The power of positive framing.
The Buffalo Bills do not have to play the Kansas City Chiefs. They get to play the Kansas City Chiefs with a giant puzzle piece of the AFC playoff race at stake.
The Bills did not have to go for it on fourth and short; they earned the opportunity to win the game.
When Josh Allen dropped back on fourth down and saw no receivers open, he did not have to scramble; he got to scramble, converting a crucial first down and scoring a touchdown to give Patrick Mahomes II the first deficit he could not overcome in nearly a year.
The Denver Broncos did not have to draft a quarterback. They earned the opportunity to select Bo Nix, who posted his first 300-yard and four-touchdown game in beating the Falcons to stay a game up in the AFC wildcard chase. Nix also closed the odds on Jayden Daniels to win Rookie of the Year.
The Steelers did not have to play the Ravens. They had the opportunity to strike the first decisive blow in a tight AFC North race. The Steelers' win pushed the Ravens 2.5 games back and extended the fourth-longest win streak in the league to five games.
The Eagles did not have to play a Thursday Night divisional game against the Commanders. They had a chance to strike a blow similar to Pittsburgh's. They succeeded, extending their win streak to six games.
Week 11 had colossal playoff implications across the league. The Seahawks avoided falling two games back and into sole possession of last in the NFC West with a dramatic late win over the 49ers. The Colts pushed the Jets one game away from AFC East elimination and won a crucial matchup with the potential for wildcard tiebreaker implications. The Chargers did the same with the Bengals. Add the Packers and Bears to that list.
In the NFC South, the weirdest of all, the Saints continued their positive turnaround with a second straight win after firing Dennis Allen.
As for the teams who lost, well, there's always next week year.
Thank you, Nathan Jahnke.
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
Player | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|
A | 6 | 142 | 1 |
B | 5 | 58 | 1 |
C | 4 | 61 | 1 |
D | 6 | 101 | 2 |
E | 4 | 150 | 0 |
Halloween was a month ago, but that does not mean we cannot have zombies. Fantasy zombies. Several written-off players came through with big weeks and career highs.
Can you place this production?
Deep League Waiver Watch List
"Waivers of the Future," released after this column, provides in-depth coverage of waivers. Below is a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues.
- RB Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas (7% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Dylan Laube, Las Vegas (50% Sleeper rostered)
- QB Tommy DeVito, New York Giants (18% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Curtis Samuel, Buffalo (57% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Marvin Mims Jr.., Denver (57% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Jase McClellan, Atlanta (20% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Tim Patrick, Detroit (23% Sleeper rostered)
- TE Noah Gray, Kansas City (46% Sleeper rostered)
- TE Davis Allen, Los Angeles Rams (31% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Malik Washington, Miami (56% Sleeper rostered)
Stats Of The Week
- 138 rushing yards, 7 carries, 3 touchdowns, 1-2 passing, 18 passing yards, 1 interception, 8 catches, 50 receiving yards, 10 targets - QB/RB/TE/OW Taysom Hill, New Orleans - No one in NFL history has done this. Our Adam Harstad is a search wizard with a brilliant mind. He may have someone. I have no one.
So now we play a game.
What stat do we need to remove to add a second name?
Well, not one stat would add a second name. We need to eliminate entire categories.
Removing the passing stats makes the list LaDainian Tomlinson (220 rush yards, three touchdowns, 11 receptions, 51 yards in Week 13, 2002 and Hill as the only players at 130-3-8-50.
Removing the receiving stats makes the list Spec Sanders (three times, Weeks 10, 13,14 in 1947 for the New York Yankees) and Hill the only players with 18+ passing yards, one interception, 130 rushing yards, and three touchdowns.
If we remove all rushing stats and reduce the list to just 18 passing yards, one interception, eight catches, and a 50-yard game, it will still be just Hill.
19 players have a game with 18 passing yards, eight receptions, and 50 receiving yards.
Six players have thrown an interception with eight receptions and 50 yards.
146 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 52 receiving yards - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley scored twice, topped 130 scrimmage yards, and 100 rushing yards for the fourth time in 2024. Three Eagles backs have hit those numbers five times in a game (Miles Sanders, Brian Westbrook, and Wilbert Montgomery). No one has done it six times.
1,100 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 200 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Eric Dickerson, in his 1983 Rams season, is the only player to meet all four numbers through his first ten games with a franchise. Barkley is on pace for 1,900+ rush yards, 13+ touchdowns, 350+ receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. No player has ever hit that stat line over a season. Chris Johnson and Barry Sanders are the only players to top 1,900 rush yards and 300 receiving yards.
The next segment is brought to you by "Why We Love Tight Target Trees."
11 receptions, 161 yards, 2 touchdowns - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit / 4 receptions, 124 yards, 1 touchdown - WR Jameson Williams, Detroit
9 receptions, 148 yards, 1 touchdown - WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati / 7 receptions, 75 yards, 2 touchdowns - WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
7 receptions, 123 yards, 1 touchdown - WR Puka Nacua, LA Rams / 6 receptions, 106 yards, 2 touchdowns, WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams
These six players occupy six of the top seven wide receiver scoring positions in Week 11. The Lions and Rams groups were over 70% of the team's targets, while passing volume led by game script put the Bengals pair at 57%, despite their 13 targets each being the most.
