The Monday NFL Roundup: Week 8

Viewing any one week of football action in an isolated window will cause anything to look weird. 

• Dorian Thompson-Robinson's 44 rushing yards leading all rushers in the Browns-Bengals game? Weird.
• Jonnu Smith seeing nearly twice as many targets as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined? Weird.
• Josh Allen as the only quarterback above 281 passing yards for the week? 

Well, that is standard for the weirdness 2024 has delivered. 

Social media often amplifies the weirdness, creating a hyper-focused lens and blurring the forest from the trees. We have become hard-wired to react and anticipate what is next instantly. The goldfish brain mentality that instant reaction culture instills creates an opportunity for an edge. 

Fading the crowd has long been a popular idea for gaining an edge in fantasy. If that crowd is increasingly reactionary, fading the noise can emerge as rational thinking.

The noise played heavily on ZeroRB in the draft season. Common sense fades would have realized the values of running backs. 

The noise reacted strongly to low scoring by "elite" tight end options to start the 2024 season. Over the last three weeks, Brock Bowers and George Kittle have emerged with point totals that would have made them both TE1 in all but the best Travis Kelce seasons. 

After Week 5, the noise panicked about Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson sitting at RB16 and RB21, respectively. The last two weeks? They are RB2 and RB3. 

Fade the noise.

Thank you, Nathan Jahnke. 

And now, The Roundup.

Blind Resume

Remember when every backfield was a committee? Yeah, about that…

Can you place this production?

Deep League Waiver Watch List

"Waivers of the Future," released after this column, provides in-depth coverage of waivers. Below is a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues. 

• QB Marcus Mariota, Washington (11% Sleeper rostered) 
• QB Mason Rudolph, Tennessee (31% Sleeper rostered) 
• QB Jameis Winston, Cleveland (39% Sleeper rostered) 
• QB Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas (57% Sleeper rostered) 
• QB Jake Haener, New Orleans (12% Sleeper rostered)
• RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans (83% Sleeper rostered) 
• WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco (94% Sleeper rostered) 
• WR Jacob Cowing, San Francisco (47% Sleeper rostered) 
• WR Jake Bobo, Seattle (18% Sleeper rostered) 
• WR Cedric Tillman, Cleveland (44% Sleeper rostered) 
• WR Troy Franklin, Denver (85% Sleeper rostered)
• WR Mason Tipton, New Orleans (23% Sleeper rostered) 
• WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.., New Orleans (6% Sleeper rostered)  
• TE Noah Gray, Kansas City (40% Sleeper rostered) 
• TE Lucas Krull, Denver (4% Sleeper rostered) 

Stats Of The Week

• 21.2 fantasy points - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit - St. Brown is the WR1 on the week with Monday's games still left. This would be the lowest WR1 score of any fantasy football week in the last ten years. Honestly, I don't know how to search further to find the last time a week's WR1 had a lower score. Nine running backs outscored St. Brown this week. 

• 24.9 fantasy points - QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh - Wilson is the overall fantasy QB1 for the week. There are at least instances of the overall QB1 on a week being this low: Dak Prescott was the 2023 Week 6 QB1 at 24.9 points, and Davis Mills was the 2022 Week 18 QB1 at 24.5. Entering Monday Night, Josh Allen is the only quarterback with a 300-yard passing day in the week. He is the only quarterback with over 280 pass yards in the week. 

• 176 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley posted the second-most rushing yards of his career against his former team. Two of his top six career games have come with the Eagles. 

• 658 rushing yards - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley's 658 yards are the eighth most through a back's first six games with a franchise. Derrick Henry sits at 704 yards through his first six games as a Raven, the second-most over a six-game period behind Eric Dickerson's 787 yards in his first six Rams games. 

