Shock. Jubilation. Dread. Hope.
In the middle of last week, a historic event occurred that will shape the landscape. Regardless of the outcome, life goes on.
It was not the end of the world. Some even survived Ja'Marr Chase.
Hope springs.
Christian McCaffrey is back. The Chargers continued to roll on, enforcing the culture Jim Harbaugh has instilled.
Perseverance is rewarded.
The Vikings became the third team in NFL history to win a game after running 84 offense plays and only scoring 12 points. The Lions became the first team to throw five interceptions and win since the Falcons in 2012.
Trouble lies ahead.
Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence, facing potential season-ending injuries, decimate two offenses that carried expectations into 2024. The Cowboys and Jaguars combined for 177 passing yards.
Regardless of any views, there is one truth we all can hold:
The Chiefs are going to find a way to win.
Thank you, Nathan Jahnke.
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
---|---|---|---|
A | 11 | 9 | 52 |
B | 10 | 7 | 65 |
C | 6 | 5 | 54 |
D | 7 | 6 | 68 |
E | 7 | 6 | 39 |
F | 5 | 5 | 80 |
Passing production was down yet again. The great boom of October has reverted to the offense drought from September. Teams were forced to find production from unlikely places.
Can you place this production?
Deep League Waiver Watch List
"Waivers of the Future," released after this column, provides in-depth coverage of waivers. Below is a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues.
- TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo (42% Sleeper rostered)
- RB D'Ernest Johnson, Jacksonville (37% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina (98% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Cam Akers, Minnesota (72% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Pittsburgh (24% Sleeper rostered)
- TE Josh Oliver, Minnesota (5% Sleeper rostered)
- WR John Metchie III, Houston (46% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans (20% Sleeper rostered)
Stats Of The Week
11 receptions, 264 yards, 3 touchdowns - WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati - That'll do. Chase recorded the sixth NFL game of 11+ / 264+ / 3+. Chase owns two of the six. Previously, he posted an 11-266-3 game against Kansas City in Week 17 of 2021. The others: Tyreek Hill (13-269-3, Week 12, 2020), Jimmy Smith (15-291-3, Week 2, 2000), Jerry Rice (14-28-3, Week 16, 1995), and Cloyce Box (12-302-4, Week 12, 1950). Chase is the current receiving triple crown leader, with 66 receptions, 981 yards, and ten touchdowns.
290 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns - QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore - Jackson started slow, averaging 214.5 pass yards and 1.25 passing touchdowns through his first four games. Over his last six, he has topped 280 yards every game and thrown four touchdowns in three of six. His 301.83 and 3.167 average in that run is a 17-game pace of 5,131 yards and 54 touchdowns.
428 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns - QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati - Burrow became the 28th player to throw for 400+ yards and 4+ touchdowns and lose. Dak Prescott was the last to do it in Week 4 of 2020. It was Burrow's third career 400-4 game, and he was the only player to do it more than once with the Bengals.
84 plays, 12 points, 1 win—Minnesota Vikings—The Vikings' 84 offensive snaps tied the Bears' Week 3 game for the most in 2024. In NFL history, 22 teams have run 84+ plays in regulation while scoring 12 points or less. The Vikings joined the 1978 Rams and 2011 Browns as the only teams to run 84 plays, score 12 or fewer, and win the game.
3 receptions, 109 yards, 2 touchdowns - Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans - Valdes-Scantling recorded the 112th 109+ receiving yards and 2+ touchdown game while catching three passes or fewer. His former teammate in Green Bay, Davante Adams, was the last to do it in Week 5 of 2022. It was Valdes-Scantling's seventh career 100+ yard game and second multiple-touchdown game. His previous 100-yard game was Week 7 of 2022.
50+ rushing yards, 5+ receptions, 50+ receiving yards - RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans - Kamara hit 50-5-50 for the third straight game. He became the 18th player to have a streak for 3+ games at those numbers. Christian McCaffrey (5 games) and Marshall Faulk (4) are the only players to do it more than three straight.
8 receptions, 64 yards - TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City - Kelce recorded 8+ receptions for the third consecutive game. It is the third time he has a streak of 3+ games at eight catches in his career. He had a three-game streak from Week 5 to Week 7 in 2023 and a seven-game streak from Week 8 to Week 15 in 2020. Kelce had just eight receptions for 69 yards over the first three games, but since the Chiefs lost Rashee Rice in Week 4, he has averaged 8.67 receptions and 71.67 yards, a 17-game pace of 147 catches and 1,218 yards.
