Whether you are here to celebrate a championship or move forward off a disappointing loss, one thing is sure.
You are here.
For that, thank you.
The end of the fantasy football season is bittersweet. It is the culmination of a months-long grind started by pools and barbeques and ended in the cold of the post-holiday season.
Fantasy leagues bring workplaces, family, and friends together. As lives get busier, it is often the binding presence.
My home league tells the story of my life.
It started nearly 20 years ago among college friends; it has grown and changed as my life has grown and changed. Many of the original members moved on and were replaced by people in my life at that moment. There are coworkers from past jobs who I would have lost touch with had it not been for the league. Two brothers-in-law have joined, and I knew neither when the league started. They brought in their closest friends and built a web of people I had never met.
We have grown—first, a traditional snake redraft league. Then, there was a keeper, a salary cap league, and, for the last five seasons, a Superflex Dynasty league.
I have years of heartbreak. Alvin Kamara's six-touchdown game on Christmas happened against me in a title game. Joe Burrow's 525 yards, four touchdowns stacked with Tee Higgins 194, and two Week 16 in 2021, you guessed it. Ka'imi Fairbairn once kicked five field goals to beat me in 2018.
Titles have been elusive.
Your league likely has similar stories.
I finally broke through after a nearly decade-long drought to win in 2023. I need Jared Goff and George Kittle under 20.26 points to repeat. I do not feel confident.
But even the eventual loss will have silver linings.
The chance to do it again next year.
That's why we play.
And now, The Roundup.
This week's roundup will be a bit different. Deep waivers will be a follow-up feature that runs through free agency. There will also be a Motivation series for Week 18 to set the stage for the season close.
Thank you all for being here this season.
Stats Of The Week
100 rushing yards - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley became the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards. He now sits precisely 100 away from Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105. The Eagles' playoff position is locked in as the NFC two-seed. But Barkley faces his former team, the Giants, in Week 18 with the record in sight.
108 receptions / 1,144 receiving yards - TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas - Bowers broke Puka Nacua's NFL record of 105 for most receptions by a rookie. Bowers also broke Mike Ditka's 63-year-old record for most rookie tight end receiving yards. Bowers needs eight receptions in Week 18 to tie Zach Ertz's record of 116 tight end receptions in a season.
6,110 rushing yards - QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore - Jackson broke Michael Vick's record of 6,109 rushing yards by a quarterback. At 27, Jackson can put the record well out of reach. Jackson, Vick, and Justin Fields are the only quarterbacks to rush for 1,000 yards. Jackson is 148 rush yards from hitting that mark twice.
864 rushing yards - QB Jayden Daniels, Washington - Daniels broke Robert Griffin's record of 816 rush yards for a rookie quarterback. His 127 rush yards were his first 100-yard day and a season-high. With 136 additional yards, he would become the fourth different quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in a year.
117 receptions, 1,612 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns - WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati - Chase has a near lock on the receiving triple crown. He leads Bowers by nine receptions, Justin Jefferson by 133 yards, and Terry McLaurin by four touchdowns.
1,783 rushing yards - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore - Henry is one of the nine players with a 2,000-yard season. His 2024 total is the second most of his career. His yardage is the 26th-most in a season, and a 100-yard game would put him into a tie with Ahman Green and Barry Sanders for the eleventh most in a season. Henry has a chance to become the first player to rush for 2,000 yards twice, needing 217 more against a Browns team with little to play for beyond pride.
1,000 rushing yards - RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay / RB Rico Dowdle, Dallas / RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh - The 1,000-yard club grew to 14 in Week 17. For Irving and Dowdle, it is their first 1,000-yard season. Harris's four-season streak of 1,000 yards is the longest active. Emmitt Smith holds the NFL record with 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Curtis Martin and Barry Sanders did it ten times.
77 receiving touchdowns - TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City - Kelce became the Chiefs' all-time leader in receiving touchdowns, breaking Tony Gonzalez's team record.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
Bellcows
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | RB1 | Bijan Robinson | 17 | 5 | 17-90-2 / 3-8-0 | 88.00% |
RB2 | Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 0 | 3-19-0 / 0 | 12.00% | |
Baltimore | RB1 | Derrick Henry | 27 | 2 | 27-147-1 / 2-18-0 | 69.05% |
RB2 | Keaton Mitchell | 11 | 1 | 11-20-0 / 1-28-0 | 28.57% | |
RB3 | Rasheen Ali | 1 | 0 | 1-(3)-0 / 0 | 2.38% | |
Chicago | RB1 | D'Andre Swift | 12 | 5 | 12-53-0 / 4-28-0 | 80.95% |
RB2 | Roschon Johnson | 4 | 0 | 4-5-0 / 0 | 19.05% | |
Cincinnati | RB1 | Chase Brown | 20 | 4 | 20-67-0 / 4-24-0 | 85.71% |
RB2 | Khalil Herbert | 4 | 0 | 4-23-0 / 0 | 14.29% | |
Dallas | RB1 | Rico Dowdle | 23 | 1 | 23-104-0 / 1-4-0 | 88.89% |
RB2 | Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 0 | 3-2-0 / 0 | 11.11% | |
Detroit | RB1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | Monday | |||
RB2 | Craig Reynolds | |||||
RB3 | Jermar Jefferson | |||||
RB4 | Sione Vaki | |||||
Green Bay | RB1 | Josh Jacobs | 17 | 0 | 17-69-1 | 73.91% |
RB2 | Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 0 | 6-29-1 | 26.09% | |