All three pairs exceeded 18.3 fantasy points each. There are now six games in 2024 where a pair of wide receivers have beaten 18.3 points. The 1999 season has the most occurrences of teammates above this number, with eight games over, led by Cris Carter and Randy Moss.
16 targets, 13 receptions, 126 yards, 1 touchdown - TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas - Bowers represents the entire list of rookie tight ends with 13 receptions and 120 yards in a game. Removing the position filter makes the list five rookies, with Nacua and Deion Branch the only players to hit 13-120 since 1964. Removing the rookie filter gives 23 tight end games above 13-120.
356 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns - QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati - Burrow has 1,035 passing yards and 12 touchdowns over the last three weeks. The NFL has 15 different three-game spans of 1,035+ yards and 12+ touchdowns (some overlap pushes it to 22), with Tom Brady the last to hit those numbers at the start of 2021. Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes.
78 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 7 receptions, 43 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown - RB Breece Hall, New York Jets - 52 players in history have 75+ rushing yards, 7+ receptions and 40+ receiving yards with both a rushing and receiving touchdown. Hall is the first to do it in 2024. His seven receptions tie a season high and this was the best fantasy game of his season. Despite a disappointing year, he is still RB6 and his ceiling is intact.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
Bellcows
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | RB1 | James Conner | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Trey Benson | |||||
RB3 | Emari Demercado | |||||
RB4 | DeeJay Dallas | |||||
Atlanta | RB1 | Bijan Robinson | 12 | 4 | 12-35-0 / 4-28-0 | 64.00% |
RB2 | Jase McClellan | 8 | 0 | 8-15-0 / 0 | 32.00% | |
RB3 | Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 1 | 0 / 1-(1)-0 | 4.00% | |
Carolina | RB1 | Chuba Hubbard | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Miles Sanders | |||||
Cincinnati | RB1 | Chase Brown | 22 | 7 | 22-86-0 / 5-57-0 | 100.00% |
RB2 | Khalil Herbert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | |
Dallas | RB1 | Rico Dowdle | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Ezekiel Elliott | |||||
Green Bay | RB1 | Josh Jacobs | 18 | 5 | 18-76-1 / 4-58-0 | 85.19% |
RB2 | Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 0 | 2-17-0 / 0 | 7.41% | |
RB3 | Chris Brooks | 0 | 2 | 2-13-0 / 0 | 7.41% | |
Houston | RB1 | Joe Mixon | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Dare Ogunbowale | |||||
Indianapolis | RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | 24 | 2 | 24-57-0 / 1-3-0 | 96.30% |
RB2 | Trey Sermon | 0 | 1 | 0 / 1-3-0 | 3.70% | |
Jacksonville | RB1 | Travis Etienne Jr. | 12 | 3 | 12-27-0 / 3-6-0 | 88.24% |
RB2 | D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 0 | 2-3-0 / 0 | 11.76% | |
Kansas City | RB1 | Kareem Hunt | 14 | 0 | 14-60-0 / 0 | 70.00% |
RB2 | Carson Steele | 1 | 1 | 1-2-0 / 1-5-0 | 10.00% | |
RB3 | Samaje Perine | 4 | 0 / 2-8-0 | 20.00% | ||
LA Rams | RB1 | Kyren Williams | 15 | 0 | 15-86-0 / 0 | 71.43% |
RB2 | Blake Corum | 5 | 1 | 5-21-0 / 1-7-0 | 28.57% | |
Miami | RB1 | De'Von Achane | 17 | 4 | 17-73-1 / 4-32-0 | 70.00% |
RB2 | Raheem Mostert | 3 | 0 | 3-(2)-0 / 0 | 10.00% | |
RB3 | Jaylen Wright | 5 | 1 | 5-4-0 / 1-2-0 | 20.00% | |
New England | RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 4 | 20-73-0 / 4-16-0 | 77.42% |
RB2 | Antonio Gibson | 4 | 1 | 4-18-0 / 1-2-0 | 16.13% | |
RB3 | JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 0 | 2-2-0 / 0 | 6.45% | |
NY Jets | RB1 | Breece Hall | 16 | 7 | 16-78-1 / 7-43-1 | 92.00% |
RB2 | Braelon Allen | 2 | 0 | 2-6-0 / 0 | 8.00% | |
Philadelphia | RB1 | Saquon Barkley | 26 | 3 | 26-146-2 / 2-52-0 | 85.29% |
RB2 | Kenneth Gainwell | 4 | 1 | 4-43-0 / 1-6-0 | 14.71% | |
San Francisco | RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 5 | 19-79-0 / 4-27-0 | 92.31% |
RB2 | Jordan Mason | 2 | 0 | 2-13-0 / 0 | 7.69% | |
Seattle | RB1 | Ken Walker III | 14 | 2 | 14-51-1 / 2-5-0 | 72.73% |
RB2 | Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 2 | 4-3-0 / 2-2-0 | 27.27% | |
Tennessee | RB1 | Tony Pollard | 9 | 4 | 9-15-0 / 2-14-0 | 68.42% |
RB2 | Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 3-0-0 / 2-8-0 | 31.58% |
Allgeier was benched. Allgeier has been used to close out wins, and the Falcons trailed the entire game. Allgeier seemingly fell out of the rotation after failing to convert from the one-on-three consecutive carries in Week 10. All of McClellan's work came late in the game.