50 rushing touchdowns - QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia - Hurts scored his 50th (and 51st) career touchdown in Week 10. Hurts recorded the 84th game in NFL history with 2+ passing touchdowns and 2+ rushing touchdowns. It was the second time in Hurts' career at the numbers. Josh Allen and Steve Young sit tied for the most, with four. Hurts had just two rushing touchdowns through the first five games but has eight in his last four.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
Bellcows
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | RB1 | James Conner | 12 | 5 | 12-33-1 / 5-80-0 | 48.57% |
RB2 | Trey Benson | 10 | 2 | 10-62-0 / 2-25-0 | 34.29% | |
RB3 | Emari Demercado | 3 | 0 | 3-22-0 / 0 | 8.57% | |
RB4 | DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 0 | 3-10-0 / 0 | 8.57% | |
Atlanta | RB1 | Bijan Robinson | 20 | 4 | 20-116-2 / 3-28-0 | 68.57% |
RB2 | Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 0 | 11-59-0 / 0 | 31.43% | |
Baltimore | RB1 | Derrick Henry | 16 | 1 | 16-68-1 / 1-3-0 | 80.95% |
RB2 | Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 2-(2)-0 / 2-0-0 | 19.05% | |
Buffalo | RB1 | James Cook | 19 | 3 | 19-80-1 / 1-5-0 | 78.57% |
RB2 | Ray Davis | 3 | 0 | 3-6-0 / 0 | 10.71% | |
RB3 | Ty Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 / 3-32-0 | 10.71% | |
Carolina | RB1 | Chuba Hubbard | 28 | 6 | 28-153-1 / 4-16-0 | 94.44% |
RB2 | Miles Sanders | 2 | 0 | 2-5-0 / 0 | 5.56% | |
Chicago | RB1 | D'Andre Swift | 16 | 1 | 16-59-0 / 1-6-0 | 85.00% |
RB2 | Roschon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 1-(4)-0 / 1-5-0 | 15.00% | |
Cincinnati | RB1 | Chase Brown | 13 | 11 | 13-42-1 / 9-52-0 | 100.00% |
RB2 | Khalil Herbert | No stats | ||||
Cleveland | RB1 | Nick Chubb | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Jerome Ford | |||||
RB3 | Pierre Strong Jr. | |||||
Dallas | RB1 | Rico Dowdle | 12 | 3 | 12-53-0 / 3-3-0 | 71.43% |
RB2 | Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 0 | 6-22-0 / 0 | 28.57% | |
Green Bay | RB1 | Josh Jacobs | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Emanuel Wilson | |||||
RB3 | Chris Brooks | |||||
Houston | RB1 | Joe Mixon | 25 | 4 | 25-46-1 / 2-44-0 | 96.67% |
RB2 | Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 1-11-0 / 0 | 3.33% | |
Indianapolis | RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 4 | 21-114-0 / 2-8-0 | 86.21% |
RB2 | Trey Sermon | 0 | 1 | 0 / 1-4-0 | 3.45% | |
RB3 | Tyler Goodson | 0 | 3 | 0 / 2-9-1 | 10.34% | |
Jacksonville | RB1 | Travis Etienne Jr. | 11 | 1 | 11-44-0 / 1-(1)-0 | 85.71% |
RB2 | Tank Bigsby | 2 | 0 | 2-4-0 / 0 | 14.29% | |
Kansas City | RB1 | Kareem Hunt | 14 | 10 | 14-35-0 / 7-65-0 | 85.71% |
RB2 | Carson Steele | 2 | 0 | 2-3-0 / 0 | 7.14% | |
RB3 | Samaje Perine | 0 | 2 | 0 / 2-37-0 | 7.14% | |
LA Rams | RB1 | Kyren Williams | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Blake Corum | |||||
Minnesota | RB1 | Aaron Jones | 17 | 3 | 17-88-0 / 2-13-0 | 52.63% |
RB2 | Cam Akers | 13 | 1 | 13-38-0 / 1-9-0 | 36.84% | |
RB3 | Ty Chandler | 4 | 0 | 4-18-0 / 0 | 10.53% | |
New England | RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 1 | 20-74-0 / 1-3-0 | 63.64% |
RB2 | Antonio Gibson | 5 | 0 | 5-26-0 / 0 | 15.15% | |
RB3 | JaMycal Hasty | 6 | 1 | 6-20-0 / 0 | 21.21% | |
New Orleans | RB1 | Alvin Kamara | 17 | 6 | 17-55-0 / 5-54-0 | 69.70% |
RB2 | Jordan Mims | 2 | 2 | 2-10-0 / 1-4-0 | 12.12% | |
OW | Taysom Hill | 4 | 2 | 4-14-0 / 2-36-0 | 18.18% | |
NY Jets | RB1 | Breece Hall | 10 | 4 | 10-52-0 / 4-31-0 | 63.64% |
RB2 | Braelon Allen | 7 | 1 | 7-27-0 / 1-7-0 | 36.36% | |
Philadelphia | RB1 | Saquon Barkley | 14 | 1 | 14-66-0 / 1-12-0 | 46.88% |
RB2 | Kenneth Gainwell | 7 | 1 | 7-30-0 / 1-9-0 | 25.00% | |
RB3 | Will Shipley | 9 | 0 | 9-34-0 / 0 | 28.13% | |
San Francisco | RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 7 | 13-39-0 / 6-68-0 | 90.91% |
RB2 | Jordan Mason | 1 | 0 | 1-5-0 / 0 | 4.55% | |
RB3 | Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 0 | 1-0-0 / 0 | 4.55% | |
Seattle | RB1 | Ken Walker III | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Zach Charbonnet | |||||
Tennessee | RB1 | Tony Pollard | 9 | 4 | 9-44-0 / 4-19-0 | 56.52% |
RB2 | Tyjae Spears | 7 | 3 | 7-47-0 / 3-4-0 | 43.48% |
Conner's Bellcow role is on notice. Benson has come on strong with fresh legs. Blowout game scripts have allowed him to show he deserves more work. Either way, he is receiving much more than mop-up duty. Conner remains on pace for his best season.
