The Top 10: Week 16 (10 Surprises of 2024)

The playoffs are here. Most of the film study is done. Even if you needed me to tell you that Sam Darnold looks like a league winner there's little most playoff teams without him can do about it. 

Instead, let's look back with the intent of looking ahead: 10 Surprises in 2024.

These players exceeded expectations -- sometimes lofty expectations -- and delivered value for rosters. This week, let's explore why they surprised us and how they might build on their emergence in 2025. 

No Cliff's Notes are necessary. 

1. WR Jauan Jennings, 49ers

When I first laid eyes on Jennings' game at Tennessee, I saw shades of Brandon Marshall. Jennings was physical, aggressive, and fearless attacking the ball, carrying the ball, and away from the ball. 

Jennings played a game suited for a receiver who weighed 218-225 pounds. When he showed up at Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl at 208 pounds, it was a disappointing revelation because, without the top speed, Jennings' physicality wasn't likely to translate to the NFL on the level of Marshall or A.J. Brown when that light. 

Four years later, Jennings has grown into one of the most reliable contributors to the 49ers' high-powered offense. The 20th-ranked PPR option heading into Monday night, Jennings has become an excellent zone receiver who can win the difficult plays over the middle and at the boundary. 

Brock Purdy buying time and putting himself in a position to either throw the ball away or find the WR working to the open zone. Jauan Jennings works open. pic.twitter.com/y86H2VNfIz

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 13, 2024

Are we back at Tennessee?

Jauan Jennings… pic.twitter.com/ADPVMI3OUl

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 23, 2024

Can Jennings build on this production? Theoretically, yes. He has Brock Purdy's trust and he fits well in the 49ers' offense.

Jennings doesn't have to be the primary option to be a great fit. His route running and physicality make him capable of exploiting weaknesses in coverage designed to stop George Kittle, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, or any speedy receiver with an outside game that poses an immediate and constant threat. 

Jennings has another year with the 49ers. If the 49ers don't take an out in the contract, so does Samuel. Aiyuk may not be back to his pre-injury form for at least half of the 2025 season. Ricky Pearsall or Jacob Cowing could pose threats to Jennings' role, but for now, Jennings is the best bet to deliver as the third or fourth option in the 49ers' passing game. 

That may not sound enticing for fantasy GMs but as long as Jennings is viewed as a late-round option in 2025, there's a good chance he'll outplay his value because of his fit in the offense, the trust Purdy has in him, and the likelihood Aiyuk isn't back to form early in the year. 

2024 may be Jennings' career year, but it doesn't mean you won't derive significant value in 2025. 

2. TE Jonnu Smith, Dolphins

I'd bet most analysts who had a strong ranking of Smith didn't have a compelling reason to regard Smith as the priority target ahead of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As shocking as it has been to see Smith as TE4 in PPR formats heading into Week 16, the 2023 season showed how this reality could unfold. 

As Arthur Smith's TE2 in Atlanta, Jonnu earned at least 9.5 points in 5 games in 2023 as Kyle Pitts' co-pilot. Why is 9.5 points significant? It's approximately the baseline for starter production last year and this year. 

Smith has always been a good runner after the catch. He can make you miss or run through defenders.

If Johnnu Smith continues emerging, he offers more YAC upside than D Walker and that’s saying something. #Titans pic.twitter.com/3KxMLgU6as

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2018

Jonnu Smith North-South vs the blitz pic.twitter.com/a61s9i3Bhk

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2023

Where he struggled was the catch-point. At FIU, Alfredo Brown's old stomping grounds, Smith made big plays but his hands weren't as elite as his athletic ability. Smith isn't the downfield vertical option with the contested catch ability of a primary receiver, but get him in space or on the move, and he's productive. 

Miami recognized the opportunity and they leveraged Smith's skills for a career year. Can Smith build on this in 2025? Yes, there are conditions. 

Mike McDaniels and his offense cannot leave Miami. If it does, Smith may not fit the new system. If Hill and Waddle return to form in 2025, then this year will have been Smith's career year. 

