The Monday NFL Roundup: Week 17

Just two(ish) weeks remain in the NFL regular season. 

In most fantasy football leagues, just one. 

No team starts Week 17 with its position locked up, which gives the top teams across the league plenty of motivation.  The end of this article features a big-picture view of the playoff picture in each conference. 

We will feature a game-by-game, player-by-player Motivation guide for Week 18's schedule.

What happened in Week 16 to get us here?

Thank you, Nathan Jahnke. 

And now, The Roundup.

Deep League Waiver Watch List

"Waivers of the Future," released after this column, provides in-depth coverage of waivers. Below is a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues. 

• RB Rasheen Ali, Baltimore (42% Sleeper rostered)
• RB Jermar Jefferson, Detroit (0% Sleeper rostered)
• RB Michael Carter, Arizona (9% Sleeper rostered)
• QB Kenny Pickett, Philadelphia (26% Sleeper rostered)
• QB Mitchell Trubisky, Buffalo (9% Sleeper rostered)

Stats Of The Week

• 133.5 rushing yards - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley jumped back on pace to break Eric Dickerson's mark of 2,105 rush yards with a 150-yard game in Week 16. At 1,838 yards, 133.5 is the number he needs to average over the final two weeks for the record. Barkley hit 2,114 scrimmage yards against the Commanders, breaking his previous high of 2,028 set his rookie year. His 15 touchdowns tie his previous season high. 

• 150 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley tied nine other backs with his fifth 100+ yard and two touchdown games of the season. LaDainian Tomlinson holds the record with eight in 2006. Sixteen players have hit the 100-2 mark five or more times in a season, with Derrick Henry's 2020 season being the last. If we narrow the scope to 146 rushing yards, Barkley has hit 146-2 four times. That ties Tomlinson, Henry, Walter Payton, and Jim Brown for the most in NFL history. 

• 335 rushing yards - Indianapolis Colts - Jonathan Taylor's 218 were the second-most yards of his career as the Colts broke a franchise record with 335 team rushing yards. Taylor was one behind Edgerrin James' 219 in 2000 for the second-best total in franchise history, with his 253 in Week 17 of 2021, the team record. Taylor was also the second-highest total of 2024, with Barkley's 255 in Week 12, the high water mark. 

• 100 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards - Bowers - Bowers entered Week 16 with the rookie tight end receptions record. Bowers needs ten yards to break Mike Ditka's rookie yardage record of 1,076. Bowers joined Puka Nacua, Anquan Boldin, and Jaylen Waddle as rookies with 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. Bowers needs four more receptions to break Nacua's record for 105 catches as a rookie.

• 11,000 rushing yards - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore - Henry became the 22nd player in NFL history with 11,000 yards, topping LeSean McCoy on the career list in the process. At 11,138 yards, O.J. Simpson's 11,236 is next up.

• 7,000 rushing yards - Barkley - Barkley became the 68th player with 7,000 career rushing yards. He leapt over Aaron Jones on his big day. 

• 1,000 rushing yards - RB James Conner, Arizona / RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota / RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee / Taylor - Four more backs joined the 1,000-yard club, pushing the total to 11. That trails 2023's total by one, but seven other players have 900 yards with two games left. 

• 1,000 receiving yards - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle / WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville / TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas / WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia / WR Terry McLaurin, Washington / WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore - The 1,000-yard club more than doubled in Week 16, pushing to 11 for the year. That trails well behind 2023 when 28 players hit the mark. 

• 100 receptions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati / WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas / WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit / TE Brock Bowers / Las Vegas - Four players topped 100 receptions on the season in Week 16. This also lags well behind 2023, when 12 players hit the marks. 

Backfield Hierarchy

Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.

