If you are reading this, you have survived Bye-Mageddon 2024.
It was not just the fact that six teams were on a bye but also the loss of fantasy staples like Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and Ja'Marr Chase.
Oh, the Jets and Jaguars, but their fans deserved a break.
We knew this week was coming when we drafted, but like that ignored to-do list, those were problems for future versions of ourselves.
If fantasy football taught us anything, 11 weeks is enough time to find unexpected production. Luckily, Week 12 was full of the unexpected output.
Cooper Rush, Will Levis, and Bryce Young enter Monday inside the Top 12 quarterbacks of the week. Ameer Abdullah, Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, Roschon Johnson, and Devin Singletary sit inside the Top 20 running backs. David Moore, Calvin Austin III, Tre Tucker, and Jalen Tolbert delivered starting wide receiver production. Noah Gray, Austin Hooper, Chig Okonkwo, Luke Schoonmaker, and Cade Stover are all Top 10 tight ends.
Plenty of replacement production.
Just like we expected.
We know by now that nothing has happened as expected.
Thank you, Nathan Jahnke.
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
Player | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|
A | 8 | 162 | 1 |
B | 8 | 144 | 1 |
C | 6 | 81 | 1 |
D | 10 | 121 | 0 |
E | 9 | 86 | 1 |
It was an excellent week for the "supporting cast." Multiple star receivers had quiet weeks while the "Number 2" stepped up.
Can you place this production?
Deep League Waiver Watch List
"Waivers of the Future," released later in the week, provides in-depth coverage of waivers. Below is a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues.
- QB Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets (25% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Sincere McCormick, Las Vegas (0% Sleeper rostered)
- QB Brandon Allen, San Francisco (38% Sleeper rostered)
- QB Desmond Ridder, Las Vegas (25% Sleeper rostered)
- QB Nick Mullens, Minnesota (9% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Jeremy McNichols, Washington (14% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington (21% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Craig Reynolds, Detroit (4% Sleeper rostered)
- TE Tommy Tremble, Carolina (10% Sleeper rostered)
- TE Cade Stover, Houston (54% Sleeper rostered)
Stats Of The Week
275 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 74 rushing yards, 1 touchdown - QB Jayden Daniels, Washington - Welcome to a "Hot Dog" game. Anyone familiar with Blake Bortles in fantasy should understand this concept. We do not want to watch it made; we want to enjoy it. Daniels and Washington struggled all day. He had his first career two-interception game and was at his lowest yardage total since Week 1 before an 86-yard Terry McLaurin with 33 seconds remaining. None of that matters for our purposes. We only worry about QB1 on the week and Daniels's best fantasy game of the season.
340 passing yards, 2 touchdowns - QB Caleb Williams, Chicago - Over the previous four games, Williams averaged 175 passing yards, did not score a touchdown, and completed 58% of his passes. The sound you heard is the last great Buy Window of Williams' career slamming shut. He rebounded with 340 yards, leading a furious comeback that ultimately fell short for the second consecutive week and broke the touchdown drought. It is worth noting that despite his poor play, he did a great job of ball security; he now has 191 pass attempts since his last interception in Week 6.
106 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns - RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay - Jacobs became the 12th Packer to record 100+ rushing yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Jones (Week 5, 2019) and Dorsey Levens (Week 17, 2000) are the only other players to do it since 1988. Jacobs is on pace for 1,458 yards, Ahman Green is the franchise record holder at 1,883, and Jim Taylor is second at 1,474.
12 receptions, 133 yards - TE Trey McBride, Arizona - McBride became the 29th tight end with a 12+ reception, 130+ yard game. Travis Kelce, in Week 7, 2023, is the only other tight end to hit those marks since 2021.
60+ receptions, 600+ yards, 0 touchdowns - McBride - McBride moved on to a more dubious list. He is among four tight ends to top 60 receptions and 600 yards, joining Steven Jordan, Tyler Conklin, and Cole Kmet. Oddly enough, Conklin (2023) and Kmet (2021) joined the list recently, so Jordan stood alone for most of NFL history.
15 receptions, 188 yards, 3 touchdowns - TE Jonnu Smith, Miami - Smith became the 72nd tight end to post 15+ receptions, 188+ yards, and 3+ touchdowns over a two-game stretch. David Njoku was the only player to accomplish this in 2023, and Smith is the only one in 2024. Smith is up to TE4 this year and is trending even higher.
4 receiving touchdowns - TE Noah Gray, Kansas City - Gray posted two touchdowns for the second straight week. He became the 11th Chief to post four touchdowns in two weeks. Travis Kelce has two spans, bookending his career-high four touchdowns in Week 5, 2022, and a three-touchdown game in Week 11 that same season. Tyreek Hill was the only other Chief to do it during Patrick Mahomes II' tenure. Gray played just over half the snaps, but these were not a case of a forgotten player; Gray made strong catches in traffic.
Saquon Barkley Stats Of The Week
255 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 receptions, 47 receiving yards - Barkley broke the Eagles single-game franchise record with 255 rushing yards. LeSean McCoy's 217 yards against Detroit in 2013 was the previous mark.
302 scrimmage yards, 2 touchdowns - Barkley became the seventh player in NFL history to top 300 scrimmage yards with two touchdowns. Josh Jacobs, Adrian Peterson, and Priest Holmes have done it since 1985.