Indianapolis | RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 4 | 32-125-2 / 2-11-0 | 97.30% |
RB2 | Trey Sermon | 0 | 1 | 0 / 1-10-0 | 2.70% | |
LA Rams | RB1 | Kyren Williams | 13 | 3 | 13-56-1 / 3-16-0 | 84.21% |
RB2 | Blake Corum | 3 | 0 | 3-(4)-0 / 0 | 15.79% | |
New England | RB1 | Antonio Gibson | 12 | 1 | 12-63-0 / 0 | 81.25% |
RB2 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 1 | 2-1-0 / 0 | 18.75% | |
NY Giants | RB1 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.. | 20 | 3 | 20-59-0 / 2-14-0 | 73.33% |
RB2 | Devin Singletary | 5 | 1 | 5-21-0 / 1-9-0 | 26.67% | |
Philadelphia | RB1 | Saquon Barkley | 31 | 2 | 31-167-0 / 2-2-0 | 82.50% |
RB2 | Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 1 | 3-4-0 / 1-5-0 | 10.00% | |
RB3 | Tyrion Davis-Price | 3 | 0 | 3-7-0 / 0 | 7.50% | |
Seattle | RB1 | Zach Charbonnet | 15 | 3 | 15-57-0 / 3-19-0 | 72.00% |
RB2 | Kenny McIntosh | 7 | 0 | 7-46-0 / 0 | 28.00% | |
Tampa Bay | RB1 | Bucky Irving | 20 | 4 | 20-113-0 / 4-77-0 | 60.00% |
RB2 | Sean Tucker | 8 | 1 | 8-39-0 / 1-5-0 | 22.50% | |
RB3 | Rachaad White | 6 | 1 | 6-30-0 / 1-4-0 | 17.50% | |
Tennessee | RB1 | Tyjae Spears | 20 | 4 | 20-95-0 / 3-8-0 | 85.71% |
RB2 | Julius Chestnut | 3 | 1 | 3-17-0 / 0 | 14.29% |
In a must-win situation, the Falcons gave the full Bellcow role to Robinson. He did his part despite the team coming up short. His 1,286 rush yards are the 12th most in a Falcons season, and his 12 touchdowns are among the top five in franchise history. He is the only running back to rank in the top five in rushing and receiving yardage. At 98 scrimmage yards, he fell just short of his 12th game over 100 yards. William Andrews holds the franchise record with 14 games over 100 scrimmage yards in 1981.
Justice Hill missed this game, and Ali went out with an injury, opening the door for Mitchell to see his first significant playing time. The game was not close, and Mitchell racked up touches during garbage time. He looked good in that work and would add a different element, though the Ravens may not add in until 2025.
Swift set a career-high in scrimmage yards at 1,280. At 894 rushing yards, he is one big game away from back-to-back 1,000-yard rush seasons, and 386 receiving yards are three away from his second-best number and 66 from a career-high. Great, right? Well, Swift's 11.3 PPG ranks as RB24. Even that buries what happened. Over four games from Weeks 4 through 8, Swift was RB3 at 21 points per game. Removing those four games puts him at 8.1 PPG over the other 12, an average good for R35, tied with Jerome Ford. The Bears will have a new coaching staff in 2025, and Swift profiles as a feature back, but even in his best statistical season, he was disappointing.
Brown went down with an ankle injury at the end of regulation. He slid down awkwardly at the goal line, trying to run the clock, and did not return. Herbert ran strong during overtime in relief and would be a top Week 18 option without Brown. The Bengals expressed optimism about Brown's injury following the game. Brown is just ten yards shy of 1,000 at 990. The Bengals are playing for their season in Week 18, needing a win against Pittsburgh combined with Denver and Miami losses to get the seventh seed. His status will be a Week 18 storyline, though Herbert can have a big day if given the opportunity.
Dowdle topped 1,000 yards during the Cowboys loss. His season is the classic tale of two halves. Through the first nine games, he averaged 44.7 yards as the team worked through Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Hunter Luepke in a passing offense built around Dak Prescott. In the final six, they committed to Dowdle, and in the run game with Cooper Rush, Dowdle responded with 100.8 YPG. Despite the spike in run game production, Dowdle was just RB17 in PPG, owing to a lack of touchdowns and pass game work. Dowdle joined Thomas Jones (1,119 in 2007) and Garrison Hearst (1,070 in 1995) as the only backs with 1,000 rush yards and one touchdown or less.
Jacobs has been the focal point for the Packers' offense, but the team has actively managed his workload. There are conflicting reports about an injury Jacobs is working through, but he hardly played in the second half of Week 16, and in Week 17, the team sat him during a furious fourth-quarter comeback attempt. Jacobs's 1,285 rush yards are the sixth most for a Packers running back, and his 14 touchdowns are the fifth most. Ahman Green is the single-season leader at 1,883, and Jim Taylor leads with 19 touchdowns. Jacobs's 15 touchdowns are a career-high, and his yardage totals trail only his league-leading 2022 season. As RB6 in PPG and RB5 in total points, Jacobs has been a big win on an RB12 and overall 33 ADP.
Jonathan Taylor is your 2024 fantasy league winner. Taylor has bounced back from his embarrassing goal-line drop in Week 15 to rush for 343 yards and five touchdowns over Weeks 16 and 17 to be RB1 at 33.2 PPG over those key weeks. Before his explosion, Taylor had gone six weeks without scoring and was RB19 at 13.2 PPG and RB27 overall. He ends the first 17 weeks at RB8 with 16.2 PPG. His 1,254 rush yards are the second-best total of his career and first year over 1,000 since 2021. His second touchdown in Week 17 pushed him to 10 on the season and 50 for his career.
The Cardinals have been a difficult matchup for Williams in 2024. His 56 rush yards were his lowest since he had 25 against Arizona in Week 2, and two of his three lowest games have come against them. Williams has put together a great season, ranking RB10 at 15.9 PPG and RB6 in total points. His 1,299 yards are the 12th-highest total in franchise history, and 14 touchdowns tie Eric Dickerson and Cleveland Gary for the sixth highest. The Rams clinched the NFC West but are playing for seeding, as a loss combined with a Buccaneers win would push them to the fourth seed and an opening-round matchup with the Detroit vs. Minnesota loser. A win gives them the three seed, facing either Washington or Green Bay. Sean McVay has been one of the most aggressive coaches at resting his players, but those stakes are high enough to play Williams.
