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The Gut Check No. 642: Kendre Miller's Future Value

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No. 642: Kendre Miller's Future Value
By Matt Waldman, December 11, 2024

Matt Waldman reviews Kendre Miller's pre-draft scouting report and the rookie film to forecast his fantasy future.

© Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images kendre-miller

Kendre Miller: Similarities to Lamar Miller

Kendre Miller reminded me of Lamar Miller, the former Dolphin and Texans runner who earned between 1,000 - 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 6-10 touchdowns between 2014 and 2018. Lamar averaged nearly 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns during his second and third seasons in Miami. He might have sustained that rate of production if he wasn't playing with Deshaun Watson for two years in Houston.

Watson generated 820 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground during that span. It's not outlandish to expect Lamar could have earned 300 of those yards and 3-4 of those 7 scores with a different quarterback. 

Lamar was a smooth-running talent with big-play ability.  He had two runs of 97 yards and an 85-yard gain during his career. Not many backs have a collection of runs like that on their resume -- he's the only player with two rushing TDs over 95 yards in a career. 

He also had more skills than utilized in the passing game. 

It's important to frame Lamar as a better running back than fantasy GMs may remember him because of the similarities between him and his namesake, Kendre. A smooth-running back with the explosion, contact balance, and agility to become as good of a starter as Lamar -- Kendre is potentially a better fantasy option.

Potential Can Be a Bad Word

Telling someone they have potential is usually meant as a compliment. What's embedded in that word is that they're not good enough today, and tomorrow may never come. 

Kendre Miller's potential is also dependent on the potential of his team. Since Drew Brees and Sean Payton left New Orleans, Saints fans have been wondering if tomorrow will ever come.

As you're about to learn -- or have your priors confirmed -- Miller is a talented young player who is sweet candy for fantasy GMs who are suckers for potential. It's possible -- maybe even likely -- that Miller's potential will sucker these fantasy GMs into overpaying during the 2025 offseason. 

Let's explore Miller's talents and obstacles and weigh the options for fantasy managers.  

Excerpts from Kendre Miller's RSP Scouting Report

Miller earned a score of 84.2 on the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's (RSP) 100-point grading scale. A score of 85 translates to a player who can start immediately with a large role and learn on the go. 

Miller's score placed him on the cusp of this immediate tier as a running back who can execute at a starter level in a specific role that plays to his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. Earning a grade this close to starter status means that most mistakes we see in Miller's game should be minor and correctable and more often than not, we'll see a lot more plays that demonstrate why he can take over a backfield. 

Here's the Elevator Pitch from the 2023 RSP's pre-draft report on Miller: 

"Kendre Miller is a smooth running back with power and vision who does everything well enough to be a starter and has the potential to become even better. His acceleration is a trait that jumps off the screen when viewing his tape.

Compared to Zach Charbonnet, Miller appears more explosive and just as rugged, but with a lower center of gravity. Right now, Miller lacks the refinement that Charbonnet displays as a pass protector, but that’s because Miller doesn’t incorporate technically sound strikes as often as he’s capable.

Overall, Miller has more promise on passing downs because of his hand-eye coordination, fewer flaws with pass-catching technique, and potential for quick growth as a pass protector."

When highlighting the greatest strengths of his game, I categorized them according to the physical, technical, conceptual, and intuitive aspects of his play. 

Physical: Miller plays a physical brand of football that leverages his acceleration and quickness with and without the ball.  

Technical: When he chooses to uppercut with his strikes, he can stand up well-timed A-Gap blitzes from linebackers and create second-chance opportunities to dictate the action with a follow-up punch. He still overextends when he strikes with the uppercut, but it’s good to see he can use the optimal punching style.

Conceptual: Miller possesses the savvy to manipulate defenders on zone runs based on late pre-snap and early post-snap information.

Intuitive: He has good awareness of where defenders are as he’s turning back to face the quarterback at the catch-point, and he’ll adjust his transitions to account for it. This is an excellent integration of what he saw and projecting it forward into an account of how to respond.

As mentioned in the Elevator Pitch, the low center of gravity is something to remember as we look at some of his tape. 

Pre-Draft Film Excerpts

Vision/Decision-Making Strengths

Vision/Decision-Making Weaknesses

Pass-Catching and Balance

Pass-Protection Strengths/Weaknesses

What This All Means in the Present

As a ball carrier, Miller can deliver moments where you can see him offering excellent value when Alvin Kamara's career as a Saint ends. The talent shines through even some of the rough moments of working through obstacles that trip up young runners at the NFL level. 

While not as refined a decision-maker as Kamara, Miller's footwork and ability to dictate and react to obstacles approaches some of the special things we've seen Kamara do over the years. 

Where Miller is not ready to take over for Kamara is the passing game -- diagnosing and executing against blitzes as well as being on the same page with his quarterback when leaking into open zones. 

It's possible that Miller earned the ire of former head coach Dennis Allen because of his lack of detail in the passing game. Poor execution as a pass protector can ruin an offense's season with one hit. Poor execution as a route runner can ruin the outcome of a game. 

Combine these areas needing improvement with nagging injuries, and it's easy to see why Allen -- who probably saw New Orleans in a win-now window to begin the year -- saw Miller as a short-term liability in a situation where Allen only had a short-term tenure if he didn't win early and often. 

That leads us to...

The State of the Saints

Kamara remains an elite playmaker in every facet of the running back position. Chris Olave is an excellent wide receiver. Taysom Hill is an excellent Joker type who can deliver versatile production within a Klint Kubiak offense that leverages the talents of all three players mentioned above. 