1,392 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns, 27 receptions, 257 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns - Barkley set his career high in rushing yards in Week 12, topping his previous high of 1,312 from 2022. He is one behind his career high in rushing touchdowns.
With 1,369 rushing yards - RB Eric Dickerson, LA Rams - Barkley has passed Dickerson's pace for his first 11 games with a team. Dickerson ended up with 1,808 yards in his first year with the Rams before posting his famous 2,105 yards in the following season.
1,541 rushing yards - RB Walter Payton, Chicago - Payton's 1,541 in 1977 are the most through the first 11 games of a season. Payton only played three more games, finishing the year at 1,852.
2,151 rushing yards, 397 receiving yards, 2,548 scrimmage yards - Barkley's pace through 17 games. Dickerson's 2,105 are the NFL record, and eight backs have hit 2,000 yards. Chris Johnson holds the record for scrimmage yards, with 2,509 in 2009.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
Bellcows
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | RB1 | James Conner | 7 | 5 | 7-8-0 / 5-41-0 | 70.59% |
RB2 | Trey Benson | 4 | 0 | 4-18-0 / 0 | 23.53% | |
RB3 | Emari Demercado | 1 | 0 | 1-14-0 / 0 | 5.88% | |
Atlanta | RB1 | Bijan Robinson | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Tyler Allgeier | |||||
RB3 | Jase McClellan | |||||
Carolina | RB1 | Chuba Hubbard | 16 | 5 | 16-58-1 / 1-2-0 | 91.30% |
RB2 | Jonathon Brooks | 2 | 0 | 2-7-0 / 0 | 8.70% | |
Chicago | RB1 | D'Andre Swift | 13 | 4 | 13-30-0 / 3-35-0 | 85.00% |
RB2 | Roschon Johnson | 2 | 1 | 2-2-1 / 1-10-0 | 15.00% | |
Cincinnati | RB1 | Chase Brown | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Khalil Herbert | |||||
Dallas | RB1 | Rico Dowdle | 19 | 3 | 19-86-0 / 3-12-0 | 88.00% |
RB2 | Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 0 | 3-6-0 / 0 | 12.00% | |
Green Bay | RB1 | Josh Jacobs | 26 | 1 | 26-106-3 / 0 | 67.50% |
RB2 | Emanuel Wilson | 9 | 0 | 9-41-0 / 0 | 22.50% | |
RB3 | Chris Brooks | 4 | 0 | 4-11-0 / 0 | 10.00% | |
Houston | RB1 | Joe Mixon | 14 | 6 | 14-22-0 / 5-23-0 | 100.00% |
RB2 | Dameon Pierce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
Indianapolis | RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | 11 | 0 | 11-35-0 / 0 | 100.00% |
RB2 | Trey Sermon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
Jacksonville | RB1 | Travis Etienne Jr. | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | D'Ernest Johnson | |||||
Kansas City | RB1 | Kareem Hunt | 16 | 4 | 16-68-0 / 3-19-0 | 76.92% |
RB2 | Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 1-4-0 / 1-9-0 | 11.54% | |
RB3 | Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 1-13-0 / 2-11-0 | 11.54% | |
LA Rams | RB1 | Kyren Williams | 16 | 0 | 16-72-1 / 0 | 94.12% |
RB2 | Blake Corum | 1 | 0 | 1-5-0 / 0 | 5.88% | |
Miami | RB1 | De'Von Achane | 10 | 4 | 10-32-0 / 3-24-2 | 56.00% |
RB2 | Raheem Mostert | 2 | 1 | 2-5-0 / 1-(3)-0 | 12.00% | |
RB3 | Jaylen Wright | 7 | 1 | 7-28-0 / 0 | 32.00% | |
Minnesota | RB1 | Aaron Jones | 22 | 4 | 22-106-1 / 3-23-0 | 86.67% |
RB2 | Cam Akers | 3 | 1 | 3-19-0 / 1-6-0 | 13.33% | |
NY Jets | RB1 | Breece Hall | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Braelon Allen | |||||
Philadelphia | RB1 | Saquon Barkley | 26 | 4 | 26-255-2 / 4-47-0 | 85.71% |
RB2 | Kenneth Gainwell | 5 | 0 | 5-22-1 / 0 | 14.29% | |
San Francisco | RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 4 | 11-31-0 / 3-37-0 | 75.00% |
RB2 | Jordan Mason | 3 | 2 | 3-8-0 / 1-5-0 | 25.00% | |
Seattle | RB1 | Ken Walker III | 16 | 6 | 16-41-0 / 4-52-0 | 78.57% |
RB2 | Zach Charbonnet | 6 | 0 | 6-22-0 / 0 | 21.43% | |
Tennessee | RB1 | Tony Pollard | 24 | 5 | 24-119-1 / 3-10-0 | 93.55% |
RB2 | Julius Chestnut | 1 | 1 | 1-3-0 / 1-2-0 | 6.45% |
Let's use Arizona's section to talk about Seattle's defense. Arizona did not do anything anyway. The Seahawks defense has seen Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and De'Von Achane in 2024. The Bills, Falcons, and Lions got to the defense, accounting for 36% of the production allowed. Removing those three games moves the Seahawks to the 11th most fantasy points allowed to running backs to the 8th fewest. They had stuffed Williams and McCaffrey the prior two weeks and made it three with Arizona. Coach Mike Macdonald was critical in Baltimore's defense (which has fallen apart after his departure) and is establishing a high standard.
