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The Top 10: Week 9

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 9
By Matt Waldman, October 29, 2024

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images the-top-10

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Jameis Winston's performance against the Ravens is a promising sign for the Browns' passing game.
  2. Expect a boost with Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman's production. 
  3. David Njoku is earning targets from Winston he largely hasn't seen in the NFL. 
  4. The Anthony Richardson panic is at full bore. I remind you not to panic. 
  5. Ladd McConkey just might meet my lofty preseason predictions, and his red zone play is the reason. 
  6. Was Caleb Williams bad in Week 8? Is he a bad prospect? The answer to the second question (no) is all that matters. 
  7. Cade Otton has emerged from his underrated/overlooked label in recent weeks. 
  8. Jalen McMillan delivered a perfect example of the hidden WR game the fantasy community overlooks. 
  9. Justin Jefferson delivered a clinic on attacking the football, and it's why he's an elite fantasy option. 
  10. Bo Nix has been the No.3 fantasy QB in October the Panthers defense was the only true pushover. 

1. Jameis Winston Will Resuscitate the Browns 

Yes, you heard that right. Winston may not revive Cleveland's playoff hopes, but the Deshaun Watson albatross is no longer a daily distraction to bear. As mentioned last week, Winston maximizes the potential of the Cleveland offense better than Watson. He will revive the offense. 

Winston is a better drop-back passer. When a quarterback works under center, running backs have it easier between the tackles because it's easier to read the line of scrimmage. Working under center also makes the play-action game more believable. 

When you have a more effective ground game coupled with a more believable play-action game, your passing game earns more man-to-man coverage to fill the box and stop the run. The play-action game also forces coverage to reveal its true intentions faster and this gives the quarterback more time to diagnose solutions. 

In addition to enhanced opportunities to read the field and earn advantageous coverage looks as a quarterback with a good game from center, Winston is also more adept at spreading the ball around the offense. 

Four receivers had more than 60 yards in this game--Cedric Tillman (99 and 2 TDs), Elijah Moore (85), Jerry Jeudy (79), and David Njoku (61 and a TD). The Ravens are the third most generous passing defense for fantasy quarterback production this year, but they have also faced Patrick Mahomes II, Dak Prescott (when the Cowboys were healthy), Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, and Baker Mayfield. 

That's a good collection of offenses. Winston elevated this Cleveland offense to look like they were on par with the best in the league. 

The most notable facet of Winston's game at this stage of his career is his improvement with pocket management, and what underscores it is his refined footwork. At FSU and Tampa Bay, Winston's drops and pocket movement were slow and sloppy.

His feet lagged behind his mind, and his body was out of alignment with processes that needed efficient movement. These behaviors were often the root cause of some of his worst decisions and sloppiest execution. 

Winston has been working on these issues since he left the Buccaneers, and there was improvement as a Saint. We may see occasional lapses with old behaviors, but Sunday's highlights reveal these lessons are mostly ingrained in his game. 

Moore's perimeter routes were some of the cleanest I saw this weekend. 

2. Expect a Boost with Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman

Expect Moore and Tillman to lead the way with this wide receiving corps as fantasy producers. Tillman's targets are coming on a small route tree of slants and in-breaking targets so we may see more inconsistency with production than with Moore, who Winston targeted on a wide variety of routes. Consider this duo the No.2 and No.3 options in the Browns' passing game.

Tillman may be the most overrated commodity of the two due to his size, speed, and utilization data. If looking at the type of routes targeted, Moore might have the greater versatility. Defenses may have a more difficult time completely shutting down Moore's role in the offense. 

3. Something Exciting and New for David Njoku

David Njoku may have had the fourth-best box score value on Sunday, but he's still the safest fantasy option on the team. There was also a new development with Njoku that I didn't see from him before as a Brown: Contested targets in tight windows. 

Njoku has always been the athlete you'd expect to see earn contested targets where he could win the ball from defenders. Winston was the first quarterback I remember seeing target Njoku this way.

If that's the case, Njoku may remain the safest and most productive option in the Browns' revamped passing game under Winston. 

4. Anthony Richardson Panic Is at Full Bore. Don't Panic.

I'm sure you've heard about Richardson's 10/32 box score and his cumulative 10-game completion rate. There's also the brutal criticism of Richardson asking out of the game in the third quarter because he was tired. 

Combine these two factors, his injuries, and Joe Flacco's performance in relief, and the Colts staff refused to give a definitive answer about Richardson remaining the starter in Week 9. The Anthony Richardson panic is in full bore. 

Don't panic. 

If you're a redraft player with Richardson, you had to find a suitable starter weeks ago while Richardson was hurt. Winston and/or Flacco are on many waiver wires so there should be no problem getting reasonable production. 

Only an average of 2.8 points per game separates the No.11 and the No.20 option in fantasy points per game at the position. In most leagues, you should have little problem finding serviceable play. 

If you're a dynasty player, buy into Richardson. Even if he's benched. Richardson is not JaMarcus Russell or Zach Wilson. He's a thoughtful player with a legitimate work ethic, superhuman athletic ability, and budding skills who lacks experience. 