Robinson had his best game of the year. He has been RB1 and the difference-making fantasy player everyone expected since Week 6, averaging 22.4 points per game. Allgeier had every opportunity to vulture a touchdown, failing three times from the one-yard line before Robinson punched it in. Hopefully, the Falcons get the hint.
Ravens-Bengals turned into a shootout, and the Ravens abandoned the run game for the first time in 2024. Henry still scored a touchdown because Henry scores touchdowns.
Cook maintains his dominant work share but needed a late touchdown to avoid his third single-digit game in four weeks. His pass-game usage has been disappointing, as he recorded just one catch for five yards.
Hubbard celebrated his four-year contract extension with a huge game. Sanders left on a cart. With Jonathon Brooks sure to debut following the Week 11 bye, Sanders is droppable in all but the deepest leagues. Hubbard's knee injury means Brooks is a hold in all formats.
No goal-line opportunities meant no reason for Roschon Johnson to see work. Everything is a struggle for Chicago.
Brown is the only back in Cincinnati who matters. Herbert is an injury hold, though he could work as he gains comfort in the offense. Brown's emergence in the passing game raises his ceiling.
Dowdle has the lead-back role locked down. Elliott returned from vacation in Week 9. The Cowboys are in trouble offensively.
Detroit is a difficult matchup. With 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, Mixon showed his floor is very high. Mixon continues to be one of the best picks in fantasy.
Taylor took all the rush game work. The Colts got cute and schemed an easy touchdown throw to Goodson. Taylor is a good buy option for teams looking to win a title. The Colts have a Week 14 bye, but Denver, Tennessee, and the New York Giants are on the playoff schedule; all three are in the top half of points allowed to running backs.
Bigsby left with an ankle injury, shifting Etienne to a Bellcow role. In the best case, the Jaguars focus on a short, controlled passing game with Mac Jones, and Etienne is heavily involved. In the worst case, Jones lowers the offensive ceiling, and nothing works. Still, if Bigsby misses time, Etienne can rebound his value.
Hunt has topped 20 touches for five straight games. This game broke a four-game touchdown streak. Hunt has been grinding his way to fantasy points with no runs over 20 yards. The Chiefs can nearly clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win over Buffalo in Week 11. If that happens, there may be little reason to push Isiah Pacheco back from injury, preserving him to have fresh legs for the playoffs.
I am holding Minnesota here for now. Jones left on a cart late in the third quarter but was able to return. The Vikings ran an NFL season-high 84 snaps, and Darnold's struggles forced reliance on the run game. That allowed both Akers and Chandler to see work. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth most points per game and the third most to running backs. Despite a favorable fantasy closing schedule, this performance in this spot makes the offense a potential fantasy sell. Jones has just one rushing touchdown since Week 1. The Dynasty community has caught on. Jones was RB24 two weeks ago but has dropped to RB31.
Stevenson did not score the one touchdown necessary to beat the Bears, but he maintained his high usage otherwise.
As detailed in Stats of the Week, Kamara is on a great run. The Saints have new energy after Dennis Allen's dismissal.
Hall has just one 100-yard game, three rushing touchdowns, and one receiving touchdown. As a result, he is barely holding on at RB22. His pass game usage and potential keep him in lineups, but he is far from the league-altering player who closed 2023.
Barkley's having his quiet game of the year in a blowout spot is disappointing, but the Eagles were able to rest players against Dallas. Expect a huge game in Week 11 in a pivotal matchup against Washington.
McCaffrey was the reveal we were all waiting on. He looked like McCaffrey. During the game, the broadcast mentioned that the heat in Florida prevented him from getting any more usage. Still, he was heavily targeted in the passing game, making several big plays downfield. He is locked into his Bellcow role and should expect to close the season as the elite fantasy back we know.
Pollard was injured early against the Chargers, and the Titans played from behind. His performance gives little reason to believe his workshare will decrease, though he has been managing injuries.
