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The Top 10: Week 14

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 14
By Matt Waldman, December 3, 2024

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

© Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images the top 10

The playoffs are here. Most of the film study is done. Time for actionable direction based on past insights. No Cliff's Notes are necessary. 

1. Sincere McCormick Is Worth Roster Consideration

Alexander Mattison will be back soon. Zamir White could follow. The Raiders are awful. It might be time for Las Vegas to take an extended look at selected talents who've been on their bench and practice squad. 

McCormick qualifies. When watching his tape, four things stood out.

1) McCormick demonstrated the expertise to balance patience with decisiveness based on the scheme and the development of the play. 

2) McCormick always had good footwork and some knowledge of pressing creases, but he was more suited for gap plays like Counter and Duo than zone blocking. 

3) McCormick demonstrated enough acceleration to take the corner on well-blocked perimeter plays, which makes him versatile enough for the Raiders' ground game. 

4) McCormick has the contact balance to work through hits between the tackles when he has a runway downhill. The first play against the Chiefs made that evident. 

If you need a running back, McCormick has a good enough floor to split touches with Mattison for the rest of the season. His ceiling? He could earn the lead role if the Raiders decide to rest since their fate is already decided. 

I wouldn't even worry about matchups. McCormick shined against the Chiefs -- the stingiest run defense to fantasy backs. The Saints and Jaguars are ahead, keeping McCormick on your bench as a just-in-case option is a worthwhile investment for teams that have the luxury. 

2. Anthony Richardson Trusts Alec Pierce (So Should You)

Pierce is going to drop passes. It is one of the things Indianapolis Colts receivers do best this year. It has contributed to the weekly analysis of Richardson's game that's stuck in a loop: 

  • Richardson's box score is worse than his tape. 
  • Richardson makes 1-2 foolish/risky throws per game that get the casual fan claiming "bust."
  • Richardson would be a top-12 fantasy option if his receivers didn't drop so many catchable passes. 
  • The Colts are 5-4 under Richardson this year and 3 of their losses are by 6 points or less. 

At the beginning of the season, Richardson told the CBS broadcast crew that the public had written off Pierce, but he hadn't. We've seen that through the ups and downs of 2024, Richardson hasn't shied away from Pierce. 

The third-year receiver may rank third in targets with 54, but he leads in yardage (645), touchdowns (5), and yards per reception (22.2) if you don't count Ashton Dulin who only has 8 targets and 2 catches all year. 

If your league starts at least four receivers or you're desperate for a third receiver, Pierce offers you a big-play ceiling in every game. He's only had less than four targets in five games and his range is generally within 4-7 targets.

The Broncos, Titans, and Giants aren't the most welcoming schedule for a Pierce, but Pierce has generated big plays against the Bills, Jets, and Bears - pass defenses on par with the Broncos and Titans. 

Pierce is a frustrating weekly play, but he's the player on the Colts most likely to generate a 150-yard and multiple-touchdown box score in any contest. 

3. Don't Be Shy about KaVontae Turpin

Turpin gets the Bengals, Panthers, and Buccaneers. This is a favorable schedule for a big-play receiver who is the fastest ballcarrier in the league this year. 

I can confirm that Turpin has promise as a route runner. 

Combine that with intelligent scheming to generate coverage mismatches, and Turpin is another Pierce-like option that could generate a huge box score value in any given week. 

Again, we're talking about players you can add at a low cost as a contingency plan if things get desperate in the playoffs. I could tell you about Jordan Mason (as I did before the season) again, but we're crossing into the realm of obvious. 

4. Russell Wilson Trusts Calvin Austin III

I've shared this repeatedly in recent weeks but with Austin suffering a head injury this weekend after scoring on the Bengals, some GMs might be tempted to drop Austin for the next hot waiver pickup. If that's the case, and you have the luxury, add him. 

Here are three reasons why: 

  1. Wilson targets Austin on third and long for big plays. 
  2. Wilson targets Austin as the shot-play option from the slot where matchups favor Austin.
  3. Wilson loves throwing the post to Austin in the end zone against coverages Pittsburgh faces every week.

Three of the Steelers' next four matchups are against defenses that are among the most 15 generous to fantasy wide receiver production in the league -- Baltimore (1), Cleveland (5), and Kansas City (15).

The Eagles are 4th in the stinginess factor to the position, but their biggest individual outputs to receivers this year is an indicator that Austin could deliver once he's through concussion protocol. 

  • Cooper Kupp 12 points (27-yard TD from the slot)
  • Mike Evans 15.4 points (41 yards and a TD from the slot)
  • Jayden Reed 29.1 points (126 yards and a TD from the slot and tight in trips)
  • Chris Olave 14.6 points (13-yard TD from tight in trips)
  • Darnell Mooney 14.8 points (41-yard TD from the slot)

Like these five receivers, Austin earns a lot of deep targets from the slot and the offense moves him inside and outside. The player, the schedule, the role in the offense, and the quarterback are all reasons to make the move. He's a low-end starter when healthy. 

5. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 2023 Demarcus Robinson?

Is his touchdown rate likely sustainable? It wasn't four weeks ago, but here we are. It's theoretically possible to roll snake eyes six straight times. If you look at it that way, Westbrook-Ikhine's likelihood of continuing his hot streak is more probable. 

