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The Top 10: Week 11

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 11
By Matt Waldman, November 12, 2024

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

© Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images the-top-10

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Apologies to Justin Jefferson, but Ja'Marr Chase is the best WR and a foundational dynasty piece. 
  2. Joe Burrow is also a foundational building block in dynasty leagues and arguably the best NFL QB.
  3. Russell Wilson and Mike Williams are a perfect match, and the Steelers are the AFC's dark horse. 
  4. Lamar Jackson's pass placement is only getting better, and it makes him elite. 
  5. Daniel Jones was miserly with his dimes, and that could make Malik Nabers a "Lock" to explode.
  6. What makes Chase Brown promising other than his speed? His pad level. It's vital to RB evaluation. 
  7. What makes Christian McCaffrey special? His footwork as a runner and especially as a route runner. 
  8. George Kittle's attack of the ball and deceleration are elite facets of his game. 
  9. The Lions were built to be resilient, and it's honoring the emotion within the game. 
  10. Bo Nix's RSP pre-draft/post-draft scouting report.

1. Ja'Marr Chase Is the Best WR in the NFL

Apologies to Justin Jefferson, who belongs in the conversation, but I still believe Chase is the best wide receiver in the NFL. Jefferson and Chase are elite route runners who are comfortable with physical play at the catch point and as ball carriers.

Both possess vertical speed and aerial grace. Chase makes it look easy. 

And, both are versatile enough to deliver as flankers, split ends, and slot options. Chase is just a little faster and stronger.

His open-field work strikes more fear in opposing defenses -- as evidenced by Chase having three of the top-six yardage performances in the NFL during the past 10 years (credit Bob Harris for that pull). 

Chase is the more likely of the two to take a slant and flip the field, blowing by third-level defenders with an angle. He's not as fast as Tyreek Hill, but he's stronger, a better route runner, and great at integrating his power, speed, grace, and precision into his game.

He's also 24 years old and could have another 6-8 seasons where his ceiling of potential remains inside the top 12 at his position. Jefferson is a year older, his quarterback situation is cloudier, and it limits his touchdown potential. 

Chase is arguably dynasty player No.1 in most formats. This isn't stunning news, but last Thursday should have served as a reminder. 

2. Joe Burrow Is in the Conversation as the top QB 

While I'd probably join the herd and clamor for Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson if I owned an NFL franchise and the league had a massive reset draft to shuffle the deck, if Burrow fell to me after this duo, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and perhaps even Jayden Daniels and Justin Herbert -- depending on who was trying too hard to outsmart themselves -- I'd be dancing in my draft room. 

Burrow, Jackson, and Mahomes are among the best in football at maneuvering in the pocket. I'd put Burrow and Mahomes above the rest at feeling blindside pressure, finding escape hatches, and throwing on the move with touch and placement. 

Burrow also has elite anticipation, processing speed, and processing accuracy. He's just mobile enough to buy time, but he understands how to fight in the pocket before he flees it.

This makes Burrow more dangerous than most of the mobile quarterbacks because he doesn't force receivers to re-route as often -- delivering the ball while they are still breaking into open space. Burrow also maneuvers in a way where he doesn't destroy the continuity of the pocket when it isn't broken. 

Kyler Murray often kills the entire continuity of the pocket when all he had to do was avoid one broken area. The same was true with Baker Mayfield's game in Cleveland. 

Burrow is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, but because he's not a top yardage-getter as a runner, he's not placed in this category. That's a mistake. 

He should also have another 8-10 years of peak production -- likely with Chase as his primary receiver. As long as Chase remains a Bengal, Burrow will have the core talent to deliver fantasy starter value. 

3. Russell Wilson and Mike Williams: Perfect Match

Wilson is a moon-ball specialist in the vertical game. Williams is a contested-catch receiver who uses his height, length, size, and vertical skill to win above the rim.

The Steelers already had this with George Pickens.

Giving Wilson a second option who can work the opposite side of the field places defenses in a specific bind that plays into Pittsburgh's offensive strengths. As you can see above, whenever the opponent plays Cover 1 -- man-to-man coverage with a single-high safety -- Wilson will attack the man-to-man coverage if the safety is not shading on that side. 

Add Williams to the equation and a safety must pick their poise. Eventually, we may see more Cover 2 -- two safeties -- or Cover 4 -- two safeties and zone coverage with man-to-man principles. When defenses shift to these coverages, they are run-friendly looks and the Steelers have the horses in Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and Cordarrelle Patterson to run over opponents. 

