The NFL has prided itself on parity.
The World Series wrapped up between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, two mega markets with Top-Five payrolls.
The NBA has seen sustained dominance by players with one-word names: Steph, LeBron, Kobe, and Jordan.
College football just said goodbye to Nick Saban, who led Alabama to one of the most dominant runs in all sports. He will now be replaced by his longtime assistant coach, Kirby Smart, who is building his own dynasty at Georgia.
The NFL has sold the story that teams can rise from nowhere. Joe Flacco's and Nick Foles' championship wins are examples of unexpected runs.
It is all a lie.
It has been over a decade since Flacco's miracle run, and we have seen four Tom Brady Super Bowl wins and three Patrick Mahomes II Super Bowl wins. The Rams famously took an aggressive approach to offloading draft picks and pushing all in to build a super team.
2024 is a year of "haves" and "have nots."
Nine teams have two wins through nine weeks of play. Carolina, New Orleans, New England, Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Tennessee, and the New York Giants are looking at the 2025 draft. The Dolphins are there, too, but their "all-in" mentality and playing a significant portion of the season without Tua Tagovailoa can allow people to keep dreaming.
Meanwhile, eleven teams have six wins or more.
Over 70% of the playoff field feels set through nine weeks of football.
Week 9 was Separation Sunday.
Buffalo over Miami. Atlanta over Dallas. LA Chargers over Cleveland. Washington over the Giants. Philadelphia over Jacksonville.
All games that effectively ended seasons.
We are just past the midseason point, but the trade deadline looms in Week 10, and teams have already made aggressive moves that resemble MLB or NBA deadlines more closely. The hot seat for multiple coaches will likely burn too hot very soon, and teams will look to 2025.
The Monday Night contest signifies the current landscape, with Tampa Bay hoping to stay in the NFC South hunt.
The man they face just needs one name.
Mahomes.
Thank you, Nathan Jahnke.
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Touchowns |
---|---|---|---|
A | 155 | 60 | 0 |
B | 106 | 27 | 2 |
C | 120 | 37 | 1 |
D | 159 | 40 | 2 |
E | 128 | 26 | 0 |
Bellcows! Running backs had a massive Week 9 in the midst of a huge season for the position. Multiple dual-purpose backs produced season and career highs.
Can you place this production?
Deep League Waiver Watch List
"Waivers of the Future," released after this column, provides in-depth coverage of waivers. Below is a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues.
- QB Cooper Rush, Dallas (5% Sleeper rostered)
- RB Dylan Laube, Las Vegas (52% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee (22% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Jha'Quan Jackson, Tennessee (4% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Kendrick Bourne, New England (36% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Ray-Ray McCloud III, Atlanta (71% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Jalen Brooks, Dallas (9% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Mason Tipton, New Orleans (37% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., New Orleans (9% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Ramel Keyton, Las Vegas (0% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia (65% Sleeper rostered)
- WR Johnny Wilson, Philadelphia (34% Sleeper rostered)
- TE AJ Barner, Seattle (30% Sleeper rostered)
Stats Of The Week
159 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 3 receptions, 40 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Three of Barkley's top seven rushing games have come with the Eagles. Barkley is on pace for 1,966 rush yards. Barkley's 925 yards are the fifth most through a players first eight games with a team behind…
106 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 1 reception, 27 receiving yards - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore - Henry topped 1,000 yards in his 9th game with Baltimore. He is just in front of Barkley's pace (Barkley has had his bye) with 946 in his first eight and the fourth most with 1,052 yards through his first nine. Henry's 11 rushing touchdowns trail only Eric Dickerson's 13 to start his Rams stint.
29 rush attempts, 155 rushing yards, 9 targets, 6 receptions, 60 yards - RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans - Kamara posted the first 150 rushing - 50 receiving yard game of 2024. It was the 81st 150-50 game in NFL history, and Kamara's first. Deuce McAllister is the other Saint to have done it. Kamara tied his career high with 155 rush yards. His 29 attempts were the second most of his career, with 30 in Week 18 of 2021 his high. Kamara, who has never topped 1,000 rushing yards, is on pace for 1,247 along with 693 receiving yards. His previous high in scrimmage yards was 1,688 in 2020. He is pacing to beat it by 250.
73% completion, 1,464 passing yards, 13 touchdown passes - QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta - Is Cousins starting to feel comfortable? The Falcons have won five of their last six games, and Cousins has 1,464 yards and 13 touchdowns over the previous five. A 509-yard game against Tampa Bay boosts the passing total, but Cousins has 3+ touchdowns three times out of those five and is on a 4,059-yard, 44-touch pass pace over that streak.
7 receptions, 180 yards, 2 touchdowns - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle - Occasionally, a young player will have a game that forces everyone to complete reevaluation. Smith-Njigba did that Sunday. The narrative locked in that he was a low ADoT player who would need significant volume that may not be available in his situation. On Sunday, he exploded, making multiple plays downfield and was a crucial factor in the Seahawks pushing the Rams to overtime. This was the third game in Seattle history with seven receptions or more, 180 yards, and two touchdowns. Tyler Lockett and Steven Largent have the other two. The yardage total tied Jonathan Williams (Week 6, 1988) for the fourth most in franchise history. Smith-Njigba's game raises his overall ceiling on his profile. Hopefully, you were able to buy low.