Derek Carr is a problem. While he's a tough player with a big arm and skilled at processing a lot of pre-snap information, Carr folds too often under pressure. His decision-making "Garoppplos" -- impulsive and confounding execution in key moments. 

Former Saint Michael Thomas has delivered a great deal of vitriol toward Carr on social media. The optics of this may look like that of a bitter star whose career ended prematurely -- especially when considering the rancor between Thomas and the Saints about his desire to take his time to return to the field. 

At the same time, Thomas always had a reputation for working closely with his quarterbacks and having high expectations for himself and his quarterbacks. Thomas' criticisms of Carr appear to echo what Olave can't say but what we see on the field plays out -- missing clear pre-snap/post-snap opportunities to feed Olave, poor decision-making under pressure, and hospital-ball placement that doesn't show awareness for his teammates' well-being. 

There is a potential out with Carr's contract at year's end, but will the Saints take it or let him play out his final two years of the deal? 

There are a lot of components in place for New Orleans to succeed, but not enough to do it without strong leadership under center and on the sideline. If the quarterback and head coach aren't solidified, top free agents won't make the Saints a priority destination. 

The wrong head coach may also desire to change the scheme and choose their talents. This could lead to Miller falling out of favor before he even gets a shot at significant playing time. It could also change the offense to a system that doesn't leverage Miller's strengths. 

If the Saints send Carr packing, Spencer Rattler might be the future, but he'll need an excellent offseason to prove it. Jake Haener is a better decision-maker but not as physically talented. The 2025 NFL Draft QB class is rumored to look more like the 2022 QB class than the 2024 crew.

If true, the Saints may be better off with a veteran free agent than a rookie. However, who will want to come to New Orleans in its current state of disarray? Sam Darnold? Justin Fields? Russell Wilson? Joe Flacco? Jameis Winston Part Deux? 

If the answers to these questions don't prove sufficient, the post-Kamara ground game could feel more apocalyptic for fantasy GMs. 

Miller's Fantasy Future

Talent is a good bet when considering running backs for your fantasy leagues. Miller has plenty of it. So does the steady influx of running backs entering the league every year -- regardless of their draft capital. 

Remember, the Zamir White love was boundless enough to think Josh Jacobs was expendable. UDFA Sincere McCormick is now a thing. 

With Miller, you're still in wait-and-see mode -- even with an increase in touches as the season wanes. Here are the cases for Miller as a fantasy asset. 

The Case for Buying Miller

Miller has high-end running skills, good pass-catching, and the potential to improve his details as a route runner and pass protector. Kamara is still good but aging, and when the veteran reaches that cliff, the descent will be sudden and steep. 

As smart and gifted as Kamara is, I could see the 29-year-old having starter value for another two seasons. He's a dedicated athlete, and that could extend his shelf life. Still, the need for a longer recovery time increases as players age. 

Miller could become the David Montgomery to Kamara's Jahmyr Gibbs as soon as next year. He's getting that tryout ahead of Jamaal Williams this month, and the early returns look good. 

The offensive line was better this year and the Kubiak system was also helpful. I'd bet on this system remaining in place in 2025 despite the ongoing search for a new head coach. 

Miller's dynasty value is probably on par with the 3-5 rookie running backs taken after Ashton Jeanty -- backs who will likely join a team with an established veteran they won't immediately overtake. Think Chase Brown or De'Vone Achane as best-case scenarios and Ray Davis as the lower end of that spectrum. 

I would prefer to buy into Miller only after we know the outcome of the 2025 NFL Draft. 

The Case for Selling Miller

The quarterback situation has low odds of getting resolved in the next 3-5 years. It means this team could be a revolving door for mediocre talent and coaches. 

Alvin Kamara says he wants to remain a Saint for life, but a bad locker room could change that dynamic. If New Orleans finds a suitable trade partner in a window of contention, Miller could get the volume fantasy GMs wish for. 

That trade will have to come this offseason while Kamara is about to turn 30. Don't expect any team to make a big deal for Kamara beyond that calendar number. 

Don't count on it at all. By the time Kamara is done, there may be another coaching change. That new regime may make wholesale changes -- including parting ways with Miller. 

Miller is a good talent playing a position where there are a lot of interchangeable talents. If you can sell him at a value on par with the top 3-5 running backs after Jeanty in this class, it's a viable strategy for dynasty teams that are almost finished with their rebuilds and close to contending. 

The Case for Holding Miller

Miller could have some strong games during the final four weeks and increase his dynasty value. What he did this week is probably doing that already. 

Don't expect Miller's stock to rise enough to put him on par with the top 2-3 backs in the 2025 NFL Draft. It's more likely Miller gets an extended shot because Kamara gets hurt. After all, running backs get hurt, that's their lot in life as professionals who take a lot of punishment and contort their bodies as they do. 

Running backs play in traffic. Eventually, you get hit by the dump truck or trip over the manhole cover and get clipped by a Ducati. 

Miller may not maximize his potential in New Orleans without a top quarterback, but he can still deliver starter value. We saw it with Brian Robinson Jr when Sam Howell was the Commanders' starter in 2023. 

If you're rebuilding or contending and have the luxury, Miller is a great hold because his temporary value could rise and you can be in a position to leverage it on the field or the open market. 

Good luck! 

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Kendre Miller New Orleans Saints RB the gut check Week 15 season long Dynasty

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