Brown has taken every carry for the Bengals since Week 8. He has been the fantasy overall RB2 over the last three. Consensus has still ranked him outside the Top 12 backs weekly. Despite a problematic Bengals closing schedule, he should be an aggressive trade target.
Brooks looked effective on two targets, and Wilson ran hard, but this is Jacobs' backfield. Marshawn Lloyd's return hit a significant snag with Appendicitis. He is droppable in all redraft formats.
Richardson's return at quarterback flushed any rushing opportunity away from Sermon and Tyler Goodson. Richardson and Taylor combined are more than enough for the Colts. There are likely more valuable handcuffs than the Colts' two backups.
Bigsby's absence allowed Etienne a Bellcow role for the second week. It meant little against the Lions' complex defense. Etienne has 27 touches in the last two weeks and only 76 scrimmage yards. The Jaguars have a bye in Week 12. Underlying usage and a playoff schedule with three teams in the top half of running back points can let Etienne emerge late. But the offensive environment in Jacksonville is stifling.
Sunday's loss dramatically increases the chances of Isiah Pacheco returning for the fantasy playoffs. A win could have put the Chiefs in a position to clinch the AFC top seed at the start of the fantasy playoffs and allowed a cautious ramp-up with Pacheco. Now Buffalo is just half a game back, and a loss could cost the bye and the top seed. Hunt looked like a solid stash to close the year one week ago; now, he seems like a ticking value time bomb.
Corum tied his second-most touches since Week 2. He is one of the highest-value handcuffs in fantasy. Williams has quietly been RB22, averaging 9.1 points over the last three weeks. Over 2023 and the first eight weeks of 2024, he had never gone consecutive weeks without a touchdown. He has now gone three weeks since scoring.
Achane has been a fantasy RB2 since Tua Tagovailoa's return in Week 8. He has averaged 67.5 rushing yards, 5.75 receptions, and 38.75 receiving yards - a full-season pace of 1,148-98-659. McCaffrey and Tomlinson are the only players to post 1,100-100-650 seasons. The Dolphins have left the door open for Wright to take the secondary job from Mostert, but Wright is not seizing the chance.
Stevenson has been RB10 over the last four weeks. He missed Week 6 and had one ramp-up week, but he has exceeded 20 rushes in three of the four games and averaged 21 touches over the stretch.
Hall's 84% snap share was his second most on the season, and his 23 opportunities were also the second most, trailing 24 in Week 6 against Buffalo. Allen's two touches were his fewest since Week 1.
Barkley has 28+ touches, 198+ scrimmage yards, and two touchdowns in two of his last three games. His 52 receiving yards were a season high.
McCaffrey is the best buy in fantasy football. He is RB17 at 13.2 points per game in the two games since returning. But every underlying usage trend suggests a return to the elite fantasy difference maker is coming. It is worth noting that McCaffrey does face a problematic fantasy playoff schedule.
Walker has topped 70% snap share each of the last two games, his only two over that number this year. Charbonnet's five scrimmage yards were a season low. Walker is RB30 over his previous three games. The Seahawks are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, and there has been little to suggest that will change. Walker's pass-game usage has dropped since back-to-back eight-target games in early October. His two targets tied a season low, and he is averaging only three per game over the last four.
Pollard's Bellcow status is teetering. Weeks 7-9, with Spears out, he was above 82% snap share every game. Spears returned in Week 10, and the share has been 58%—42% since. Pollard averaged 20.75 touches through the first eight games, with a high water mark of 31, but he has been at 12 per game for the last two weeks.