Bellcows

• Hill had a scary concussion against the Steelers. Given the quick turnaround to a Wednesday game, it would take a lot to see him in Week 17. In Hill's absence and playing with a significant lead, the Ravens leaned on Henry for his largest snap share of the season. He responded with his third-highest rushing total of 2024 and 189 scrimmage yards, his second-best. At 1,636 rushing yards, Henry looks locked into the second-best single-season total in franchise history behind Jamal Lewis's 2,066.  He also seems locked into second in the 2024 rushing crown behind Barkley's 1,838. Ali stepped into Hill's absence, with Keaton Mitchell again inactive. Ali is worth adding to the deepest leagues, especially ones who play Week 18, but he is not startable in Week 17. 

• Hubbard recorded his seventh game of 90+ rushing yards and 4+ receptions in 2024. It was the seventh time Hubbard hit those thresholds, tying him with Priest Holmes' 2003 season. Tomlinson and Deuce McAllister have the most in a season, with eight games in the same 2003 season. Hubbard's 1,195 yards are the fourth most by a Panthers back, trailing third-place Christian McCaffrey's 1,387 in 2019. At 1,195 yards and 43 receptions, Hubbard is approaching some rare territory. There have been 69 backs with 1,300 rush yards and 50 receptions in a season. No player in NFL history has as many receptions as Hubbard's 43 with as few receiving yards as his 171. No player in NFL history has 40 receptions without hitting 200 yards. Harold Green is the closest, with 214 yards on 41 receptions in 1992. Social media pushes back on my weird numbers and thresholds. They are arbitrary and only used to group players. They are also fun. We do not need fun police. 

• There is little fun for Swift. He has dominated touches for weeks, with no other Bears back seeing more than three opportunities since Week 11. Despite that Bellcow role, Swift is only RB40 at 7.4 PPG over the last five weeks. Still, he is on pace for the best yardage season of his career - at 1,199 scrimmage yards, he needs 65 for a new career high. With 159 rushing yards, he would hit 1,000 in back-to-back seasons. He has the 20th season with 840+ rush yards, 35+ receptions, and 350+ yards in Bears history and first since David Montgomery in 2020. Matt Forte (7 seasons), Walter Payton (7), Neal Anderson (3), and Thomas Jones (1) are the only other Bears to hit those numbers. 

• Brown continued his stranglehold on the Bengals' backfield, hitting 100 scrimmage yards for the fifth consecutive game. Brown is 77 yards from the 1,000 threshold. His 1,259 scrimmage yards are the 37th highest in team history. Since Zack Moss was injured in Week 8, Brown has averaged 80.5 rush yards, 4.86 receptions, and 39.29 receiving yards, a 17-game pace of 1,369 - 82.5 - 667.9. 

• Ford tied his career high with 131 scrimmage yards. D'Ernest Johnson (2021) is the only other Browns back since 2012 to record 90+ rush yards, 5+ receptions, and 35+ receiving yards in a game. It was the 25th time in franchise history those numbers were hit. Jim Brown (5) and Greg Pruitt (5) are the only backs who have done it more than twice for the team. 

• The Buccaneers shut down the Cowboys' run game, though Dowdle inched closer to 1,000 yards with 903 on the season. Elliott vultured a touchdown, leaving Dowdle on one for the season. Elliott's 71 career rushing touchdowns are one behind Tony Dorsett for second on the team's record book. Elliott has 83 career Cowboys touchdowns, trailing Dorsett's 86. Emmitt Smith holds the team records with 153 rushing touchdowns and 164 total touchdowns.

• As expected, Gibbs stepped into the Bellcow role. The Lions cycled three backs behind him. Reynolds doubled Vaki and Jefferson in snaps (10 to 5), but the three-back rotation suggests the backfield would be wide open if Gibbs misses time. The Lions can have a meaningless Week 18 game scenario, opening up production in leagues that play then, but expect all three backs to see touches in that scenario. Gibbs and Billy Sims are the only Lions backs with 1,150+ rush yards, 12+ touchdowns, 40+ receptions, and 400+ receiving yards in a season. Christian McCaffrey (2023) and Jacobs (2022) are the only backs to hit those numbers since 2020, with 40 seasons in NFL history over those thresholds. Gibbs has 70+ scrimmage yards in all 15 games, tying Barry Sanders' franchise record for games above that mark. 