• 47 receptions / 477 yards - TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas - A complete list of players with 45+ receptions and 475+ yards over the first seven games of their career: Puka Nacua and Bowers. Bowers became the 18th tight end to start a season with 45+ receptions and 475+ yards. Travis Kelce represents three of those 18 and Jason Witten two; no other tight end has done it multiple times. Bowers is on pace for 114 receptions and 1,158 yards. Zach Ertz holds the tight end single-season record with 116 receptions. 

• 10 receptions / 93 yards—TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas—Bowers recorded his fourth career game with eight receptions or more, tying Keith Jackson for the most by a rookie tight end. Bowers has played seven games. Sam LaPorta is the only other player to have three of those games as a rookie. 

• 27 receptions - TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas - Bowers became the 15th different tight end to accumulate 27+ receptions over a three-game span. Kelce was the only player to post a span like that in 2023, with a three-game span of 31 receptions. Before Kelce, the last tight end to do it was Mark Andrews, with 29 receptions over a three-game span late in 2021. Bowers' 17-game pace over the previous three weeks is 153 receptions and 1,479 yards. 

• 287 pass attempts, 0 interceptions - QB Josh Allen, Buffalo - Allen's last interception was against Miami early in the 2nd quarter of Week 18, 2023. He has gone the remainder of that game, two playoff games, and now seven regular season games in 2024, 287 pass attempts without throwing an interception. Aaron Rodgers holds the NFL record with 402 consecutive passes without throwing a pick. NFL fans may remember Jared Goff getting to a streak of 383 attempts early in 2023 before throwing an interception. Allen played his first game with Amari Cooper and posted his first 300-yard pass game of 2024. 

Backfield Hierarchy

Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.

As we hit the seven-week mark, we can now grasp a more complete understanding of the season. This means we can expect less fluctuation and, consequently, fewer need for explanations as we move forward. 

Context is critical in statistical analysis, especially in analyzing usage and trends. 

Take Seattle. Zach Charbonnet out-snapped Ken Walker III in Week 7 after Walker had been sitting around a 70-30 snap split for weeks. Did the coaching staff change how they viewed the backfield? Likely not. Instead, Walker came into the game with an illness, and the Seahawks built a considerable lead over the Falcons in a 34-14 win. Walker could rest; likely, nothing will change over a season-long outlook. 

Bellcows

• Cook returned after missing Week 6 due to injury. Davis's outstanding performance in Cook's absence earned him increased opportunity. View this backfield as a 2-1 split in favor of Cook with no situational usage; the team is comfortable with both backs handling three down roles. Unfortunately, Davis is a risky weekly start in this role. He saved his week with a touchdown. Cook still played the majority of reps with the game in question, and garbage time evened the overall snap share.

• Jacobs is the Bellcow. Week 3 and Matt LaFleur's history raised a false flag about Wilson's role. Jacobs is RB15 on the season but RB6 over the last three weeks, posting between 90 and 94 scrimmage yards each week. He is an excellent buy target. The Packers' Week 8 opponent? A Jacksonville team is returning from two weeks in England, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to running backs per game. 

• Mixon is back and firmly established as the Houston Bellcow. He has been RB1 over the last two weeks. Hopefully, you bought low on the injury. 

• Hunt is locked into the top role for the Chiefs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire "returned" and was a healthy scratch. He is no threat, as Steele and Perine contribute to special teams. 

• Mattison has distanced himself from other backs with the Raiders. He dominated snap counts and touches. Both White and Ameer Abdullah (no opportunities) were nothing more than cameo appearances. Mattison has been an under-the-radar player as the overall RB9 over the last two weeks, sitting in a high-volume role. 

• The acquisition of Cam Akers was not "wheels up" for Chandler. The Vikings are Jones's team, and his mentality is critical to their offense. 

• Miller is the Saints backup running back you want to roster. Williams has been phased out, and Miller was one of the few bright spots in a game full of garbage time. Interestingly, Kamara trade rumors started to bubble up as the Saints have lost five straight.

• Hall is still good at football. New offensive coordinator Todd Downing is giving him the ball. Good news, Jets fans: You do not have a committee!