282 passing yards, two touchdowns - QB Justin Herbert, LA Chargers - The Chargers set the offseason and early season narrative as a "run only" offense, with Herbert failing to top 180 yards over the first four games. It is worth remembering Herbert had a meaningful foot injury that cost him half of the preseason. He looks healthy now and has topped 279 passing yards for three straight games and threw two touchdowns each of the last two weeks. Managers can leave Week 9 wondering how much higher this total could have gone, as Herbert was at 250 yards at halftime, and the Browns did not push the Chargers at all. The Chargers see a potentially difficult passing matchup against Tennessee in Week 10, but their closing schedule opens wide up with Baltimore and Tampa Bay giving up the most and third most yards down the stretch.
363 passing yards, 2,560 passing yards - QB Geno Smith, Seattle - Smith topped 360 yards for the second time in 2024, pushing his league-leading 2,560 yards. Smith already holds the franchise record with 4,282 passing yards. His current pace puts him at 4,836. He has moved into the Top 5 for Seahawks career passing yards this season, though his 11,201 trail well behind fourth place Jim Zorn's 20,122.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
Bellcows
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | RB1 | Bijan Robinson | 19 | 7 | 19-86-0 / 7-59-0 | 81.25% |
RB2 | Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 0 | 6-18-1 / 0 | 18.75% | |
Baltimore | RB1 | Derrick Henry | 23 | 1 | 23-106-2 / 1-27-0 | 75.00% |
RB2 | Justice Hill | 5 | 3 | 5-15-0 / 3-43-0 | 25.00% | |
Carolina | RB1 | Chuba Hubbard | 15 | 3 | 15-72-2 / 2-0-0 | 81.82% |
RB2 | Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 2-(5)-0 / 2-(5)-0 | 18.18% | |
Chicago | RB1 | D'Andre Swift | 16 | 6 | 16-51-0 / 6-31-0 | 90.00% |
RB2 | Roschon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 3-13-0 / 2-8-0 | 10.00% | |
Cleveland | RB1 | Nick Chubb | 15 | 1 | 15-39-0 / 1-(4)-0 | 69.57% |
RB2 | Jerome Ford | 2 | 3 | 2-5-0 / 1-2-0 | 21.74% | |
RB3 | Pierre Strong Jr. | 2 | 0 | 2-8-0 / 0 | 8.70% | |
Cincinnati | RB1 | Chase Brown | 27 | 5 | 27-120-0 / 5-37-1 | 100.00% |
RB2 | Zack Moss | DNP | ||||
Dallas | RB1 | Rico Dowdle | 12 | 6 | 12-75-0 / 5-32-1 | 90.00% |
RB2 | Dalvin Cook | 2 | 0 | 2-8-0 / 0 | 10.00% | |
Green Bay | RB1 | Josh Jacobs | 13 | 3 | 13-95-0 / 2-13-0 | 71.05% |
RB2 | Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 1 | 4-28-1 / 1-1-0 | 15.79% | |
RB3 | Chris Brooks | 2 | 4 | 2-13-0 / 3-28-0 | 13.16% | |
Houston | RB1 | Joe Mixon | 24 | 0 | 24-106-1 / 0 | 77.42% |
RB2 | Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 3 | 1-(1)-0 / 0 | 12.90% | |
RB3 | J.J. Taylor | 3 | 0 | 3-23-0 / 0 | 9.68% | |
Indianapolis | RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 5 | 13-48-0 / 3-11-0 | 81.82% |
RB2 | Trey Sermon | 2 | 2 | 2-4-0 / 1-9-0 | 18.18% | |
Kansas City | RB1 | Kareem Hunt | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Carson Steele | |||||
RB3 | Samaje Perine | |||||
LA Chargers | RB1 | J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 2 | 14-85-2 / 2-20-0 | 76.19% |
RB2 | Kimani Vidal | 5 | 0 | 5-7-0 / 0 | 23.81% | |
LA Rams | RB1 | Kyren Williams | 22 | 3 | 22-69-0 / 1-26-0 | 96.15% |
RB2 | Blake Corum | 1 | 0 | 1-(1)-0 / 0 | 3.85% | |
Minnesota | RB1 | Aaron Jones | 21 | 4 | 21-64-0 / 4-18-0 | 75.76% |
RB2 | Cam Akers | 6 | 2 | 6-46-0 / 2-7-0 | 24.24% | |
New England | RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 5 | 10-16-1 / 5-38-1 | 78.95% |
RB2 | Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 1-(1)-0 / 1-12-0 | 10.53% | |
RB3 | JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 1-0-0 / 1-(3)-0 | 10.53 | |
New Orleans | RB1 | Alvin Kamara | 29 | 9 | 29-155-0 / 6-60-0 | 70.37% |
RB2 | Jordan Mims | 5 | 1 | 5-13-0 / 1-25-0 | 11.11% | |
OW | Taysom Hill | 5 | 5 | 5-19-1 / 4-41-0 | 18.52% | |
NY Giants | RB1 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 16 | 1 | 16-66-0 / 1-3-0 | 70.83% |
RB2 | Devin Singletary | 7 | 0 | 7-33-0 / 0 | 29.17% | |
NY Jets | RB1 | Breece Hall | 15 | 4 | 15-74-0 / 2-11-0 | 79.17% |
RB2 | Braelon Allen | 4 | 1 | 4-9-0 / 0 | 20.83% | |
Philadelphia | RB1 | Saquon Barkley | 27 | 4 | 27-159-1 / 3-40-1 | 83.78% |
RB2 | Kenneth Gainwell | 5 | 1 | 5-9-0 / 1-1-0 | 16.22% | |
San Francisco | RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Jordan Mason | |||||
RB3 | Isaac Guerendo | |||||
Seattle | RB1 | Ken Walker III | 25 | 3 | 25-83-0 / 3-24-0 | 84.85% |
RB2 | Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 3 | 2-8-0 / 2-25-0 | 15.15% | |
Tennessee | RB1 | Tony Pollard | 28 | 3 | 28-128-0 / 3-26-0 | 86.11% |
RB2 | Julius Chestnut | 5 | 0 | 5-22-0 / 0 | 13.89% |
This column classified 12 backfields as "Bellcow" situations a year ago. We are now up to 22. The transition is significant and sweeping. Teams have realized that sticking with one back prevents them from tipping their hand on play selection, while quarterback runs and short schemed passes have evened out workshares. As a result, the field of playable fantasy options decreases, and fantasy teams without these backs sacrifice the ceiling.