Committee With A Lead
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver | RB1 | Audric Estime | 14 | 0 | 14-53-0 / 0 | 73.68% |
RB2 | Javonte Williams | 1 | 2 | 1-1-0 / 2-6-0 | 15.79% | |
RB3 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 0 | 2-12-0 / 0 | 10.53% | |
Las Vegas | RB1 | Alexander Mattison | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Zamir White | |||||
RB3 | Ameer Abdullah | |||||
LA Chargers | RB1 | J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 3 | 15-50-0 / 3-5-0 | 60.00% |
RB2 | Gus Edwards | 10 | 0 | 10-55-0 / 0 | 33.33% | |
RB3 | Hassan Haskins | 2 | 0 | 2-4-1 / 0 | 6.67% | |
Miami | RB1 | De'Von Achane | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Raheem Mostert | |||||
RB3 | Jaylen Wright | |||||
NY Giants | RB1 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.. | 18 | 2 | 18-103-1 / 1-1-0 | 68.97% |
RB2 | Devin Singletary | 8 | 1 | 8-40-0 / 1-5-0 | 31.03% | |
Washington | RB1 | Austin Ekeler | 13 | 2 | 13-44-2 / 1-7-0 | 71.43% |
RB2 | Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 0 | 4-7-1 / 0 | 19.05% | |
RB3 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 2 | 0 | 2-4-0 / 0 | 9.52% |
Denver may not be categorized correctly here; Estime's usage may need a Bellcow label. The team benched Williams and attempted to play a grind-out game with the Chiefs. It worked until the Chiefs came through with a game-winning field goal block. Estime's emergence makes the backfield too unpredictable to start any of these options outside of an emergency.
Edwards returned and immediately shifted the backfield usage from Dobbins' Bellcow role. Edwards' involvement is a giveaway to the defense, and the team has a higher ceiling with Dobbins' versatility. A more conservative offensive approach is a case of subtraction by addition, but the Chargers still won and are one of the year's best surprises.
Tracy took advantage of a kind matchup against the Panthers. Tracy has been RB20 since Week 5 and is a bright spot for a lost Giants season.
The Steelers had the Commanders' number. Ekeler's two goal-line touchdowns gave him his best fantasy outcome of the year, but the team struggled to get much yardage.
True Committees
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit | RB1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 19 | 3 | 19-71-0 / 2-37-0 | 62.86% |
RB2 | David Montgomery | 12 | 1 | 12-32-1 / 1-24-0 | 37.14% | |
Pittsburgh | RB1 | Najee Harris | 21 | 0 | 21-53-1 / 0 | 52.50% |
RB2 | Jaylen Warren | 14 | 2 | 14-66-0 / 2-29-0 | 40.00% | |
RB3 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 0 | 3-14-0 / 0 | 7.50% | |
Tampa Bay | RB1 | Rachaad White | 10 | 7 | 10-31-0 / 6-39-1 | 51.52% |
RB2 | Bucky Irving | 13 | 3 | 13-73-1 / 3-14-0 | 48.48% |
Montgomery was RB16 and Gibbs RB17 in Week 10. Gibbs is RB7, and Montgomery is RB14 in points per game. They both provide quiet consistency, though they have just one game each over 20 points. We signed up for this result: fringe RB1 weeks every week while knowing that if either misses time, the other can jump into the Top 5 overall.
Harris was injured late against Washington, and we are watching that this week. Warren has rebounded from the injury that knocked him out early in 2024, averaging 71 scrimmage yards over the last three. His rebound has been quiet, as Harris has dominated the conversation, and Warren has yet to score. If Harris misses time, that will change fast. Watch for Patterson as a contributor if Harris is out.
Sean Tucker, we hardly knew you. The Buccaneers were back to their almost-dead-even usage we saw at the beginning of the year. Both scored and were inside the Top 7 running backs on the week. Irving and White are the engines of the offense now that Godwin is gone.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | 37 | Drake London | 12 | 8-97-0 | 32.43% |
Darnell Mooney | 10 | 5-96-0 | 27.03% | ||
Kyle Pitts | 6 | 4-55-0 | 16.22% | ||
Las Vegas | Bye | Jakobi Meyers | |||
Brock Bowers | |||||
Tre Tucker | |||||
NY Jets | 33 | Davante Adams | 13 | 6-31-0 | 39.39% |
Garrett Wilson | 6 | 5-41-0 | 18.18% | ||
Breece Hall | 4 | 4-31-0 | 12.12% |
The Falcons had a chance to put the NFC South on ice and push Tampa Bay three games back. They choked. At least London was active and involved coming off the hip pointer that ended his Week 9 early. His 97 yards were his second-highest total of the season. London is WR13 at 13 points per game, but he has done it via consistency, topping 16.6 just once and scoring between 9.4 and 16.6 in seven of ten. Meanwhile, Mooney has topped 86 yards in three straight weeks. Mooney is on pace for 1,204 yards; his previous career high is 1,055, and his five touchdowns are already a career-high.