• Shipley has shown minimal all season and did nothing with ample garbage time opportunities. He may still be held in deeper redraft formats. There is likely a more valuable pivot available at this point. 

• The most fascinating widely held narrative is Mason's doing enough to warrant a timeshare with Christian McCaffrey. Fascinatingly, many who believe this also believe Jonathon Brooks should relegate Hubbard to the bench. The optimistic projections have McCaffrey back in Week 10. The 49ers are 3-4 and have to win football games. McCaffrey is going to McCaffrey if he is McCaffrey. 

• Pollard has had one of the best opportunity shares all season. He is RB21 in points per game. This offense gives him a low ceiling, and the floor still needs to be fixed for fantasy starts. It is worth considering a pivot, especially for teams with solid records who can stomach some risk on a guy like McCaffrey. Sell Pollard's opportunity and Bellcow status to teams desperate for immediate production. 

Committee With A Lead

• Over the last month, Robinson has had injury designations for a shoulder and a hamstring. In Week 7, he held no designation. He dominated touches. Like he did early in the season before he had an injury designation; remember after Week 5 when I said to be patient and target players we know are good football players with slow starts? Robinson has been RB2 over the last two weeks. He recorded his first 100-yard rushing day since Week 4 in 2023.

• Chubb was back on an emotionally charged day in Cleveland. It has been a massive week between the trade of Amari Cooper, Chubb's return, and Deshaun Watson's season-ending injury. Hypothetically, the Browns can only go up. In reality, they go to Baltimore in Week 8. 

• Brown and Moss have separated. It could be due to Moss's ankle injury at the end of Week 5. The overall snap share has favored Brown the last two weeks after Moss held a 70-30 split early. They value Moss's blocking, but Brown is the guy they want to have the ball. 

• Williams had his best fantasy game since 2021. Estime lost a fumble when the Broncos were looking to ice the game, his second game fumbling in two weeks. This backfield is trending about 65-35 in favor of Williams over McLaughlin or Estime. 

• The Colts are hoping Jonathan Taylor can return in Week 8. Goodson and Sermon interestingly flipped roles, with Goodson handling the rushing volume and Sermon taking more of a passing down role. It may have had more to do with Sermon carrying an injury designation and the Colts hesitant to put too much on Goodson. Goodson looks to be the Taylor complement we want. 

• Gibson was involved but injured early and limited the rest of the game. Stevenson returned to the starting lineup, but the Patriots intentionally used two backs, with Hasty filling in for Gibson. The Patriots' usage has bounced around all year, so any play is an "in case of emergency" option.

• Has Tracy taken over the Giants' backfield, or was this just a "ramp-up" game by Singeltary? The Giants have a difficult Week 8 matchup against Pittsburgh on Monday night, making the situation uncomfortable.

• Harris looks better than he has over the last several seasons. He looks over the injuries he dealt with that sapped some athleticism and is running with bad intentions. Warren looks like he will be battling Cordarrelle Patterson when Patterson returns from injury. 

True Committees

• Detroit's split favoring Gibbs was due to Montgomery missing some time with injury. Officially dubbed "Sonic and Knuckles," both backs have weekly RB1 ceilings and are locked into lineups.
• Tampa's backfield is the most anticipated reveal of Week 8. Anything is in play. We could see a three-headed backfield that settles on the guy running hot in the second half. Or any of the three taking the lead on a more permanent basis. Ambiguity is our friend in August. Now? Only Tucker managers are hoping for chaos. 

The Target Report

I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share

• Bowers' statistical production was covered heavily in "Stats of the Week." A 40% target share for a rookie tight end is staggering. Touchdowns are the only thing holding him back from separating from the tight end pack. Playing for the Raiders prevents me from saying, "Those are coming."

• Atwell's 40.91% target share was the highest of the week. Just imagine Atwell and Johnson's names are "Cooper Kupp" and "Puka Nacua," which makes more sense. Jordan Whittington's zero was one of the biggest disappointments this week.
  