Robinson played his highest snap share since Week 3. Allgeier vultured a touchdown that prevented a Top 5 week, but Robinson was still inside the Top 10 and has been a Top 4 fantasy back this season.
Hill played his lowest snap share of the season. It was a blowout, but with Keaton Mitchell nearing a potential return, it is an interesting development.
Hubbard ceded passing work to Sanders in Week 8, but the Panthers kept this tight, and he dominated touches. Jonathan Brooks is expected to make his season debut in Week 10, but outside of a trade in the next two days, there is little reason to think Hubbard will not remain very involved.
The Bears solved Swift's Johnson touchdown vulture problem by simply not scoring any touchdowns. I asked them to stop giving Johnson goal-line opportunities, and they listened.
Chubb has held a firm grip on the backfield rushes, but Ford out-snapped him in the trailing game script. Neither back was usable.
The Bengals will be interesting to watch. Brown was the only back who played with the game in question. He was excellent. This has the potential for a "genie out of the bottle" moment and subsequent relegation of Moss.
Dowdle was supposed to see a bigger workload entering Week 8 before his illness, which did not prevent him from hanging out with the team or meeting fans. We were healthy this week and treated to a Bellcow opportunity. The team made a reported mutual decision to leave Ezekiel Elliott out of the trip to Atlanta. His time in Dallas may be over.
Wilson grabbed a touchdown late with the game out of hand. He still split almost equally with Brooks, both well behind Jacobs. Jacobs remains on pace for one of his best yardage seasons.
Mixon was hot in the first half before cooling off. Since returning in Week 6, he has moved .3 points behind Derrick Henry as the overall RB1.
The Colts struggled to get consistent drives, but Taylor's role is solidified. In Taylor's lowest game of the season, nothing worked offensively for the Colts.
Dobbins read all the mean things I wrote about him last week and responded with his best game since Week 2. Vidal was given an opportunity early but did not run with it and has fallen off over the last couple of weeks. Gus Edwards is now eligible to return from IR. Expect Vidal to sit when that happens.
Williams broke a ten-game touchdown streak and posted his lowest rushing total since Week 2, but still flirted with 100 scrimmage yards. He is locked in.
After Jones received 100% of the work in Week 8, the backfield rotation shifted, with Akers replacing Ty Chandler. Chandler is now droppable in all but deep league formats. Akers looked fresh in mop-up duty.
Stevenson is locking into a Bellcow role on an offense that has life with Drake Maye. His yardage totals were poor, but he scored twice, including a crucial game-tying reception to push it to overtime. Stevenson has been the fantasy RB3 over the last two weeks.
Kamara's day was outlined in Stats of the Week. Kendre Miller was put on IR, and Jamaal Williams missed Week 9. Hill served as the de facto RB2 and grabbed a goal-line touchdown.
Tracy maintained his hold on the Giants' backfield but turned in a quieter performance than his Week 8 breakout. He is still a weekly fantasy starter.
The Jets shifted back to feeding Hall and involving Allen minimally, and they won. Take notes, Todd Downing.
Barkley drew the Jaguars' defense this week and did not miss. He has had more volatility than Henry, but he is RB1 in Week 9 and RB2 in the season overall.
There was a meaningful shift in the Seattle backfield in Week 9, with Walker coming in above 75% of snaps for the first time in 2024. Walker has been slightly disappointing since his huge performance in Week 4, standing at RB18 over his last five games.
Pollard carried injury questions throughout the week but exploded with his first 100-yard rush game. His 128 yards were the third most of his career, just three off his high 131. Pollard is on pace for over 1,300 yards as the Titans' primary offensive weapon.