As mentioned last week, Richardson's first nine games of production are similar to the first nine games of three players who share his stylistic archetype: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Cam Newton. If you're looking at data sets that include players like Bubby Brister alongside John Elway and Terry Bradshaw, you're including styles of players who aren't remotely similar contextually. 

Why does this matter? Players with Richardson's archetype are special athletes who have skills that push the game's boundaries of what is possible at the position. Players like Jackson, Newton, Allen, Bradshaw, and Elway were more prone to take risks that would be stupid for most passers because they never would have the physical prowess to make the plays they could. 

However, once these players learned where the boundaries were for their unique talents, they elevated their game. You have to give this archetype more early latitude to test its limits. It's why measuring their data alongside limited physical talents is comparing apples with Apple Jacks. 

Let's talk about Sunday's game, shall we? Richardson missed a dropping defensive back in the flat and threw an interception. He made several throws that lacked optimal accuracy. 

He also tapped out on a third-and-a-mile play in the third quarter. The act has former players like Brian Baldinger ready to revoke Richardson's status as an NFL-worthy player, and he's shutting down any attempt to debate him on the topic.

I understand why former players take their warrior-like approach seriously. There are instances where it goes too far. I'll probably discuss this on-air at some point, but this article is the most reasonable response I've seen. 

As for Richardson's 10-for-32, 175-yard passing performance that included a touchdown and interception, it's a deceptive box score. Some media claimed there were eight passes that Richardson's receivers dropped, including multiple targets that would have been touchdowns. 

After watching the All-22, I saw five targets I would score as receiver mistakes. These mistakes were dropped passes or poor positioning that gave coverage unnecessary access to the ball.

Two of those five targets were dropped touchdowns. There was a third touchdown Richardson threw after splitting three defenders in the pocket to buy time and find a wide-open Alec Pierce, but Michael Pittman Jr collided downfield with Pierce's coverage and the officials nullified the score. 

There's also the Josh Downs touchdown that the officials ruled was down at the one but appeared on the All-22 as if he landed inside the end zone. 

If his receivers caught these 5 targets for roughly 100 additional receiving yards and 3 touchdowns -- and Downs and the football were, in fact, in the end zone when he landed -- the Colts not only beat the Texans, but Richardson's 15-for-32, 275-yard, 5-touchdown passing performance silences doubters. 

This doesn't count the other three dropped targets that were within the realm of catchable, but I wouldn't score against the receiving corps. 

Richardson, like most quarterbacks with less than a season's worth of game experience, has room for improvement. The panic over him is the typical herd mentality reaction to poor statistical performance. 

If Richardson gets benched, I'd continue buying shares of him in dynasty leagues. Even if he fails out of the league, which I doubt, I'd have no regrets buying into his game because it's more likely he gets it together and delivers at a level few can, and that's going to be great for fantasy. He's already shown glimpses of it. 

5. Ladd McConkey Meeting My Preseason Projections?

If we solely look at October, that possibility is more promising.  

McConkey is the No.20 PPR receiver after eight weeks (7 games). However, he's No.16 in October. My preseason projection? 

  • 130-150 targets
  • 90-110 catches, 
  • 1,000-1,200 yards
  • 3-5 scores
  • Top 10 ranking among preseason WRs

What is McConkey on track to do? 

  • 109 targets
  • 73 catches
  • 913 yards
  • 10 touchdowns
  • 224.3 fantasy points 

Last year, a 224.3 fantasy-point total would have made McConkey WR22. If he builds on his October production for the rest of the year, McConkey could deliver 119 targets, 85 catches, 1135 yards, and 13 touchdowns.

That's 276.5 fantasy points. This total would have placed him 9th among 2023's fantasy receivers. 

I doubt McConkey will score 13 touchdowns this year, but I think he'll be close to 10, which could get his production inside the top 15. The reason why is McConkey's red-zone rapport with Justin Herbert. 

His adjustments off-script in compressed spaces and compressed timelines have been excellent. 

This wasn't McConkey's first play of this caliber this season. He made an excellent adjustment against the Chiefs at the end line for a score a few weeks ago.

He's easily Herbert's most reliable red-zone receiver in terms of conceptual acumen and execution. McConkey is also earning down-field targets that lead to big plays after the catch. I'm buying McConkey's October more than his September and that could lead to a continued rise of the WR charts this year. 

6. Is Caleb Williams Bad? 

In the past 24 hours, I've read that Williams performed poorly against the Commanders. I heard that he can only find receivers when he scrambles. I saw claims that he can't make on-platform throws. 

I also heard this summer that Derrick Henry was washed, Saquon Barkley no longer had juice, Najee Harris as a reliable fantasy starter was stupid, JK Dobbins was never coming back, and drafting early-round running backs this year was folly. 

Oh, and let's not forget about Malik Nabers suffering under Daniel Jones. 

Listen...

Williams faced more pressure this weekend than any quarterback east of Anthony Richardson and unlike the blitzes the Texans sent Richardson's way, the Bears offensive line gave up pressure to base defensive looks.

