What if you could go back in time with complete knowledge of the future? No, not to buy Bitcoin or have the perfect line for the one that got away. This is more important.
The mission: Creating a hypothetical fantasy football champion.
How can you apply future knowledge to past Average Draft Position (ADP) and build the perfect roster? What is the roster construction and the takeaways? What changed from 2022?
How can we exploit 2024 ADP, particularly in early Underdog Best Ball drafts?
Utilizing Footballguys' 2023 ADP with league settings of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex position -- additionally, six bench spots but no kickers or defense. Kickers have feelings, but Brandon Aubry finished as K1 and sat outside the top 24 in ADP.
The Roster
- QB Dak Prescott, Dallas - ADP 90, Season Finish: QB5, 20.4 PPG
- QB Jordan Love, Green Bay - ADP 170, QB6, 19.5 PPG
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit - ADP 32, RB7, 14.8 PPG
- RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams - ADP 230, RB2, 19.9 PPG
- RB Raheem Mostert, Miami - ADP 117, RB3, 17 PPG
- RB De'Von Achane, Miami - ADP 129, RB4, 16.5 PPG
- RB James Conner, Arizona - ADP 70, RB15, 13.3 PPG
- WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas - ADP 12, WR2, 19.2 PPG
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit - ADP 15, WR4, 16.5 PPG
- WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland - ADP 39, WR17, 12.7 PPG
- WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams - ADP 262, WR9, 14.6 PPG
- WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay - ADP 73, WR6, 15 PPG
- WR Terry McLaurin, Washington - ADP 55, WR39, 9.7 PPG
- TE David Njoku, Cleveland - ADP 97, TE6, 10 PPG
The Selection Process
Quarterback
The 2023 season was the year of the backup quarterback. The scoring evened out with players like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins seeing seasons end early and Patrick Mahomes II returning to the pack.
Love was a screaming value.
Love stepped up his game late in the season as QB3 for the fantasy playoffs. He averaged 23.1 points during the playoffs, a season-long number that would tie Jalen Hurts for QB2.
This team has two quarterbacks. Rostering two quarterbacks is not ideal. It broke this way for multiple reasons. First, there were the injuries previously mentioned. Seven of the top 15 quarterbacks suffered season-ending injuries. Second, the choices were limited in Round 8. Prescott was outstanding, QB1 from Week 6 onward. He cooled off in the playoffs, but he got you there. The other players available in Round 8 were timeshare running backs like A.J. Dillon or Khalil Herbert or secondary wide receivers like Gabe Davis and Brandin Cooks.
The Lesson: Wait on quarterbacks.
This lesson directly conflicts with 2022's lesson on grabbing elite quarterbacks. What changed? ADP shifted. Patrick Mahomes II' ADP in 2022 was 39. It moved up to 19. Shifting from Round 4 to Round 2 increases the return needed to justify passing other elite positions. The scoring curve also flattened. In 2022, there were just four quarterbacks within five points of Josh Allen's QB1, 25.6 points per game. In 2023, there were eight quarterbacks within five points of QB1. Travis Kelce's returning to the pack highlighted something similar with tight end; the value proposition shifts dramatically when available options expand.
Running Back
While the quarterback strategy pulled a 180, the running back strategy doubled down from 2022: target rookies and target uncertainty on high-upside offenses.
Christian McCaffrey is the main topic. The first cut of this team included McCaffrey. He was among the most common players on championship weekend teams; his performance in Week 15 is a big reason why. His 22 PPG were two clear of RB2 Kyren Williams. His disappointing performance in Week 17 caused the switch to CeeDee Lamb. Lamb's performance that week delivered multiple championships (including the Underdog Best Ball Mania).
The consensus shift towards wide receivers over running backs early is instructive.
Rookies were vital in 2022's team, with Ken Walker and Tyler Allgeier, and it happened again in 2023 with Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane. Both players have boom/bust potential and are in high-upside offenses.
2022 dealt with the reality of the dreaded "Running Back Dead Zone" (The Dead Zone is roughly Rounds 3 through 6). While risky, league winners come from this area. League-leading rusher, Josh Jacobs, and Cam Akers emerge from the Dead Zone to make the 2022 Perfect Team. Conner, James Cook, Rachaad White, and others were key Dead Zone contributors in 2023. Of course, there were misses: J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Dalvin Cook. But the shift of wide receivers up the board pushes more backs into this area. The key is to bet on younger backs poised for more significant opportunities over older backs looking for one more season.