A pregame report had Gibson starting over Stevenson. Stevenson still started and received the first carry, but the Chargers dominated the Patriots offense, who abandoned the run except garbage time work for Gibson. Stevenson is in year one of a five-year contract extension, and Gibson is signed through 2026. Expect this to be the backfield in 2025, with a later-round rookie or UDFAs competing to fill the third back depth role.
Tracy had his best rushing day since Week 10. Through the first four weeks, he had 12 rushes total. Since taking over, he has averaged 13.8 rushes and 62.6 yards, a 17-game pace of 235-1,064-6.8, and 46 receptions for 335 yards. Tracy is the 54th rookie to rush for 780+ yards with 270+ receiving yards.
Barkley's season is detailed in Stats of the Week. Will Shipley was out after a concussion in Week 16, allowing Davis-Price mop-up work as the third back. Barkley needs 100 yards for the record, though the Eagles have nothing to gain from Week 18, creating one of the week's most challenging start/sit decisions. If he does play, expect a quick hook after hitting the record and Shipley (if active) or Davis-Price to take over.
The Rams needed specific results to win the division tiebreaker against the Seahawks and get the required results. Seattle is eliminated. The team shut Ken Walker III down, putting him on IR after an ankle injury in Week 16. Charbonnet served as the Bellcow. Charbonnet had four games over 10 touches in 2024. In those games, he averaged 80 rush yards, 1.25 touchdowns, 4.5 receptions, and 31.25 receiving yards, a 17-game pace of 1,360 rush yards, 21 touchdowns, 77 receptions, and 531 receiving yards. Walker is a free agent following the 2025 season, and the team has worked with a Bellcow role. McIntosh has run well when given opportunities.
Irving topped 1,000 yards in the win, becoming the first rookie in the last two seasons to top that mark. He is the fifth Buccaneers rookie over that mark, and his 1,033 yards trail only Doug Martin (1,454) and Cadillac Williams (1,178). The team shifted their backfield usage dramatically during their Week 11 bye. Over the first ten weeks, Irving averaged 9.6 rushes and 2.8 targets, while Rachaad White was at 8.9 and 4.6. Since the bye (and removing a Week 14 game where Irving left with injury), Irving has bumped to 17.6 rushes and 3.6 targets, while White is at 9.4 and 2.6. White had a costly fumble in Week 16 at the end of the Cowboys' loss. He was restricted to garbage time work in Week 17, with Tucker playing over him. White is a free agent following 2025.
Tony Pollard missed Week 17 after falling ill with the flu. Spears has played 60% of the snaps over the last three weeks after topping at 46% in the previous 13 games. His 95 rush yards were a career-high (he has exceeded 50 yards just one other time, with 75 yards in Week 13 of 2023). Spears finished RB4 during the fantasy playoffs, averaging 87 scrimmage yards and 18.7 PPG from Weeks 15 to 17.
Committee With A Lead
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | RB1 | Michael Carter | 13 | 2 | 13-70-0 / 2-11-0 | 65.22% |
RB2 | James Conner | 4 | 3 | 4-4-0 / 2-4-0 | 30.43% | |
RB3 | DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 1 | 0 / 1-5-0 | 4.35% | |
Buffalo | RB1 | James Cook | 15 | 0 | 15-53-1 / 0 | 55.56% |
RB2 | Ray Davis | 6 | 1 | 6-9-0 / 1-4-0 | 25.93% | |
RB3 | Ty Johnson | 4 | 1 | 4-16-0 / 1-9-0 | 18.52% | |
Carolina | RB1 | Raheem Blackshear | 8 | 0 | 8-20-0 / 0 | 66.67% |
RB2 | Mike Boone | 2 | 2 | 2-11-0 / 0 | 33.33% | |
Houston | RB1 | Joe Mixon | 9 | 3 | 9-26-0 / 2-13-0 | 60.00% |
RB2 | Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 1 | 2-12-0 / 0 | 15.00% | |
RB3 | Dameon Pierce | 5 | 0 | 5-13-0 / 0 | 25.00% | |
Kansas City | RB1 | Kareem Hunt | 9 | 0 | 9-20-1 / 0 | 47.37% |
RB2 | Isiah Pacheco | 6 | 0 | 6-18-0 / 0 | 31.58% | |
RB3 | Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 2-9-0 / 2-20-0 | 21.05% | |
Las Vegas | RB1 | Ameer Abdullah | 20 | 4 | 20-115-0 / 3-32-0 | 60.00% |
RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 10 | 3 | 10-32-0 / 1-6-0 | 32.50% | |
RB3 | Chris Collier | 3 | 0 | 3-6-0 / 0 | 7.50% | |
LA Chargers | RB1 | J.K. Dobbins | 19 | 1 | 19-76-1 / 1-7-0 | 55.56% |
RB2 | Hassan Haskins | 8 | 1 | 8-30-0 / 1-10-0 | 25.00% | |
RB3 | Kimani Vidal | 5 | 2 | 5-24-0 / 0 | 19.44% | |
Miami | RB1 | De'Von Achane | 10 | 2 | 10-25-0 / 2-13-0 | 52.17% |
RB2 | Raheem Mostert | 6 | 2 | 6-3-0 / 2-16-0 | 34.78% | |
RB3 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | 3 | 0 | 3-5-0 / 0 | 13.04% | |
Minnesota | RB1 | Aaron Jones | 12 | 5 | 12-47-0 / 4-30-0 | 54.84% |
RB2 | Cam Akers | 6 | 3 | 6-18-0 / 2-15-1 | 29.03% | |
RB3 | Ty Chandler | 5 | 0 | 5-7-0 / 0 | 16.13% | |
New Orleans | RB1 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 4 | 5-20-0 / 2-10-0 | 56.25% |
RB2 | Kendre Miller | 3 | 1 | 3-3-0 / 1-16-0 | 25.00% | |
RB3 | Jamaal Williams | 2 | 1 | 2-12-0 / 1-12-0 | 18.75% | |
NY Jets | RB1 | Breece Hall | 10 | 1 | 10-45-0 / 1-8-0 | 52.38% |
RB2 | Braelon Allen | 6 | 0 | 6-26-0 / 0 | 28.57% | |
RB3 | Isaiah Davis | 3 | 1 | 3-35-0 / 1-8-0 | 19.05% | |
Washington | RB1 | Brian Robinson Jr | 13 | 2 | 10-24-0 / 2-17-0 | 60.00% |
RB2 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 5 | 1 | 2-3-0 / 4-15-0 | 24.00% | |
RB3 | Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3-5-0 / 0 | 16.00% |
Conner handled seven opportunities in the first quarter before his day was finished due to injury. He was a risky call coming into the game, emerging as a true game-time decision. Trey Benson missed due to injury, thrusting Carter into a key role for the final three quarters. Carter did not play in the first 14 games but has averaged 64.5 scrimmage yards in the last two weeks. He will likely get the start in Week 18 unless Benson can clear.
