Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 1 was weird. Every NFL week is strange in a vacuum, but Week 1's singularity and newness make it stand out. 

Still, Week 1 was weird. 

Teams averaged 186 passing yards per game, down from 220 in 2023. And we cannot even blame it all on Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, though Justin Herbert's 144 yards were the third lowest of his career and a realization of the worst fever dreams of Ladd McConkey dynasty rookie drafters. 

Defenses are traditionally ahead of offenses early in the season. But if you had the pleasure of mainlining 7 hours of commercial-free football direct from Scott Hanson, you know this felt different. Rushing was up marginally, about nine yards per game, and the kickoff position was better, with the new “dynamic kickoff” moving the starting position up about five yards.

So what is going on?

My cohost Matt Waldman and I discussed the impact of "2 High" safety coverage throughout the 2023 season. Matt has especially espoused the return of power run game schemes. That may be some of the change.

We are in a transitional period. Football is a constant push/pull sport. Offenses exploded in the early 2000s, led by the Rams' “Greatest Show On Turf.” Spread concepts migrated throughout the sport, permeating college and high school offenses especially, with the NFL figuring out which elements to apply. Explosives and splash plays became what every offense hunted. Almost every team transitioned to base three wide receiver sets.

Defenses were flat-footed.

Longtime NFL fans remember big-run specialist players like Gilbert Brown, Jerry Ball, and Ted Washington, thumper linebackers like Levon Kirkland or Brandon Spikes, and run-supporting box safeties like Steve Atwater. All became extinct. 

Defenders had to play in space. Retraining life-long skills is very difficult. Eventually, players who had spent their lives playing against these spread schemes came of age. Linebackers who had operated in space against thousands of pass reps came of age. Specialized hybrid defensive backs with safety, corner, and linebacker skills replaced nickel cornerbacks, who traditionally ended up at nickel simply because they could not cover outside. Defensive lines trimmed down and became pass-rushing specialists. 

It is not just defenses placing two safeties deep and choking off the vertical passing game that plays a part. It is also the development of players comfortable in space underneath and pass rushes capable of eliminating time to let plays develop downfield. All play a part.

So what is next?

Some teams are in trouble. The Giants and Panthers look radioactive to any fantasy relevance. The Broncos cannot push the ball downfield at all. The Commanders have a lot of work to do with Jayden Daniels in the passing game. Deshaun Watson looks like he would rather be anywhere else. The Jaguars cannot protect Trevor Lawrence. The Bengals need to figure out you have to pay your best players. The Titans are going to have some serious Will Levis growing pains. The Patriots have gone from a Tom Brady - Bill Belichick team capable of winning in any style to one that requires a specific game script. The Falcons must figure out how to play with an immobile quarterback, or Kirk Cousins must recover fast. 

Even though they lost, the Ravens may be the most exciting team in counterbalancing current trends. Previous versions were hyper-focused on power running, with Lamar Jackson's ability to break plays, make defenses pay for losing contain outside, and extend to open receivers deep. Derrick Henry's arrival dominated the offseason storylines, but Week 1 was about the emergence of Isaiah Likely. Likely is the tweener player who would have struggled in previous generations. Not big enough to handle traditional tight-end duties against bigger defenders not quick enough to win outside. Now, he is the type offenses are hunting, with the size to give defensive backs problems and the skill to stress linebackers in coverage downfield. The Ravens focused heavily on the quick passing game, allowing Zay Flowers and Justice Hill the opportunity to create after the catch. Those types of plays have come to stand in for run attempts that used to serve to soften a defense. As the defense starts to work up anticipating those plays, a player with the skillset of Likely can occupy the vertical space. 

And yes, they lost. The Chiefs are a very, very good football team. 

The NFL is a punch-and-counter-punch league. Offenses will reset and bounce back—well, every offense except the Giants and Panthers. The only silver lining is that they have only 16 games left.

I want to recognize the work done by Nathan Jahnke at PFF. He posts snap information quicker than anyone in the industry; without his work, much of the context for this article would not be possible. Please check it out!

And now, The Roundup.

Blind Resume

Home run receivers hit home runs in Week 1. Can you place this production?

Deep Dynasty Watch List

Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper Dynasty leagues (give or take).

• QB Malik Willis, Green Bay (17% Sleeper rostered) - Fortunately, Jordan Love avoided long-term injury at the end of Friday night's NFL on Ice in Brazil. Willis gets his last best opportunity in his absence. Unless…

• QB Ryan Tannehill, Unemployed (19% Sleeper rostered)—Rumors came quickly on Saturday that the Packers were in contact with Tannehill. Tannehill and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur missed each other by a year in Tennessee, with LaFleur serving as Titans OC in 2018 and Tannehill arriving in 2019. Honestly, I looked through the Packers coaching staff for a tie to Tannehill because that makes the easy narrative connection, but there are no direct ties. The Packers' passing game coordinator is even Jason Vrable, spelled differently than Tannehill's former Titans coach Mike Vrabel. Still, in the short term, Tannehill likely comforts the staff more than Willis, who arrived late in camp. 