• Mixon needs 33 more yards for 1,000. The Texans' offense ran into the brutal Chiefs' defense, limiting their rushing opportunities. The Ravens are another stingy run defense, and a loss in Week 17 locks the Texans into the fourth seed, giving little Week 18 motivation for a player working through injury. Ogunbowale comfortably plays ahead of Pierce for a potential Week 18 production scenario. 

• Taylor played with an extra gear after his costly goal line drop in Week 16. His 218 yards were the second-best of his career. His 39.8 fantasy points are the third-highest total in 2024. His day boosted his season total to 1,129, the third-best of his career, and his three touchdowns pushed his total to eight for the year, also his third-best total. 

• The Chargers run game has sputtered since JK Dobbins injury in Week 12. Edwards finally clicked for his best day. Dobbins is eligible to return from IR in Week 17, but Jim Harbaugh has a tight-lipped policy on injuries, and he has not practiced. Vidal has plenty clambering for him as the young "mystery box," but the 2025 draft class is loaded at running back, and the franchise is almost sure to make some additions given the struggles without Dobbins.  There has been no indication Vidal will play ahead of Edwards (or Dobbins). It is best to capitalize in situations like this while air is in the mystery balloon. 

• Williams had his best yardage day, with 122, pushing his season total to 1,243. There have been eight seasons in franchise history with 1,200+ rush yards and 13+ touchdowns. 

• Jones topped 1,000 yards in a "grind it out" weather game against Seattle. It is the fourth time in his last seven seasons he has topped 1,000. He is 14 yards from 7,000 for his career. 

• Tracy and Saquon Barkley are the only Giants rookies to rush for 700 yards with 250 receiving yards.  Tracy needs 109 yards to tie Tuffy Leemans' 830 for the second-best season by a Giants rookie. Barkley hit 1,307 in his rookie season. Tracy made a highlight catch in the back of the end zone for his first career receiving touchdown. Given his background as a receiver, there is still untapped potential.   

• Hall needs 226 yards for his first 1,000-yard season. He topped 750 rush yards, 50 receptions, and 450 receiving yards for a consecutive season. He became the first player in franchise history to hit those marks twice, with Le'Veon Bell, Curtis Martin, Adrian Murrell, and Johnny Johnson III recording one season each at those thresholds. 

• Lots of goodness on Barkley in the Stats of the Week section. Barkley bounced back from a quiet Week 15; his 29 touches were the third most in 2024. Gainwell dropped back down after seeing ten touches last week. 

• Walker returned to a Bellcow workshare. With McIntosh working before him, Charbonnet did not receive a touch until late in the third quarter. In Week 14 of 2023, Jayden Reed is the only other player since 2019 to match Walker's eight receptions with only 28 yards. Walker had his third game of seven receptions or more, the second-best total of any running back in 2024 behind De'Von Achane's five. Three is the most for a Seahawks running back in a season, tying Shaun Alexander, Jonathan Williams, and Sherman Smith. 

Committee With A Lead

• Conner's big day ended early with an injury. Carter took most of the work after Conner left after being elevated from the practice squad. The loss eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention. Trey Benson missed with an injury after being a game-time decision the last two weeks. If he is in and Conner is out, expect Benson to lead. Without either, it would be Carter in a late-season fantasy hero role. 

• Robinson followed a 125-yard game on Monday night of Week 15 with a 94-2 Week 16. Robinson averaged 87.2 scrimmage yards over the first five games. He has topped 100 in 9 of 10 since, averaging 118. Robinson has the 35th season with 1,100+ rush yards, 10+ touchdowns, 55+ receptions, and 400+ yards. The blowout nature of the Falcons win allowed both backs to see work. Most of any concern about this backfield split has been alleviated over the second half of the season. 

