Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins were the subjects of my second Gut Check of the 2024 season. Now, they are the subjects of the penultimate Gut Check of this fantasy campaign.

Symmetry is a beautiful thing.

So is an argument with enough signal to cut through the deafening outrage of media and fans over the selection of Penix. Let's revisit the opening 10 paragraphs from the June 26th edition of the Gut Check. 

Picking Michael Penix Jr. Was A Good Decision

The public reaction to the Falcons selecting Michael Penix Jr sixth overall is indicative of the broad misunderstandings that exist with the evaluation of the position, the valuation for the team, and the opening strategy for a strong development plan. 

Much of the outrage has to do with the public sentiment that Michael Penix Jr. isn't as good as the other passers drafted within the same range. This is a sentiment they're parroting from analysts who may not have the evaluation experience, a well-defined process, and/or a grasp of how to chart accuracy at the position.

I'll share Michael Penix Jr.'s scouting report from the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio in this article. You'll see why many of the public's assertions are problematic. 

Let's put this part of the debate aside. Who is right or wrong about Michael Penix Jr.'s talent is the least important issue surrounding Atlanta's decision to select a quarterback. It's more important to explain why Atlanta drafting a first-round quarterback after paying Kirk Cousins a significant amount of guaranteed money on a four-year deal is a much better decision than most realize. 

The Kirk Cousins Contract: Not A Strong Argument Against Michael Penix Jr.

Let's begin with the money. The collective outrage over the financials with quarterback salaries is always rooted in ignorance. Cousins earns a lot of his money up-front because they are paying him to win now.

This deal is essentially structured for a two-year window of relevancy. By year three, there will be no guaranteed money left on Cousins' contract. Atlanta can roll with Michael Penix Jr. as the starter and get rid of Cousins without significant financial impact. At that point, Cousins will be 38 going on 39 with the 2026 season on the horizon. The contract is a non-issue.

Cousins' Injury Generates A Bigger Need for Michael Penix Jr. Than Portrayed

Speaking of Cousins, his initial reaction to Michael Penix Jr.'s selection was ill-advised on multiple levels. During the same conversation, Cousins told the media he was stunned and thought the pick wasn't a good use of draft capital to help the team win now, but he also said that he can only run in a straight line after his Achilles surgery.

Cousins expects to regain the tendon and muscle strength to maneuver a pocket, but that's an estimation. Achilles recoveries for a quarterback who will be 36 years old when the season begins have more unknowns than they do for a 24-year-old athlete.

Even if Cousins can maneuver a pocket, Atlanta could call on Michael Penix Jr. much earlier if Cousins can't drive off that injured leg and deliver the necessary torque for velocity and placement with his timing routes in the intermediate range of the field. My Going Deep podcast co-host, Brandon Angelo, a trainer of professional athletes, made this salient point about Cousins this spring. 

Cousins may be healthy enough to maneuver the field but not healthy enough to perform at the capacity Atlanta expected. This could make Michael Penix Jr. a necessary start. Tony Pollard's 2023 campaign is the most prominent example of what happens all the time in the NFL.  

Thanks for Making My Point, Kirk Cousins

I'm more critical of Cousins than most. Some of my cohorts admire his leadership based on the Netflix documentary on quarterbacks. From the optics of an edited television series, Cousins looks like an excellent on-field leader, a beloved teammate, and -- pre-injury -- a quarterback at the top of his game. 

Much of this is true. It's also true that Cousins failed one aspect of his leadership test as the player figurehead of his new organization when Atlanta selected Penix in April.

Telling the media that you're stunned about the pick and criticizing its utility, given his age and injury, was a stunning lack of self-awareness. It was also dysfunctional behavior for a leader. 

We all make mistakes. I've made my share in leadership roles. Many 35-year-old men lack the wisdom and leadership skills to handle what unfolded in April.

It wasn't Cousins' job to give his opinion. He inherently believed it was. It is a privileged position that he never earned. This happens a lot. 