Committee With A Lead
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | RB1 | James Conner | 18 | 3 | 18-107-0 / 3-12-0 | 58.33% |
RB2 | Emari Demercado | 4 | 2 | 4-59-1 / 2-21-0 | 16.67% | |
RB3 | Trey Benson | 8 | 1 | 8-37-1 / 1-18-0 | 25.00% | |
Buffalo | RB1 | James Cook | 10 | 6 | 10-44-0 / 5-25-0 | 64.00% |
RB2 | Ray Davis | 4 | 2 | 4-20-0 / 2-70-1 | 24.00% | |
RB3 | Ty Johnson | 3 | 0 | 3-23-0 / 0 | 12.00% | |
Denver | RB1 | Javonte Williams | 12 | 3 | 12-42-0 / 2-42-0 | 53.57% |
RB2 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 3 | 5-10-0 / 3-10-0 | 28.57% | |
RB3 | Audric Estime | 5 | 0 | 5-35-0 / 0 | 17.86% | |
Las Vegas | RB1 | Alexander Mattison | 9 | 0 | 9-36-0 / 0 | 40.91% |
RB2 | Zamir White | 6 | 0 | 6-10-1 / 0 | 27.27% | |
RB3 | Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 3 | 4-12-0 / 3-14-0 | 31.82% | |
Miami | RB1 | De'Von Achane | 12 | 8 | 12-63-1 / 8-58-1 | 58.06% |
RB2 | Raheem Mostert | 10 | 2 | 10-56-0 / 2-32-0 | 35.48% | |
RB3 | Jaylen Wright | 6 | 0 | 6-18-0 / 0 | 6.45% | |
Pittsburgh | RB1 | Najee Harris | Bye Week | |||
RB2 | Jaylen Warren | |||||
Washington | RB1 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 11 | 0 | 11-52-0 / 0 | 31.43% |
RB2 | Austin Ekeler | 11 | 4 | 11-42-1 / 3-41-0 | 42.86% | |
RB3 | Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 1 | 8-20-0 / 0 | 25.71% |
Arizona fell here this week, though much of it is due to Conner missing a bit of game action after a hard fall on a leap at the pylon and the blowout nature. Benson and Demercado both showed they have ample upside if given an opportunity.
Davis broke a 70-yard touchdown catch to make his day. The volume is not there to make him a fantasy starter, but he is getting work in an elite offense, which can pay off in one play.
A pregame report suggested Estime would be more heavily involved. He was not until the end of the game. Williams is frustrating. 30% of his production came in one game, a 24.6-point performance against New Orleans. He has hardly been an RB4, scoring less than Justice Hill, Tyler Allgeier, or Roschon Johnson outside of that game. The messaging around the Broncos suggests Williams will be in the free agent market following the year, where he will draw attention. He is worth acquiring in Dynasty leagues.
The theory play on Mattison felt right. He had dominated opportunities. The Raiders' backfield posted a combined 19 carries, 58 yards, one touchdown, three catches, and 14 receiving yards. But we expected it for Mattison, so of course, all three backs were involved again, with White flipping the early season script and vulturing a goal-line touchdown, a favor Mattison paid him in Weeks 2 and 3. The Raiders fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy following this game. The backfield is uncertain now.
The running back rotation looks as expected in Miami. Mostert is touchdown-dependent, but when the offense is running right, those are ample. Achane is emerging with his expected fantasy ceiling now that the offense is functional.
Brian Robinson Jr. was out, and the Commanders pulled out to a big lead, which shook up the rotation. Ekeler posted his best fantasy week of the season and left meat on the bone.
True Committees
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Stat Line | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit | RB1 | David Montgomery | 17 | 3 | 17-73-0 / 3-23-0 | 60.61% |
RB2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 2 | 11-65-1 / 1-11-0 | 39.39% | |
Jacksonville | RB1 | Tank Bigsby | 8 | 0 | 8-22-0 / 0 | 47.06% |
RB2 | Travis Etienne Jr. | 3 | 3 | 3-24-0 / 2-6-0 | 35.29% | |
RB3 | D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 1 | 2-6-0 / 0 | 17.65% | |
Tampa Bay | RB1 | Rachaad White | Monday Night | |||
RB2 | Bucky Irving | |||||
RB3 | Sean Tucker |
The Lions duo posted a floor game, with neither qualifying as an RB1 on a strong week for running back scores. Nothing changes moving forward, you are playing both weekly.
The Jaguars are the most frustrating offense in the league. Etienne feels wasted while Bigsby suggests at a workhorse ceiling in his opportunity. Johnson garnering what ended up as the game ending target on a wheel route interception downfield is the most baffling of all.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | 24 | Darnell Mooney | 9 | 5-88-1 | 37.50% |
Bijan Robinson | 7 | 7-59-0 | 29.17% | ||
Ray-Ray McCloud III | 3 | 3-28-1 | 12.50% | ||
Las Vegas | 32 | Jakobi Meyers | 11 | 8-105-0 | 34.38% |
Brock Bowers | 8 | 5-45-1 | 25.00% | ||
Tre Tucker | 6 | 2-5-0 | 18.75% | ||
NY Giants | 26 | Malik Nabers | 11 | 9-59-0 | 42.31% |
Theo Johnson | 6 | 3-51-1 | 23.08% | ||
Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 3-10-0 | 15.38% | ||
NY Jets | 32 | Davante Adams | 11 | 7-91-1 | 34.38% |
Garrett Wilson | 10 | 9-90-2 | 31.25% | ||
Breece Hall | 4 | 2-11-0 | 12.50% |
Drake London caught a touchdown early but landed awkwardly on his hip and was done for the game. The disappearance of Kyle Pitts is disappointing, too. The Cowboys had allowed touchdowns to starting tight ends three straight weeks and gave up 6-128-1 to George Kittle in Week 8. Targets were heavily consolidated to Mooney and Robinson, who delivered. Mooney has topped 80 receiving yards and scored in four of his last eight games, removing a Week 1 mess against Pittsburgh, and Mooney has posted an 85-1,218-10.6 17-game pace.
One of the bigger surprises is the Raiders benching Gardner Minshew II for Desmond Ridder. With either quarterback, the game plan still heavily features Meyers and Bowers. There is a talent gulf between these two and the rest of the offense; we are blessed the team has kept both relevant.
Nabers was blanked through the first half but still finished with a 9-59 line. Nabers' depth of target has plummeted over the last several weeks. Daniel Jones is the obvious culprit, but the loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas to a season-ending Lisfranc injury is a significant factor. By extension, if Nabers takes over the short work, the opportunities for Robinson will be eliminated. Robinson has averaged just 21 receiving yards over the last three weeks.