Like Jauan Jennings, Smith is capable of delivering strong weeks in the future. I'll be surprised if it's the primary plan again in 2025. Unlike Jennings, there will be more expectations for Smith in the fantasy community and there's a risk he's overvalued next year. 

3. RB Chuba Hubbard, Panthers 

Last month, the Panthers generated some consternation among football media when they signed Hubbard to an extension when their first-round pick, Jonathon Brooks, was poised to return to the field after tearing his ACL at Texas. Fast-forward to the present and Brooks has a second ACL tear in nearly 12 months. 

Hubbard earned his money as the most productive offensive skill option in Carolina this year. A speedster out of Oklahoma State who entered the league as a player prone to "all gas, no brakes" as a decision-maker, Hubbard had work to do. 

What's difficult to know about a young man with athletic talent is whether he'll do the work. To Hubbard's credit, he has. 

After Week 1 of 2023, it was obvious on film that Hubbard had become the superior back to free-agent prize Miles Sanders. I was never a big fan of Sanders as a decision-maker or his ball security, but it was still a sign of Hubbard's impressive growth. 

Chuba Hubbard with a mature, tight-crease run. pic.twitter.com/odm3XkFvLn

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2023

Hubbard only built on last year's success and has delivered a career year. With Jonathan Brooks' career as a starter a significant question mark, Hubbard is poised to continue his reign as the Panthers' lead runner in an offense that has found stability at quarterback. 

Hubbard will be worth his draft capital in 2025.

4. WR Malik Nabers, Giants

Nabers was the rookie I wanted early in my fantasy draft plans this year. This is the quick version of what I said about him as a target in Rounds 1-4 in August. 

"...Nabers is versatile, refined, and acrobatic. Yes, even with Daniel Jones."

The most bullet-proof wide receivers are multidimensional. Nabers was the best route runner in this excellent class. He can play multiple wide receiver spots. He wins the ball against tight coverage, and he's difficult to contain after the catch. 

Nabers offered everything you want from a wide receiver. It's not about how big or how fast -- the baseline athletic ability and physical traits to perform as a No.1 option on an NFL team are there. Once you know that, the skills become more important than the athletic ability. Getting granular with how much Nabers had as an athlete versus another receiver is a failure of prioritization. 

This happens too often. It happened with A.J. Brown in Tennessee and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota.

Sure, they're good athletes, but their quarterback situation and/or their role in the offense won't earn enough support for significant fantasy production. 

I told my RSP Post-Draft readers each time that these two receivers had a much better opportunity to deliver top rookie production at the position than credited among the football media. Why? Like Nabers, Brown and Jefferson could play multiple roles, win the ball against tight coverage, earn yards after the catch, and run great routes. 

The more of those things a receiver can do from that list, the higher the odds that the quality of a quarterback isn't as significant of a factor. The Rome Odunze Corollary to that rule is when the offense has multiple veteran starters and poor offensive play-calling and design, which the Chicago Bears had for most of the season. 

Although Nabers didn't surprise me as the producer most in the fantasy world thought Marvin Harrison Jr. would be, Nabers is sustaining top-10 production at his position with Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle in the mix. 

As the Giants figure out a few things, expect Nabers to have a top-five ceiling. Until, then, a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 is still excellent, given the circumstances. 

5. RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants

PPR's RB19 since Week 8, Tracy has surprised me with his decision-making maturity. 

Tyrone Tracy Jr. with an excellent run.

Looks like a big crease. It is a big crease. But watch how Tracy manipulates the safety at the last moment before hitting that crease. #Giants pic.twitter.com/yjkS0F3TXV

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2024

Tyrone Tracy Jr. with another good press--this time on Duo--to set up a 27-yard run.#NYGiants pic.twitter.com/Lnjom6F7LI

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024

Tracy reminded me of Kenyan Drake when watching his film at Purdue -- a physical talent, but a remedial decision-maker who would need ramp-up time on par with Chuba Hubbard before he became an impact player. I thought the training camp buzz was a false positive like Tank Bigsby's in 2023.

Not so. Tracy has proven a quick study at the position. There's a strong chance he sustains fantasy RB2 value in 2025 and potentially builds on it with another good offseason.