The Jets are 2-0 on Thursday Night Football and 1-7 in any other timeslot. Their Week 9 win over Houston felt like a season-saver. But getting blown out in Arizona is the opposite. Adams dominated targets like his Green Bay prime; unfortunately, he produced like a receiver who will be 32 in a month. Doubling the misery, Wilson tied for his fewest targets of the season and lowest fantasy output since a sloppy Week 4 game against Denver in the rain.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo | 35 | Khalil Shakir | 9 | 6-58-0 | 25.71% |
Curtis Samuel Jr. | 8 | 4-35-0 | 22.86% | ||
Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 2-24-0 | 14.29% | ||
Carolina | 25 | Jalen Coker | 8 | 3-41-0 | 32.00% |
Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 4-16-0 | 24.00% | ||
Xavier Legette | 4 | 3-40-0 | 16.00% | ||
Cincinnati | 54 | Ja'Marr Chase | 17 | 11-264-3 | 31.48% |
Chase Brown | 11 | 9-52-0 | 20.37% | ||
Mike Gesicki | 9 | 4-30-0 | 16.67% | ||
Dallas | 29 | CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 6-21-0 | 34.48% |
Jake Ferguson | 5 | 4-24-0 | 17.24% | ||
Jalen Tolbert | 5 | 3-14-0 | 17.24% | ||
Detroit | 24 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 6-60-1 | 33.33% |
Sam LaPorta | 6 | 3-66-1 | 25.00% | ||
Jameson Williams | 5 | 3-53-0 | 20.83% | ||
Jacksonville | 21 | Evan Engram | 8 | 6-40-0 | 38.10% |
Gabe Davis | 4 | 1-19-0 | 19.05% | ||
Brenton Strange | 3 | 2-25-0 | 14.29% | ||
Kansas City | 40 | Travis Kelce | 12 | 8-64-1 | 30.00% |
Kareem Hunt | 10 | 7-65-0 | 25.00% | ||
DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 4-56-0 | 12.50% | ||
LA Rams | Monday Night | Cooper Kupp | |||
Demarcus Robinson | |||||
Tyler Johnson | |||||
Miami | Monday Night | De'Von Achane | |||
Jonnu Smith | |||||
Tyreek Hill | |||||
NY Giants | 32 | Malik Nabers | 10 | 6-50-0 | 31.25% |
Wan'Dale Robinson | 8 | 5-51-0 | 25.00% | ||
Theo Johnson | 6 | 4-37-0 | 18.75% | ||
San Francisco | 34 | Jauan Jennings | 11 | 7-93-0 | 32.35% |
Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 6-68-0 | 20.59% | ||
Ricky Pearsall | 6 | 4-73-1 | 17.65% | ||
Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 5-62-0 | 17.65% | ||
Seattle | Bye | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | |||
AJ Barner | |||||
Tyler Lockett | |||||
Tennessee | 23 | Calvin Ridley | 9 | 5-84-2 | 39.13% |
Tony Pollard | 4 | 4-19-0 | 17.39% | ||
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3-31-0 | 13.04% |
With Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman already out due to injury, the Bills lost Kincaid after he landed hard on his knee diving for a deep pass. His departure led to Samuel's best-ish game of the season. The Bills need all hands on deck, with the Chiefs looming in Week 11.
Stop the presses; the Panthers are on a winning streak. The Panthers' receiver personnel feels locked in. Rookies Coker, Legette, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders are getting their opportunity. Coker has been handling the majority of slot snaps, an exciting prospect for his long-term status as a 6'3" 212 lbs player with the athleticism to win outside. Veteran David Moore is the WR3. He is a de facto player-coach, understanding Dave Canales's scheme to support the youth.
Chase's historic week is detailed above. Brown deserves this space. Brown recorded the tenth game of nine catches by a Bengals running back. In Week 2, 2016, Giovani Bernard was the last to do it. Brown's nine catches are a new league high for running backs in 2024.
Lamb received double-digit targets, with Cooper Rush and Trey Lance splitting time. That allowed Lamb to become the first player since Cooper Kupp in Week 8, 2023, with 21 yards or less on double-digit targets. The Eagles secondary has been playing very well, so more significant games may be ahead, but losing Dak Prescott for the season looks to lock in disappointment for a player many selected first overall in August.
St. Brown has a touchdown in seven straight games. His season average is six catches and 58 yards. He posted 6-60. That works to a 17-game pace of 102-990. The touchdowns are remarkable, but Williams and LaPorta have attacked downfield, and volume has fallen, putting St. Brown right back to the low ADoT profile of his rookie year, when he posted a 90-912 line. Drafters selected him in the first half of round one, hoping for a player capable of pushing for WR1 overall. Instead, they got a fringe WR1. LaPorta left injured, so watch reports from our great Adam Hutchison. He is another draft disappointment, but LaPorta does have touchdowns in three of his last five.
Jacksonville continues the Debbie Downer run. Trevor Lawrence's season may be over. The Jaguars' season is over. Mac Jones struggled in his first meaningful time of 2024. Engram's high-volume, low-yardage games are our best hope.
Hunt posted the first double-digit target game for a Chiefs running back since Jamaal Charles in 2013. This usage came out of nowhere. Hunt had averaged 1.4 receptions and 10.2 yards coming in. I touched on his lack of big run plays in the Backfield Hierarchy, and this receiving profile would be a welcome addition to his RB10 with 15.6 points per game.
Nabers is averaging 6.5 receptions and 55 yards with no touchdowns in four games since returning from concussion in Week 7. He averaged 8.8 receptions and 96.5 yards in the first four games before the injury. Can we see Drew Lock, please?