Committee With A Lead
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore | RB1 | Derrick Henry | 13 | 0 | 13-65-1 / 0 | 59.09% |
RB2 | Justice Hill | 2 | 7 | 2-13-0 / 4-28-0 | 40.91% | |
Buffalo | RB1 | James Cook | 9 | 6 | 9-20-2 / 5-7-0 | 57.69% |
RB2 | Ray Davis | 5 | 0 | 5-11-0 / 0 | 19.23% | |
RB3 | Ty Johnson | 5 | 1 | 5-18-0 / 0 | 23.08% | |
Chicago | RB1 | D'Andre Swift | 14 | 2 | 14-71-1 / 2-13-0 | 59.26% |
RB2 | Roschon Johnson | 10 | 1 | 10-33-1 / 1-8-0 | 40.74% | |
Cleveland | RB1 | Nick Chubb | 11 | 0 | 11-50-0 / 0 | 50.00% |
RB2 | Jerome Ford | 5 | 4 | 5-10-0 / 4-29-0 | 40.91% | |
RB3 | Pierre Strong Jr. | 2 | 0 | 2-5-0 / 0 | 9.09% | |
Denver | RB1 | Javonte Williams | 9 | 5 | 9-59-1 / 4-28-0 | 43.75% |
RB2 | Audric Estime | 6 | 3 | 6-16-0 / 3-9-0 | 28.13% | |
RB3 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 0 | 4-19-0 / 0 | 12.50% | |
OW | Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 2 | 3-4-0 / 2-49-1 | 15.63% | |
Las Vegas | RB1 | Alexander Mattison | 5 | 3 | 5-19-0 / 3-50-0 | 47.06% |
RB2 | Zamir White | 5 | 0 | 5-9-0 / 0 | 29.41% | |
RB3 | Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 1-1-0 / 3-16-1 | 23.53% | |
LA Chargers | RB1 | J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 1 | 11-56-2 / 1-3-0 | 60.00% |
RB2 | Gus Edwards | 6 | 0 | 6-27-0 / 0 | 30.00% | |
RB3 | Hassan Haskins | 2 | 0 | 2-1-0 / 0 | 10.00% | |
Minnesota | RB1 | Aaron Jones | 15 | 1 | 15-39-0 / 1-4-0 | 57.14% |
RB2 | Cam Akers | 10 | 2 | 10-25-0 / 2-11-1 | 42.86% | |
New Orleans | RB1 | Alvin Kamara | 16 | 4 | 16-67-0 / 4-22-0 | 51.28% |
RB2 | Jordan Mims | 2 | 0 | 2-3-0 / 0 | 5.13% | |
OW | Taysom Hill | 7 | 10 | 7-138-3 / 8-50-0 | 43.59% | |
NY Giants | RB1 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Devin Singletary | |||||
Washington | RB1 | Brian Robinson Jr. | 16 | 1 | 16-63-1 / 1-9-0 | 53.13% |
RB2 | Austin Ekeler | 2 | 9 | 2-7-0 / 8-89-0 | 34.38% | |
RB3 | Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 1 | 3-5-0 / 1-1-0 | 12.50% |
We are all excited about Keaton Mitchell's potential. There has been little in usage to suggest he will take a meaningful workshare this season. When the Ravens can build a lead, the backfield snap split leans 60-40 in Henry's favor. It is closer to 50-50 in tighter games or trailing scripts. Henry has cooled off. He still scores weekly but averaged 134 scrimmage yards over the first seven games and 87 over the last four. Barkley is averaging 114 rush yards while Henry is at 107, but an extra game played has Henry in the rushing lead.
Glass half full- Cook posted the best fantasy game against the Chiefs by any running back, with his 17.2 points clearing Bijan Robinson's second-best 12.2 by five points. Glass half empty- Cook played a season-low 37% snap share (Johnson was at 455). His 15 opportunities were the lowest in a game that was not lopsided. Johnson is the frustrating component. Davis has out carried him at a 3 to 1 rate, but they have split targets equally. Without the split backup role, Davis could be RB24 and on pace for 992 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. Cook is RB9 and has Top 12 upside weekly in this offense, but there are underlying concerns.
Chicago fired OC Shane Waldron and debuted a new split backfield in Thomas Brown's first game. Brown started with Hubbard and Miles Sanders in a split after taking over Carolina's offense halfway through 2023. To close the year, it shifted back to Bellcow usage for Hubbard. The broadcast made a point to emphasize that the Bears want the physical element Johnson brings to complement Swift. Anything is in play. Swift broke a 39-yard touchdown to make his day, but he only had 45 scrimmage yards on his other 15 touches.
Ford has outsnapped Chubb in back-to-back weeks, with a severe 56%-30% in Week 11. The performance was Chubb's best of the year and the first time he topped 3.3 scrimmage yards per touch. He has no passing game role and is a touchdown-dependent flex.
Two realities exist in the Denver backfield. In the first scenario, the team wanted to send a message and/or allow Williams to reset. This option is the best case for predictability. In the second scenario, Estime's backfield takeover in Week 10 was a hot-hand decision. Week 11 suggests this is the reality. Williams played the first entire drive and Estime the second whole drive. Williams performed better and was the lead back, ceding work after the game was out of hand. Both backs are in flex territory until we gain more predictability.
White appeared to have pulled back ahead of Mattison, but both left with injuries. If neither White nor Mattison are available, Abdullah could see Bellcow snaps with Laube as a change of pace. There may be enough passing game work to make Abdullah's fantasy viable in PPR formats. Still, the Raiders have been creative in expanding their run game, giving rushes to receivers Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Brock Bowers.
Edwards took the first offensive play for the Chargers, gaining eight yards on a rush. He disappeared from the game plan as the team leaned on Dobbins in a shootout. Dobbins has two touchdowns in two of his last three games and is 79 rush yards and a touchdown away from setting new career highs.
The Vikings opened Week 1 in a 55%-35% share between Jones and Ty Chandler. Chandler was ineffective, so Jones stepped into a Bellcow role, and the team ultimately traded for Akers. In Akers' third game, the snap share split 53%-37%. This split should be the new expectation. The offense was more controlled, and Darnold played mistake-free football after five interceptions over the last two weeks. Jones's season-high was 23.3 points in Week 3. Without that game, he has been RB28 in points per game.