The Jets got the ball to their best players and won a big game. Weird. Allen Lazard hit IR this week, a move that will prevent Mike Williams from being traded. Adams, Wilson, and Hall should see this workload weekly. "Should" is the optimal word.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore | 19 | Zay Flowers | 6 | 5-127-2 | 31.58% |
Rashod Bateman | 4 | 3-25-0 | 21.05% | ||
Justice Hill | 3 | 3-43-0 | 15.79% | ||
Buffalo | 32 | Dalton Kincaid | 10 | 4-32-0 | 31.25% |
Khalil Shakir | 7 | 6-50-0 | 21.88% | ||
James Cook | 6 | 5-25-0 | 18.75% | ||
Chicago | 36 | Keenan Allen | 10 | 4-36-0 | 27.78% |
DJ Moore | 9 | 4-33-0 | 25.00% | ||
Rome Odunze | 7 | 5-104-0 | 19.44% | ||
Kansas City | Monday Night | Travis Kelce | |||
Xavier Worthy | |||||
DeAndre Hopkins | |||||
LA Rams | 42 | Cooper Kupp | 14 | 11-104-0 | 33.33% |
Demarcus Robinson | 9 | 6-94-2 | 21.43% | ||
Tyler Johnson | 5 | 3-38-0 | 11.90% | ||
Miami | 27 | De'Von Achane | 8 | 8-58-1 | 29.63% |
Jonnu Smith | 6 | 5-46-0 | 22.22% | ||
Tyreek Hill | 5 | 4-80-0 | 18.52% | ||
Pittsburgh | Bye | George Pickens | |||
Calvin Austin III | |||||
Darnell Washington | |||||
San Francisco | Bye | George Kittle | |||
Deebo Samuel Sr. | |||||
Ricky Pearsall | |||||
Seattle | 34 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 13 | 7-180-2 | 38.24% |
AJ Barner | 7 | 4-27-0 | 20.59% | ||
Tyler Lockett | 4 | 3-63-1 | 11.76% | ||
Washington | 19 | Noah Brown | 6 | 5-60-0 | 31.58% |
Austin Ekeler | 4 | 3-41-0 | 21.05% | ||
Terry McLaurin | 3 | 2-19-2 | 15.79% |
Last week, I said one big touchdown game would cause Flowers to explode on the radar. Well, here we are. This week, the Ravens "lowered" Flowers's value by acquiring Diontae Johnson. Do not buy that narrative; Flowers is a star.
Amari Cooper was inactive with a wrist injury, and Keon Coleman was grounded after an early red zone target popped off his shoulder pad for an interception. The result was consolidated targets between Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook. Of course, Ray Davis, Quintin Morris, and Mack Hollins caught Allen's three touchdowns. We all would be happier if those just went to Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook instead.
Allen and Moore combined for nearly three times as many targets as Odunze and 66% of the yards. The Bears tightened their rotations this week, playing the three wide receivers with tight end Cole Kmet at the highest rate of the season. Chicago's offense has stalled in back-to-back weeks, and the losses to Washington and Arizona have significant playoff ramifications.
Kupp is back. Puka Nacua was ejected early after swinging at a Seattle defender. Robinson may be the most interesting, scoring twice in each Week 8 and 9. Robinson seemed to have fallen out of the rotation when both Kupp and Nacua were out; now, he seems entrenched in a high-upside WR3 role again. The assumption is Tutu Atwell provided field stretching and the ability to win one-on-one better than Robinson. Given the defensive attention to Kupp and Nacua, Robinson is better at nuance and working off the other two receivers.
Jaylen Waddle scored late to save his day slightly but was not involved. A 27-yard loss on a lateral to end the game lost 2.7 crucial points. It is worth noting that while the offense uses Achane and Smith much more, they need to win games. We know Hill has been injured but do not know how badly. If the team wants to go down swinging, we have a couple of big Hill games looming. As it stands, this season will likely significantly impact Hill's Dynasty value.
Smith-Njigba deserves the headlines in the Stats of the Week category. Barner deserves a finer look. He dominated the tight end snaps with Noah Fant out, playing well, including a kamikaze hurdle attempt showing his type of effort. The Seahawks are over the 2025 projected cap, with the third least projected cap space. Fant's contract expires after 2025 but hits for $13.5 million. If the Seahawks needed to, they could cut or trade him and save $9 mil off their 2025 cap. Despite being a rookie, Barner has looked like an every-snap key player for the team's future.