Cook's 17 touchdowns lead the league. He is 19 yards from 1,000 for back-to-back years. His regular season may be finished, as the Bills are locked in the two-seed and have nothing to play for in Week 18. In the past, Sean McDermott has given the starters most of the first half in these situations.
Chuba Hubbard's breakout season ended with an IR placement. Blackshear played most of the snaps, though the Panthers could get nothing working on the ground. They'll face the Falcons in Week 18, who need a win and a Buccaneers loss.
Mixon and the Texans' offense struggled severely. Removing a Week 2 game where he suffered an ankle injury that caused him to miss a month, Mixon was above 90 scrimmage yards and scored in his first seven games, averaging 131 YPG. His only strong game over his past five came against a struggling Jacksonville team. He has averaged 52 scrimmage yards in the other four games and has been held out of the end zone. He needs seven more yards to hit 1,000, though the Texans have nothing to play for in Week 18.
Hunt has pulled ahead of Pacheco, playing 62 snaps compared to 46 over the last two weeks. The Chiefs have announced they will take Week 18 off, pushing Carson Steele or Perine into the lead role. They have the Round 1 bye, giving Pacheco two weeks to reset and get healthier. Their playoff usage will be interesting to monitor. Pacheco is a free agent following 2025. Absent a significant playoff bounceback, they should be a prime candidate to make a meaningful addition in the draft or free agency.
Abdullah has been one of the most shocking fantasy contributors down the stretch. Since Week 12, he has had four games over 15 points (Week 13 and 14 were quiet, coinciding with the breakout of Sincere McCormick). He was RB9 at 16.4 PPG during the fantasy playoffs, with his 115 rush yards in Week 17, his first 100-yard game. He is one of 18 backs with 40+ receptions. Who had Abdullah as a fantasy league-shifting player in his age-31 season?
Dobbins returned from a month-long IR stint to step back into the lead role. He has a career-high 842 rush yards and nine touchdowns as a comeback player of the year candidate. The Chargers will know before kick-off if their Week 18 game has meaning. A Steelers loss opens the opportunity to move into the fifth seed, avoiding a first-round matchup with the Ravens.
With a running quarterback in Tyler Huntley, Achane's short pass game role Tua Tagovailoa had relied on disappeared. With 14 rush yards, two receptions, and eight receiving yards, Achane would become the 26th player to rush for 800+ yards and catch 80 passes for 600+ yards.
Jones worked through an injury before his day ended early. His 1,093 rush yards are the third-best total of his career. He needs just 28 rush yards and 87 scrimmage yards for career highs in a Week 18 matchup for Detroit with the #1 overall seed in the NFC at stake. He topped 7,000 career rush yards in Week 17. Akers has emerged as a reliable second back following his acquisition. He delivered a key first down conversion to ice the win against Green Bay.
Who had Edwards-Helaire leading a backfield in Week 17? Miller left the game with an injury, adding to the long list of Saints to miss time. The Saints offense has struggled, and Tampa Bay will be a difficult Week 18 matchup, though Edwards-Helaire playing an hour away from where he grew up and starred with the LSU Tigers is a feel-good story.
Hall has worked through injury to remain in the lineup. Considering the Jets have had little at stake, that is worth recognizing. Unfortunately, he is one of the biggest disappointments of 2024 after going off as RB1 in some drafts. He has four games above 19 points but has averaged 9.52 in his other eleven. That point total would make him RB33 on the season.
Ink Robinson in for 60 rush yards. He bounced back from a disappointing Week 16 that included two fumbles to land at his season average. He has between 60 and 71 yards in five of his last eight. He had six touchdowns in the first six games but now just two over the last seven. The running back landscape has changed, with more players stepping into Bellcow roles. Robinson should be viewed as a later ZeroRB target with a low-end RB2 ceiling.
