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The Top 10: Week 5

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 5
By Matt Waldman, October 1, 2024

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

© Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images the top 10 footballguys

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Derrick Henry hasn't lost anything. I hope you invested in him as suggested for months.
  2. Kareem Hunt looks fresh and like the best running back on the Chiefs roster. 
  3. Jayden Daniels has delivered elite production, but let's not confuse that with elite-level skill. 
  4. Dontayvion Wicks was a short-term buy-low candidate in this feature. That window is closed. 
  5. Ladd McConkey has excellent route skills and rapport where it counts with Justin Herbert. 
  6. Josh Allen trusts Keon Coleman, and that's a huge development for Coleman's rookie year. 
  7. Jordan Addison's hands are teaching tape for scouting a wide receiver's attack of the ball. 
  8. Brenton Strange has a future as a starting tight end. 
  9. Kirk Cousins is gradually showing more range and velocity post-injury.  
  10. 10 Things I Think: Fantasy Strategy Heading into Week 5 2024. 

1. Derrick Henry's Can Is No Longer Dented

Adam Harstad and I have a fun podcast on Thursday mornings called RSP Film And Theory. Adam introduced the term "Dented Can" into the dynasty lexicon last year. 

Dented Cans are players who the fantasy community has perceived to have lost long-term value but have a good chance of proving that perception false. Labeled as an aging big back with worn tread and flagging acceleration, Henry epitomized a dented can. 

After studying Henry multiple times last year, I knew Henry still possessed the physical tools that made him a top fantasy producer. Those analyzing Henry as losing his athletic faculties conflated the Titans' subpar offensive line with Henry's overall game. 

You have to understand what to watch so you're separating the player from his support staff. 

Bob Harris and I have been wish-casting the idea of the Baltimore Ravens signing Henry since early last year because the Ravens have the line and the mobile quarterback to create matchup advantages for Henry. 

As you can see above, Henry has no problem accelerating past second and third-level defenders. Here's another example. 

Henry is in top form on a team with an offensive line that is gelling and a quarterback who forces the opposing defense to account for him in the run game. If you think this helped D'Andre Swift last year, then you can't think this is the only week Henry threatens 200 yards rushing. 

I just got him for a second-round pick in a dynasty league last week--and I didn't even initiate the trade. That's probably not happening now, but listen to the podcast I referenced and begin identifying other dented cans.

2. Kareem Hunt Vaulted to RB1 in KC

Another player I've had on a few rosters in recent weeks, if not longer, Hunt also earned the "he no longer looks good" label. I love/hate the expertise that the community has for assessing speed and acceleration. 

I hate it because there's a naive arrogance that exists among fans and media that they can spot diminishing athletic tools with consistent accuracy. I've been scouting talent for 20 years and I have a difficult time judging speed and acceleration. 

As I mentioned in Week 2, I asked multiple NFL scouts and athletic trainers if they could do it well. All of them said it was the most difficult thing to do. 

Just as I watched Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley and didn't see a significant difference in their athletic ability, I didn't see a massive difference in Hunt's skills in Cleveland. Hunt was never a speedster and he always appeared slower than most prospects when studying him at Toledo. 

Hunt's 4.6-second, 40-Yard Dash at the NFL Combine was his most impressive metric associated with speed and acceleration and that's not a strong number. His 4.53-second 20-Yard Shuttle and 7.22-second 3-Cone Drill were not starter-level measurements. 

Hunt's strengths were vision, contact balance, footwork, and the quickness and accuracy of his decisions between the tackles. Hunt ran with control and urgency in traffic. Eight years later, he's still doing so upon returning to the Chiefs as a break-the-glass emergency weapon. 

Andy Reid has often used a three-headed committee with running backs. Carson Steele was the first man up in the rotation to begin the Chargers' game but a fumble and dropped pass opened the door for Hunt and Hunt made the most of it. 