Jennings played nearly every snap and may have played them all if not for a blind collision with Antoine Winfield Jr. that sidelined him momentarily. He is a weekly Top 30 fantasy receiver. The 49ers utilizing Kyle Juszczyk over three wide receiver sets has been a topic in social media. Juszczyk played a season-low 39% of snaps. He had been under 57% of snaps just one other time in 2024. Meanwhile, he played under 43% of snaps in 11 of 19 games in 2023. The wide receiver injuries and a power back in Jordan Mason forced more heavy sets. The team looks comfortable with Jennings, Samuel, and Pearsall in 3 WR sets. With McCaffrey back, expect more of those looks. All three receivers are viable in fantasy.
Ridley caught just two passes for 14 yards in three games between Week 3 and 6 before going public with his frustrations. Since that point, he has averaged 5.75 catches and 85.5 yards, a full-season pace of 98 and 1,454. He scored his first touchdown since Week 2. Ridley was a great midseason buy low, and even with the switch back to Will Levis, there is plenty of reason for faith his production will continue.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore | 32 | Rashod Bateman | 8 | 6-54-1 | 25.00% |
Mark Andrews | 7 | 6-68-1 | 21.88% | ||
Zay Flowers | 6 | 4-34-0 | 18.75% | ||
Denver | 27 | Courtland Sutton | 9 | 6-70-1 | 33.33% |
Devaughn Vele | 4 | 4-39-1 | 14.81% | ||
Marvin Mims Jr.. | 4 | 4-13-0 | 14.81% | ||
Houston | 32 | Tank Dell | 9 | 5-39-0 | 28.13% |
John Metchie III | 6 | 5-74-1 | 18.75% | ||
Dalton Schultz | 4 | 3-66-0 | 12.50% | ||
Indianapolis | 35 | Josh Downs | 10 | 7-72-0 | 28.57% |
Alec Pierce | 7 | 4-81-1 | 20.00% | ||
Adonai Mitchell | 6 | 6-71-0 | 17.14% | ||
LA Chargers | 18 | Will Dissly | 6 | 5-30-0 | 33.33% |
J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3-5-0 | 16.67% | ||
Ladd McConkey | 2 | 2-52-0 | 11.11% | ||
Minnesota | 37 | Justin Jefferson | 9 | 5-48-0 | 24.32% |
T.J. Hockenson | 9 | 8-72-0 | 24.32% | ||
Josh Oliver | 6 | 4-52-0 | 16.22% | ||
New Orleans | 21 | Alvin Kamara | 6 | 5-54-0 | 28.57% |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 3-109-2 | 14.29% | ||
Juwan Johnson | 3 | 2-22-0 | 14.29% | ||
Philadelphia | 20 | A.J. Brown | 7 | 5-109-0 | 35.00% |
Dallas Goedert | 3 | 2-25-1 | 15.00% | ||
DeVonta Smith | 3 | 2-14-0 | 15.00% | ||
Pittsburgh | 26 | George Pickens | 7 | 5-91-1 | 26.92% |
Calvin Austin III | 6 | 2-20-0 | 23.08% | ||
Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3-17-1 | 11.54% | ||
Washington | 32 | Zach Ertz | 8 | 4-31-0 | 25.00% |
Noah Brown | 7 | 3-33-0 | 21.88% | ||
Terry McLaurin | 6 | 5-113-0 | 18.75% |
Everyone ate for the Ravens except Flowers. Bateman was left for dead following the Diontae Johnson trade; the bounceback here was welcome. Bateman is still "just" 24 and is flirting with a 1,000-yard season. Johnson is unlikely to be a Raven in 2024; this is an excellent opportunity to buy Bateman in Dynasty formats.
I called out Sutton's recent production on multiple platforms the past week. After a strong game against Kansas City, the cat is officially out of the bag. Still, his past two months do not align with WR36's overall scoring.
Metchie is the feel-good story of the week. He carried buzz into a Week 9 island game but was a disappointment. He was excellent in Week 10. He has out-snapped Robert Woods in the last two weeks. With Nico Collins hopefully back in Week 10, our Dynasty Brains would like to see the Texans give Collins, Dell, and Metchie heavy runs in 3 WR sets, with Metchie holding the opportunity to lock into a full-time role in 2025, assuming Stefon Diggs departs in free agency.
The Colts can trade Michael Pittman Jr. with a post-June 1st designation and save $18 million off their cap, spreading $5 mil of dead cap in each of 2025 and 2026. The Colts have ample cap space, but the future is uncertain with Anthony Richardson's current status. Downs, Pierce, and Mitchell look capable of serving as starters, but there is a three-year age gap between 27-year-old Pittman and 24-year-old Pierce.
The Chargers are this week's frustration. In Week 9, the passing attack was explosive, heavily targeting McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Joshua Palmer, with Dobbins looking explosive as the Bellcow. In Week 10, Dissly had as many targets as the three combined, and Edwards returned to muddle the backfield. Hopefully, it was just a Titans defense that has played well, and a big lead is the only reason for the change. The Chargers of Week 9 have a much higher ceiling than Greg Roman pulling the plug on Justin Herbert just because Edwards returned.
The Vikings' performance was a mess. Facing a smash spot against the Jaguars, Darnold had his worst performance of the year. He has had five interceptions over the last two weeks after throwing five in total in his first seven. Jefferson had his worst game of the season. The tight ends were a bright spot. Hockenson returned as a significant contributor after getting his feet wet in Week 9. Oliver is a curious development. He took over as the TE1 in snap counts in Week 8 and has been TE10 over the last three weeks.