Kamara broke his 50-5-50 streak, but his 10.9 points were the third-lowest on the season. Hill is the story. Kamara still has Top 12 weekly upside, but Hill is the goal line back and is cutting into Kamara's pass game work.
Robinson returned to his early-down, power-game usage after missing two weeks. The Commanders are increasing their use of Robinson and Ekeler playing on the same snap, creating RPO looks that rely on Robinson in a power role with Ekeler as a passing option. Ekeler is on pace for 1,150 scrimmage yards, the fourth-most of his career.
True Committees
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit | Sonic | Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 1 | 11-69-1 / 1-54-0 | 40.00% |
Knuckles | David Montgomery | 15 | 3 | 15-75-2 / 3-20-0 | 60.00% | |
Pittsburgh | RB1 | Najee Harris | 18 | 5 | 18-63-0 / 4-30-0 | 60.53% |
RB2 | Jaylen Warren | 9 | 4 | 9-41-0 / 4-27-0 | 34.21% | |
RB3 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1-0-0 / 1-0-0 | 5.26% | |
Tampa Bay | RB1 | Rachaad White | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Bucky Irving |
- The Lions' entire offense got healthy against a porous Jacksonville team. Montgomery had his best game of the season and stands at RB3 this week. Gibbs had his third-best game, RB5, for Week 11. Montgomery is now a season-long RB10 per game, and Gibbs is an RB5.
- The Steelers opted to attack the Ravens with a controlled offense. Russell Wilson's 4.44 Average Air Yards Per Attempt was about half of what he had done in his other starts. The result was an offense that moved the ball, relying on the backs, but they struggled to convert touchdowns. It was surprising, given Baltimore's pass-defense struggles, but it limited Baltimore's offense and won the game.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit | 23 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 11-161-2 | 47.83% |
Jameson Williams | 6 | 4-124-1 | 26.09% | ||
Tim Patrick | 4 | 3-26-0 | 17.39% | ||
LA Rams | 27 | Cooper Kupp | 10 | 6-106-2 | 37.04% |
Puka Nacua | 9 | 7-123-1 | 33.33% | ||
Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 2-19-0 | 14.81% | ||
San Francisco | 28 | Jauan Jennings | 11 | 10-91-1 | 39.29% |
Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 4-22-0 | 25.00% | ||
Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 4-27-0 | 17.86% | ||
Seattle | 31 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 10-110-0 | 35.48% |
DK Metcalf | 9 | 7-70-0 | 29.03% | ||
AJ Barner | 4 | 2-15-0 | 12.90% |
St. Brown and Williams became the fourth Lions teammates to exceed 124 receiving yards. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr were the last, in Week 9, 2019.
The Rams yardage threshold is lower, at 106, but Kupp and Nacua were the 20th Rams teammates to top 106. The last pair to top 106 and score a touchdown were Brandin Cooks and Kupp in Week 4, 2018.
Jennings was surprised with an 11-target, seven-reception, 93-yard game against the Buccaneers in Week 10. He returned with 11 targets, 10 receptions, 91 yards, and added a touchdown. George Kittle was the last 49er to hit double-digit targets and 90 yards with seven receptions in consecutive games. Michael Crabtree and Terrell Owens are the only ones to do it three times for the franchise.
With all due respect to Tyler Lockett, the target share for Smith-Njigba and Metcalf is what we all hoped for this season. Darrell Jackson is the only other Seahawk to match Smith-Njigba's consecutive double-digit targets with 110+ yards.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carolina | Bye Week | Jalen Coker | |||
Chuba Hubbard | |||||
Xavier Legette | |||||
Chicago | 31 | Rome Odunze | 10 | 6-65-0 | 32.26% |
Keenan Allen | 8 | 4-41-0 | 25.81% | ||
DJ Moore | 7 | 7-62-0 | 22.58% | ||
Cincinnati | 46 | Ja'Marr Chase | 13 | 7-75-2 | 28.26% |
Tee Higgins | 13 | 9-148-1 | 28.26% | ||
Chase Brown | 7 | 5-57-0 | 15.22% | ||
Dallas | Monday | CeeDee Lamb | |||
Jake Ferguson | |||||
Jalen Tolbert | |||||
Las Vegas | 39 | Brock Bowers | 16 | 13-126-1 | 41.03% |
Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 4-28-0 | 15.38% | ||
Tre Tucker | 4 | 3-28-0 | 10.26% | ||
LA Chargers | 33 | Ladd McConkey | 9 | 6-123-0 | 27.27% |
Quentin Johnston | 8 | 2-48-1 | 24.24% | ||
Will Dissly | 6 | 4-80-1 | 18.18% | ||
NY Giants | Bye Week | Malik Nabers | |||
Wan'Dale Robinson | |||||
Theo Johnson | |||||
NY Jets | 29 | Garrett Wilson | 8 | 4-18-0 | 27.59% |
Davante Adams | 7 | 6-72-0 | 24.14% | ||
Breece Hall | 7 | 7-43-1 | 24.14% | ||
Philadelphia | 25 | A.J. Brown | 8 | 5-65-0 | 32.00% |
DeVonta Smith | 6 | 4-29-0 | 24.00% | ||
Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5-61-0 | 20.00% | ||
Pittsburgh | 32 | George Pickens | 12 | 8-89-0 | 37.50% |
Najee Harris | 5 | 4-30-0 | 15.63% | ||
Darnell Washington | 4 | 2-42-0 | 12.50% |
Brown's first game as offensive coordinator saw a tight skill package with Odunze-Moore-Allen and Cole Kmet playing almost every snap, taking a combined 91% of the available total and only rotating out on short yardage. Three games back in the loss column with a head-to-head loss to Washington, this loss was excruciating and could signal the end of the Bears' playoff hopes and Matt Eberflus' tenure.
