The Monday NFL Roundup: Week 4

"You can be wrong. And right. And wrong again." - Sigmund Bloom

Therapy was a new journey for me. I had no idea what to expect, but I knew I was ready to approach openly. Like many in the Footballguys audience, the closest I had gotten were "On The Couch" sessions with Bloom. 

It may surprise many, but attempting to predict NFL player performance to win money for strangers is a stressful endeavor. People care about football (and they care about money), but they care a lot more about winning their fantasy football leagues.

From therapy, I learned that it is all about developing a toolbox for dealing with situations. I have a full-time career outside of fantasy football and three young children. I learned I needed to embrace the chaos and drop the expectation of "a quiet week."

We must drop the expectation of a quiet week in the NFL and embrace the chaos. If you're interested in finding strategies for coping with chaos, please continue to the end of this article. 

As always, thank you, Nathan Jahnke. Check out Nathan's weekly usage article on PFF.com!

And now, The Roundup.

Blind Resume

The Man wants you to believe in Big Cover 2. But multiple fantasy-relevant quarterbacks bounced back with big passing totals in Week 3. Can you place this production?

Deep Dynasty Watch List

Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper Dynasty leagues (give or take).

• RB Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay (61% Sleeper rostered) - If you consume my content, first, thank you; second, you know I've been touting Wilson for over a month. He looked explosive against the Titans with 85 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Yesterday's price is not today's price. MarShawn Lloyd was placed on IR this week and is out at least three more games, but the tea leaves suggest the team already had Wilson ahead of him. Wilson can lock up this backup job and make Lloyd an afterthought. Expect Wilson to lead many waiver columns this week, though you grabbed him weeks ago, right?

• RB Roschon Johnson, Chicago (76% Sleeper rostered) - Johnson's most significant contribution in the Week 2 loss was taking a sideline punch from the Texans' Azeez Al-Shaair. He was more involved in Week 3. After three disastrous games, the Bears seem willing to transition work away from D'Andre Swift. Johnson, not Khalil Herbert, was the beneficiary. The backfield is unsettled, and while the early returns have been disappointing, there is enough talent overall on the team that one back can emerge as a weekly fantasy starter. Johnson is an under-the-radar grab. 

• QB Taylor Heinicke, LA Chargers (10% Sleeper rostered) - Every time Justin Herbert steps on the field for 2024, he will pick up a new injury. That's just science. Herbert was a game-time decision who played, but he left the game and, ultimately, the stadium with a walking boot. Herbert is hardly fantasy-relevant himself in this offensive scheme, and the playbook for Heinicke would likely be ultra-conservative. Still, in deep Superflex formats, every starting quarterback can potentially return value. 

• WR Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh (31% Sleeper rostered) - Arthur Smith finally gave the second-most wide receiver targets to the fastest guy on the team instead of the guy whose dad he knows or who has played for him before. Austin III popped with four catches for 95 yards and a 55-yard touchdown that iced the game. If the Steelers lean into Austin and work Roman Wilson back into the team off of injury, there are multiple exciting young pieces here. This is a logical conclusion, so Van Jefferson and Scotty Miller will get the second most snaps in Week 4 to keep defenses on their toes. 

• RB Tyler Badie, Denver (2% Sleeper rostered)—2022 prospecting me is smiling at this one. Badie posted a 1,604 rush yard and 330 receiving yard season in his final year at Missouri before getting drafted in Round 6 by Baltimore in the 2022 draft. He was cut in the preseason and picked up by Denver, spending time on the practice squad to start his career. Badie led the Broncos in rushing attempts and yards in Week 3, but with a massive caveat that most of that production came very late in the game. He is just a speculative add, but Sean Payton has proven himself the coach willing to shake up rotations. Neither Javonte Williams nor Jaleel McLaughlin have run with their opportunity. 

• WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Denver (2% Sleeper rostered) - Humphrey played little in Week 1 and did nothing with his one target. His usage could be entirely dependent on the absence of Devaughn Vele, but over the last two weeks, he's averaged 6.5 targets, five receptions, and 43.5 yards in a watered-down version of Michael Thomas's "Slant Boi" role for Sean Payton's offense. Humphrey equaled Courtland Sutton's snaps and ran one more route than Sutton to lead all Denver wide receivers. This target tree is still developing. Humphrey needs to be monitored.

• TE Brock Wright, Detroit (3% Sleeper rostered) - Sam LaPorta has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy and sprained his ankle against the Cardinals. The injury allowed Wright to outsnap and out-produce LaPorta. Managers may ask themselves, "If I'm annoyed with LaPorta, why should I be interested in Wright?" The acquisition price is everything. We are annoyed with LaPorta at a TE1 ADP. If Wright, the only other tight end to play meaningful snaps, is heavily involved and can get five targets on one of the best offenses in football, he enters the weekly tight end conversation with LaPorta out. LaPorta was able to continue playing through the game, but we often see scenarios where a player can continue going, and the swelling hits after the game.