Hunt ran hard, understood the offense, caught the ball well, and earned what the line gave him plus a little more. Although Reid may have seen something different, I anticipate Hunt and Samaje Perine will earn the most snaps in the rotation next week and Steele will see the fewest. 

Unless Hunt or Perine get hurt or falter with the game plan, don't expect Steele to leapfrog them. 

3. Jayden Daniels' Progress Report

In last week's Gut Check, I profiled the successful slow-launch strategy with Jayden Daniels in Washington. Daniels has performed well. It's equally important to credit the Commanders' scheme which has installed a higher-than-average volume of throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage 

The link above details Daniels' passing distribution for the first three weeks of the season. Last week, Daniels only threw 22 percent of his passes more than 10 yards downfield. In contrast, 43 percent of Sam Darnold's throws traveled more than 10 yards downfield. 

Last week, 67 percent of Daniels' passes against the Cardinals traveled no more than 10 yards downfield. That's 13 percent more than Darnold against the Packers. 

Most of these throws are non-progression plays. In these scenarios, Daniels isn't reading the defense in the same way as players who run plays with a set number of route progressions. The primary method of manipulating a defense with non-progression (schemed) plays is play-action and rollouts to get the defense moving away from the intended target spot. 

This isn't to say Daniels isn't making progression reads in the Washington offense. They just create better clear-cut opportunities for two reads and one obvious read. 

You can find more examples on my X timeline. 

However, Daniels isn't asked to make as many of these reads as many passers. That's a good thing for his development because at LSU, one of his weaknesses was his processing speed and accuracy of decision-making when forced to consider his second and/or third reads. 

Even with Daniels' excellent production this year, you can see that Washington has created a scheme to limit Daniels' weaknesses. This is a great thing for Daniels and the team. 

The Bears haven't done this with Caleb Williams. They ask him to make more progression reads downfield and with a leaky offensive line. He's in a more difficult position, which is why it's ridiculous to pose the question, "Should the Bears have drafted Jayden Daniels?"

Daniels would not have handled the Bears offense any better than Williams. I would argue it would have looked worse. As I noted in Williams' pre-draft scouting report in the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Williams was the only quarterback from this class who could survive getting thrown into the deep water on a bad team. It may not look good for Williams as a rookie, but he won't suffer inexorable damage. 

Daniels is performing well and I like the setting the Commanders have created for their rookie quarterback. I'm also skeptical that this torrid production will continue after Week 8. History says opponents will begin implementing what they've learned from scouting reports into their game plans. 

Continue starting Daniels, but don't abandon your backup plan. 

4. Dontayvion Wicks' Buy-Low Window Is Closed

In Week 2's Top 10, I suggested you keep Wicks on your roster or buy low from the waiver wire because many teams were going to drop him. Wicks' 5-catch, 78-yard, 2-score performance against the Vikings is the reason why. Heading into Monday night, only teammate Jayden Reed and Nico Collins had a better fantasy week. 

Christian Watson may be headed to IR after he suffered a high-ankle sprain in the first half. It opened the door for Wicks to show off his routes and hands.

The box score may leave some with the idea that Wicks dropped multiple passes, but that's not the case. One drop attributed to him should have been scored a catch. 

Wicks gives your fantasy squad a starter-caliber receiver for as long as Watson is out. 

5. Ladd McConkey's Valuable Report with Justin Herbert

Although McConkey isn't delivering to my lofty preseason expectations, he was WR18 last week and WR31 over the past two weeks. I'm optimistic we'll see his value rise as the season unfolds. The reasons are routes and red-zone rapport. 

When a receiver can fake a defender in one direction and anticipate the ball arriving in the opposite direction and do it in the compressed area of the red zone, that's a higher level of trust and rapport between the receiver and the quarterback. 

McConkey may not be the runaway production leader in the Chargers' passing game this year, but I'm still betting he'll be among the top two and go on a run that benefits fantasy GMs. 

