The New Reality No.221: Key Dynasty RB Observations

The season has enough sample size to draw conclusions about NFL offenses and player utilization. However, the fantasy season is barreling towards the business section of the calendar, where at least 1-2 teams in a league are looking toward 2025 already. Here are the key NFL and fantasy observations at the running back position:

Arizona

James Conner has dominated the market share (as expected) early in the season. The key takeaway is two-fold through five weeks. First, Arizona is the worst HLO (high-leverage opportunity) team in the NFL for their running backs. Be skeptical of the upside of Emari Demercado or Trey Benson if Conner misses time. Also, Trey Benson was a healthy scratch in Week 5, and Demercado has been the clear RB2 thus far. Benson is an ideal dynasty running back target for teams who are falling out of the 2024 postseason race and pointing their attention toward 2025. Benson is also a potential sell for contending help for teams high in the standings as Benson is a non-producer and might be a non-producer even if Conner misses a chunk of games.

Buffalo

James Cook is having a robust season (RB11 in PPG), but the most interesting aspect of the depth chart is veteran Ty Johnson, the clear RB2 over Ray Davis. That may transition to Davis later in the season, but Johnson is one of the underrated "What if?" stash running backs for upside. Johnson is available in plenty of dynasty leagues as well as redraft leagues, yet stands to inherit the lead role if Cook misses time. One example is Johnson has four times the amount of routes as Davis on the season.

Carolina

Jonathon Brooks' practice window and pathway to making his NFL debut begins. He is the more exciting dynasty asset and proposition, but Chuba Hubbard is a sturdy veteran with a vice grip on the starting role for now. The Carolina offense with Andy Dalton starting has newfound appeal for upside from Hubbard and Diontae Johnson, which was not present with Bryce Young. Hubbard is venturing into a dynasty cost zone where the assumption is Brooks will be back soon and easily seize the lead role. Brooks is returning from a significant knee injury and surgery and has yet to play in the NFL. It is entirely possible Brooks has limited opportunities to rise up the depth chart in 2024 and is more of a 2025 proposition for significant work.