The Commanders still ran five deep at receiver, with all five receiving significant snaps. Some of that could be due to the team's big first-half lead. Brown caught the Hail Mary at the end of Week 8, playing the most snaps of any receiver that week. In Week 9, he matched McLaurin in routes run and doubled him in targets. Brown is a player to watch over the second half of the season in the WR2 role, assuming the Commanders do not make a deadline move to add to the room.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 19 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 2-34-0 | 26.32% |
Trey McBride | 4 | 3-35-0 | 21.05% | ||
James Conner | 3 | 3-12-0 | 15.79% | ||
Carolina | 24 | Xavier Legette | 6 | 4-33-1 | 25.00% |
Ja'Tavion Sanders | 5 | 4-87-0 | 20.83% | ||
David Moore | 4 | 2-20-0 | 16.67% | ||
Cincinnati | 37 | Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 7-43-0 | 29.73% |
Mike Gesicki | 6 | 5-100-2 | 16.22% | ||
Chase Brown | 5 | 5-37-1 | 13.51% | ||
Dallas | 48 | CeeDee Lamb | 12 | 8-47-0 | 25.00% |
Jake Ferguson | 10 | 7-71-0 | 20.83% | ||
Jalen Tolbert | 6 | 3-19-1 | 12.50% | ||
Denver | 33 | Courtland Sutton | 10 | 7-122-0 | 30.30% |
Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 5 | 2-11-0 | 15.15% | ||
Troy Franklin | 4 | 1-19-0 | 12.12% | ||
Detroit | 20 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 7-56-1 | 35.00% |
Sam LaPorta | 3 | 2-28-0 | 15.00% | ||
David Montgomery | 3 | 3-23-0 | 15.00% | ||
Houston | 29 | Tank Dell | 9 | 6-126-0 | 31.03% |
Dalton Schultz | 6 | 3-21-0 | 20.69% | ||
Robert Woods | 3 | 2-44-0 | 10.34% | ||
Indianapolis | 27 | Josh Downs | 9 | 6-60-0 | 33.33% |
Jonathan Taylor | 5 | 3-11-0 | 18.52% | ||
Michael Pittman Jr. | 4 | 1-14-0 | 14.81% | ||
Jacksonville | 30 | Evan Engram | 10 | 5-45-0 | 33.33% |
Parker Washington | 6 | 3-41-0 | 20.00% | ||
Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 2-22-0 | 13.33% | ||
LA Chargers | 26 | Ladd McConkey | 7 | 5-64-0 | 26.92% |
Quentin Johnston | 5 | 4-118-1 | 19.23% | ||
Joshua Palmer | 4 | 2-63-1 | 15.38% | ||
Minnesota | 33 | Justin Jefferson | 9 | 7-137-0 | 27.27% |
Jordan Addison | 5 | 5-42-1 | 15.15% | ||
Josh Oliver | 5 | 5-58-1 | 15.15% | ||
New Orleans | 28 | Alvin Kamara | 9 | 6-60-0 | 32.14% |
Taysom Hill | 5 | 4-41-0 | 17.86% | ||
Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 2-34-0 | 10.71% | ||
Philadelphia | 23 | DeVonta Smith | 6 | 4-87-1 | 26.09% |
Grant Calcaterra | 5 | 5-30-0 | 21.74% | ||
A.J. Brown | 4 | 2-36-0 | 17.39% | ||
Tennessee | 27 | Calvin Ridley | 8 | 5-73-0 | 29.63% |
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 6 | 5-50-1 | 22.22% | ||
Chigoziem Okonkwo | 4 | 3-38-0 | 14.81% |
The Cardinals built a sizeable early lead against the Bears. When that happens, they are content to lean on the run to shorten the game. The script created a floor performance for McBride, Harrison (and Kyler Murray).
I love Jalen Coker and was on him early in the rookie cycle. But the team traded up in the first round for Legette and selected Sanders on Day 2. The offense will be focused around them. There is plenty of smoke around Adam Thielen trades, but teams will likely be skeptical about giving anything for a 34-year-old who has not played since Week 3. A release so Thielen can choose his spot is the most likely outcome. Watch Pittsburgh. Moving forward, expect the Panthers to push to find what they have in Legette, Sanders, and Coker, with David Moore as a glue guy with a long history in Seattle and Tampa Bay with Dave Canales.
The Bengals may play themselves back into a position to allow Tee Higgins's quad to heal enough to play again in 2024. Multiple developments in Week 9 show the team still needs him. First, rookie Erick All Jr. suffered an ACL tear in the same knee in October 2023, which ended his college career. Jermaine Burton was worked in as a critical piece of the offense throughout the week. Burton missed the Saturday walk-through. The team was not happy, and he was deactivated. Throughout the season, Burton has sat by Joe Burrow on the sideline. During Sunday's game, a clip that looked like Burrow told Burton he was no longer welcome emerged. Gesicki has big back-to-back games, but Drew Sample dominated traditional tight end snaps, with All leaving the lineup. Gesicki rotated with receivers Trenton Irwin and Kendric Pryor in a "big slot" role. Many moving pieces are here, but Gesicki has emerged as a must-play if Higgins is out.
Sunday was a devastating blow for the Cowboys. Dak Prescott left with a hamstring injury. Lamb picked up a shoulder injury of his own. He returned but fell hard again on the AC joint and will have an MRI, though Lamb said he expects to play in Week 10. Targets have been funneled to Lamb and Ferguson, but Lamb only has one 100-yard game, and Ferguson has yet to score. The other targets are too diluted for a consistent third option to emerge, with Tolbert pacing for a pedestrian 64-750-6 season. This offense has not looked good, and Prescott may be sidelined.
Sutton had a quiet start to 2024, with a 17-game pace of 58 receptions and 762 yards over the first five games. Over his last three, he has been a fantasy WR7, with 15.4 points per game. Targeting Sutton heavily with the other pieces as boom-or-bust contributors makes the most sense for this offense.
St. Brown has scored in six consecutive games. This is saving his fantasy season, as he is under 60 yards in five of his eight games. He was under 60 yards just three times in 2023. The Lions have shifted from a wide-open offense and a defense that allowed shootouts to a suffocating defensive unit and a power-run team. St. Brown's long-term outlook must be revisited, given the backfield depth and the roster's youth.