Brooks made his debut, but it was still the Hubbard show. Coach Dave Canales has consistently praised Hubbard. Brooks is extremely unlikely to outplay Hubbard in 2024. He is a handcuff. But hopes should remain high that the Panthers can have their version of "Detroit South" in 2025.
The snap share between Swift and Johnson was much closer than the touch split. But this was still a significant flip from near-equal usage in Week 11. Johnson was used more as a blocker in pass protection. It was a positive week for Swift's usage, though the point total was lower. Johnson's goal line vulture hurt. Again. The count is up to six touchdowns that Swift absolutely could have scored. Those six push him from RB21 to RB7 in points per game. The Bears are showing signs of life offensively.
Dowdle had a strong bounce-back after a problematic Monday Night. He is the Cowboys' lead back; no one is pushing him, but he is now within the "Weird Stat" range. Dowdle has 112 rush attempts without a rushing touchdown. There have been 80 NFL seasons with 112+ attempts without a touchdown. Alexander Mattison made it to just 14 players with 180+ attempts in 2023. Miles Sanders in 2021 was the only other player since 2018 to hit 112+ attempts.
Before Week 8's matchup against Jacksonville, Jacobs was one of my favorite trade targets, with usage indicating he should be valued much higher than RB15. Since Week 7, Jacobs has been the overall RB2, with 20.9 points per game.
Houston felt better about its offense after a Monday night game against Dallas in Week 11. The Titans derailed them again in Week 12. Mixon followed one of the best fantasy games of his career with his second-worst game of the year, behind only the Week 2 contest, where he stuffed his foot injury. A win would have put the Texans 3.5 games up on the Colts with only five games left.
The Colts had a brutal matchup against Detroit. The Texans' loss keeps them alive. Taylor was the only back involved.
Hunt continued to be effective. He is a savvy runner who takes what is available, but his top end is gone. Carolina was a prime spot, and an RB16 week is disappointing. He may remain a change of pace, but when Isiah Pacheco is healthy, expect Pacheco to return to the unquestioned top spot.
Pregame, Williams told NBC he was aware of his touchdown drought and would end it in Week 12. He did. He is still the Bellcow, but his points per game have been RB30 over the last four weeks, and his points were still outside RB12 territory.
Achane has not moved out of Bellcow status. The Dolphins ran away from the Patriots, resulting in garbage time dilution. Achane has been the fantasy RB3 overall since Tua Tagovailoa returned.
Jones shifted back to Bellcow status. Perhaps his split in Week 11 was due to the rib injury that caused him to miss time against the Jaguars in Week 10. Jones posted his second 100-yard game of 2024 and scored his third rushing touchdown. It is an intense rebound week that resets expectations for the Vikings backfield.
Please see the "Saquon Barkley Stats Of The Week" section.
The 49ers abandon the run game after falling behind. McCaffrey is still McCaffrey. Mason is the backup. The 49ers are in trouble.
Walker is getting awkward. A 31.6 boom performance in Week 4 accounts for 22% of his year-long production. Consensus still put him RB6 in the weekly rankings. Since Week 5, he has been RB19 in points per game. The Seahawks have struggled to run consistently, and their 64% pass ratio is fourth in the NFL.
Pollard was the week's surprise, posting his best game of the season. He returned to a dominant backfield share with Tyjae Spears out of the lineup. The Titans' offense has shown life since Will Levis returned.
Committee With A Lead
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore | RB1 | Derrick Henry | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Justice Hill | |||||
Buffalo | RB1 | James Cook | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Ray Davis | |||||
RB3 | Ty Johnson | |||||
Cleveland | RB1 | Nick Chubb | 20 | 1 | 20-59-2 / 1-1-0 | 80.77% |
RB2 | Jerome Ford | 4 | 1 | 4-19-0 / 1-8-0 | 19.23% | |
Las Vegas | RB1 | Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 6 | 8-28-0 / 5-37-1 | 73.68% |
RB2 | Sincere McCormick | 5 | 0 | 5-33-0 / 0 | 26.32% | |
LA Chargers | RB1 | J.K. Dobbins | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Gus Edwards | |||||
RB3 | Hassan Haskins | |||||
New England | RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 2 | 8-13-0 / 0 | 47.62% |
RB2 | Antonio Gibson | 6 | 2 | 6-31-0 / 1-14-0 | 38.10% | |
RB3 | JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 2 | 1-15-0 / 2-0-0 | 14.29% | |
New Orleans | RB1 | Alvin Kamara | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Jordan Mims | |||||
OW | Taysom Hill | |||||
NY Giants | RB1 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 9 | 4 | 9-42-0 / 4-28-0 | 65.00% |
RB2 | Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 2-3-1 / 2-7-0 | 20.00% | |
RB3 | Eric Gray | 1 | 2 | 1-(1)-0 / 2-7-0 | 15.00% | |
Washington | RB1 | Brian Robinson Jr. | 5 | 2 | 5-13-0 / 1-11-0 | 31.82% |
RB2 | Austin Ekeler | 9 | 3 | 9-22-0 / 2-2-0 | 54.55% | |
RB3 | Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 0 | 3-22-0 / 0 | 13.64% |
Chubb was the running back story of the week in the non-Saquon Barkley category. Chubb's 2023 season ended against Pittsburgh in Week 2 with a devastating knee injury. He posted his 14th career two-touchdown game and first since 2022 to lead the Browns to the upset win. The weather and comeback story significantly influenced the split, favoring Chubb.
