinator who did the following: 

• Used DJ Moore at his natural position of flanker. 
• Used Rome Odunze at split-end. 
• Ran a playbook that the offensive line could support by keeping Caleb Williams clean.
• Williams wasn't beaten up by the third quarter. 
• Defenses had to defend the quick passing game. 

These are all things Thomas Brown changed when the Bears fired Shane Waldron. Williams was QB20 in fantasy leagues under Shane Waldron. DJ Moore was WR32. Keenan Allen was WR73.

Under Thomas Brown, Williams is QB6. Moore is WR13, and Allen is WR9.

Lessons Learned/Validated: Bad organizational management puts multiple players in positions to lose.