If the Steelers can get the most from Williams, Pittsburgh can use even more two-tight-end sets that can win against a variety of coverages and make it harder for opponents to disguise them. It may not make Wilson a top fantasy passer at year's end, but he'll be helping everyone else.

Wilson will be efficient, his receivers will author big plays, and the ground game will remain stable. 

4. Lamar Jackson's Pass Placement 

It's nice to see that the rest of the world is catching up to Lamar Jackson's talent. It only took two MVPs, a contract renegotiation, and a negotiation for a friendlier aerial scheme, but here we are. 

Although I'll argue with anyone that Jackson's pocket management and middle-of-the-field accuracy were always strong, his pass placement is only getting better. 

Jackson, like Burrow, fights in the pocket first before he flees. When he flees, he rarely forces receivers to re-route more than once. 

Although he's a threat for his athletic ability to slow as he reaches his mid-thirties, Jackson's pocket game and diagnostic skills are elite and it could give him a longer career than many scouts forecasted. Although I was recommending Jackson from the jump as a dynasty piece, I'd still recommend him as a foundational player despite the potential for age to rob him of his rushing skills as the years unfold. 

5. Daniel Jones Is No Lock (Pun Intended) to Start

Danny Dimes was downright miserly on Sunday, and it wasn't the first week he has missed open reads. 

It may be his last as a starter in New York. Brian Daboll didn't guarantee Jones would remain the starter, which is a watershed breakthrough for an organization that has spent six years with Jones as its hopeful franchise option and could have cut it short at least two years ago.

Malik Nabers GMs should celebrate this possibility -- as you can see above. Nabers knew from the beginning that the Giants didn't have a franchise-caliber starter in Jones before New York drafted him. Drew Lock may not be the long-term answer, but he's a more intriguing option for Nabers. 

These are things I've noticed about Lock over the years, and it's why I projected Lock to take over for Jones at some point during the 2024 season.

We may be on the brink of that happening and I believe it will make the Giants a more dangerous vertical team. After the bye week, the Giants face a slew of weak pass defenses (level of generosity in parenthesis) -- Tampa (1), Dallas (4), Baltimore (2), Atlanta (8), and Indianapolis (6) -- where Lock could benefit. 

So could Jones, but these units have scouted Jones in this offense for weeks. They haven't seen Lock and how the Giants may use him differently from Jones as well as how Lock naturally operates differently. 

6. Chase Brown's Pad Level

Pad level is a fundamental skill for effective running between the tackles. Because defenses have shifted to more Cover 2, the inside running game matches up well against it. 

A running back's pad level can be the difference with a variety of productive expectations at the position:

  • Running through the reaches of box defenders. 
  • Winning collisions.
  • Falling forward through contact and extending for extra yards. 
  • Maximizing their forward lean to pull defenders forward. 
  • Minimizing surface level for defenders to grab them and the ball.

Brown demonstrates a lot of this on this run. 

There are great exceptions -- Eric Dickerson tops the list -- but backs that run with high pad level are better off in space unless they possess great timing with their pads at the point of contact, possess great speed, and/or have excellent bend with their knees and hips.

David Montgomery is an example of a back with excellent bend with their knees and hips. 

These skills are why I think Brown has a future as the Bengals' lead back. If he doesn't, Khalil Herbert will be worthwhile as a hedge.

7. Christian McCaffrey's Route Running 

McCaffrey has great footwork as a runner. One of the reasons scouts said McCaffrey had what it takes to become a slot receiver is his footwork. These two routes against the Buccaneers highlight this skill. 

It's not just the knowledge of the footwork, but it's the artful execution and combinations McCaffrey creates with these types of footwork based on the coverage and the route. It also bleeds into his work between the tackles, and it's why he's RB1. 

8. George Kittle's Attack and Deceleration 

So many things make Kittle an elite tight end. Let's focus on his pass-catching and ball-carrying. These two skills and route-running are what matters for fantasy production. 

This catch is a great illustration of the value receivers get from using their fingertips to attack the ball. 

A lot of drops that you'll watch come from the ball striking the receiver's fingers and palms. The recoil off these surfaces is like throwing a football into a wall. The fingertips are a remarkable product of human engineering. 