• Cook has been red hot, topping 100 yards in three of the last four games. Over his first ten, he averaged 13.7 attempts and 59.6. In his hot streak, he is at 11.25 and 83. His 14 rush touchdowns tie with Jalen Hurts, and 16 total touchdowns tie with Ja'Marr Chase for the league lead in both categories. Cook needs 72 yards for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. 

• In NFL history, Achane recorded the 38th game of 120+ rush yards, 6+ receptions, and 70+ receiving yards. McCaffrey and Jacobs are the only players since 2020 to hit those marks. Achane became the Dolphins running back reception record holder, with 76 catches topping Terry Kirby's record 75. 

• Bellcow Bucky? Irving came close, with a tight grip on rush attempts. Snap shares were still equal, and White saved his day. The swing toward Irving and a costly fumble late by White could see the shift move even harder in that direction. 

• Robinson had a difficult day for the Commanders, losing two fumbles. The team played the second half in catch-up mode and abandoned the run game—one of the worst fantasy games of the week for Robinson. 

True Committees

• Ken Walker III's 8-28 receiving day saved a search on Williams's 7-29 game. Despite a red zone score and a significant lead in rush attempts, Williams still significantly outsnapped Estime by a 33 to 13 margin. Williams had his best fantasy game since Week 11 at 53 scrimmage yards. 

• Jacksonville's usage looked similar to Denver's. Etienne heavily out-snapped Bigsby (35 to 19), but Bigsby had more rush attempts and converted in the red zone for a better fantasy day. 

• Hunt took the lead role back from Pacheco. Pacheco has not looked strong since returning, averaging just 3.14 yards per rush, and saw his lowest rush and snap total. Hunt scored to give managers a usable fantasy day. None of us thought we would see a day when the top running back in a Patrick Mahomes II offense is a touchdown-dependent flex consideration. 

• The Steelers have faced a string of difficult opponents, which has led to Warren pulling ahead in the backfield given his receiving ability. Over the last three games, Warren has 97 snaps to Harris's 58. With the Chiefs bringing fantasy football's best defense against running backs in Week 17, there is little reason to expect change. Harris belongs on fantasy benches, and Warren is a risky player in title games. 

• Taylor is a fourth-string running back for a reason. Given Elijah Mitchell's loss before the season, he would not usually be at that level. He dominated snaps, though Samuel saw a much higher backfield usage rate than usual. It was Samuel's best fantasy day of 2024 and first game over 10.7 points since Week 6. The 49ers playoff hopes ended in Week 16, and there is little reason to rush a young back like Isaac Guerendo off injury. Taylor has a low floor and low ceiling for a back playing 80% of the snaps, and it is unlikely many will face a start/sit decision with him in Week 17. 

• Pollard pushed over 1,000 yards during the season, but Spears exploded again. With 44.3 points over the last two weeks, Spears has been the overall RB5 during the fantasy playoffs. The Titans are happy with Pollard's season, but Spears' emergence forces them to re-evaluate the backfield in 2025. 

The Target Report

Due to schedule restrictions, this section will be updated later with the complete breakdown you have come to expect. I apologize for the delay and inconvenience. 

The Landmine Lineup

We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!

• QB: Matthew Stafford - 7.0 points
• RB: Brian Robinson Jr. - 1.1 points
• RB: Patrick Taylor Jr. - 3 points
• WR: Amari Cooper - 1.5 points
• WR: Jalen Coker - 1.8 points
• WR: Michael Pittman Jr. - 2.9 points
• WR: Jerry Jeudy - 3 points
• TE: Kyle Pitts - 1.2 points
• TE: Brenton Strange - 1.2 points

This week's lineup posted 22.7 points. 