Unsurprisingly, Abdullah was the lead back, with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison out. Surprisingly, it was McCormick, not Dylan Laube, who played as the change of pace. McCormick was incredibly productive in college, totaling 2,946 rush yards in his final two seasons before leaving early. He spent 2022 on IR, then 2023 and 2024 on the Raiders practice squad. His five carries were the first of his career. Seeing players fight through injuries and years on the practice squad to step into action is an annual end-of-season highlight.
The Patriots have been heavily leaning on Stevenson, but a big Dolphins lead to put the game on ice fast. The split likely had more to do with the team recognizing an opportunity to ease the workload than any change in philosophy.
Tracy fumbled for the second straight game. The Giants were never a threat in this matchup, but coaches struggle to stomach ball security issues, especially from rookies. Hopefully, the Giants recognize the lost season and allow Tracy to solve the problems. The fear is that as Brian Daboll's seat heats up, he could switch back to the reliable but unspectacular Devin Singletary. Handle Tracy with caution until we get clarity.
Robinson was knocked out early, headed into the locker room, and later returned for a portion of the first half, but his day ended before halftime. Ekeler took the bulk of the work with Robinson out but suffered a concussion on a kick return at the end of the game. The Commanders have lost three straight and could be without their top two backs in Week 13. A bye is on tap for Week 14 and is needed, but they likely have to get through Tennessee without the top backs. Chris Rodriguez Jr. likely serves as the early down back, and McNichols as the passing down back. It is a fun spot for McNichols; 360 of his 581 career yards came with the Titans in 2020 and 2021. We hope to see the backfield back to health in Week 15.
True Committees
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver | RB1 | Javonte Williams | 8 | 4 | 8-(2)-0 / 2-6-0 | 40.00% |
RB2 | Audric Estime | 3 | 0 | 3-15-0 / 0 | 10.00% | |
RB3 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 1 | 7-44-0 / 0 | 26.67% | |
OW | Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 5 | 2-(2)-0 / 3-44-0 | 23.33% | |
Detroit | Sonic | Jahmyr Gibbs | 21 | 3 | 21-90-2 / 3-9-0 | 66.67% |
Knuckles | David Montgomery | 8 | 3 | 8-37-1 / 3-36-0 | 30.56% | |
RB3 | Craig Reynolds | 1 | 0 | 1-6-0 / 0 | 2.78% | |
Pittsburgh | RB1 | Najee Harris | 16 | 2 | 16-41-0 / 2-13-0 | 51.43% |
RB2 | Jaylen Warren | 11 | 5 | 11-45-1- / 3-19-0 | 45.71% | |
RB3 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 1-(2)-0 / 0 | 2.86% | |
Tampa Bay | RB1 | Bucky Irving | 12 | 6 | 12-87-1 / 6-64-0 | 50.00% |
RB2 | Rachaad White | 12 | 1 | 12-37-1 / 1-10-0 | 36.11% | |
RB3 | Sean Tucker | 4 | 1 | 4-3-1 / 1-7-0 | 13.89% |
The Broncos offense is productive. Can that be enough for one week? The answer to this backfield is not on the roster. The three backs are low ceiling, low floor, bye, or injury stand-ins.
Montgomery's day ended early with a shoulder injury. The Lions were content to give Gibbs Bellcow usage to close the game. Still, the Lions have a short week, playing in their traditional early Thanksgiving slot. If Montgomery is out, Gibbs instantly rockets to Bellcow status and a Top 5 rank.
Warren has recovered from an early season injury, making this backfield an even split. Harris had an incredible run in October, topping 100 yards in three straight weeks. He has 55 carries for 157 yards and a 2.85 YPC over the last three games. Like much of the previous two seasons, Warren is the visibly more explosive back again.
Coming out of the bye, the team said they wanted to involve Tucker. His role is a dedicated Vulture. Twice, Irving went down on the one, and Tucker came in. The Irving—White duo has been productive enough to make both weekly plays. A third dedicated goal-line thief is an incredibly unwelcome development.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 34 | Trey McBride | 15 | 12-133-0 | 44.12% | 62% | 76% |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 3-47-0 | 17.65% | ||||
James Conner | 5 | 5-41-0 | 14.71% | ||||
LA Rams | 34 | Puka Nacua | 13 | 9-117-0 | 38.24% | 71% | 79% |
Cooper Kupp | 11 | 8-60-1 | 32.35% | ||||
Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 2-15-1 | 8.82% | ||||
Philadelphia | 19 | A.J. Brown | 7 | 6-109-1 | 36.84% | 63% | 84% |
Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4-19-0 | 26.32% | ||||
Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4-47-0 | 21.05% |
McBride is trending toward a weird season. McBride made Stats Of The Week. He is on pace for 97 receptions and 1,096 yards. And zero touchdowns receiving. Diontae Johnson holds the record, with 86 receptions without a touchdown. Al Toon's 963 yards in 1991 are the most without a touchdown.