The Bengals' production details are in Stats of the Week. The loss was as damaging as the Bears', giving the Chargers a head-to-head advantage in the wildcard tiebreaker. They likely need to run the table to entertain playoff hopes and need help from Denver.
Bowers is on pace for 119 receptions and 1,200 yards, well beyond the rookie record pace. The NFL tight end reception record was 116 by Zach Ertz in 2018. Travis Kelce has the yardage record at 1,416, and 14 tight ends have topped 1,200 yards.
McConkey's 123 yards were the ninth-most by a Chargers rookie. Keenan Allen topped it twice as a rookie in 2013; he is the only other player since John Jefferson in 1978 to hit the mark. McConkey is on pace for 1,045 receiving yards. Allen holds the team's rookie record with 1,046.
The Jets' passing game was not working. Aaron Rodgers' 2.1 pocket time is his lowest since 2018 (the oldest advanced information on Pro Football Reference).
Jalen Hurts' 28 passes were his most since Week 4. Barkley took a large share of the passing yardage on one 43-yard play. The team won, Goedert looked healthy, and bigger games lay ahead for this trio.
Pickens set a career-high with 12 targets. Pickens came in averaging 4.67 receptions and 92 yards with Wilson. An 8-89 game is right on that pace, a full-season pace of 1,551 yards.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | 29 | Drake London | 7 | 3-61-0 | 24.14% |
Ray-Ray McCloud III | 6 | 6-46-0 | 20.69% | ||
Darnell Mooney | 4 | 2-27-0 | 13.79% | ||
Denver | 32 | Courtland Sutton | 8 | 7-78-0 | 25.00% |
Devaughn Vele | 5 | 4-66-0 | 15.63% | ||
Javonte Williams | 5 | 4-28-0 | 15.63% | ||
Minnesota | 30 | Justin Jefferson | 8 | 6-81-0 | 26.67% |
Jordan Addison | 8 | 3-61-1 | 26.67% | ||
Josh Oliver | 3 | 3-34-0 | 10.00% | ||
Houston | Monday | Nico Collins | |||
Tank Dell | |||||
John Metchie III | |||||
Indianapolis | 28 | Michael Pittman Jr. | 8 | 5-46-0 | 28.57% |
Josh Downs | 5 | 5-84-1 | 17.86% | ||
Alec Pierce | 4 | 3-74-0 | 14.29% | ||
Jacksonville | 28 | Brian Thomas Jr. | 7 | 5-82-0 | 25.00% |
Evan Engram | 7 | 5-28-0 | 25.00% | ||
Travis Etienne Jr. | 3 | 3-6-0 | 10.71% | ||
New Orleans | 28 | Taysom Hill | 10 | 8-50-0 | 35.71% |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 2-87-1 | 14.29% | ||
Alvin Kamara | 4 | 4-22-0 | 14.29% | ||
Washington | 32 | Austin Ekeler | 8 | 8-89-0 | 25.00% |
Zach Ertz | 7 | 6-47-1 | 21.88% | ||
Noah Brown | 4 | 1-4-0 | 12.50% | ||
Terry McLaurin | 2 | 1-10-0 | 6.25% |
The Broncos' pass defense has been excellent, and the Falcons were the latest victims. The Falcons desperately need the Week 12 bye week. They are riding a two-game losing streak and are opening the NFC South race back up.
Sutton continued the consistent production that has made him WR4 over the last four weeks. His consensus rank was still WR18. At this point of the season, these are the type of under-the-radar runs that create the potential for value. Bo Nix looks excellent, and 100+ yards and a touchdown are in play weekly for Sutton.
Jefferson opened the season with touchdowns in four consecutive games. He has just one in the six games since. He was WR3 over those first four games and has been WR10 since Week 5.
Richardson tanking the passing game was a topic coming into the Jets matchup. For one week, it was significantly overblown. Downs posted his third-best game of the year, and Pittman had his fifth-best despite meager production.
Thomas and Engram probably hit close to their ceiling outcomes with Mac Jones at quarterback. Thomas can score on any play, but this offense is in trouble.
Hill has received his flowers, but Valdes-Scantling deserves attention. His snap share climbed to 65%. He is still incredibly volatile, with a 71-yard touchdown reception. But when desperate, just one play…
Ertz saved the revenge spot for his best game of the season. Ertz is up to TE11 in scoring after the big game. McLaurin ran against rookie Quinyon Mitchell, a favorite for the defensive rookie of the year.