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland | RB1 | D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 2 | 13-49-0 / 0 | 48.39% |
RB2 | Pierre Strong Jr. | 5 | 5 | 5-33-0 / 3-15-0 | 32.26% | |
RB3 | Jerome Ford | 6 | 0 | 6-22-0 / 0 | 19.35% | |
Denver | RB1 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 10 | 2 | 10-69-0 / 2-7-0 | 36.36% |
RB2 | Audric Estime | 9 | 1 | 9-24-0 / 1-13-0 | 30.30% | |
RB3 | Javonte Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 / 2-0-0 | 6.06% | |
OW | Marvin Mims Jr.. | 1 | 8 | 1-(1)-0 / 8-103-2 | 27.27% | |
Jacksonville | RB1 | Travis Etienne Jr. | 15 | 2 | 15-49-0 / 1-26-0 | 54.84% |
RB2 | Tank Bigsby | 11 | 1 | 11-33-0 / 0 | 38.71% | |
RB3 | D'Ernest Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 / 2-11-0 | 6.45% | |
Pittsburgh | RB1 | Jaylen Warren | 11 | 6 | 11-71-0 / 5-41-0 | 48.57% |
RB2 | Najee Harris | 13 | 4 | 13-74-0 / 2-7-0 | 48.57% | |
RB3 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 1-2-0 / 0 | 2.86% | |
San Francisco | RB1 | Isaac Guerendo | Monday | |||
OW | Deebo Samuel Sr. |
Ford left with an injury and shifted the usage to Foreman and Strong. The Browns face a motivated Baltimore Ravens team in Week 18. Do not expect anything from this duo.
Williams still led the backfield in snaps, though his role is almost just a pass blocker. McLaughlin missed Week 16 but has been the most dynamic option for the Broncos, averaging 5.6 YPC since Week 7. Estime has established himself as the power component. He played 18 snaps and saw 10 touches; there is little mystery about where the ball is going when he is in. Williams will be a free agent following the year; seeing him return to Denver would be a surprise. Expect McLaughlin and Estime to be the top backs next year, with Blake Watson or Tyler Badie as the third back.
Bigsby led in touches for Week 16, so it was Etienne's turn in Week 17. On the season, Bigsby has 165 opportunities for 778 scrimmage yards, while Etienne has 184 for 752. Coach Doug Pederson's future is uncertain at best. The talent that made Etienne a first-round pick and allowed 1,400+ scrimmage yards in 2022 and 2023 is still there. Etienne enters 2025 in a contract year and could be a trade candidate, depending on the franchise's direction.
The good news? Harris and Warren combined for their best yardage day. The bad? The Steelers losing streak is three. The Steelers ' backs told the tale before two good yardage days in the last two weeks in losses. In their first four losses, the two averaged 76 scrimmage yards. In their ten wins, they have averaged 144.7. Correlation vs causation will come for me, but for the most part, when the team can get Harris and Warren rolling, they win.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carolina | 22 | Xavier Legette | 9 | 5-28-0 | 40.91% |
Adam Thielen | 6 | 5-110-2 | 27.27% | ||
Jalen Coker | 2 | 2-35-0 | 9.09% | ||
Cleveland | 43 | Jerry Jeudy | 18 | 12-94-0 | 41.86% |
Jordan Akins | 8 | 6-49-0 | 18.60% | ||
Pierre Strong Jr. | 5 | 3-15-0 | 11.63% | ||
Chicago | 26 | Keenan Allen | 8 | 5-25-0 | 30.77% |
DJ Moore | 8 | 6-54-0 | 30.77% | ||
D'Andre Swift | 5 | 4-28-0 | 19.23% | ||
Jacksonville | 21 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 10 | 7-91-1 | 47.62% |
Parker Washington | 3 | 3-31-1 | 14.29% | ||
Travis Etienne Jr. | 2 | 1-26-0 | 9.52% | ||
LA Rams | 28 | Puka Nacua | 14 | 10-129-0 | 50.00% |
Cooper Kupp | 3 | 1-29-0 | 10.71% | ||
Kyren Williams | 3 | 3-16-0 | 10.71% | ||
NY Giants | 22 | Malik Nabers | 8 | 7-171-2 | 36.36% |
Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 5-71-1 | 27.27% | ||
Darius Slayton | 3 | 1-32-1 | 13.64% | ||
Philadelphia | 18 | DeVonta Smith | 7 | 6-120-2 | 38.89% |
A.J. Brown | 5 | 3-36-1 | 27.78% | ||
Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 1-34-0 | 11.11% |
The Thielen revolution continues. Thielen has been WR15 since returning from injury in Week 12, with his best game in Week 17. Thielen became the 46th player in NFL history with 500+ receiving yards and 5+ touchdowns at age 34 or older.
The explosive plays are out of the Browns offense with Jameis Winston on the bench, but Jeudy powered through with a career-high 18 targets. That tied multiple players for the third-most targets in any 2024 game. It also ties Kellen Winslow Jr. with the second most targets in Browns' franchise history, trailing only a 19-target game by Josh Gordon in Week 3, 2013. Jeudy's 84 receptions and 1,166 yards are both career-best numbers. Jeudy needs five receptions to tie the Browns franchise record 89, held by Ozzie Newsome and Winslow. His yardage is the sixth most for the franchise. Braylon Edwards' 1,289, the second-highest total, is only 124 yards away.
Moore, Allen, and Rome Odunze recorded the third season in Bears history with three receivers over 700 yards. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett hit the numbers in 2013 and 2014, with Matt Forte joining them to make four in the 2014 season. At 89 receptions, Moore needs seven more to tie his career high, established in 2023. Odunze and Mike Ditka are the only Bears rookies with 50+ receptions and 700+ yards. Odunze's 52 receptions are the fifth most by a Bears rookie, with Forte's 63 leading the franchise.
At 80-1,179-10, Thomas owns every Jaguars rookie record. Chase and Odell Beckham Jr are the only rookies to join Thomas with 80+ receptions, 1,100+ yards, and 10+ touchdowns. Thomas's 10 touchdowns tie a pack of three other Jaguars for the second most in team history behind Allen Robinson II's 14.
Nacua has 990 yards in 11 games. That includes a game against Seattle where he was ejected early with 11 yards and a 35-yard Week 1 performance where he only played 32% of the snaps. Removing those two games gives him 17.7 PPG, suitable for WR2 behind Chase's 19.9. He should be in the conversation to be WR2 in 2025 drafts.