• WR Tyler Johnson, LA Rams (0% Sleeper rostered) / WR Jordan Whittington (71% rostered) - Puka Nacua's preseason knee injury came back quickly in Week 1. He tried to return before being carted off. Nacua is a warrior who will try to play through anything, but the team should be cautious. Dynasty brain will say Whittington, and he will surely lead some waiver columns, but Johnson routinely repped above him when Nacua was out in the preseason. Sean McVay wants to set base personnel and prevent defenses from matching substitutions. Johnson is the more relevant pickup at present. 

• RB Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami (17% Sleeper rostered) / RB Jaylen Wright (96% rostered) - Raheem Mostert earned more leash in 2023 than just one poor game. At 32 years old, Father Time is undefeated. Wilson was active over Wright due to special teams, but he was also the only back to have much success on the ground. Mike McDaniel is a mad scientist and will tinker. This offense has shown you want pieces, especially in the backfield. 

• TE Luke Schoonmaker, Dallas (32% Sleeper rostered) / TE Brevyn Spann-Ford (1% Sleeper rostered) - We are holding our breath on injury clarification from Jake Ferguson. The latest speculation is he may have avoided a season-ending injury. In a perfect world, this would be 2023 2nd round pick Schoonmaker's opportunity to showcase his ability and build depth for the team. It was a blowout, but Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford split snaps equally without drawing a target. Schoonmaker is likely rostered already in deep leagues, given his draft capital, but Spann-Ford can make this a competition. 

• TE Jordan Akins, Cleveland (2% Sleeper rostered) - Early indications show David Njoku with the dreaded high ankle sprain. Akins is the only other tight end who made the final roster. Akins has a history with Deshaun Watson and posted a couple of 400-yard seasons in Houston. He could dominate snaps if Njoku misses time. The ceiling is low, but in deep leagues, a tight end playing near 100% of the snaps is a touchdown-dependent play at worst. 

• WR Devaughn Vele, Denver (52% Sleeper rostered) - Vele is behind Josh Reynolds as the compliment to Courtland Sutton, but both players saw eight targets. Vele is positioned well to grow during his rookie season, and Sean Payton has found success with big-bodied wide receivers. Vele converted on all 8 of his targets, becoming the 11th Denver rookie to catch at least eight balls, with Royce Freeman the last to do it in 2018. Eddie Royal, in 2008, was the only other player to do it in his debut. 

• RB / WR Velus Jones Jr, Chicago (9% Sleeper rostered) - The Bears defense and special teams were the engine in their comeback win against the Titans. The offense has a lot of work to do. Jones was a pet project through the offseason, earning showcase time on Hard Knocks. The lack of success is the type of thing that will keep the team hunting for answers. Jones' speed and explosiveness are undeniable, and the team is trying to find a way to implement him offensively. He is a handcuff at best, but if D'Andre Swift misses time, he can be a rare wide receiver-eligible player who sees regular rushing work. 

• WR Ray-Ray McCloud III, Atlanta (31% Sleeper rostered) - The Falcons are one of the more disappointing teams from Week 1. Kirk Cousin's mobility is a problem. McCloud could be the biggest beneficiary as the wide receiver is best suited to operate in the quick game and screen usage. He has consistently been a strong performer since arriving and made a play down the field while leading the team with six targets. McCloud has a chance to emerge as a consistent PPR performer in an offense searching for footing. 

Stats Of The Week

• WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City - 21 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 47 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown. Worthy became the 8th rookie to rush for a touchdown and catch a touchdown pass in his NFL debut. In total, 188 rookies have accomplished this double in a game. Worthy is especially noteworthy with just three touches. But the Cowboys' Bob Hayes accomplished the double on just two touches in 1965. 

• WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay - 33 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, four receptions, 138 yards, one touchdown. Reed and Marcus Allen are the only players in NFL history to rush for at least 30 yards, score a rushing and receiving touchdown, and top 130 receiving yards on four catches or less. 

• RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - 109 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two receptions, 23 yards, one touchdown. 24 NFL players have posted two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown in Week 1 in NFL history. Ten of those players topped 100 rushing yards in the game. No player had done that since 2004. (Interestingly, in 2004, three players did it: Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green, and Quentin Griffin). It turns out that Barkley is still good, and the Eagles have added a new dynamic element.