Sometimes, the answer is just "both." The black-and-white world of media attempts to force choosing sides. Regarding Nacua or Kupp, the answer is "yes." Nacua is WR12 for the week, and Kupp is WR13. The Eagles had been a difficult matchup for receivers, and they kept the Rams' offense in check. Kupp made his week on a late, long touchdown catch. Nacua has proven his 2023 season was no fluke, while Kupp shows plenty remains in the tank.
DeVonta Smith was out, but the Eagles are the type of offense we love, as they just gave the ball more to Brown, Goedert, and Barkley. Brown has had a quieter season, working through some injuries and deferring to Barkley, but he topped 100 yards for the second time in three games.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco | 26 | Jauan Jennings | 7 | 5-40-0 | 26.92% |
George Kittle | 6 | 6-82-1 | 23.08% | ||
Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 1-21-0 | 15.38% | ||
Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 3-37-0 | 15.38% | ||
Chicago | 47 | Keenan Allen | 15 | 9-86-1 | 31.91% |
Rome Odunze | 10 | 5-39-0 | 21.28% | ||
Cole Kmet | 10 | 7-64-0 | 21.28% | ||
DJ Moore | 7 | 7-106-1 | 14.89% | ||
Cincinnati | Bye Week | Ja'Marr Chase | |||
Tee Higgins | |||||
Chase Brown | |||||
Indianapolis | 25 | Michael Pittman Jr. | 7 | 6-96-0 | 28.00% |
Josh Downs | 7 | 3-27-0 | 28.00% | ||
Alec Pierce | 4 | 1-39-0 | 16.00% | ||
Las Vegas | 46 | Jakobi Meyers | 15 | 10-121-0 | 32.61% |
Brock Bowers | 10 | 4-38-0 | 21.74% | ||
Tre Tucker | 8 | 7-82-0 | 17.39% | ||
LA Chargers | Monday | Ladd McConkey | |||
Quentin Johnston | |||||
Will Dissly | |||||
Minnesota | 32 | Jordan Addison | 9 | 8-162-1 | 28.13% |
T.J. Hockenson | 9 | 7-114-0 | 28.13% | ||
Justin Jefferson | 5 | 2-27-0 | 15.63% | ||
NY Jets | Bye Week | Garrett Wilson | |||
Davante Adams | |||||
Breece Hall | |||||
Washington | 34 | Noah Brown | 10 | 6-71-0 | 29.41% |
Zach Ertz | 8 | 6-38-1 | 23.53% | ||
Terry McLaurin | 6 | 5-102-1 | 17.65% |
Brandon Allen is not Brock Purdy; Purdy is not just any quarterback. The 49ers offense struggled without Purdy. Hopefully, his shoulder injury just needed rest, as early reports have him back for Week 13 against Buffalo. The Seahawks' win over Arizona means the 49ers are still just one game back despite the loss, but it is getting late early for the 49ers.
Moore had the most significant fantasy day, a welcomed return to relevance, but the target breakdown is interesting. Allen became the first Bear to see 15 targets since Darnell Mooney in Week 18, 2022.
Everyone is hurt for the Colts, as both Downs and Pittman monitor injuries. Injuries tend to happen against the Lions, a meat grinder of a matchup, and usually result in a hangover loss the following week. The Colts should have a "get right" matchup against New England in Week 13 before a Week 14 bye, but if both Pittman and Downs are out, Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are boom/bust players, with Anthony Richardson a boom/bust quarterback.
I owe our DFS Captain Devin Knotts kudos. On our weekly DFS show, Devin called out Meyers as a play. I pushed back, citing Patrick Surtain II Jr. and Denver's standing against wide receivers. But Meyers came through with his second 100-yard game in the last three weeks. Meyers and Bowers have proven themselves as fantasy assets, but Gardner Minshew II suffered a season-ending collarbone injury. The idea of Desmond Ridder supporting these options can cause nausea.
Addison has touchdowns in three of the last four weeks. His 162 yards are a season-high for a Vikings receiver. He is overall WR9 over the last four weeks. Jefferson has 156 yards combined over his previous three. Hockenson had his fifth career 100-yard game. He is back and should be a difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs.