Bowers set the rookie record with 108 receptions. His record may only stand a week as Nabers posted his 104th. Nabers has posted his numbers in just 14 games. Nabers, Bowers, Nacua, and Anquan Boldin are the only rookies with 100+ receptions and 1,100+ yards.
Smith set a new career high with eight touchdowns. He has 833 yards in just 13 games. The team's passing volume was down, but Smith and Brown were again top 17 receiver options in fantasy.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 45 | Trey McBride | 16 | 12-123-1 | 35.56% |
Marvin Harrison Jr.. | 10 | 6-96-0 | 22.22% | ||
Michael Wilson | 6 | 4-22-0 | 13.33% | ||
Cincinnati | 49 | Ja'Marr Chase | 15 | 9-102-0 | 30.61% |
Tee Higgins | 12 | 11-131-3 | 24.49% | ||
Mike Gesicki | 12 | 10-86-0 | 24.49% | ||
Green Bay | 29 | Romeo Doubs | 11 | 7-58-0 | 37.93% |
Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 4-43-0 | 17.24% | ||
Bo Melton | 4 | 3-18-0 | 13.79% | ||
Kansas City | 38 | Travis Kelce | 11 | 8-84-1 | 28.95% |
Xavier Worthy | 9 | 8-79-1 | 23.68% | ||
Marquise Brown | 7 | 4-46-0 | 18.42% | ||
Las Vegas | 35 | Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 5-61-1 | 25.71% |
Tre Tucker | 8 | 2-24-1 | 22.86% | ||
Brock Bowers | 7 | 7-77-0 | 20.00% | ||
Miami | 24 | Tyreek Hill | 9 | 9-105-0 | 37.50% |
Malik Washington | 5 | 4-41-0 | 20.83% | ||
Jonnu Smith | 4 | 3-26-1 | 16.67% | ||
NY Jets | 31 | Davante Adams | 8 | 5-47-0 | 25.81% |
Garrett Wilson | 8 | 7-66-1 | 25.81% | ||
Tyler Conklin | 8 | 8-57-1 | 25.81% | ||
Seattle | 22 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 3-32-0 | 27.27% |
Noah Fant | 5 | 4-43-0 | 22.73% | ||
Tyler Lockett | 4 | 3-20-0 | 18.18% |
McBride scored a touchdown! He can officially be removed from a dubious honor. He is the 11th tight end with 100+ receptions and 1,000+ yards in NFL history. His 104 receptions are 11 behind DeAndre Hopkins team record 115. McBride is 124 yards behind Jackie Smith's 1,205 for a Cardinals tight end season.
Chase and Higgins became the fifth Bengals teammates to catch ten touchdowns in the same season. It has happened 38 times in NFL history. The Broncos in 2014 are the only team with four teammates to hit double digits, with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker doing it. The 2004 Colts are the only team with three: Marvin Harrison Jr., Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.
The Packers have four receivers between 73 and 63 targets, with Jayden Reed, Doubs, Wicks, and Kraft in that range, and Christian Watson is trailing at 52. This distribution, combined with Jordan Love dropping from 34 attempts per game to 29.5, has limited the overall fantasy utility of any Packers receiving option. Reed has the most fantasy points, ranking as WR24 in total points, with Doubs at WR52, Watson at WR68, and Wicks at WR74. Kraft is the biggest surprise and likely the best fantasy option, ranking at TE7. Interestingly, Love has seen his touchdown rate, QBR, and passer rating all increase from 2023, and his yards per game are only down by seven despite the decrease in attempts.
In Weeks 9 and 10, Worthy combined for one reception, one scrimmage yard, and two rush attempts. In Week 11, the Chiefs lost to Buffalo. In the seven games since Week 11, Worthy has averaged 7.9 targets, 5.6 receptions, 56 yards, 1.6 rush attempts, and 9.6 rush yards. He has 31 targets and ten rush attempts over the last three games. Worthy has been WR10 over those three weeks during the fantasy playoffs.
Bowers deservedly gets the praise, but Meyers has been excellent, posting a career-high 904 receiving yards in 14 games. He took a back seat to Bowers and Davante Adams in the first two weeks, but since Week 3, he has been WR26 at 11.6 PPG. With the Raiders circling on a high-upside rookie quarterback, Bowers and Meyers should be pieces to target in 2025.
Hill posted his second-most receptions and third-highest yardage total of 2024. At 931 yards, he is one good game away from 1,000 yards for his fifth consecutive season. Smith has his best career season with 79 receptions, 828 yards, and seven touchdowns. Sitting inside the prime production window for tight ends, he should be projected for heavy involvement in 2025.
Wilson has been labeled as a 2024 disappointment by some in fantasy circles. He posted his best season with 97 receptions, 1,053 yards and seven touchdowns. It is his third 1,000-yard season to start his career. At WR22 with 12.1 PPG, Wilson has been a steady compiler compared to the spike player many took with a first-round pick. Adams needs 25 yards to extend a four-year 1,000-yard streak despite missing three games with injury.
Smith-Njigba bounced back from a disappointing rookie year to post 96 receptions, 1,121 yards, and six touchdowns. He can get to an even 100 with four receptions and tie Tyler Lockett's franchise single-season record.