Not exactly the rationale you're seeking, I realize. How's this? Tennessee faces the Bengals, Colts, and two throwdowns with the Jaguars in the final four weeks. 

In the past three weeks, Westbrook-Ikhine has averaged 6.67 targets. His usage is increasing. Does it mean defenses will pay more attention? Likely, but it's not like his touchdowns are the result of busted coverages. 

He has won against zone coverages, man-to-man, inside, outside, double moves, the red zone, and shot plays. He has blown past safeties who have underestimated his speed on the outside and he has won with route adjustments. 

Westbrook-Ikhine is especially good in the red zone. 

Westbrook-Ikhine might be this year's Demarcus Robinson for the playoffs. 

6. Chris Brooks: Continue Monitoring

The guy can play. Yes, it's becoming a meme for my work, but the Packers are taking notice and so is the media that covers him. 

If Josh Jacobs gets hurt he might get the better end of the split between him and Emanuel Wilson. If the Packers can't improve their chances to rise in the playoff seeding, Brooks could earn more playing time by Week 16. 

MarShawn Lloyd is a fumbler, a rookie, and has maturing to do as a processor. Perhaps he gets the opportunity to fail upward due to draft capital, but I think Brooks has made enough of an impression that he could keep Lloyd on the bench until next year. Monitor him. 

7. Jayden Reed: Still Underrated

It's easy to look at Reed's 44 targets and his competition for targets and conclude Reed is not a stable high-end fantasy starter. It's wiser to look at Reed's 57 touches from scrimmage (13 rushing attempts) and add that to the target equation.

A rush attempt may not give you the automatic point in PPR, but his 128 yards and a touchdown from those 13 attempts are almost compensating. 

Do you know who else had lower reception and passing yardage totals but delivered on the ground as a borderline WR1 in recent years? Deebo Samuel Sr.. 

Samuel averaged 16.2 fantasy points per week last year. Reed averages 14 in 2024. Samuel is a better runner. Reed is a better route runner and more versatile in the passing game. 

Samuel at his best may be a BMW, but Reed is no worse than a Lexus. Stop worrying about him if you simply look at the trendy utilization data and inconsistency. The film backs up his value. 

8. Stash Noah Gray? 

For the past three weeks, Gray has averaged 5 targets, 4 catches, 49 yards, and 1.33 scores. He has two other games before this streak with at least four targets and 40 yards. 

Those three teams -- the Bills (26), Panthers (1), and Raiders (3) -- are on the extreme ends of the generosity spectrum to fantasy tight ends. Gray's pair of two-TD games came against the Bills and Panthers, so ease of schedule isn't the greatest factor in this equation. 

The reasons Gray is earning more production are his versatility in alignments and the alignments forcing opposing defenses to prioritize Travis Kelce and/or Xavier Worthy first.

This allows Gray strong matchups that are out of position to handle his routes when assigned man-to-man or opens big holes in zones because Gray's teammates are running defenders out of the picture. 

Gray faces the Chargers, Browns, Texans, and Steelers. The Texans and Steelers are decent units that have given up production to two-tight-end sets that could open the door for Gray during the fantasy playoffs. 

He's a risky start, but if you're hurting at tight end, there's some schematic logic and success that could go your way. 

9. Will We See Michael Penix Jr. Soon? 

The short answer: No. The longer answer: If the Falcons are eliminated from the playoffs, yes. Kirk Cousins hasn't played well in recent weeks, but there is no way Atlanta will turn to Penix if still in contention. 

Penix has the promise to become a franchise option. He also hasn't had extended playing time.

There's little NFL experience with countering defensive adjustments and disguises. There's zero NFL experience with route adjustments. Atlanta won't be using him unless Cousins suffers an injury. 

The fine print on this analysis is that Atlanta is 6-6. If they lose to Minnesota and Las Vegas, they could be out of the playoff picture. Penix could start against the Giants and Commanders -- good matchups for a rookie. 

Penix is a preemptive hedge if you are in a SuperFlex format and want a No.3 with a high ceiling. He's also a preemptive hedge if you have the luxury to prepare for potential disaster striking your QB lineup. He's a must-add if you have to wait for disaster to strike. 

Penix could deliver top-12 fantasy production in any given week, but consider him a mid-range QB2 as his baseline value. 

10. What to Do with Kareem Hunt? 

Keep him unless you have a massive hole in your lineup and need to part ways with a non-starter and you have better values among your reserves. I was wrong about Hunt remaining viable with Isaiah Pacheco returning. I thought the Chiefs would ease Pacheco into the lineup and still give Hunt the majority of the looks. 

Pacheco looks good enough that Hunt becomes a change of pace/situational option in the Kansas City offense. It would be unwise to drop Hunt. 

Players returning from multi-week injuries are often in good physical shape but not in game shape. There's a difference and that difference increases the chances of a compensatory injury -- a muscle pull or mild sprain -- that could knock Pacheco out of the line for 1-3 weeks if it occurs. 

Hang onto the proven commodity of Hunt if you can. 

Good luck! 

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Tags top 10 Matt Waldman week 14 season long Dynasty nfl draft rookies Anthony Richardson Alec Pierce Calvin Austin III Sincere McCormick Nick Westbrook-Ikhine KaVontae Turpin

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