• TE Elijah Higgins, Arizona (9% Sleeper rostered) - Trey McBride left with a concussion on one of the day's biggest hits. Higgins is a must-roster if McBride is out. The team likes him, and he has flashed playmaking ability as a converted receiver. This situation could mirror Isaiah Likely's strong finish to 2023 with Mark Andrews out of the lineup. 

• RB Dalvin Cook, Dallas (55% Sleeper rostered) - Look. I'm just saying. 

• QB Nick Mullens, Minnesota (11% Sleeper rostered) - Sam Darnold had a knee issue late in the game. Darnold says he will be fine. 2024 is the year of Sam Darnold. Mullens has played passable football for Kevin O'Connell before. 

• QB Tyler Huntley, Miami (31% Sleeper rostered) - Thompson left the game with a vague rib injury. Which sounds more like the product of taking multiple hits and a game the team knows is over. At 1-2 with a loss to the Bills already, the Dolphins cannot afford to let this season slip away early. Huntley has a Pro Bowl appearance on his resume. This switch could be coming.

Stats Of The Week

• 319 passing yards, three touchdowns - QB Andy Dalton, Carolina - Dalton coming off the bench in Week 3 to become the first quarterback to top 300 yards, and three touchdowns is the most 2024 stat possible. Out of nowhere, the NFC South feels like the wide-open division we expected. On tap for Week 4? It's an ultimate revenge game against the Bengals. Because the thing that makes the most sense in 2024 is nothing making sense. 

• 11 Receptions, 175 yards, three touchdowns - WR Jauan Jennings, San Francisco - Just like we all predicted, Jennings is the best receiver in fantasy football. He became the 19th player in NFL history to post an 11-175-3 day. After all the drama about the Brandon Aiyuk contract situation, Jennings quietly signing a two-year contract for $10.5 million guaranteed looks like a steal. The 49ers are paying Jennings roughly half of what Gabe Davis signed for in Jacksonville. He has performed when called upon, and nothing about his production looks fluky when the opportunity presents itself. 

• Two interceptions, four sacks - QB C.J. Stroud, Houston - Stroud's 68 passer rating was the second-worst game of his career, throwing two interceptions and taking four sacks for the first time. Brian Flores's Minnesota defense has reached "sit up and take notice" status. The Vikings lead the NFL in sacks at 15, and their five interceptions sit tied with a group behind the league-leading Packers' seven. The team is off to a surprising 3-0 start in an NFC North, one of the league's most competitive. After back-to-back performances against the 49ers and Texans, this is a fantasy defense to avoid. They make a great stash if they get dropped in your league with the bye-week approach.  

• 147 rushing yards, two touchdowns, four receptions, and nine yards - RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - Barkley posted the fifth most rushing yards of his career and his most since November of 2022. He also added his sixth career two-rushing touchdown game. Two of those have come in just three weeks. So much for the Tush Push neutralizing his scoring opportunities. The Eagles have 53 games where a back has topped 100 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns; two are Barkley, who now has four in his career.

• 202 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 73 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown - QB Malik Willis, Green Bay - Willis became the third Packers quarterback to rush for 70+ yards and throw for 200+, joining Don Majkowski (1990) and Tobin Rote (four times between 1951 and 1955). Adding the passing and rushing touchdown pushes it into rare air typically reserved for fantasy elites like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. There are 60 games in NFL history, with 33 different quarterbacks hitting the mark. Cam Newton has the most, with six career 200-1-70-1 games, with Allen and Russell Wilson holding five each. 

• 363 passing yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions - QB Caleb Williams, Chicago - Williams posted the highest yardage total by a Bears quarterback since Brian Hoyer in 2016. He broke Mitchell Trubisky's team record of 314 yards for a rookie.

• Six receptions, 112 yards, one touchdown - WR Rome Odunze, Chicago - Odunze marked his first significant arrival in the fantasy football space with the 99th 6-112-1 game in Bears history. D.J. Moore recorded three in 2023, but the last Bears rookie to hit these marks was Marty Booker in 1999. Booker was the only Bears rookie since 1981 to post that stat line. 

• 18 receptions, 205 yards, three touchdowns—WR Malik Nabers, NY Giants—Nabers became the second Giants receiver since 1970 to record an 18-205-3 line over two weeks. Odell Beckham Jr.'s rookie season in 2014 was the other. Beckham hit those numbers in overlapping weeks, posting a 43-606-7 line over a four-game stretch from Week 13 to 17. 

• Ten receptions, 170 yards - TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia - Goedert became the 12th tight end to post 10+ receptions and 170+ yards in a game. Travis Kelce has had two career games that hit those marks, with Shannon Sharpe being the only other player to do it twice. The Eagles have 18 double-digit catch games for tight ends, with Pete Retzlaff's 204 yards in 1965 the only game over Goedert's 170.