The Top 10: Week 15

The playoffs are here. Most of the film study is done. Even if you needed me to tell you that Sam Darnold looks like a league winner there's little most playoff teams without him can do about it. 

Instead, let's look ahead. This week: 10 players poised to emerge in 2025.

Many of these players are reserves. Some are starters. A few have shown signs of emerging. All are worthy of your consideration in dynasty leagues and monitoring this offseason for redraft. 

No Cliff's Notes are necessary. 

1. QB Caleb Williams, Bears

After witnessing Thomas Brown's changes to the Chicago Bears offense, I told you heading into Week 12 that Williams is a player worth counting on to the tune of at least 17.6 fantasy points per game and more likely 18-20 points per game if you project a modest increase in touchdowns. 

Since Brown's changes in Week 11, Williams is QB7 and averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game -- knocking on top-five production as projected. Mind Williams is doing this with makeshift changes from an interim coach and against the likes of the Lions, 49ers, and Vikings. 

Now, imagine Williams getting an entire offseason with these developments: 

• D.J. Moore is no longer playing out of position as a split end. 
• The Bears upgrade its offensive line through free agency and the draft. 
• Rome Odunze gets moved to split-end, where he belongs. 
• The Bears' play-caller isn't rolling dice to choose plays but has a coherent plan. 

Williams is delivering borderline top-five production against strong defenses because the coaching staff is leveraging the strengths of its talent while minimizing its weaknesses. Novel concept, I realize, but it's amazing how few teams focus on quarterback development. 

A contact of mine shared the following with me a few weeks ago. 

"NFL scheme can be good and coaches not have a clue how to coach can be true at the same time. The NFL is a broken league. No one actually teaches rookie QBs how to do anything. Like nothing."

The next thing he sent me was a photograph of 32 NFL logos. 

The teams with question marks are teams he wasn't familiar with the staff's work with quarterbacks. The teams he circled had at least a minimal amount of developmental planning for the position. The crossed-out teams offer nothing of substance. 

As I've written in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's introductory chapter on quarterback play for years, the NFL's idea for quarterback development resembles the John Wayne School of Swimming for Boys. 

I shared pre-draft that Caleb Williams was not only the most talented quarterback in the class but the one most capable of withstanding the manure-matinee a bad organization could place him as a rookie. The Bears gave Williams a stiff test but have appeared to figure out how not to drown its young quarterback. 

I'm not expecting the Bears organization to deliver miracles in 2025, but picking the right quarterback can cover up a lot of messes. 

Shane Waldron was lighting the team on fire. Brown at least knew he should hide the matches while he spent time dealing with the spilled gas cans.

Expect Williams to deliver top-12 fantasy production next year as his baseline value with the potential for top-five value. We're seeing it already. There's no reason it shouldn't continue. 

By the Way...Get Your 2025 Rookie Scouting Portfolio!

The pre-order discount period for the 2025 Rookie Scouting Portfolio pre-draft/post-draft publication -- now entering its 20th season -- is going on until December 21st at 11:59 pm. You can get the RSP for $19.95 during this period. 

If you, like many happy subscribers, prefer to pay the full price of $21.95, you can do so beginning December 22nd. Go here to order. You can use PayPal or Stripe. 

Since 2012, the RSP has donated a percentage of its sales to Darkness to Light. 

“Darkness to Light is a national organization and initiative. Our mission is to empower people to prevent child sexual abuse. Darkness to Light’s public awareness campaign seeks to raise awareness of the prevalence and consequences of child sexual abuse.”

2. WR Rome Odunze, Chicago

Long-time Footballguys subscriber Jacob Blackburn posed a question about Odunze last week. I'm going to paraphrase...

I know that the Bears' coaching, offensive line, and quarterback play are all reasons why Odunze has disappointed in fantasy football this year, but is there another reason we can isolate that has to do with Odunze?  I don't study football, but from casual viewing, it doesn't appear that Odunze isn't getting much separation. 

A person on social media reading this message mentioned the theory that Michael Penix Jr. was the difference, citing the lack of NFL production from all three rookie receivers from Washington as his central argument. I'm not buying that, either. It's drawing a conclusion based on superficial evidence.

I think the three reasons Jacob cited to begin the question carry the vast majority of weight with Odunze's lack of production. At least Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey had cogent offensive schemes with playcalling that have been more logical than nonsensical. 