• RB Joe Mixon, Houston - 30 attempts, 159 rushing yards. Mixon tied his career high with attempts; his yards were his third most. Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor were the only two backs to hit 30 rush attempts and 150 yards in 2023. This game was the first time a Texan hit those numbers since Arian Foster in 2011. 

• WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams - 21 targets, 14 receptions, 110 yards, one touchdown. Kupp became the 26th player in NFL history to see 21+ targets in a game. Roddy White in 2010 was the only other player to do it in Week 1. Stories from Rams camp indicated that Kupp was motivated and that “2021 Kupp” was back. They were right. Kupp's depressed ADP is quickly emerging as one of the best values in fantasy drafts. (Stathead.com's target data only goes back to the early 1990s, but going out on a limb and saying offenses before that were not volume-targeting players.) 

• Kick Return percentage: 22%—A historic low kick return rate in 2023 led to implementing the “Dynamic Kickoff.” Unsurprisingly, teams experimented in the preseason, with 70% of kicks returned. So far, the rate in the regular season is much lower, in the mid-30 %, but an increase from 2023 and leading to exciting plays like Arizona's DeeJay Dallas's 96-yard touchdown against the Bills. The play has added intrigue. Mission accomplished.

Backfield Hierarchy

Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.

BELLCOWS

• Arizona (James Conner - 20 touches / Emari Demercado - two touches / Trey Benson - four touches)

• Atlanta (Bijan Robinson - 23 touches / Tyler Allgeier - three touches)

• Buffalo (James Cook - 22 touches / Ray Davis - four touches / Ty Johnson - three touches)

• Cleveland (Jerome Ford - 19 touches / Pierre Strong Jr. - 5 touches / D'Onta Foreman - 0 touches)

• Green Bay (Josh Jacobs - 19 touches / Emanuel Wilson - seven touches)

• Houston (Joe Mixon - 33 touches / Dameon Pierce - three touches / Dare Ogunbowale - one touch)

• Indianapolis (Jonathan Taylor - 16 touches)

• Kansas City (Isiah Pacheco - 18 touches / Samaje Perine - two touches / Carson Steele - two touches)

• LA Rams (Kyren Williams - 21 touches / Ronnie Rivers - 2 touches)

• New England (Rhamondre Stevenson - 28 touches / Antonio Gibson - seven touches)

• NY Giants (Devin Singletary - 15 touches / Tyrone Tracy Jr. - 5 touches / Eric Gray - 3 touches)

• New Orleans (Alvin Kamara - 20 touches / Jamaal Williams - 12 touches / Jordan Mims - 4 touches)

• Philadelphia (Saquon Barkley - 26 touches / Kenneth Gainwell - two touches / Will Shipley - no touches) 

Conner had his third-most receiving yards since the 2021 season with 33 and is on pace for 323 touches, which would have been good for fourth in 2023…Robinson saw a perceived value dip with rumors that Allgeier would split the backfield. Robinson dominated snaps and touches and has overall RB1 in his range with this usage… Cook looked more like a bellow than at any point in a breakout 2023. The coaching staff is usually cautious with rookies, and Davis's involvement will likely increase… The Browns may be the most surprising Bellcow, featuring Ford heavily. It is encouraging in the short term, with an eye on Nick Chubb's timeline. Better days ahead for Cleveland… Jacobs took a while to get his feet under him but was ripping chunk yardage in the second half. Marshawn Lloyd will be back soon, but Jacobs dominated the opportunity.

Mixon picked up where Devin Singletary stood in this offense in 2023 with 30 attempts, tying a career-high. This type of usage in a high-end offense gives Mixon a Top 5 range of outcomes… Taylor was the only back to see touches in Indianapolis, with Anthony Richardson as his compliment. There was no role for Taylor in the passing game, limiting his ceiling and making him a touchdown-dependent player… Pacheco was another player who faced rumors of split backfield usage. It might have been the short lead-up for Perine or a leading game script, but Pacheco owned the backfield in Game 1… We all had the Rams continue using Williams as a bellcow, right? The Lions' run defense is notable and should be an avoid for iffy backs, but this type of usage puts Williams in play to replicate his surprise RB2 per game season from 2023… The Patriots leaned hard on Stevenson in their upset win over Cincinnati. This game script is exactly what New England hopes to accomplish, and Stevenson is the centerpiece.

Rock meet hard place. Singletary owns the backfield in New York, but this offense struggled severely and has a low ceiling… The Saints ran out a massive lead with their backfield depth pieces. Everything was clicking, but in a closer game, Kamara's ceiling was even higher… Barkley showed how innovative teams adapt to their personnel. Swift had one 24 carry / 2 target game for the Eagles in 2023, and Sanders had one in 2022 and one in 2021. Barkley did it in his debut.