6. Josh Allen Trusts Keon Coleman

Coleman was my pre-draft choice as the best contested-catch receiver in this class. I liked the draft-day fit with Coleman and Buffalo because Josh Allen has the arm, the placement, and the arrogance to attack tight windows and allow his receivers to win trust throws. 

We just might look back at Week 4 against the Ravens as the game where we saw Allen show that trust. It began at the end of the first half with a Coleman drop on a sideline fade against tight coverage. I didn't tape it, but Coleman attacked the ball poorly and was angry with himself. 

This set the stage for the second half: Would Allen show the trust to continue feeding Coleman with these routes or would he go elsewhere? 

Two tightly-covered targets at the boundary later, and we got our answer. 

This game could be the indicator that Allen believes in Coleman and will begin making a point to target his receiver more often in these scenarios. It could be the beginning of a beautiful run of fantasy production.

7. Jordan Addison: WR Teaching Tape

Attacking the ball with clean and crisp technique is a fundamental missing from a lot of NFL receiver's games just in the same way that tackling isn't nearly as fundamentally sound as some might think. 

An issue I see weekly with NFL receivers is not extending their arms to the ball with their hands together. Too often, too many receivers attack the ball like they are a singer in an arena asking the audience to clap. You know the arena clap--no doubt Courtland Sutton remembers his visits to Red Rocks when he's on the field and high-pointing targets. 

Sutton, Jordan Addison will show you how it's done. 

When you're studying NFL Draft prospects and splitting hairs to determine the best, this level of technique will separate the best from the rest. 

8. Futures: TE Brenton Strange

Strange is TE12 in PPR leagues over the past two weeks and TE14 for the past three. The second-year option won't be overtaking Evan Engram any time soon, but his work while Engram is rehabbing injury has been notable. 

Strange has a second-contract starter written all over him. 

9. Kirk Cousins' Arm Strength Is Improving

I still haven't seen Cousins throw an intermediate timing route breaking toward the boundary like the deep out or deep comeback, but Sunday offered evidence that Cousin's arm strength is improving. 

The most important thing for Cousins is that the offense is working and he's delivering enough to help the Falcons win despite his arm limitations. 

What we're not seeing is Cousins delivering trust throws to Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Atlanta's tight end is TE15 entering Monday night and London is WR21 with Darnell Mooney a touchdown shy of earning the top production for all Falcons receivers. 

Cousins trusted Justin Jefferson to target him in scenarios we're not seeing with London and Pitts. We'll see if Cousins begins trusting himself to make these throws as his ability to drive the ball with his lower body improves. 

10. 10 Things I Think 

  1. Unless Chuba Hubbard gets hurt, I don't expect the Jonathon Brooks end-of-season fantasy play will deliver a strong return on investment.
  2. Sam Darnold is Will Levis after Hero Ball Anonymous rehab and an exorcism of the pocket ghosts. 
  3. Tank Bigsby's film continues to reveal that he's competent but not special. 
  4. Trey Sermon will be worth consideration as a volume producer if you expect the Colts to play with a lead. Tyler Goodson will be worth more consideration if you expect the Colts to be playing from behind. 
  5. Ken Walker III is headed for a career year. 
  6. David Montgomery is a shining example that you don't write off players for looking slow early in their careers. He was never fast, but some players need time to acclimate. 
  7. Until Mike McDaniel allows (an eventually healthy) Skylar Thompson to attack downfield, Tyreek Hill might be no better than a fantasy WR3 until Tua Tagovailoa returns. 
  8. Trade for 2027 NFL Draft picks in dynasty if you're tanking/rebuilding.
  9. If you need an RB, trade for 2025 picks. 
  10. If Justice Hill leaves Baltimore, Andy Reid will snap him up. 

See you next week.

 

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Tags The Top 10 Matt Waldman top 10 week 5 Derrick Henry Kareem Hunt Jayden Daniels Dontayvion Wicks Ladd McConkey Keon Coleman Jordan Addison Brenton Strange Kirk Cousins

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