  

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share

• Atlanta continued to target its good players, and fantasy managers appreciated the scheme change. The Seahawks forced a few turnovers late to run away in Week 7. Atlanta gets Tampa Bay in Week 8, who they just threw for over 500 yards on in Week 5.

• Sanders has emerged over the last couple of weeks for a Panthers team desperate for talent. He dominated routes run at the tight end position. Tommy Tremble has been out, but at this point, Carolina should continue to see what the rookie can do. 

• Higgins has out-targeted Chase for four consecutive weeks. Since Higgins returned in Week 3, the targets have been 45 for Higgins and 37 for Chase. Chase remains the fantasy WR1 in PPG at 20.8 over this stretch. Higgins is WR13 in PPG over the same period.

• Jameis Winston has warts, but he gets the ball to his playmakers. With Cooper gone, Njoku has the upside back that made him the overall TE1 after Week 5 in 2023. Tillman is an exciting breakout candidate. Moore and Jerry Jeudy will draw targets, too, but Tillman is the type of big vertical receiver who fits Winston's game. 

• The Jaguars must have seen something with Gabe Davis in the Bears' Week 6 matchup. After his two-touchdown performance, he went back to just two targets. Thomas Jr. and Engram should be the top two options every week. In one-quarter of game time, the Jaguars went from trailing 10-0 to winning 25-10, causing a low-volume game script.

• The good? Worthy drew eight targets, with JuJu Smith-Schuster quickly scratched. The bad? A 3-19-0 line. Patrick Mahomes II has done the "Reverse Tom Brady" career progression after entering the league as an explosive option capable of posting 50+ touchdown passes in a season. The Chiefs brutalize opponents with a strong defense and run game with heavy sets featuring multiple tight ends. The Chiefs seemingly need Worthy to develop to complete their Super Bowl three-peat, but they are 6-0 and just blew out their Super Bowl LVII opponent with Mahomes throwing for less than 160 yards. 

• In Adams' reunion with Aaron Rodgers, the Jets split targets equally between their three top options. That should be the norm, though the difficulty of playing the Steelers' defense likely boosted Hall relative to the top two receivers.

• Pickens has a Top 12 fantasy WR1 ceiling with Russell Wilson after sitting at WR46 through the first six games. Pickens is one of the most significant value shifts from the week.

• The 49ers fear a season-ending injury from Brandon Aiyuk. Hypothetically, Pearsall should be the biggest beneficiary. However, Jauan Jennings' breakout performance from early this season is a significant consideration.  Expect Jennings to pick up Aiyuk's downfield targets after being a game-time inactive decision in Week 7.

• If Metcalf is forced to miss time, expect Jake Bobo and multiple tight end packages to pick up his absence. Targets should funnel to Smith-Njigba and Lockett, though Noah Fant has quietly been TE10 since Week 3. Fant should be added in all leagues.
  
  

Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share

• Doubs' Week 5 vacation has paid off. He recorded two touchdowns in Week 6 and followed it with the second-highest reception and yardage totals of his career, coming behind only a 9-95 game against Detroit in Week 4, 2023. Jayden Reed carried an injury designation into this game, allowing Wicks to step up.

• In any circumstance, there should never be a situation where Jonnu Smith leads the Dolphins with 7x more targets than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There should also never be a situation where Malik Washington equaled the combined total from Hill and Waddle. Operating with starting quarterbacks is difficult in the NFL, but Mike McDaniel's inability to scheme anything from Hill and Waddle is inexcusable. 

• This week's receiverless report: The Patriots. There needs to be a name for this.