Offenses Under All Thresholds
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | Bye Week | Marvin Harrison Jr.. | |||
Trey McBride | |||||
James Conner | |||||
Baltimore | 31 | Justice Hill | 7 | 4-28-0 | 22.58% |
Zay Flowers | 6 | 2-39-1 | 19.35% | ||
Isaiah Likely | 5 | 4-75-0 | 16.13% | ||
Rashod Bateman | 5 | 2-30-0 | 16.13% | ||
Buffalo | 38 | Khalil Shakir | 12 | 8-70-0 | 31.58% |
Curtis Samuel | 6 | 5-58-1 | 15.79% | ||
Dawson Knox | 6 | 4-40-0 | 15.79% | ||
Cleveland | 45 | Jerry Jeudy | 11 | 6-142-1 | 24.44% |
David Njoku | 9 | 9-81-0 | 20.00% | ||
Elijah Moore | 8 | 6-66-1 | 17.78% | ||
Cedric Tillman | 8 | 3-47-0 | 17.78% | ||
Green Bay | 17 | Josh Jacobs | 5 | 4-58-0 | 29.41% |
Christian Watson | 4 | 4-150-0 | 23.53% | ||
Jayden Reed | 2 | 2-23-1 | 11.76% | ||
Romeo Doubs | 2 | 1-17-0 | 11.76% | ||
Kansas City | 31 | Xavier Worthy | 5 | 4-61-1 | 16.13% |
Noah Gray | 5 | 4-23-2 | 16.13% | ||
Travis Kelce | 4 | 2-8-0 | 12.90% | ||
DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 3-29-0 | 12.90% | ||
Miami | 35 | Tyreek Hill | 8 | 7-61-1 | 22.86% |
Jonnu Smith | 8 | 6-101-2 | 22.86% | ||
De'Von Achane | 4 | 4-32-0 | 11.43% | ||
New England | 38 | Hunter Henry | 9 | 6-63-0 | 23.68% |
DeMario Douglas | 7 | 5-59-0 | 18.42% | ||
Kayshon Boutte | 6 | 4-33-0 | 15.79% | ||
Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 5-70-1 | 13.16% | ||
Tampa Bay | Bye Week | Cade Otton | |||
Rachaad White | |||||
Rakim Jarrett | |||||
Tennessee | 29 | Calvin Ridley | 6 | 4-58-0 | 20.69% |
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 6 | 2-117-1 | 20.69% | ||
Tony Pollard | 4 | 2-14-0 | 13.79% |
The Steelers did an excellent job of taking the Ravens out of their comfort zone. Flowers had a late touchdown to save his week. We know this is the floor.
Shakir set a career-high with 12 targets. He is on pace for 95 receptions and 1,018 yards. Samuel is worth mentioning. He saw eight targets in Week 10 and came through huge against the Chiefs with his best game as a Bills, posting 5-58-1.
Jeudy scored for the first time since Week 1. His previous Browns yardage high was 79. He has double-digit targets in back-to-back games. He struggled in his first game after the Amari Cooper trade, but he averaged six receptions and 98 yards, standing as WR18 over the last three.
Watson's 150 yards were 40 more than his previous career high. It was the first Packers receiving game at 150 since Davante Adams in 2021.
Of course, the Chiefs waited until the Bills game to get one of Worthy's best games of the season. It was the first time since September he topped 37 yards. The Bills were able to limit both Kelce and Hopkins to their lowest combined total of the year.
Hill's seven receptions were the most since Week 1. He has touchdowns in back-to-back games, though we have not seen any yardage explosion since 130 in the first week. Smith joined Larry Seiple's Week 8 1969 as the only Dolphins tight end to post 100+ yards and 2+ touchdowns. Smith was quiet through September, but since Week 5, he's averaged five receptions and 62 yards and scored three touchdowns, ranking as TE5 per game.
Henry is on pace to smash his career highs, trending to 71 receptions and 759 yards. However, his lack of touchdowns keeps him at TE17.
Westbrook-Ikhine disappointed us all by not scoring in Week 10. He made up for it with a 98-yard touchdown in Week 11. He now has five touchdowns in six games.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Russell Wilson - 7.3 points
- RB: Tony Pollard - 4.9 points
- RB: Nick Chubb - 5.0 points
- RB: Aaron Jones - 5.3 points
- WR: Terry McLaurin - 1.5 points
- WR: Darnell Mooney - 3.7 points
- WR: Diontae Johnson - 0 points
- TE: Travis Kelce - 1.8 points
- TE: Tucker Kraft - 0 points
This week's lineup posted 29.5 points.
Wilson was a popular play in DFS this week against the porous Ravens' pass defense. In a week, it felt like every passing offense hit, and a throwback Ravens-Steelers matchup limited both Wilson and Lamar Jackson.
Veteran running backs were the rage during the season's first two months. Across the board, they have started to look like it is November. All three of Pollard, Chubb, and Jones held a "Bellcow" title. Chubb and Jones were outscored by backups Jerome Ford and Cam Akers.
