The Gut Check No. 641: Drake Maye's Fantasy Future

Drake Maye has a shot to become a good NFL quarterback. That was my analysis pre-draft. It's still my analysis after studying his rookie tape. 

The big question remains: Do I think he'll do it? 

The Data Traces A Picture

With nine NFL starts in the books, Maye ranks as QB19 in fantasy formats since Week 4. His 11 passing TDs rank 17th. 

Maye's 6.72 yards per attempt is 34th. His eight interceptions? They're tied for the third-highest total in the league during this stretch. 

His 67.9 percent completion rate is 10th, and his 333 rushing yards since Week 4 ranks fourth among passers. 

Add the film to these stats, and here's how I'd summarize Maye's rookie performance: There are promising moments, but work to do that still could dramatically tip the scales in either direction. 

The Film Adds and Blends Detail and Color

Defenses are playing a lot of umbrella coverages against Maye. They've been betting that they can get to Maye in the pocket before he can find an open receiver that gets behind coverage. 

Opponents would rather make Maye beat them with a lot of short passing. They believe the longer the drive, the more likely Maye and the offense will commit fatal errors -- sacks, fumbles, interceptions, and turnovers on downs -- and non-fatal errors -- throwaways, incomplete passes, and penalties. 

When defenses abandon Cover 4, Cover 6, and Cover 2 against the Patriots, they've succeeded with disguised blitzes with man coverage behind the pressure. Maye has feasted as a runner, but his 25 sacks -- among the top half of sacked quarterbacks in the league after just nine games -- is the famine. 

Maye has been at his best making quick decisions off two-man route combinations where he can read the position of 1-2 defenders and get the ball out fast. Opponents have learned from the film that they don't want to give Maye too many shots up the boundary. 

Maye has also made highlight-worthy plays when he identifies pressure, gets outside the pocket, and finds an open receiver. Pressure is the ultimate factor with Maye at this point in his career. 

If he can identify it, get outside of it, or break the pocket, he can generate chunk plays with his arm and chain-moving gains with his legs. When he's late to identify pressure and reactive to it, he's mistake-prone. 

Because it's best to wait at least 15-17 games -- and as many as 18-30 games -- with rookie quarterbacks, I see meaningful growth in Maye's game, but he still has important work ahead. Some of the issues are difficult to learn at this point in his development. 

The Pre-Draft Scouting Report

My Rookie Scouting Portfolio profile on Maye included a grade of 76.625 -- a contributor who can start in a limited role, but with diminishing returns beyond that scope. From what we've seen thus far statistically, in the win-loss column, and on film, that grade appears accurate. 

Let's dig deeper into Maye's report with the RSP's Elevator Pitch: 

Elevator Pitch: For at least the past year, Maye has been widely regarded as one of the top two prospects in this quarterback class. He is the quintessential Robo-QB, I broached in my scouting report on Patrick Mahomes: A “safe” technically sound athlete that looks like a prospect who rolled off an assembly line that checks the easy-to-define boxes:

• Prominent Division-I program.
• Prolific yardage and scoring.
• Requisite completion percentage.
• Big frame.
• Requisite height.
• Big arm.

These are all positives for sure, but there are facets of quarterbacking that NFL decision-makers believe will develop with experience:

• Situational game management.
• Pinpoint placement and accuracy that completion percentage doesn’t track.
• Processing coverage accurately and confidently.
• Late pre-snap/early post-snap diagnosis.
• Sensing pressure.
• Efficient pocket management.

If a quarterback possesses some degree of these skills when they enter the league, there’s potential for them to refine their as a pro and fulfill the potential that NFL decision-makers see. About half of the Robo-QBs who earn first-round picks do not possess enough of these skills in great enough quantity, and they fail to develop into franchise starters.

If you go by List No.1, Maye fits the pre-draft billing. If you go by List No.2, Maye has work ahead, and there are few guarantees that he’ll develop into a franchise starter despite the likelihood of earning early opportunities to prove that he can.

Maye’s size, toughness in the pocket, big arm, and mobility show up prominently on the tape. Just as Baker Mayfield’s completion percentage at Oklahoma exemplified why Accuracy Is a Deceptive Category because a slow or indecisive processor of information isn’t as prominent in the college game, Maye’s flaws with pocket management, reading coverage, and reticence to take the easy solutions will rear their ugly heads to greater effect in the NFL.

To add one more issue to the list, Maye’s accuracy isn’t as strong as his completion percentage, especially his on-platform accuracy without pressure as a factor. This accounts for most of a quarterback’s throws.

As it stands entering the draft, Maye’s tape reveals a quarterback who can contribute if needed but is closer to the reserve tier than the rotational starter tier. Because Maye doesn’t see the field as well as some think, generates unnecessary pressure in the pocket, and has technique lapses that hinder his accuracy, he’s not well-suited for a rebuilding organization.

Bad teams rarely rebuild fast enough to provide a quarterback with Maye’s issues with the essential building blocks for him to experience only the expected bumps along his road of development. Justin Fields is a great example of a Robo-QB prospect whose first team failed to provide consistent protection, veteran receivers who could make his job easier, and a well-conceived scheme tailored to his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses.

If Maye can refine his accuracy and improve his game management, he should become a contributor that a team will try to build around to make the most of his gifts to optimize his production potential. If Maye can improve his processing speed, confidence to act quickly on what he’s seeing, and/or improve his pocket management, he could reach the franchise-starter potential expected of him. These are difficult issues to address and it’s why Maye’s game has the greatest trap door of the top prospects.

Rookie Year vs. Scouting Report

I'm going to paraphrase excerpts from the rest of my scouting report on Maye. I'll use these excerpts to show where Maye has improved, how his baseline strengths look as a Patriot, and where he still has work to do. I've watched seven starts. I'm using videos from three games: Indianapolis, Miami, and Tennessee. 

 The Colts pass defense is middle of the road. The Dolphins and Titans are good units. 

While you'll see many of the same things from Maye against teams like the Rams -- I don't like using an undisciplined unit with a lot of mental breakdowns when I don't have to. 

Where Maye Looks Better

I'm seeing more check-downs in New England than I saw Maye try with North Carolina. It took me six games of charting to see Maye execute a judicious check-down. In the other contests, Maye took larger risks -- often poor risks -- attacking downfield or took sacks attempting to buy time so he could attack downfield. 

It's important to have a big-play mentality in the NFL. It's equally important to balance that mentality with when to manage the game and take the small victories and/or small losses rather than the huge defeats. 

Maye is still trying to fit the ball into tight targets under pressure in situations where he shouldn't (more on this later) and making mistakes, but he is taking the check-downs more often. Here's one after an interception that I'll show later. 

Maye checks this down the play after the INT where he had as much time to do the same -- and in the same direction.

Good work. pic.twitter.com/EvBUhv4pPa

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 4, 2024