Offenses Under All Thresholds

• Bucky Brooks's view on "building a basketball team" with your receiver room is one of my favorite team-building concepts. The Bills inserting Cooper showcases how this works. Cooper has been a top option for his entire career and is used to playing against that defensive coverage. He shifts how the defense plays everyone else. Coleman no longer faces top coverage, with defenses ignoring Mack Hollins opposite him. Now Coleman and Cooper provide credible threats downfield outside, opening the short and inside areas to Shakir and Kincaid. In basketball terms, the Bills just added a 20+ nightly scorer that allows everyone else on the field to focus on their role in a more manageable situation.

• Momentum is building for Bo Nix and his college teammate Franklin. Franklin scored a touchdown in Week 6 and led Denver in all receiving categories in Week 7. He is a player to watch over the second half of 2024.

• Anthony Richardson returned for the Colts. This is what their receiver group looks like with Richardson. Fantasy managers go from three playable options to zero playable options, depending on Joe Flacco or Richardson. It is like the reverse Dolphins, who the Colts beat.

• Chris Olave should be back in Week 8—hopefully, his targets spike.

The Landmine Lineup

We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!

• QB: C.J. Stroud - 5.3 points
• RB: Alvin Kamara - 5.4 points
• RB: Rhamondre Stevenson - 3.5 points
• WR: Courtland Sutton - 0 points
• WR: Deebo Samuel Sr. - 0 points
• WR: Tank Dell - 0 points
• WR: Jameson Williams - 0.1 points
• WR: DeVonta Smith - 0.3 points
• WR: Josh Downs - 0.8 points
• WR: Jaylen Waddle - 1.6 points
• WR: Tyreek Hill - 1.8 points
• WR: Jayden Reed - 2 points
• WR: Diontae Johnson - 2.2 points
• WR: Christian Kirk - 2.9 points
• TE:  Sam LaPorta - 3 points

I could have kept going, but 11 receivers hit the point. The 15 players in this lineup combined for 28.9 points. 

This lineup sums up 2024. It has been the worst-case scenario in an offseason that saw fantasy managers trend hard toward "ZeroRB" builds. Multiple high-profile receivers have experienced significant injuries. Meanwhile, others, like the Miami duo, have had their production chopped by situational factors.  

ZeroRB is a differentiation strategy. It is not "the optimal draft strategy." When the entire draft landscape skews toward it, managers can no longer build in edges around the roster. Meanwhile, the league has trended much heavier toward Bellcow backfields. Offensive coordinators do not want running backs to sub out and tip their hand in situations or to kill momentum and allow defenses a chance to match substitutes. They have schemed passing attacks to allow screens to serve as run plays, implemented Run-Pass Option (RPO) to involve quarterbacks in the run game, and moved away from an old-school "pound the ball" mentality to further preserve backs. By drafting ZeroRB and thus pushing running back value down the fantasy draft board, teams got players like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, who would have been locked into the first round in almost any other year in fantasy football history. 

Expect a sharp reaction next draft season. 

Players who beat it: Jahmyr Gibbs. It is worth noting the Lions had the fantasy RB1 and WR1 (Amon-Ra St. Brown) for the week. Fantasy managers got nothing from Montgomery, Williams, or LaPorta. 

If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!

Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)

Week 7

• RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia vs. NY Giants - Won 28-3, 176 rushing yards, one touchdown, two receptions, 11 receiving yards.
• TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota vs. Detroit - Lost 31-29, inactive (hoping for Week 8 return)
• WR Brandon Powell, Minnesota vs Detroit - Lost 31-29, two snaps, no targets.
• WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Denver vs. New Orleans - Won 33-10, two catches, 12 yards.
• TE Adam Trautman, Denver vs. New Orleans - Won 33-10, three targets, no receptions.
• WR Chris Conley, San Francisco vs. Kansas City - Lost 28-18, two targets, no receptions.