Kamara is the lead option. Any other play outside of potentially Taysom Hill is emergency only. Mason Tipton has been a buzzy name the last two weeks; he has no catches and did not earn a target. His Week 7 6-45 game was likely the product of comfort with fellow rookie Spencer Rattler.
Brown did Brown things. Smith missed practice with a hamstring injury but did not carry an injury designation. The Cowboys presented no challenge to Philadelphia. The Commanders loom as a massive game in a short week.
Pickens has averaged 4.67 receptions and 92 yards, with his first two touchdowns of the year in the three weeks since Russell Wilson has taken over. He is WR6 over that span. Mike Williams came through with a game-winning touchdown on a deep pass in his first game as a Steeler. Van Jefferson still played 71% of the snaps because of Arthur Smith, but Williams adds an extra element to the offense.
McLaurin is on pace for the best season of his career and is 289 yards from extending a four-year 1,000-yard streak. Pittsburgh was a problematic matchup, holding Jayden Daniels to the worst game of his career.
Offenses Under All Thresholds
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 24 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 5-54-1 | 20.83% |
Trey McBride | 5 | 4-71-0 | 20.83% | ||
James Conner | 5 | 5-80-0 | 20.83% | ||
Chicago | 26 | Keenan Allen | 6 | 5-44-0 | 23.08% |
DJ Moore | 6 | 3-24-0 | 23.08% | ||
Rome Odunze | 6 | 3-23-0 | 23.08% | ||
Cleveland | Bye | Cedric Tillman | |||
Jerry Jeudy | |||||
Elijah Moore | |||||
David Njoku | |||||
Green Bay | Bye | Christian Watson | |||
Tucker Kraft | |||||
Jayden Reed | |||||
Romeo Doubs | |||||
New England | 23 | Kayshon Boutte | 6 | 4-47-0 | 26.09% |
DeMario Douglas | 5 | 4-50-0 | 21.74% | ||
Austin Hooper | 4 | 3-64-0 | 17.39% | ||
Tampa Bay | 29 | Cade Otton | 8 | 5-35-0 | 27.59% |
Rachaad White | 7 | 6-39-1 | 24.14% | ||
Rakim Jarrett | 4 | 2-10-0 | 13.79% |
- A huge lead and the Cardinals' willingness to ride the run game meant we should be thrilled with Harrison's and McBride's production. Harrison is just two touchdowns from tying Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald's shared franchise rookie record of 8. Many view Harrison as a disappointment; his dynasty value has dropped to WR7, but he is WR15 on the season, pacing for a 56-848-10 line. Fitzgerald's rookie season was 58-780-6. Water is still wet, and McBride still did not catch a touchdown.
The Chicago Bears were in attendance for a football game with the New England Patriots. In early October, the Bears scored 36 points against Carolina and 35 against Jacksonville in back-to-back weeks. They have 27 points since. Suddenly, thinking that a 4-2 team with wins over Tennessee, a WR-less Rams, Carolina, and Jacksonville was playoff-bound feels messed up.
The Patriots cruised against Chicago. During the game, the Patriots beat relayed that Kendrick Bourne would sit as the team wanted to focus on their youth. Then, 27-year-old K.J. Osborn played his most snaps of the season.
Otton had his quietest game in a month after topping eight receptions, 77 yards, and scoring thrice in his previous three games. The team had a short week, and the 49ers allowed the 10th fewest points to tight ends in 2024. On October 3rd, the Buccaneers were 3-1, leading the Falcons while running out the clock late until Bucky Irving fumbled. After that fumble, they are 1-5 and without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans after losing to the Chiefs in overtime and the 49ers on a field goal as time expired.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Aaron Rodgers - 4 points
- RB: Travis Etienne Jr. - 4.8 points
- RB: Javonte Williams - 1.7 points
- WR: DeVonta Smith - 2.4 points
- WR: Brian Thomas Jr. - 2.2 points
- WR: Xavier Worthy - 1.6 points
- WR: Diontae Johnson - 1.1 points
- TE: Jake Ferguson - 2.4 points
This week's lineup posted 20.2 points.
Rodgers, Etienne, Worthy, Johnson, and Ferguson have solidified themselves as some of the most disappointing fantasy picks of 2024. Williams was benched for rookie Audric Estime. He is on drop watch. It was a difficult week for the rest of the season value for Etienne, Thomas, and Ferguson, losing Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott this week.
Smith carried an injury designation and was not needed as the Eagles ran away from the Cowboys.
Players who beat it: Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Derek Carr, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Calvin Ridley. Josh Allen tied the total.
