Michael Penix Jr.: A Worthwhile Gamble This Week?

Penix could serve as a valuable flex or desperation starter during the next two weeks. As I tried to tell my friend Alex last week, Caleb Williams was the better start and most of you shouldn't roll with Penix as a championship gamble. 

Still, if you're going to gamble, Penix has the skills, the surrounding talent, and the generous defense to force the Falcons to throw the ball. Last week, I shared what to expect from Penix and his surrounding talent. This week, let's analyze what we saw, modify the expectations for the final two weeks of 2024, and how to value Penix for dynasty and re-draft leagues moving forward. 

The Film

When it comes to a quarterback's development potential, 8-12 games rarely tell you the entire story about a passer, much less 1. So what's the use of this analysis? 

We can see where a quarterback and his teammates look comfortable, where they don't, and what the coaches are trying to emphasize or hide with a rookie passer's game. This information can help us determine if there's immediate value. 

***Author's Note***

You may see "Michael Penix Jr., Jr." on the video posts because Footballguys player tagging system inserts a link to our player pages when a writer mentions a player. Because I feared erasing the original "Jr." from the post would interfere with the video populating on the page, you may see two Juniors after Penix's name.  When previewing the article, it appears the second Junior doesn't show up, but I'm adding this in case it's different when we publish the article. 

How Atlanta Began Was Telling

Atlanta's first pass call against the Giants only involved two receivers off a play-action boot concept.

First throw for Michael Penix Jr., Jr.

- 12 personnel.
- Boot vs. C3 w/2 routes.
- Considers deep post
- Comes back to left side
- Perfect throw while hit.
- Ray-Ray McCloud III drop.

Looked like his Indiana tape, ;) #Falcons pic.twitter.com/ruETMHw6fq

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

When most people see that only two receivers released into routes and associate the play call with a rookie in his first start, the obvious conclusion is that Atlanta didn't trust Penix as a decision-maker, and they were being conservative. 

If this was the case for more than one play, I'd agree. However, this was the only play of this type in the game. Atlanta gave Penix two clear reads to get him started, and both were downfield reads as well. This is a sign Atlanta knows Penix is an aggressive player, and they want to keep him in that mindset. 

We saw that aggression again as Atlanta got inside the Giants' 30 on that drive. 

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp on 3rd and 2

- Fade from slot vs C1 --> Good idea.
- Throw too high/far
- Reasonable aggression here. pic.twitter.com/VroHasycI9

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Atlanta also knows Penix's velocity and placement as a deep thrower are strengths the offense lacked all year. They want to put the Giants and the next two opponents on notice that the entire field is exploitable with Penix at the helm. 

We also saw Penix make more complex decisions during the game, including throws that went beyond a second read. 

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. getting to 3rd read on this play to Kyle Pitts. #RiseUp pic.twitter.com/LSkA5ROwsZ

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Atlanta gave Penix a simple concept early to get him into the flow game. They didn't hide him from the defense. 

A Preview of the Coverages Penix Will See This Year

The Giants began the game with Cover 1 and Cover 3. Cover 1 is man-to-man with a single high safety.  Cover 3, looks like Cover 1 in many respects, but the corners play outside the receivers and operate with more zone principles. Certain routes in Cover 3 get treated with man-to-man coverage and this can lead to people confusing it with Cover 1. 

Penix's first throw against Cover 1 showed us that Penix had a good sense of the coverage, the potential holes in the coverage, and where and when to return to the biggest opening. 

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp

Looks comfortable coming back to the in-breaker to Drake London.

Knows pre-snap he has C1 with flat LB wide and that leaves the middle open.

Assesses left side, comes back to right with smooth timing. pic.twitter.com/rwYQitM9fK

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Here's an early-game rep against Cover 3. Although the outcome isn't productive, Penix is seeing the field by the playbook against this coverage type. As he gets more comfortable, he'll get more creative and adaptable within the bounds of the play call and make minor adjustments like the one I suggested in the video.

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp

- Assesses London in middle vs C3 with LBs dropping.
- Decides to hit Woerner leaking out but inaccurate

I think as Penix gets comfortable within his own game at this level, he'll just go to his natural throwing side and hit Bijan on the leak. pic.twitter.com/8NOBSsCypG

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Cover 1 and Cover 3 are common coverages in the college game. These two examples didn't have any significant disguises or alterations.

Although straightforward looks, we saw a tentative Bryce Young against looks like these before Young's early-season benching. After Young's benching, Young looked more like early-2023 Jordan Love or Patrick Mahomes II in his first pro start against the Broncos -- smooth, decisive, and aggressive without confusion. 

These behaviors also characterize what you'll see from the rest of the Giants' film in Penix's first start. 

What About Cover 2?

Two-high safeties -- Cover 2 -- have been a big part of the league in recent years. The Giants eventually used Cover 2 in this game, but they were trying to avoid it because the weakness of the coverage is the ground game, which is the known strength of the Falcons' offense. 

Instead, the Giants tried to confuse Penix with blitz looks from various spots and either send the defender or drop into coverage. None of this fazed Penix. 

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp

- 3rd down slot blitz
- Penix does the quick math on where the LBs must go to fill void of blitzer.
- Penix locates the void
- Penix fills the void (Memes of women watching football on IG listening to commentary everywhere). pic.twitter.com/lLQYIK14N0

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp

He either decides against the leak from right to left.

Or

Eschews the difficult throw up the seam to Pitts to scramble.

Would like to see him try the seam route as he acclimates further. pic.twitter.com/AvkjywVQlD

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

Although you'd like to see Penix fit the ball up the seam to Kyle Pitts on the second clip, it was a tighter window than it appears. It's also a window that requires precision timing to access it. 

The fact Penix brought the ball back was a good sign that he saw it. It's a sign that as he gets more comfortable, he'll attempt it. 

Penix also didn't take any chances based on his field position and the game script. In that sense, it was also wise.

Penix made wise decisions the entire game.

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp

Two plays from the pocket

- When not to be a hero.
- When to be the hero.

This took young Kirk Cousins quite some time to learn.

The rookie does this well. pic.twitter.com/DcH5DpIY2n

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024

This is something you'd expect from a veteran like Kirk Cousins, but Cousins is coping with an injury that has activated a sense of desperation to get the job done -- Hero Mode. Cousins suffered from the hubris of Hero Ball at Michigan State, Washington, and occasionally in desperate situations in Minnesota. 

NFL Network's Kyle Brandt defines Hero Ball as a positive -- Josh Allen going Ricky Bobby on defenses. Hero Ball has long been defined as a negative -- trying to write checks with throws that your arm can't cash. 

Cousins has long had a penchant for going full-on Brett Favre without the Mississippi Potato Gun attached to his shoulder. We didn't see this in Penix's first start, despite the Giants' attempts to goad him into it. Most passers with Penix's arm -- Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen -- took the bait. 

This is a good sign that Penix's time on the bench has helped him become more mentally prepared. Once the Giants saw none of these tricks were working, they showed Penix Cover 2, but based on how the game unfolded, they couldn't stick with it. 

Penix nearly got the better of them against the look. 

Michael Penix Jr., Jr. #RiseUp

- Giants switch from C2 past to plays to C0
- Penix has the right answer
- Just a bit off with execution.
- Looked like a catch from this angle but this is a case where the broadcast angle is a better source. pic.twitter.com/x2eaW0xqi2

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 23, 2024