This quartet also didn't have a teammate at their position playing out of position (DJ Moore) and play calls that didn't match what the offensive line was capable of executing. Each factor is a compounding issue. 

It's also worth noting that Moore and Allen were most often the primary reads in the Bears' offense under Waldron. Nabers, Harrison, Thomas, and McConkey were most often the primary reads in their offense. 

Sometimes, we don't need to go looking any deeper than what's most apparent. Odunze is not the problem. I studied him the week before the Waldron firing, and he was playing well and a good buy-low in dynasty. 

As a casual viewer, it's easy to look at a player who is rarely the primary read and only see plays where the receiver isn't earning separation. As you'll see in the link above, Odunze's timing routes are refined, and his work in zone coverage displays strong conceptual acumen for the game. As you'll see below, his two-touchdown game against the 49ers isn't coming from easy plays. 

Positive from yesterday

Rome Odunze + Caleb Williams is progressing every week.

?pic.twitter.com/bajJR5ksg9

— Just Another Year Chicago: Bears (@JAYChi_Bears) December 9, 2024

? ROOOOOME ODUUUUUNZE

?: #CHIvsSF on FOX pic.twitter.com/G3Ubg4mT0k

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 8, 2024

Look for Chicago to make Odunze the split end in its 2025 offense and move Moore to flanker. I think we'll see 800-1,000 yards from Odunze next year, and that's the low side of the projection. 

3. RB Kendre Miller, Saints

Kendre Miller earned a grade on the cusp of an instant starter in the 2023 RSP. Kendre reminded me of Lamar Miller, a smooth and sudden runner who could have been a top-three prospect at the position in many other classes. 

Kendre Miller’s style reminds of another RB with the same last name. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/RMeStQ1zY3

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) January 19, 2023

A good zone runner, Kendre is in a Klint Kubiak scheme that fits well with his skills. He's one of those options who has the talent to become a do-it-all player in terms of speed, power, agility, and the passing game. 

Welcome back, Kendre Miller!

The former #TCU star RB found the endzone for the @Saints during a win against the New York Giants!

pic.twitter.com/WIhvGPeQcc

— Frogs O’ War (@FrogsOWar) December 9, 2024

Kendre Miller stays on his feet for the first down pic.twitter.com/G23jig3rD2

— Saints Film Room (@SaintsFilmRoom) December 8, 2024

Alvin Kamara is 29 years old and the No.3 fantasy RB after 13 games, logging 287 touches. He's at least on his way to his fourth-best season in his eight-year career. Mark Ingram II played eight years for the Saints and delivered his second-best season as a pro in Year Nine with the Ravens. There is life after 30 for running backs, and workload isn't the factor you think it is. 

What will factor is the team's opinion of Miller, which was a high one when they drafted him. Miller appears poised to be a backfield complement to Kamara in 2025. If the Saints take the potential out that they have with his contract, Miller could be the main man. Either way, Miller's future looks promising. 

4. RB Sincere McCormick, Raiders

McCormick continues to display the decisiveness, the contact balance, and the burst that earned him the starter volume for the Raiders during the past two weeks. Is he a special back? Not that I've seen. 

Is he earning a shot to stick with the Raiders and compete for a contributing role in 2025? As long as Antonio Pierce remains the Raiders' coach, yes. 

Will the Raiders draft a rookie from what looks like a good 2025 class who could render McCormick a valued backup or role player? Probably. 

Availability and reliability matter, and those are two things McCormick could provide that the rest of the depth chart and a rookie might not. McCormick may be the weakest candidate on this list, but he qualifies. 

5. QB Bryce Young, Panthers

Fantasy football's QB32 this year, Young has been QB23 since returning to the lineup in Week 7. While he hasn't delivered the box score value like Caleb Williams in recent weeks, Young has kept his team in games with a lot less. When you watch Young's film, it's impressive. 

He has repeatedly thrown clutch dimes to Xavier Legette that the rookie has dropped in recent weeks. Much like Anthony Richardson, Young's teammates have let him down and dropped his legitimate fantasy upside. 

I know there's love for Diontae Johnson out there among fantasy analysts, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are the class organization for real players. If the Steelers don't want you anymore, it's a bad sign. The Panthers are probably better off without him, and them cutting back quickly is something a lot of fans wished their bad teams would do. 

It won't shock me if a good veteran receiver decides Carolina has itself a pretty good little quarterback, and we see that pretty good little quarterback post low-end starter numbers in 2025.