McLaurin ran into Defensive Rookie of the Year contender Eagles corner Quinyon Mitchell. Meanwhile, Mooney carried an injury designation against a strong Denver defense.
Players who beat it: Taysom Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Jared Goff.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 11
- QB Jameis Winston, Cleveland vs. New Orleans - Lost 35-14, 30-46, 395 yards, two touchdowns, one rush, eight yards.
- TE Zach Ertz, Washington vs. Philadelphia - Lost 26-18, six receptions, 47 yards, one touchdown, and seven targets.
- WR Diontae Johnson, Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh - Lost 18-16, two targets, zero receptions.
- TE Dalton Schultz, Houston vs. Dallas - Monday Night.
- WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas vs. Houston - Monday Night.
- WR Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia vs. Washington - Won 26-18, one reception, eight yards, two targets.
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Washington vs. Philadelphia - Lost 26-18, one reception ten yards, two targets.
- QB Joe Flacco, Indianapolis vs. NY Jets - Won 28-27, no stats
- QB Marcus Mariota, Washington vs. Philadelphia - Lost 18-26, no stats.
- RB Craig Reynolds, Detroit vs. Jacksonville - Won 52-6, two rushes, 21 yards.
- WR Allen Robinson II, Detroit vs. Jacksonville - Won 52-6, one reception seven yards, two targets.
- TE Marcedes Lewis, Chicago vs. Green Bay - Lost 20-19, no stats.
- TE Alec Ingold, Miami vs. Las Vegas - Won 34-19, no stats.
- TE Hayden Hurst, LA Chargers vs. Cincinnati - Won 34-27, inactive.
Week 12
- RB J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
- RB Gus Edwards, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
- TE Jonnu Smith, Miami vs. New England
- WR Noah Brown, Washington vs. Dallas
- WR Sterling Shepard, Tampa Bay vs. NY Giants
- WR Robert Woods, Houston vs. Tennessee
- RB DeeJay Dallas, Arizona vs. Seattle
- QB Jacoby Brissett, New England vs. Miami
- QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver vs. Las Vegas
- TE Hayden Hurst, LA Chargers vs. Baltimore
Prospect Of The Week
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
- 69 receptions
- 1,136 yards
- 7 touchdowns
Arizona at TCU, 3:00 PM, ESPN+
Arizona has lost five of its last six. To be bowl eligible, it must finish the season with wins over TCU and rival Arizona St.
Even then, McMillan may opt out.
There are two more chances to watch a player who will be in the conversation at the top of 2025 rookie drafts.
Our Jagger May has McMillan number two on his Big Board.
McMillan ranks eighth in Arizona's career receiving yards (2,104), and his 22 career touchdowns are sixth. Two more touchdowns would tie him with Dennis Northcut for third on the record book. The receiving yardage threshold is higher; 176 over the last two would push him up just one spot to Austin Hill's seventh. His numbers are down from a 90-1,402-10 season in 2023 that catapulted him to the top of the boards.
Justin Spears from Tucson.com profiled McMillan to start the season.
McMillan's size pops, and he looks every bit his listed 6'5", 212 lbs. For longtime NFL fans, Malcolm Floyd is a solid jumping-off point for a mental picture. McMillan projects as an impact "X" receiver early in his career and can stretch defenses and win outside immediately. He has the potential to grow into a primary receiver in short order. Join Jag and me on the Footballguys Dynasty Show as we work through our rookie profile series.
Blind Resume Answer
Player | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|
Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 142 | 1 |
Curtis Samuel | 5 | 58 | 1 |
Xavier Worthy | 4 | 61 | 1 |
Jonnu Smith | 6 | 101 | 2 |
Christian Watson | 4 | 150 | 0 |
Injuries and trades have created opportunities for Jeudy and Samuel to re-emerge. Worthy, well, the Chiefs were simply waiting to attempt to be cruel to the Bills. There has been heavy conversation about Hill and Waddle's disappointments in Miami, but little talk about what has contributed. Meanwhile, Watson reminded everyone who holds the highest physical ceiling for the Packers receivers.
Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football
WR John Metchie III, Houston
The return of Nico Collins is one of the biggest fantasy questions of the week. There are two knowns: Collins and Tank Dell. Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods split a rotation as backups, with Collins, Dell, and Stefon Diggs playing the bulk of snaps over the first month. Hutchinson has stepped into a starter role with Collins out, but Metchie passed Woods over the last two weeks.
Diggs, the third wheel, is out.
Two paths exist.
Path A: Hutchinson. The team utilizes his size and blocking contributions outside as a complementary piece, shifting Dell into the slot. Dell would be required to work in the quick to intermediate areas: Hutchinson and Collins' strengths lie downfield.
Path B: Metchie. This frees Dell as Metchie is capable of working in the shorter areas. This makes the Texans a more dynamic pass offense.
Which would you choose? At the end of 2023, the Texans chose Metchie, who out-snapped Hutchinson with Dell's season-ending injury. Metchie is fresh off a career-high five receptions for 74 yards and his first touchdown. He should have an opportunity to build on the success on Monday Night.
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