Williams had few looks to even make multiple reads from the pocket in this game. Yes, he had some bad throws, and consistent pressure induced some of those brainfarts. I've seen it happen to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning; let's not overreact. 

When Williams had time, he wasn't a scrambling madman, but an efficient pocket manager. 

When Williams had limited time in the pocket but had an open man, he stood, delivered under duress, and found the honey hole. 

We also saw Williams acclimate in the fourth quarter and put his team in position to win this game on two different drives. When he had to create, he found a way. 

Williams can't supply pass protection for himself. Williams couldn't help that his playcallers had him hand the ball off to a guard on a goal-line run that resulted in a botched exchange and a Commanders' fumble recovery. He wasn't on the field during Jayden Daniels' awesome Hail Mary. 

Is Caleb Williams bad? 

You tell me...No. Scratch that...I don't need you to tell me. 

7. Cade Otton: Emerging Fantasy Talent

Otton is no Kyle Pitts as an athlete. Pitts is no Otton as a blocker, route runner, or pass-catcher. Yes, Pitts is a better fantasy option as of this week. That's about to change with the Buccaneers' passing game worn to the nubs. 

Baker Mayfield has the most rapport with Otton, and when Mayfield isn't fitting the ball into his talented tight end, the Buccaneers are scheming Otton open as an extension of the run game on shallow routes with clear-outs from teammates ahead of him. 

Pitts is TE4 after eight weeks. Otton is TE6. He's also TE1 since Week 7 and averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game during the past two weeks -- 3.2 more than TE2 David Njoku and 3.6 more than TE3 George Kittle. 

If you're the Buccaneers' opponents, you're more likely giving up nickels and dimes to Otton than dollars to fast wide receivers on the outside. Get your change rolls ready -- it might not be paper, but it's still straight cash, homie. 

8. Jalen McMillan: What Fans Don't See with Rookie WRs

McMillan is a promising rookie. He's also inexperienced with NFL coverage and how to adjust to post-snap events. 

Making the same coverage adjustments as the quarterback is as important as route running and pass-catching technique in the NFL. It's why a slew of Kansas City receivers have underachieved. 

When a young player has a good camp, but doesn't emerge during the season, it's often the mental adjustments during a play that are missing from his game. It's what most fans don't see. 

9. Justin Jefferson Clinic

Do you want to bet better at scouting catching techniques when watching receiver highlights this winter and spring before your dynasty drafts? The easiest way to do it is to watch these videos of Jefferson. 

I'll throw in Jordan Addison's tracking. This little tip is a great one to see if tracking is a low-key issue for prospects. Hint: If they jump for this type of target, it is...

If you think these things are nitpicky, it's why Garrett Wilson isn't yet a superstar and Marvin Harrison Jr., Jr. is up and down (besides Kyler Murray's influence).

10. Bo Nix QB3 in October? Pushover Schedule, Right? 

Yes, if you haven't noticed, Bo Nix is the No.9 fantasy QB this year after eight weeks of play and the No.3 option in October. Cecil Lammey's article for his Denver radio gig alerted me to it -- Nix has better numbers than any rookie passer this month. 

Yeah, but...

Nix faced the Panthers defense and that unit is more generous to fantasy quarterbacks than all but four other teams. True. It's also true that Nix scored 32.6 fantasy points -- 284 yards passing, 3 passing TDs, and a rushing TD with 4 yards on the ground. 

Do you know who delivered the next two highest totals against the Panthers this year? Caleb Williams (26.6) and Derek Carr (23.3). The Panthers have also faced Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Kirk Cousins. Nix and the Broncos offense bested all of them by a significant margin. 

Nix also faced the Raiders, Chargers, and Saints. These three defenses are 18th, 24th, and 16th in generosity to quarterbacks -- middle of the pack or pretty good. Nix's production was one of the 2-3 best the Chargers and Raiders faced and they have faced some dangerous quarterbacks. 

Nix was my No.3 quarterback in this class. Here's a quick snippet from my scouting report, which you can read for free in its entirety. 

"Nix reads the field much better than credited, accounting for the leverage of defenders with target decisions and his placement. He’s a willing, tight-window thrower who knows how to protect his receivers. Nix made decisions and delivered targets with these skills at both schools, but Auburn’s receivers often did him fewer favors with their execution...

If Nix can maintain this maturity as he’s acclimating to the NFL, it will go a long way toward mistake-free football early in his career. Don’t count on it if he must start as a rookie for a rebuilding team but with a strong infrastructure around him, Nix could deliver moderate production while limiting fatal mistakes that could take his team out of the game."

It's also worth noting I'm not sure Nix has a true No.1 wide receiver and only one legit starting-caliber option in that corps. 

That's it! 

Good luck. 

 

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Tags Matt Waldman Top 10 Anthony Richardson Caleb Williams Week 9 Jameis Winston Kyle Pitts Cade Otton Justin Jefferson Alvin Kamara JK Dobbins Ladd McConkey season long Dynasty Matt Waldman

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