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | 35 | Drake London | 13 | 7-106-0 | 37.14% |
Kyle Pitts | 5 | 4-44-1 | 14.29% | ||
Darnell Mooney | 5 | 2-37-0 | 14.29% | ||
Baltimore | 16 | Zay Flowers | 5 | 2-31-0 | 31.25% |
Mark Andrews | 2 | 2-68-1 | 12.50% | ||
Derrick Henry | 2 | 2-18-0 | 12.50% | ||
Buffalo | 27 | Keon Coleman | 7 | 3-27-1 | 25.93% |
Khalil Shakir | 6 | 3-25-0 | 22.22% | ||
Amari Cooper | 3 | 3-56-1 | 11.11% | ||
Dallas | 29 | Brandin Cooks | 8 | 4-52-0 | 27.59% |
Jake Ferguson | 5 | 3-18-0 | 17.24% | ||
Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 3-30-1 | 13.79% | ||
Denver | 31 | Courtland Sutton | 9 | 5-55-1 | 29.03% |
Marvin Mims Jr. | 8 | 8-103-2 | 25.81% | ||
Adam Trautman | 3 | 1-5-0 | 9.68% | ||
Detroit | Monday | Amon-Ra St. Brown | |||
Sam LaPorta | |||||
Jameson Williams | |||||
Houston | 31 | John Metchie III | 8 | 5-48-0 | 25.81% |
Nico Collins | 6 | 3-59-0 | 19.35% | ||
Dalton Schultz | 6 | 2-21-0 | 19.35% | ||
Indianapolis | 37 | Michael Pittman Jr. | 10 | 9-109-1 | 27.03% |
Alec Pierce | 9 | 6-122-1 | 24.32% | ||
Kylen Granson | 4 | 3-34-0 | 10.81% | ||
LA Chargers | 40 | Ladd McConkey | 10 | 8-94-2 | 25.00% |
Quentin Johnston | 8 | 5-48-0 | 20.00% | ||
Joshua Palmer | 6 | 4-41-0 | 15.00% | ||
Minnesota | 41 | Justin Jefferson | 11 | 8-92-0 | 26.83% |
Jordan Addison | 8 | 6-69-1 | 19.51% | ||
T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 5-68-0 | 14.63% | ||
New Orleans | 34 | Juwan Johnson | 10 | 6-66-0 | 29.41% |
Foster Moreau | 5 | 3-47-1 | 14.71% | ||
Dante Pettis | 4 | 3-27-0 | 11.76% | ||
Tampa Bay | 32 | Mike Evans | 9 | 8-97-2 | 28.13% |
Jalen McMillan | 5 | 5-51-2 | 15.63% | ||
Bucky Irving | 4 | 4-77-0 | 12.50% | ||
Washington | 35 | Olamide Zaccheaus | 9 | 8-85-1 | 25.71% |
Zach Ertz | 7 | 6-72-2 | 20.00% | ||
Terry McLaurin | 7 | 1-5-0 | 20.00% |
With 12.4 points, Pitts posted his second-best fantasy day of the season. His game-tying touchdown late in regulation could shed light on his lack of usage as Michael Penix Jr. hit a layered throw with velocity over the middle of the field that Kirk Cousins likely would struggle to replicate. Pitts could do enough to convince fantasy managers to buy in again if he duplicates this performance in Week 18.
Andrews has tied his career high with ten touchdowns, scoring in five consecutive games. He is an enigma for many managers, given a career-low target rate and age 30 season looming. At 9.2 fantasy points, he is tied with Travis Kelce for TE7. Flowers has become the primary receiver, and Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely provide competition. However, Andrews is still a high-leverage target who would see increased volume if Flowers missed time.
The Bills run nine deep with credible skill targets. Speaking to their depth, Marquez Valdes-Scantling struggled to make it onto the field before being released and becoming a leading receiving option for the Saints. 13 different receivers have touchdown receptions, which would tie Matt Ryan's MVP 2016 season for the most unique touchdown receivers. However, Tyrell Shavers' Week 17 touchdown came from Mitch Trubisky.
CeeDee Lamb was shut down for the season, and any credible Dallas passing attack with him.
Mims had been a quiet second-half breakout player. An 8-103-2 island game with significant playoff implications will change that quiet part. Over the first eight games, he saw 13 targets total. Starting in Week 10, when he first saw backfield usage, he has 32 targets for 396 yards, four touchdowns, 12 rush attempts, and a 17-game pace of 66-962-10. Based on his snap usage, he is still a part-time player, as he has not exceeded 50% of the share in a game. The Broncos played 12 different skill players in Week 17, heavily rotating their personnel for scheme situations. The breakout could push Mims into a near-every-down player in 2025.
The Texans added Diontae Johnson before Week 16, but the tight turnaround to a Wednesday kickoff prevented them from getting him acclimated. With a long week and no stakes on the Week 18 game against Tennessee, expect them to work him in with a purpose. The lack of a secondary playmaker pushed Metchie to the forefront and allowed the Ravens to lock down on Collins. Metchie is not there as a secondary piece at this point in his career. Any hope the Texans have on a playoff run needs Johnson to get comfortable and help C.J. Stroud rebound.
Joe Flacco started, which means the Colts' passing attack worked. Unfortunately, their defense did not, and the 45 points the Giants posted with Drew Lock ended the Colts' playoff chances. At 767 receiving yards, Pierce is the shocking team leader. He will enter a contract season in 2025, and it will be worth watching to see how the team handles his status combined with wanting to get rookie Adonai Mitchell more work.
At 77-1,054-7, McConkey passed Keenan Allen's franchise rookie records of 71 receptions and 1,046 yards. McConkey would tie Allen's rookie mark of eight with one more touchdown. McConkey is one of only eight rookies who have hit 77 receptions with 1,000+ yards and 7+ touchdowns.
Jefferson's 100 receptions and 1,479 yards are the third-best, while his ten touchdowns tie a career-high. Addison is at 875 yards and nine touchdowns. There have been 17 seasons with teammates at 1,000 yards and 10+ touchdowns, none since the Seahawks' Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and the Chiefs' Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce did it in 2020. The Vikings have done it twice, with Cris Carter and Randy Moss in 1998 and 1999.