There's a difference between leading an offense on the field and leading an organization off it. Cousins isn't the GM, the director of scouting, or the president of the franchise. I would bet that the Falcons brass didn't think they'd have to remind Cousins of that before the draft. 

I will bet that Arthur Blank has a meeting with all of his players next April to impart the following message. Unless your titles are GM, director of scouting, or president, then any criticism about the draft isn't your job. Do your job only. 

Kirk Cousins may have equity in the eyes of fans and media as a "proven producer," but the reality of the situation is much different. Atlanta was taking a gamble on an aging Cousins returning to form from a difficult injury.

Players lose equity after a difficult injury. Cousins didn't see it that way. The organization did, which is why it selected a young quarterback.

Instead of keeping his head down and his mouth shut and proving that he would regain the athletic ability to move and throw the ball with velocity, Cousins questioned his new employer in public and in an area that's not his specialty.  

Fast-forward to the present, and we see that Atlanta had to manufacture a scheme that worked around Cousins' post-injury limitations. Once opposing defenses learned what Cousins could and couldn't do post-injury, the jig was up. 

There was too much Cousins could no longer do. It allowed opposing defenses to put the squeeze on him and bait him into mistakes.

Now it's Week 16, Atlanta has a 7-7 record, a playoff berth is still possible, and they have three lowly defenses -- the Giants, the Commanders (worse than you may realize), and the Panthers -- left on the schedule. They also have an aging veteran quarterback who isn't physically the same.

Cousins has thrown nine interceptions and one touchdown in the past five games. According to ESPN, the last time a quarterback sunk this low was Brett Favre in 2005. At least Favre still had throwing velocity and mobility. 

The coaching staff has seen enough to know Cousins can't get the job done. Would another defensive lineman or safety have made the difference in Atlanta's fortunes? No. 

Who needs a quarterback now, Cousins? 

Two things about leading in the NFL: 1) You lead by example. 2) A significant injury greatly diminishes, if not wipes out, any equity you've accumulated from the past to talk about matters outside your on-field purview. 

Cousins' legacy embodies a lot of positives. He has a history of being a good NFL starter. He also believed he could comment on player-personnel decisions before he proved he was healthy enough to lead a team.

Cousins got paid like a starter before he proved he could perform like one. It's stunning to me that he would share his thoughts on the Penix selection when, during the same interview, he told the media that he still couldn't do anything athletically beyond running in a straight line. Prove you've still got it before questioning your new organization's decisions.

A lot of people will disagree. They don't think Cousins did anything wrong. Many would have done the same in their day-to-day work lives and would have believed it was acceptable.

It strikes a nerve with them that Cousins would be called out in this fashion. The truth is that Cousins spoke out of turn. He was getting paid to prove that he'd earn that money. He got the opportunity to get that money based on his past performance, but his injury made it a significant gamble. 

The fact Cousins didn't see the situation this way and chose to behave as if he didn't have a lot more to prove was the embodiment of entitlement.  

Criticize Atlanta for the risk of taking Cousins, but not for drafting a quarterback. And siding with Cousins for his behavior? While not a cardinal sin, Cousins' behavior serves as a reflection of how a lot of society thinks it's ok to do what we did and then be genuinely confused that he'd warrant criticism for it. 

Rant over.

What Should We Expect from Penix? 

You have access to the full scouting report. No need to get into those weeds here. Let's keep it simple. 

More Big Plays

Penix was the best boundary thrower of fades (front and back-shoulder), deep outs, go routes, and comebacks in this draft class. His arm talent is on par with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, and his placement at the boundary is even better. 

Expect Penix to deliver more timing throws to the boundary and leverage his receivers' size and aerial abilities. Drake London and Kyle Pitts should earn more big plays on sail/corner routes and fades that originate from the slot. London and Mooney will see more timing routes 15-20 yards downfield that break to the boundary.