Ja'Marr Chase scored 220% more points, with 44.4.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 10
- WR Odell Beckham Jr., Miami vs. LA Rams - Monday
- RB Samaje Perine, Kansas City vs. Denver - Won 16-14, 2 receptions, 37 yards
- TE Josh Oliver, Minnesota vs. Jacksonville - Won 12-7, 4 receptions, 52 yards
- RB Hassan Haskins, LA Chargers vs. Tennessee - Won 27-17, 2 rushes, 4 yards, one touchdown
- QB Josh Johnson, Baltimore vs. Cincinnati - Won 35-34, DNP
- FB Michael Burton, Denver vs. Kansas City - Lost 16-14, no stats
Week 11
- QB Joe Flacco, Indianapolis vs. NY Jets
- WR Diontae Johnson, Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
- TE Dalton Schultz, Houston vs. Dallas
- TE Zach Ertz, Washington vs. Philadelphia
- QB Jameis Winston, Cleveland vs. New Orleans
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Washington vs. Philadelphia
- WR Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia vs. Washington
- WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas vs. Houston
- QB Marcus Mariota, Washington vs. Philadelphia
- RB Craig Reynolds, Detroit vs. Jacksonville
- WR Allen Robinson II, Detroit vs. Jacksonville
- TE Marcedes Lewis, Chicago vs. Green Bay
- TE Alec Ingold, Miami vs. Las Vegas
Prospects Of The Week
RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise St.
- 224 carries, 1,734 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns, 16 receptions, 93 yards, one touchdown
- #13 Boise St. at San Jose St., 7 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
Jeanty was the leader in betting odds to win the Heisman Trophy a month ago. Those odds have dwindled, not really to the fault of Jeanty, who has averaged 175.75 yards over his last four games. Unfortunately, a running back from a non-P5 conference has to post superhuman numbers to remain in contention. The race has shifted to Colorado's Travis Hunter, an almost guaranteed Top 5 NFL draft pick playing nearly every snap on both sides of the ball for Colorado's surprising run through the Big 12 and into a potential playoff spot.
The reality is Jeanty likely already had his best chance at a Heisman moment, rushing for 192 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-34 loss to now #1 Oregon back in Week 2.
But Dynasty fantasy football managers know Jeanty. My co-host Jagger May and I dove into Jeanty on this week's Dynasty Show.
A shifty back with a low center of gravity but the power and wiggle to bring back memories of Maurice Jones-Drew. Jeanty is the current favorite to top Dynasty rookie drafts and the top back off the board in April's NFL Draft, but the class is deep, and there is plenty of time left in that process.
Jeanty is on the brink of making history. He is 89 yards from passing Jay Ajayi's single-season record of 1,823 and 573 from Cedric Minter's school career record of 4,475. With five more rushing touchdowns, he would catch Ajayi's single-season 28, though he would have some serious work to catch Ian Johnson's career record 58, needing 14. Boise St. has turned out backs NFL fans will know over the last 15 years, with Doug Martin, Jeremy McNichols, and Alexander Mattison joining Ajayi and Jeanty.
Boise St. is still hunting for the G5 playoff spot. A win over San Jose St. can clinch a place in the Mountain West championship game, but the playoff spot will require them to run the table. Saturday's game will likely be lost in the shuffle, appearing in the same time slot as Georgia—Tennessee and Oregon—Wisconsin. Jeanty's last best national window outside of a playoff appearance is likely Black Friday when Boise St. plays Oregon St. at noon. Of course, Colorado is also playing in the same window. Life is tough for running backs.
Blind Resume Answer
Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
---|---|---|---|
Chase Brown | 11 | 9 | 52 |
Kareem Hunt | 10 | 7 | 65 |
Alvin Kamara | 6 | 5 | 54 |
Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 6 | 68 |
Rachaad White | 7 | 6 | 39 |
James Conner | 5 | 5 | 80 |
Kamara and McCaffrey are no shock. Even White's reputation as a receiver is well established. Brown, Hunt, and Conner were shockers.
The year of the running back continues.
Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football
RB Jaylen Wright, Miami
Miami fans and media are frustrated. This season was supposed to be an "all-in" year after a disappointing end to 2023 that included choking away a three-game lead in the AFC, losing four of their last six, and losing a non-competitive wild-card weekend game to the Chiefs.
It has not materialized.
The scary Week 2 concussion of Tua Tagovailoa has prevented the offense from getting on track. The shine is off coach Mike McDaniel's eclectic personality, and those around the team know McDaniel is 4-10 over his last 14.
One thing is sure in a lost season: Everyone wants to see the young players. Wright is one who carried plenty of offseason hype. He has topped 33 yards just once, a 13-carry, 86-yard game in a Week 5 win over New England. Coincidence or not, that was the last time the Dolphins won.
In his press conference this week, McDaniel was asked about Wright: "In hindsight, our plan in the game, particularly with Jaylen, was to have him get more opportunities. It was trending that way, and then the offense had eight possessions. I would have been surprised if you guys would have told me, 'Yeah, he had two carries.' I would have been like, 'What? What happened?' That wasn't the plan going in."
The Dolphins received the breaks they needed in Week 10, with Denver, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati all losing. A win would keep them just one game back from Denver in the loss column. McDaniel may follow his pregame plan and involve Wright. The question this week and his subsequent response could make his usage purposeful. But a loss here may mean little reason not to play Wright over Raheem Mostert.
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