The Rams passing attack struggled, and Stafford had his worst game since Week 7. Robinson fumbled twice, contributing to the Commanders' early deficit. Jeudy cooled off with the absence of Jameis Winston. Cooper has struggled to establish himself in Buffalo outside of a 14 target Week 14. The Colts could lean on the run, which was their preferred outcome. Strange was one of the most disappointing outcomes following a breakout performance in Week 15. 

Jayden Daniels, Bryce Young, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes II, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Chuba Hubbard, Saquon Barkley, De'Von Achane, James Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Atlanta's defense were the players who beat it.

If you started this lineup, send me a message at bell@footballguys.com!

Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)

Week 16

• WR DeAndre Hopkins, Kansas City vs. Houston, Won 27-19, four receptions, 37 yards.
• RB D'Andre Swift, Chicago vs. Detroit, Lost 34-17, 20 rushing yards, three receptions, 33 receiving yards. 
• RB David Montgomery, Detroit vs. Chicago, Won 34-17, DNP.
• WR Allen Robinson II, Detroit vs. Chicago, Won 34-17, no stats.
• TE Zach Ertz, Washington vs. Philadelphia, Won 36-33, one reception, 12 yards.
• WR Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia vs. Washington, Lost 36-33, no stats.
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Washington vs. Philadelphia, Won 36-33, five receptions, 70 yards, two touchdowns. 
• QB Marcus Mariota, Washington vs. Philadelphia, Won 36-33, no stats.
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans vs. Green Bay, Monday.
• WR Equanimeous St. Brown, New Orleans vs. Green Bay, Monday.
• WR River Cracraft, Miami vs. San Francisco, Won 29-17, one reception, six yards.
• RB Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami vs San Francisco, Won 29-17, two rushes, 12 yards.
• TE Eric Tomlinson, LA Chargers vs. Denver, Won 34-27, no stats.
• K Cade York, Cincinnati vs. Cleveland, Won 24-6, 1 for 2 field goals, 3 for 3 extra points.

Week 17

• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh
• TE Gerald Everett, Chicago vs. Seattle
• WR Jalen Reagor, LA Chargers vs. New England
• TE Eric Tomlinson, LA Chargers vs. New England
• QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta vs. Washington
• QB Marcus Mariota, Washington vs. Atlanta
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Washington vs. Atlanta
• RB Ty Johnson, Buffalo vs. NY Jets
• QB Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets vs. Buffalo
• WR Josh Reynolds, Jacksonville vs. Tennessee
• WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
• QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
• WR David Moore, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
• WR Deven Thompkins, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
• TE Robert Tonyan Jr, Minnesota vs. Green Bay
• RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Playoff Picture

AFC

The Chiefs have the one seed with any win. The Bills can lock into the second seed before they step on the field in Week 17 with a Chiefs win and a Baltimore loss to the Texans on Christmas. The Chiefs would benefit significantly by beating Pittsburgh; the short week to accommodate scheduling Christmas would give the team nearly three weeks before their playoff game. The Bills locking into second would allow them time to rest Josh Allen, who has started to pile up injuries. A Bills win and a Chiefs loss keeps the top seed in play for Week 18.

A Steelers or Ravens win puts the Bills in the position of needing at least one more win to lock their spot. The Bills would not admit it, but they want to avoid the Ravens in Round 2. That doesn't look easy, given the remaining schedules for Pittsburgh and Baltimore. If the AFC North rivals end with the same record, the Steelers have the third seed. But Pittsburgh's schedule is significantly more difficult. It faces Kansas City and Cincinnati compared to Baltimore, where it sees Houston and Cleveland. 

Houston still has a chance to get the third seed if they win out and Pittsburgh loses to Kansas City or Cincinnati. The second-place AFC North team is in the playoffs. Two losses by Pittsburgh or Baltimore combined with two wins by the Chargers and Denver would move them to the seventh seed. The most likely outcome has the AFC North second-place team grabbing the fifth seed.