The Saints' leading receiver is not shocking on second thought. Alvin Kamara leads the team with 68 receptions and 543 yards. Their injuries have been well documented as 17 players caught a pass. Moreau leads the team with five receiving touchdowns. Chris Olave could play in Week 18, but this is a forgettable season.
Evans needs 85 yards to extend the most publicized streak in the NFL; his 1,000 yards to start a career. The record is ten. Jerry Rice has the overall record with 14 seasons. Of late, McMillan is the story. He totaled 27 targets in the first 13 weeks, with 13 receptions, 145 yards, and one touchdown, scored in Week 1 on his first reception. Over the last four weeks, he has 25 targets, 19 receptions, 242 yards, and six touchdowns. His 17-game pace over those four weeks would be 81 receptions, 1,028 yards, and 26 touchdowns—A Record. Devin Culp and Payne Durham split time with Cameron Brate out. Both are promising young tight ends who could cloud Cade Otton's future.
At 61 receptions, 610 yards, and six touchdowns, Ertz has his best season since 2021. He is the seventh tight end in franchise history with a 60-600-6 year. The Commanders have cycled through receivers opposite McLaurin, with Noah Brown and Dyami Brown going down due to injuries. Zaccheaus is now third on the team with 43 receptions, 455 yards, and three touchdowns. He has posted 13-155-3 in the last two weeks in Revenge spots against the Eagles and Falcons.
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | 23 | DeMario Douglas | 5 | 4-46-1 | 21.74% |
Kayshon Boutte | 5 | 4-28-0 | 21.74% | ||
Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 2-22-0 | 17.39% | ||
Pittsburgh | 35 | Pat Freiermuth | 8 | 7-60-0 | 22.86% |
George Pickens | 7 | 3-50-0 | 20.00% | ||
Jaylen Warren | 6 | 5-41-0 | 17.14% | ||
San Francisco | Monday | George Kittle | |||
Deebo Samuel Sr. | |||||
Jauan Jennings | |||||
Tennessee | 30 | Chig Okonkwo | 7 | 5-42-0 | 23.33% |
Calvin Ridley | 6 | 5-84-0 | 20.00% | ||
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 6 | 3-37-0 | 20.00% |
The Patriots will hit the 2025 offseason with two significant tasks: building the offensive line and completing the receiving room. Drake Maye has shown enough as a rookie to inspire confidence. He became the first rookie since Justin Herbert in 2020 to throw touchdown passes in eight consecutive games. Douglas, Boutte, Bourne, and rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker are all signed through the next two seasons. The team could release Bourne, spreading a $1.4 million cap hit in 2025 and 2026 while saving $6.5 million. The team has to find a top-receiving option, either in free agency or the draft. Hitting that will allow the rest of the room to fall into place. Douglas has flashed as an NFL slot, and Boutte, Polk, and Baker can compete for the WR2 role.
The Steelers tight end room of Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Connor Heyward are locked up. Pickens, Calvin Austin III, and Roman Wilson are the only receivers signed past 2024. Wilson is the only one signed past 2025. A large extension is looming for Pickens. Pickens is 100 yards away from 1,000.
Okonkwo continued his strong play. He has been TE8 since Week 12. Bowers, Kelce, McBride, Njoku, Otton, and Jonnu Smith are the other tight ends to match Okonkwo's 22 receptions in a three-game span this season.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Aaron Rodgers - 2.5 points
- RB: Isiah Pacheco - 1.8 points
- RB: De'Von Achane - 4.8 points
- RB: Joe Mixon - 4.9 points
- WR: Jayden Reed - 1.1 points
- WR: DeAndre Hopkins - 1.7 points
- WR: Rome Odunze - 2.0 points
- WR: Cooper Kupp - 3.4 points
- WR: Zay Flowers - 4 points
- TE: Hunter Henry - 0 points
This week's lineup posted 26.2 points.
Talk entering the week centered on Rodgers' 500th touchdown pass as he sat on 499. It turns out that throwing touchdown passes is difficult. He will try to reach the milestone in Week 18. Pacheco, Achane, Mixon, Reed, Hopkins, Kupp, and Flowers are all on playoff-contending teams; their game plans featured talented teammates at their expense. Odunze was stuck in a game offense forgot on a sloppy Thursday night. Henry hit a potential revenge spot against the Chargers but was quiet for a Patriots offense that struggled.
Tee Higgins, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Drew Lock, and Lamar Jackson were the players who beat it.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 17
- RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota vs. Green Bay, Won 27-25, 47 rush yards, four receptions, 30 receiving yards.
- QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay vs. Carolina, Won 48-14, 359 passing yards, five touchdowns, two rushing yards.
- TE Hunter Henry, New England vs. LA Chargers, Lost 40-7, no stats
- WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee vs. Jacksonville, Lost 20-13, five receptions, 84 receiving yards.
- RB Ty Johnson, Buffalo vs. NY Jets, Won 40-14, 16 rush yards, one reception, nine yards.
- WR David Moore, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay, Lost 48-14, one reception, 17 yards.
- QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta vs. Washington, Lost 30-24, no stats
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh
- TE Gerald Everett, Chicago vs. Seattle
- WR Jalen Reagor, LA Chargers vs. New England, Won 40-7, no stats
- TE Eric Tomlinson, LA Chargers vs. New England, Won 40-7, no stats
- QB Marcus Mariota, Washington vs. Atlanta, Won 30-24, no stats
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Washington vs. Atlanta, Won 30-24, eight receptions, 85 yards, one touchdown
- QB Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets vs. Buffalo, Lost 40-14, 83 passing yards, two touchdowns, six rushing yards.
- WR Josh Reynolds, Jacksonville vs. Tennessee, Won 20-13, no stats
- WR Deven Thompkins, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay, Lost 48-14, no stats
- TE Robert Tonyan Jr, Minnesota vs. Green Bay, Won 27-25, no stats
And Bluesky too!
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