Week 8

• RB Cam Akers, Minnesota vs. LA Rams
• TE Johnny Mundt, Minnesota vs. LA Rams
• WR Brandon Powell, Minnesota vs. LA Rams
• TE Josiah Deguara, Jacksonville vs. Green Bay
• WR Kalif Raymond, Detroit vs. Tennessee
• WR John Ross, Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
• WR DeAndre Carter, Chicago vs. Washington

Prospects Of The Week

• QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU - 6-2, 200 lbs - 160/249, 1,989 
• WR Noah Thomas, Texas A&M - 6-6, 200 lbs

#14 Texas A&M  vs. #7 LSU, 7:30, ABC

Both teams started the season 0-1. Neither has lost since. The winner will be the only SEC team left undefeated in conference play. Both have a significant test left after this game, with A&M renewing their rivalry with #5 Texas and LSU still playing #15 Alabama. 

With divisions removed, the SEC race is wide open. The winner of this game is in pole position to grab an invitation to Atlanta.

Nussmeier is the latest addition to the LSU quarterback assembly line. His 2,222 yards rank sixth nationally, and he came up huge late against Ole Miss, throwing the game-tying touchdown with 27 seconds left to complete the comeback after the Rebels had built a 17-7 lead. Nussmeier's name should be familiar to NFL fans. His father, Doug, has been a quarterback coach for the Rams, Cowboys, and Chargers and is currently with the Eagles. Footballguys alum Daniel Harms wrote Nussmeier's draft profile for The Draft Network. 

Thomas is an under-the-radar prospect. He has scored in two of the last three games and posted 109 yards in a comeback win against Arkansas. Thomas's size catches the eye, and he uses it to solidify himself as a red zone and vertical threat. But he should not be viewed as just a jump ball player; he has flashed fluidity and athleticism in after-the-catch situations. Thomas's 289 yards and three touchdowns lead an Aggies passing attack that has had to play both Conner Weigman and redshirt freshman Marcel Reed. 

Blind Resume Answer

In 1998, 11 running backs topped 300 rush attempts. Five years later, in 2003, 13 backs exceeded 300 attempts. Between 2013 and 2023, 2022's three was the only year with more than two.2023 was rock bottom, without a single player hitting 300 carries.

In 2024, seven backs are on a 300+ carry pace, with Josh Jacobs barely under the line at 291. Some will not get there; Hunt is the current per-game pace leader with 63 attempts in his three games. Others, like Bigsby and Mattison, have emerged from crowded situations. Highly drafted fantasy backs have delivered across the board, and the ZeroRB candidates who have popped up were ignored in average draft positions. 

Running back is king. Again.

Footballguys' Content Spotlight

Fantasy football injury content is complex. Social media has multiple highly qualified individuals who do their best to identify injury mechanisms as they occur. Combining expertise with best guesses can only be volatile with an actual presence in team facilities. Social media can lead to extremes for the sake of traction.

Fortunately, we have a gem at Footballguys. 

Adam Hutchison provides weekly injury advice without swaying into the land of "clickbait." His Monday Injury Roundup brings readers up to speed coming out of the action. Adam bookends the week with a game-by-game deep dive into all meaningful situations in his Gameday Injury Expectations. Adam plugs in with listeners on the Sunday Live start/sit show, upgrading my presence opening presence with Joey Wright and Jagger May to close the show. 

We are lucky to have him.

Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football

RB Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay

Tucker is the most intriguing deep player of the week. The Buccaneers' backfield showcase lining up with Monday night is a stroke of NFL kismet. Questions about this backfield have dominated the fantasy landscape since Tucker's breakout Week 6 192 scrimmage yard performance. 

Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Tucker will all get a chance. 

White and Irving had split touches almost 50 / 50. The intentional even share suggests the Buccaneers had figured out that rotation. They can figure out a rotation of three. Irving was supposed to be the breakout Week 6 play with White inactive. Tucker's emergence muddles that situation. 

Ironically, Tucker's consideration could allow the Buccaneers to see the efficiency difference between Irving and White. An initial loser with added competition, Irving could have a better chance of emerging with the most significant role. White still has an opportunity to deliver on his high preseason ADP.

Tucker has a chance to be a league-winning breakout.  

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