Brown stacked three games of 58, 60, and 73 yards between Weeks 6 and 9 before going quiet the last two weeks. That had more to do with difficult matchups against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. He played twice as many snaps as any receiver outside of McLaurin. The Cowboys shut McLaurin down until a very loud 86-yard touchdown at the end. The Commanders have to get him more involved early and often. McLaurin's touchdown tied his career high with seven. He needs 177 yards to extend his 1,000-yard streak to five years.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | Bye Week | Drake London | |||
Ray-Ray McCloud III | |||||
Darnell Mooney | |||||
Carolina | 33 | David Moore | 10 | 6-81-1 | 30.30% |
Xavier Legette | 6 | 4-56-0 | 18.18% | ||
Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 1-2-0 | 15.15% | ||
Dallas | 32 | CeeDee Lamb | 12 | 10-67-0 | 37.50% |
Luke Schoonmaker | 4 | 3-55-1 | 12.50% | ||
Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 2-22-1 | 12.50% | ||
Denver | 39 | Courtland Sutton | 10 | 8-97-2 | 25.64% |
Devaughn Vele | 9 | 6-80-0 | 23.08% | ||
Marvin Mims Jr. | 5 | 3-44-0 | 12.82% | ||
Green Bay | 22 | Romeo Doubs | 6 | 3-54-0 | 27.27% |
Jayden Reed | 3 | 3-26-0 | 13.64% | ||
Christian Watson | 3 | 0 | 13.64% | ||
Houston | 31 | Nico Collins | 9 | 5-92-1 | 29.03% |
Joe Mixon | 6 | 5-23-0 | 19.35% | ||
Tank Dell | 5 | 3-72-0 | 16.13% | ||
Cade Stover | 4 | 3-26-1 | 12.90% | ||
Jacksonville | Bye Week | Brian Thomas Jr. | |||
Evan Engram | |||||
Travis Etienne Jr. | |||||
Miami | 40 | Jonnu Smith | 11 | 9-87-1 | 27.50% |
Jaylen Waddle | 9 | 8-144-1 | 22.50% | ||
Tyreek Hill | 6 | 5-48-0 | 15.00% | ||
New Orleans | Bye Week | Taysom Hill | |||
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | |||||
Alvin Kamara | |||||
NY Giants | 30 | Malik Nabers | 9 | 6-64-0 | 30.00% |
Theo Johnson | 6 | 3-39-0 | 20.00% | ||
Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 5-47-0 | 16.67% | ||
Pittsburgh | 26 | George Pickens | 7 | 4-48-0 | 26.92% |
Jaylen Warren | 5 | 3-19-0 | 19.23% | ||
Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4-59-0 | 15.38% | ||
Calvin Austin III | 3 | 3-78-1 | 11.54% | ||
Seattle | 28 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 6-77-1 | 25.00% |
Ken Walker III | 6 | 4-52-0 | 21.43% | ||
DK Metcalf | 5 | 4-59-0 | 17.86% |
Jalen Coker missed, and Adam Thielen returned, but it was Moore's day. Moore set a career-high with ten targets and six receptions. He posted his most yards since 2020 and scored his first touchdown of 2024. He looked good against a good Chiefs defense and drew a critical late pass interference penalty that led to the game-tying score. Oh, the confusion a fantasy-relevant D. Moore in Carolina will cause. Most importantly, Bryce Young looks much more like the player who went first in the draft. Carolina is going to pull some upsets over the final month.
Lamb got many targets, caught many balls, and did not get much yardage. Lamb has 24 receptions for 181 yards with Cooper Rush at quarterback. There are 34 players with 24+ receptions and 181 yards or fewer over a three-game span. Most of them are running backs. Lamb, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Golden Tate are the only receivers on the list. Schoonmaker has now shown himself worth adding to the short list of tight end handcuffs. Jake Ferguson should be back in Week 13, though the short week could come into play with concussion protocol. Ferguson is a free agent after 2025. It will be worth monitoring if the Cowboys play the same game they played with Dalton Schultz, allowing Ferguson to walk with Schoonmaker, who can play as the starter. Schoonmaker is worth holding in deep Dynasty formats.
Weekly readers know we have been following the Sutton trend. Everyone will be there after his two-touchdown performance. Sutton has been WR4 overall over the last five weeks. Vele deserves attention. The Vele - Lil'Jordan Humphrey - Troy Franklin logjam still holds Vele back in snaps, but his nine targets and 80 yards are season-highs.
The 49ers did not challenge the Packers. Doubs served as the nominal WR1 in this matchup but suffered a concussion late. Jordan Love has not been a Top 10 fantasy quarterback since Week 7, while the Packers are 8-3. Week 11 was his best fantasy finish over that stretch at QB11, but he only threw 17 passes in that game. He averaged three touchdowns per game over his first five games, but Sunday was his first two-touchdown game since Week 7.
Welcome back, Nico Collins. Collins was the only bright spot for the Texans offense, scoring, hitting another big play to set up a field goal, and losing a second touchdown on a procedure penalty late. Dell has rounded into better form. He is still a great Buy Low option, as he is WR45 on the season, but over the last five games, he has averaged 4.4 receptions and 65.2 yards, working out to full-season numbers of 75 and 1,108. Stover is nipping at Dalton Schultz's heels. Schultz still leads in snaps, but Stover out-targeted him and scored. Stover and C.J. Stroud were teammates at Ohio St. Schultz signed a big deal in the 2024 offseason, making good on a one-year "prove it" opportunity, but that deal contains a post-June 1st out that could save the Texans $11.5 million if exercised. The Texans are 25th in projected cap space at $19 million. Right now, Schultz does not seem $11.5 million better than Stover.
Smith has ascended into the top tier of tight ends, moving well past the group of "maybe if he catches a touchdown" into "ok, they get volume." Waddle is a deserving trending topic. A five-reception, 109-yard day in Week 1 was his only game this year over four receptions for 57 yards. We needed this 8-144-1 explosion so bad. There was no fluke during this performance; Waddle looked excellent all day. The Dolphins have won three straight and are only one game back from Denver in the wildcard hunt. In their final six, they only face two teams with winning records (Green Bay and Houston). Miami would be a very frisky seven-seed if they can complete this turnaround.
Nabers is mad with the Giants' on-field product. We are all angry that his explosion at the start of the year feels like a distant memory. Since returning from a concussion, Nabers has averaged 6.4 receptions and 57 yards. Oddly, if you remove the explosion in the Jacksonville game, Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged six receptions and 58 yards over his other ten games of 2024. But St. Brown scores touchdowns and the Giants do not.