The most underrated aspect of carrying the football is coming to a stop -- decelerating -- at an elite rate of speed and control. The play below is an example of a transition from a downhill path to a path that angles inside. Kittle's ability to make this transition with three quick steps sets up the runway for additional yardage. 

It also sets up the momentum generated to win with power and contact balance. Kittle doesn't carry these defenders at the end of the run if he doesn't create the runway to build the momentum. 

These two skills alone set Kittle apart from 85-90 percent of the tight ends in the NFL.

9. Detroit Lions: Built to be Resilient

A lot of the analytical-minded NFL writers covering football pounced on Dan Campbell's introductory presser as the new head coach of the Detroit Lions in 2021.

They scoffed at the reference to biting kneecaps, kicking in teeth, and smiling back at opponents who knocked them down. They thought the joke was on this former player -- in their minds, likely a dumb jock who conjured up bro-down phraseology to appeal to the city of Detroit -- who lacked the wherewithal to make good on his promise. 

They associated it with former Lions coaches who got attention and love for riding motorcycles or listening to metal. They also associated it with emotion in football, and many of these analytically minded writers don't believe that emotion is a legitimate part of the game. 

They don't believe momentum exists. It's why they only see a fraction of the game. And if you don't believe in momentum, you can't address it when it's working against you. 

You can't train for it. You can't find moments in practice where you gather your team and show them when and how the moments passed them by. You can't build an environment that begins with losing a ton of close-fought games and ends with an NFC Championship appearance. 

Why? Deny Emotion and You Only See A Fraction of the Game

Dan Campbell sees the entire game. He believes momentum exists. He knows how to address it when it's going against them.

He did it at halftime against the Texans. He described the blueprint to begin the third quarter to NBC's sideline reporter and his team executed it to the letter. 

What Campbell shared wasn't bro code b.s. It sounds like it, but it's emotional intelligence. 

Who's laughing now? 

10. Bo Nix's Pre-Draft RSP Scouting Report

Nix is the No. 6 option since Week 6 -- Jayden Daniels is 12th. During this span, Nix has 8 touchdowns to Daniels' 5. Nix's completion percentage is 65.4, and Daniels' is 60.3. Nix has also thrown for 90 more yards than Daniels and run for seven more on only two more carries.  

He's the most productive rookie quarterback in the NFL since Week 6 and 9th overall among fantasy quarterbacks when including the entire season. Daniels has slipped to 6th overall. 

What makes Nix good? It's not a wealth of receiving talent. Courtland Sutton is an ideal WR2 for most NFL teams masquerading as a primary option. The rest of their talent are rookies, second-year players who haven't emerged, and journeymen. 

Is Nix's value a reflection of an easy schedule? Not really. Let's compare Nix and Daniels' schedules by their fantasy production and the generosity of the opponents to fantasy quarterback points. The lower the number, the more generous the defense. 

Nix vs. Daniels

NixGenerosityFptsDanielsGenerosityFpts
Sea1716.4TB130
PIT3014.8NYG1415.7
TB121.5CIN530.6
NYJ277.3ARI1626.4
LV1125.2CLE2124.1
LAC2524.9BAL223.7
NO2215.7CAR*75.3
CAR732.6CHI3125.5
BAL214.8NYG1422
KC1218.3PIT3010.6
Avg15.419.15Avg14.118.3

*The Commanders routed the Panthers early and subbed Marcus Mariota for Daniels. 

Daniels would have had a higher points-per-game average if the Carolina game was a contest, but you can see that Nix's schedule of opponents and production are comparable. This data isn't something I'd take too seriously, but it paints a basic picture that dispels the narratives that make them seem far apart as talents.

We may see one outdistance the other over the next 2-3 seasons, but right now, Nix is better than the press clippings. 

Nix was my QB3 in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio pre-draft publication. I compared him to an aspiring Matt Ryan as a field general and a decision-maker but with Mitchell Trubisky's underrated mobility. I also shared that Sean Payton's offense would be a good immediate fit for Nix. 

You can read the full scouting report here. 

Good luck, and see you next week. 

 

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Tags top 10 Week 11 Matt Waldman Dynasty season long Russell Wilson Mike Williams Chase Brown Lamar Jackson Ja'Marr Chase Joe Burrow Detroit Lions George Kittle Christian McCaffrey Daniel Jones Malik Nabers

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