Lastly, target ambiguity. Miami was an ambiguous backfield. The Rams were in hindsight. Kyren Williams was an obvious addition. The Rams' usage at the end of 2022 showed Williams picked up valuable passing-down snaps. The snaps looked less valuable with John Wolford and Bryce Perkins at quarterback.
The Lesson: Target ambiguity late, risk navigating the Dead Zone, and rookies are historically undervalued.
A quick note on the 2024 rookie running back class. There is no Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, or Gibbs threatening the top. That shifts the narrative to a weak class. Players like Isiah Pacheco and Williams show running back contributions come from anywhere. If (and when) rookies land in ambiguous situations, there is value.
Wide Receiver
This team hammered wide receivers early, taking them in Rounds 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7. Maybe it was overkill, especially with the late, high-end production from Nacua, but the ability to start four, plus weekly variance and league-mate defense, was the right move.
A quick note on McLaurin. Selecting WR39 on a Perfect Team is odd. He finished as overall WR3 in Week 15 and had a weekly upside. Ultimately, the fifth-round ADP was terrible. The best pick was George Kittle, but the tight end position flattened. Disappointments like Miles Sanders and Christian Watson or injuries like Dobbins and Mike Williams filled the round. Pour one out for Dobbins, who sat in a great situation.
Lamb and St. Brown frame the topic of correlation. A frequent conversation in Best Ball drafting, working backward to feature playoff matchups to push higher totals holds powerful value. This roster has two Lions and two Cowboys, a Week 17 matchup. McLaurin's big Week 15 performance correlated with the two Rams in Williams and Nacua. Fantasy managers looking for improvement areas can highlight this and build cohesive rosters.
Evans follows 2022 DeVonta Smith's prototype -- talented players on offenses the fantasy hive mind missed. Both went Round 7. Both dramatically outperformed ADP. Our Adam Harstad is brilliant. Adam preaches "being wrong in the right direction." Missing the wrong way on Evans or Smith at a seventh-round ADP gave minimal collateral damage. Their price has baked with every level of risk. But being wrong in the positive direction delivered fantasy WR1 seasons.
On Nacua, the best explanation is magic. His breakout is unprecedented. Target rookies was a 2022 takeaway. Rookies were pushed up draft boards in reaction to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson's breakout seasons. Olave's ADP was 99, while 2023's top rookie, Jordan Addison, went off at 85. But Nacua, Rashee Rice (ADP 169), and Tank Dell (ADP 213) showed that if you take a late chance, go young.
The Lesson: Fantasy is an early wide receiver landscape. Take chances on young wide receivers, and lean into talented players with the potential to be wrong in the right direction.
Tight End
Tight end is dead, long live tight end. Kelce was a 2022 Perfect Team consideration, but late ADP T.J. Hockenson won out. In 2023, Kelce's positional advantage completely flattened. In 2022, Kelce's 15.4 half-PPR points were four clear of second place Kittle and seven clear of TE6 Taysom Hill each week.
In 2023, Sam LaPorta led at 11.6 PPG. Four other players were within 0.3 per game. A whopping 13 players were less than four away.
Njoku made the team simply because he performed best in Weeks 15-17. Unless a young player like LaPorta, Trey McBride, or Dalton Kincaid takes a massive leap and creates Kelce-level separation, there is little reason not to wait till the end of drafts.
The Lesson: Tight end is fun, but it does not matter.
The Final Takeaways
Playoff production (Weeks 15 through 17) was vital to roster construction. That means a player like Cooper (46 half-PPR points in week 16, the second most by any player in 2023) was a must-roster.
Playoff scoring breakdown
- Week 15 -- 158.2 points
- Week 16 -- 196.6 points
- Week 17 -- 185.5 points
The Week 15 dip is not ideal. This team could lose. We all can relate to teams that lost early in the playoffs only to score the most points in the league in the subsequent rounds.
Byes are crucial; securing one and narrowing the path to just two games dramatically increases the odds of winning.
Another key is volatility.
This scenario is a perfect world. Historic ADP, the best possible path, then "best balling" the Perfect Lineup. And it is still volatile. Combat volatility by building a roster with high-ceiling players. The focus of building the "perfect" lineup is heavily on posting the highest score, but there is an element of defense. More good players for you, less good players for opponents.
A follow-up article will apply these lessons to the early 2024 Underdog ADP.