Neither the Chargers nor Broncos have clinched a spot despite their 9-6 records, sitting two games up on the pack of Miami, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati at 7-8. If the Chargers and Broncos lose out and the pack of three all win, a five-team pile-up at 9-8 would put the Colts and Dolphins into the playoffs. 

The Chargers (New England and Las Vegas), Indianapolis (NY Giants and Jacksonville), and Miami (Cleveland and NY Jets) face teams well out of the playoff picture. Denver (Cincinnati and Kansas City) and Cincinnati (Denver and Pittsburgh) have significantly more difficult matchups. 

Week 17's game between Denver and Cincinnati will either lock up the Broncos' playoff spot and eliminate the Bengals or make the close more interesting. The Chargers have the cleanest path. They swept Denver. One win or any two of the Colts or Dolphins losing once and the Broncos losing twice puts the Chargers in. The Bengals cannot jump the Chargers in any scenario due to their records and the Chargers' head-to-head win in Week 12. One Denver win clinches a playoff spot. 

Now for the chaos scenario. If the Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins, Colts, and Bengals all end the season at 9-8, the Colts and Dolphins would make the playoffs. The first tiebreaking scenario eliminates the second team in any division, in this case, Denver, based on their head-to-head record against the Chargers. The head-to-head sweep tiebreaker is not applicable. The conference record is next. In this scenario, the Colts would be 8-5, the Dolphins 7-6, and the Chargers 6-6. 

Given their relative positioning, the Colts' playoff odds are surprisingly strong. If they win out and Denver loses out, the Broncos would need Miami to lose once and Cincinnati to lose to the Steelers in Week 18 to claim the final spot. The Colts hold this position despite the Broncos' head-to-head Week 15 win. Due to the conference record, a three-way tie between the Colts, Broncos, Dolphins, or Bengals would land in the Colts' favor.  

The Bengals have one narrow path left: Win out, Denver loses twice, and Miami and Indianapolis both lose once. The Dolphins' path is similar: needing to win out, Denver to lose twice, and a Colts loss. The Dolphins win the tiebreaker over Cincinnati in a three-team scenario. 

NFC

Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota remain in the hunt for the number one seed. 

The Lions can lock everything up in Week 17 with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay and a Monday night win over San Francisco. The Lions would win any tiebreaker over the Vikings. A 2-0 finish and a 0-2 Lions finish is the Viking's only chance. Count on the Lions - Vikings as the Week 18 Sunday night capper with the Week 17 Vikings win, Lions lose scenario.

The second-place NFC North team is locked into the fifth seed.

The Eagles have the most challenging path. They need to win out, the Vikings to lose to the Packers in Week 17, and the Lions to lose out. A Vikings or Lions win in Week 17 locks the Eagles out of the one seed. 

If the Rams beat the Cardinals on Saturday night, they will win the NFC West. Seattle could still finish tied with the Rams via a Week 18 head-to-head matchup. That scenario would push the division to the fifth tiebreaker, the strength of victory. The Rams' wins over Minnesota and Buffalo give them the edge. 

Winning out gives the Rams the third seed. However, the Rams would lose a tiebreaker to Atlanta or Tampa Bay for the three-seed. Seattle would win the tiebreaker over Atlanta but lose the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay for the three-seed. 

Given their 2-0 head-to-head record, Atlanta holds the NFC South tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. The Falcons have new life after the Buccaneers' Sunday Night loss to Dallas and control their destiny. Winning out gives them the fourth seed. The Falcons' only path is the NFC South title. They need to win twice to catch Washington in record for the final wildcard spot, but winning twice would give them the division.

A win on Monday night puts the Packers into the playoffs. One more win locks the Commanders into the playoffs. Tampa Bay would grab the sixth seed, and the Packers would be eliminated if the Buccaneers, Commanders, and Packers all finish 10-7. The Commanders would have the six seed if they finish with the same record as Green Bay. The Seahawks could also finish 10-7 without a division title, but no tiebreaker scenario puts them into the wildcard.