Pickens had a floor game. He blamed the weather. Austin is the fun note. He makes a wow play in every game. This week, there were two: a 46-yard reception that could have been a 70-yard touchdown if Russell Wilson had hit him in stride and a contested catch in the end zone. After these plays happen, Arthur Smith punishes all of us by making us watch Van Jefferson instead. Austin should be a near every down player as the Steelers' WR2.
Smith-Njigba is WR9 on the season and WR3 over the last four weeks. He is attacking at multiple levels and realizing his ceiling. Anyone who bought low or held through some rocky times did well, as there is little reason to believe this is a fluke.
Offenses Under All Thresholds
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore | Monday | Zay Flowers | |||
Mark Andrews | |||||
Isaiah Likely | |||||
Rashod Bateman | |||||
Buffalo | Bye Week | Khalil Shakir | |||
Amari Cooper | |||||
Keon Coleman | |||||
Cleveland | 27 | Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 6-85-0 | 22.22% |
David Njoku | 5 | 1-9-0 | 18.52% | ||
Elijah Moore | 5 | 3-21-0 | 18.52% | ||
Cedric Tillman | 4 | 2-28-0 | 14.81% | ||
Detroit | 33 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 6-62-0 | 21.21% |
Jameson Williams | 7 | 5-64-0 | 21.21% | ||
Sam LaPorta | 6 | 3-19-0 | 18.18% | ||
Kansas City | 36 | Travis Kelce | 8 | 6-62-0 | 22.22% |
DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 5-35-1 | 16.67% | ||
Xavier Worthy | 6 | 4-46-0 | 16.67% | ||
Noah Gray | 5 | 4-66-2 | 13.89% | ||
New England | 37 | Hunter Henry | 8 | 5-44-0 | 21.62% |
DeMario Douglas | 7 | 5-62-0 | 18.92% | ||
Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 3-30-0 | 13.51% | ||
Austin Hooper | 4 | 4-59-1 | 10.81% | ||
Tampa Bay | 30 | Sterling Shepard | 7 | 5-16-0 | 23.33% |
Mike Evans | 6 | 5-68-0 | 20.00% | ||
Bucky Irving | 6 | 6-64-0 | 20.00% | ||
Tennessee | 25 | Calvin Ridley | 6 | 5-93-0 | 24.00% |
Tyler Boyd | 6 | 6-55-0 | 24.00% | ||
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 5 | 2-48-1 | 20.00% | ||
Tony Pollard | 5 | 3-10-0 | 20.00% |
While we have been busy with Tillman, Jerry Jeudy became the Browns WR1. Jeudy has averaged six receptions and 95 yards over the last four weeks.
The Lions did not need much out of the passing game after a Week 11 explosion. Floor games are available for all the options in the passing game, though St. Brown's 6-62 are right on season averages, and his WR27 weekly standing shows what happens without finding the end zone.
Patrick Mahomes II has been QB9 in PPG since Week 8 after posting his best fantasy game of the year. His 21.4 average is much closer to our preseason expectations. Everyone got a bit in this matchup as the Chiefs heavily rotate all their receivers and tight ends outside Kelce.
Henry scored a touchdown back in Week 6, so we can avoid doing the awkward "most without a touchdown" dance. Kelce and Bowers are the only tight ends who have seen more targets than Henry since Week 7, but the lack of touchdowns has kept Henry as a fringe TE1 despite the volume.
Shepard had the revenge spot against the Giants, and it was Evans's first game back after missing a month. There were a lot of strange things for the Buccaneers in this game. The groundwork got all of the scoring in a runaway game. Irving flipped with White as the passing back. Cade Otton had his first game under five receptions since Chris Godwin's injury in the middle of October. Expect Evans to re-establish himself at the top and the other pieces to fill in with inconsistent production.
Westbrook-Ikhine scored a touchdown because scoring touchdowns is the only consistent thing in the world. Ridley continued his strong play. He has averaged 5.33 and 82.17 since getting shut out in Week 6, a full-season pace of 90-1,396.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Jared Goff - 10.8 points
- RB: Jonathan Taylor - 3.5 points
- RB: Rhamondre Stevenson - 3.3 points
- WR: Deebo Samuel Sr. - 2.6 points
- WR: Justin Jefferson - 3.7 points
- WR: Cedric Tillman - 1.8 points
- WR: Jayden Reed - 4.1 points
- TE: David Njoku - 3.4 points
This week's lineup posted 33.2 points.
Goff is QB13 in points per game despite his Lions leading the league in scoring by 2.3 points. He has three Top 10 weeks and six weeks at 18 or lower. The Lions' game production and defensive domination have put a lower-than-expected floor on him.
Taylor was the latest victim of the Lions' dominant defense. Stevenson's Patriots fell far behind, phasing him out of the game plan.
Samuel is having a brutal season: 40% of his production was in only two games. Reed was WR4 through the first four weeks and has been WR51 since. Jefferson was WR2 through Week 9 and has been WR34 over the last three weeks. Tillman and Njoku were stifled by a strong Pittsburgh defense that had its hands full with Nick Chubb and Jerry Jeudy.
Players who beat it: Saquon Barkley.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 12
- RB J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
- RB Gus Edwards, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
- TE Jonnu Smith, Miami vs. New England - Won 34-15, nine receptions, 87 yards, and one touchdown.