Dell is the one positive from Week 9 for Houston. He looked explosive and posted his best game of the season by a good margin, though he has posted usable fantasy weeks in three of his last four. Nico Collins is expected back in Week 10, and the team needs him. Hopefully, Collins and Dell will put C.J. Stroud back at his rookie pace.
Downs has nine targets in five of his last six games. Pittman Jr. has nine targets just once in his nine games. Pittman Jr. has topped 38 receiving yards just twice. Downs has been above 60 yards in five of seven.
The Jaguars add to the list of Week 9 questions. Following their run of injuries in Week 8, the team closed the game in 12 personnel with Brenton Strange and Engram, despite trailing the Packers. Of course, Doug Pederson hardly played Strange, a 2023 2nd-round pick who has played well, in favor of Austin Trammell, a 26-year-old receiver who doubled his career total with 40 yards Sunday. It is fair to question how many more decisions Doug Pederson will get.
The Chargers aired it out in the first half, building a 20-3 lead while Herbert passed for 250 of his 282 yards. This performance was the healthiest the Chargers have looked, and McConkey, Johnston, and Palmer all delivered fantasy-worthy games.
Oliver's involvement the week T.J. Hockenson returned off IR is baffling. Oliver set a career-high with five receptions and has scored in three of his last five. Still, those targets should be Hockenson's soon enough. Addison posted his second-best fantasy game of the season. That coming on a 5-42-1 line still shows this is Jefferson's offense.
Derek Carr returned and promptly knocked Chris Olave out with a scary injury. Olave was immobilized and taken to the hospital. His brother posted he was okay on social media before adding that these hits are not worth it playing for the Saints. There is enough smoke around Olave and this organization to question his future here. Kamara and perhaps Hill are the only weapons right now.
Brown added to the Week 9 wide receiver mash unit, leaving with a knee injury. Smith has stacked consistency, posting between 76 and 87 yards in five of his seven games. The lack of a third receiver emerging makes Calcaterra more interesting when Dallas Goedert returns. It would not be surprising to see the Eagles transition to a 12-person personnel base, though Calcaterra would be a touchdown-dependent play.
Westbrook-Ikhine has touchdowns in four straight games and has locked in the WR2 role. Ridley continued looking better. His 10-143 game in Week 8 was a high bar, but a baseline in the 5-73 ballpark is better than where we stood a month ago.
Offenses Under All Thresholds
Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland | 46 | Cedric Tillman | 11 | 6-75-1 | 23.91% |
Jerry Jeudy | 11 | 7-73-0 | 23.91% | ||
Elijah Moore | 9 | 3-28-0 | 19.57% | ||
David Njoku | 7 | 5-29-0 | 15.22% | ||
Green Bay | 37 | Christian Watson | 7 | 3-37-0 | 18.92% |
Tucker Kraft | 6 | 4-34-0 | 16.22% | ||
Jayden Reed | 6 | 5-113-0 | 16.22% | ||
Romeo Doubs | 5 | 4-28-0 | 13.51% | ||
New England | 39 | DeMario Douglas | 9 | 7-35-0 | 23.08% |
Hunter Henry | 8 | 7-56-0 | 20.51% | ||
Kendrick Bourne | 6 | 4-41-0 | 15.38% | ||
Tampa Bay | Monday Night | Cade Otton | |||
Bucky Irving | |||||
Jalen McMillan |
Tillman's continued strong play is the most significant takeaway for the Browns. When looking at his profile, it is worth noting that his injury-plagued final season at Tennessee cleared the runway for Jalin Hyatt's Biletnikoff Award season. In a different timeline, Tillman was more than capable of posting that season and may have landed with first-round draft capital. There is currently little reason to label this as a flash in the pan.
The weather was horrible for the Packers, and the Lions' defense kept the passing offense out of the end zone, but Jordan Love posted his highest passing total since Week 4. The offense is frustrating for fantasy rankers, but Reed is a weekly must-start for fantasy managers, Doubs and Watson are fringe starts in shallow leagues who fall into bye-week filler status, and Kraft is a low-end TE1. Deep leagues are starting all four and living with the valleys because of the potential ceiling. Dontayvion Wicks has had one game over 20 yards since Week 4 and has been a disappointment, getting blanked this week.
The Patriots receiver rotation was one of the latest reveals, given Bourne starting the season on IR and the quarterback situation. We know what we have now. Douglas is in the slot. Bourne and Kayshon Boutte are the outside receivers. Rookie Javon Baker played for the first time since Week 2, and Ja'Lynn Polk is still getting some reps, though Polk played a season-low coming off losing Week 8 to concussion. Drake Maye has averaged 68% completion, 242 passing yards, and two touchdowns in complete games, creating the potential for fantasy plays here.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Kyler Murray - 4.8 points
- RB: Nick Chubb - 4 points
- RB: Alexander Mattison - 3.6 points
- WR: Michael Pittman Jr. - 1.9 points
- WR: Puka Nacua - 1.6 points
- WR: Marvin Harrison Jr. - 2.4 points
- WR: Keon Coleman - 4.6 points
- TE: Kyle Pitts - 1.6 points
This week's lineup posted 24.5 points.
Players like Chubb, Pittman, and Harrison appear too frequently here. We strongly believe in their talent, and while the situation has rarely been beneficial, we remain hopeful for their potential.
Injuries earn an exemption, but suspensions do not. Nacua will have much, much better weeks.
I have an egg on my face. I liked what we have seen recently from Murray, Mattison, Coleman, and Pitts. I advised them on the Footballguys Sunday Morning Live show with Joey Wright and Jagger May. I was wrong. I'm sorry if my advice led to a negative fantasy result.