- WR Noah Brown, Washington vs. Dallas - Lost 34-26, six receptions, 71 yards.
- WR Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay vs. NY Giants - Won 30-7, five receptions, 16 yards.
- WR Robert Woods, Houston vs. Tennessee - Lost 32-27, one reception, eight yards.
- RB DeeJay Dallas, Arizona vs. Seattle - Lost 16-6, two kick returns, 60 yards.
- QB Jacoby Brissett, New England vs. Miami - Lost 34-15, DNP
- QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver vs. Las Vegas - Won 29-19, DNP
- TE Hayden Hurst, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
Week 13
- QB Geno Smith, Seattle vs. NY Jets
- RB David Montgomery, Detroit vs. Chicago
- RB D'Andre Swift, Chicago vs. Detroit
- WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland vs. Denver
- QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
- WR Nelson Agholor, Baltimore vs. Philadelphia
- RB Jeremy McNichols, Washington vs. Tennessee
- WR Allen Robinson II, Detroit vs. Chicago
- RB Chris Brooks, Green Bay vs. Miami
- RB Dare Ogunbowale, Houston vs. Jacksonville
- QB Jacoby Brissett, New England vs. Indianapolis
- QB Marcus Mariota, Washington vs. Tennessee
- QB Taylor Heinicke, LA Chargers vs. Atlanta
- WR Trent Sherfield Sr., Minnesota vs. Arizona
Prospects Of The Week
QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
- 73% completion
- 3,488 passing yards
- 30 touchdowns
- 7 interceptions
- 81 carries (15 yards)
WR / CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
- 82 receptions
- 1,036 receiving yards
- 11 touchdowns
- 23 tackles
- 3 interceptions
- 9 passes defensed
Oklahoma St. at Colorado, Friday, noon, ABC
Colorado's upset loss to Kansas created a chance this is the last time we see Sanders and Hunter on a college football field. The Big 12 tiebreaker is a mess, with Arizona St., BYU, Colorado, and Iowa St. all 6-2 for the two championship game spots. None of the teams play each other in Week 14, creating a complex situation.
Sanders and Hunter are locked into Top 10 draft spots. If a national championship is off the table, expect them to sit out any bowl game.
Hunter has the Heisman trophy locked down. He is the betting favorite by a wide margin and has played both sides of the ball, unlike any player we have seen in a long time. His NFL future is cloudy beyond knowing he will be a Top 5 pick, and he wants to play both sides of the ball.
Sanders passed Kordell Stewart for fifth on the career school passing leaderboard. His 57 career touchdown passes are the fourth most for the school. Cody Hawkins and Steven Montez share the record with 63. Sanders holds the top two passing yardage seasons in school history, and his 30 touchdown passes have passed Sefo Liufau's 28 for the most in a single season.
The Buffalos play in a fun Black Friday window, including Boise St.'s Ashton Jeanty. The NFL Chiefs—Raiders game kicks at 3 p.m., making the college games an excellent appetizer.
Blind Resume Answer
Player | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|
Jordan Addison | 8 | 162 | 1 |
Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 144 | 1 |
David Moore | 6 | 81 | 1 |
Jakobi Meyers | 10 | 121 | 0 |
Keenan Allen | 9 | 86 | 1 |
Addison had a rocky offseason and was WR43 through Week 8. He has been WR9 since and WR1 in Week 12. Waddle was even worse; he was WR69 through Week 11 but bounced back with a WR3 week. Moore is a journeyman with the trust of his coach, Dave Canales, and is earning the trust of his quarterback. Meyers was the forgotten man after the addition of Brock Bowers and the presence of Davante Adams. He was WR34 through Week 7 and is WR15 following the trade of Adams. The targets have been tight in Chicago, with Allen's 71 sandwiched between DJ Moore's 80 and Rome Odunze's 70. Despite the targets, Allen had not topped five receptions for 44 yards. He nearly doubled those numbers as WR6 on the week.
Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football
Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, LA Chargers
Head Coach John Harbaugh, Baltimore
There is little point in burying the lede. Monday Night is about the Harbaugh brothers facing off for the third time.
John holds the edge. The brothers faced off in one of the most memorable Superbowls: "The Blackout Bowl." The lights-out game pushed John to 2-0 against Jim. The stakes are lower, but the game is still full of intrigue.
Playoff Picture: The Chargers are the fifth seed at 7-3, and the Ravens are the sixth seed at 7-4. The Steelers lost in Week 12. A win would push the Ravens even in the win column and give them a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers. The Chargers are further back in the AFC West, wildcard positioning is vital, and the Ravens are their primary competition.
Revenge Factors: The Ravens' fingerprints are all over the Chargers. Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman was in Baltimore from 2017 to 2022. The Chargers are loaded with former Ravens: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Hayden Hurst, center Bradley Bozeman, safety Tony Jefferson, TE Erik Tomlinson, and backup lineman Sam Mustipher. Kyle Van Noy is the only Raven who plays with the Chargers.
Only one player has thrown for more than 200 yards with both teams: Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh played one season for the Ravens in 1998 before spending his final two seasons with the Chargers. He joined the Ravens and his former Colts coach, Ted Marchibroda, after being replaced by a rookie in Indianapolis: Peyton Manning.
I am comfortable saying Marchibroda was the only person who coached the Baltimore and Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens.
This is appointment television.
And Bluesky too!
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