Players who beat it: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, Saquon Barkley, De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson. Alvin Kamara and Mike Gesicki tied the total.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 9
- TE Colby Parkinson, LA Rams vs. Seattle, Win 26-20, No stats
- WR Mack Hollins, Buffalo vs. Miami, Win 30-27, five receptions, 30 yards, one touchdown
- WR Justin Watson, Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay, Monday
- QB Andy Dalton, Carolina vs. New Orleans, Win 23-22, DNP
- QB Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets vs. Houston - Win 21-13, DNP
Week 10
- WR Odell Beckham Jr., Miami vs. LA Rams
- RB Samaje Perine, Kansas City vs Denver
- TE Josh Oliver, Minnesota vs. Jacksonville
- RB Hassan Haskins, LA Chargers vs. Tennessee
- QB Josh Johnson, Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
- FB Michael Burton, Denver vs. Kansas City
Prospects Of The Week
QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss, 6-2, 225 lbs
- 3,210 passing yards
- 21 touchdown passes
- 254 rushing yards
- 3 touchdowns
WR Tre Harris, Ole Miss, 6-3, 210 lbs
- 59 receptions
- 987 receiving yards
- 6 touchdowns
#2 Georgia vs. #19 Ole Miss, 3:30, ABC
This is a defacto playoff game. Ole Miss can not survive a loss to Georgia and expect to have a shot at the playoffs. Georgia may still have a shot, but the margin for error would be zero.
The Rebels entered the season with high expectations and a preseason Top 6 ranking. Dart started with significant draft buzz and ripped Furman for 418 passing yards and five touchdowns in Week 1.
Ole Miss's season has disappointed, particularly in a three-game stretch that included close losses to Kentucky and LSU. Dart averaged 277 passing yards and completed 58% of his passes in that stretch. His numbers outside of that window: 397 yards per game and a 79% completion.
He has turned the corner. He faces Georgia fresh off a 515-yard, six-touchdown game against Arkansas. The passing yardage is a school record, and his six touchdowns tied Eli Manning and Matt Corral for the most in school history. In school history, he is entering rare territory, passing Bo Wallace for second in passing yardage (9,548) and touchdowns (64). Manning's school record of 84 touchdowns is safe, but Dart can catch Manning's 10,119 pass-yardage record.
Harris has been Dart's top target, with 985 yards in 2023 and 987 in 2024—Harris is a traditional "X" receiver, capable of lining up outside and winning. The Rebels have worked him through formation, moving him into the slot where his size can give offenses problems. He has shown capability after the catch, especially for his size. Harris probably will not wow in athletic testing, and 23-year-old age at the time of the draft will turn some off. An injury kept him out of the lineup against Arkansas, but Ole Miss's season is on the line, and he will push to play.
Ole Miss needs Dart and Harris to perform well against the Bulldogs; otherwise, the season is over.
Blind Resume Answer
Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Touchowns |
---|---|---|---|
Alvin Kamara | 155 | 60 | 0 |
Derrick Henry | 106 | 27 | 2 |
Chase Brown | 120 | 37 | 1 |
Saquon Barkley | 159 | 40 | 2 |
Tony Pollard | 128 | 26 | 0 |
It is difficult to undersell how much of a disaster 2024 has been for fantasy players who adopted a "ZeroRB" draft approach. Issues
- Decreased production from high-end receiving options
- Injuries to multiple elite fantasy wide receivers
- Overall decline in passing yardage
- Leaguewide trend toward "Bellcow" backfields away from committees
- Running backs staying healthy
Just one of those can ruin a heavy ZeroRB draft approach. 2024 has featured all of them. To put a bow on running back production, consider we have rarely seen a year that resembles fantasy production at the top:
Running Back Points Per Game (.5 PPR)
YEAR | 20+ PPG | 15-19.9 PPG |
2024 | 3 | 9 |
2023 | 1 | 4 |
2022 | 0 | 7 |
2021 | 1 | 6 |
2020 | 3 | 5 |
2019 | 1 | 7 |
2018 | 5 | 4 |
Kamara finished 2023 as RB5 at 15 points per game. That number would make him RB13 in 2024. Mostert was RB3 in 2023 at 17 PPG, he would have been RB7 in 2024. 13 fantasy points would have been a mid-tier RB2 at 17th overall in 2023. It would fall outside the top 24 in 2024. Oh and Christian McCaffrey hopefully returns in Week 10.
Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football
WR Rakim Jarrett, Tampa Bay
We know the Buccaneers will not have Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Both Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan hold questionable designations.
Who is left?
Trey Palmer, a strong rookie contributor in 2023 with four games over 47 receiving yards, has struggled in his second season, topping out at 29 yards. Jarrett is the only other player who has taken snaps at wide receiver.
Jarrett is a fascinating story. The 247Composite WR4 overall in the 2020 recruiting class, Jarrett shocked the recruiting world in a signing day flip from LSU to stay home with Maryland. He turned down offers from Alabama and Ohio St. to make the choice. He never entirely put it together at Maryland, leaving for the NFL after 471 yards in his junior year and ultimately going undrafted.
Jarrett saw his first significant NFL involvement in Week 8, with three receptions for 58 yards. Jarrett is the type of former blue-chip recruit who can experience a late breakout at the NFL level. If he can build off his 58-yard performance against a difficult Chiefs defense, Jarrett can take a step towards answering a Buccaneers wide receiver depth chart full of questions.
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