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The Gut Check No. 639: Can You Count on Caleb Williams?

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No. 639: Can You Count on Caleb Williams?
By Matt Waldman, November 20, 2024

The Gut Check examines the fantasy potential of Caleb Williams down the stretch.

© Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images - williams-footballguys
 

Caleb Williams: A Hidden Value?

Can you count on Caleb Williams down the stretch of your fantasy season? 

Most of you hope you won't have to face that question. After all, Williams and the Chicago Bears quarterbacks (-0.7 points from Tyson Bagent on kneel-downs) are 30th in fantasy points scored at the position entering Week 12.

The remaining schedule of opponents doesn't look appealing, either.  Chicago faces blitz-happy Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 and 15. They face the Lions in Weeks 13 and 16 -- the 7th-stingiest fantasy defenses to quarterbacks to date. 

Sandwiched between these bookends of divisional foes are the 49ers, just a notch below the Lions in the stinginess factor. The Bears' most favorable fantasy matchup is a Week 17 contest with the Seahawks, who are a neutral-looking matchup as the 17th-ranked defense when measuring fantasy generosity to quarterbacks. 

Geez, Matt, if you're telling me to avoid Williams and the Bears -- an offense I've been mostly avoiding like cyanide gas--you're off to a great start. Unfortunately, I didn't need to click this article to know this. 

No, you didn't, boss. You clicked it because you know I like tackling challenging topics.

When the consensus recommended Zero RB this summer, yours truly touted early RB. Not only early RBs but the two many thought were washed -- Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. There was also no shying away from J.K. Dobbins. 

All-in on Ladd McConkey in June as a top-10 WR? That was well-received, right? McConkey is WR18 in PPR after 10 games, but WR9 during the past 5. 

Or telling you that Baker Mayfield and Darnell Mooney had no business going so late in drafts. There was also the recommendation to enjoy the Anthony Richardson panic.

We all get our share wrong, but these success stories weren't easy topics. Neither is Williams, but knowing the potential hidden value of options many have written off contributes to successful playoff stories every year. 

Let's examine if Williams is potentially a hidden value.

The Coordinator Change

Chicago replaced offensive coordinator Shane Waldron with Thomas Brown heading into Week 11, and Williams delivered his fourth-best fantasy performance of the season in a heart-breaking one-point loss to the Packers. My friend, Dave Cannolis, mentioned on X today that he has watched hundreds of hours of Brown's offense as the Panthers' play-caller. 

Cannolis' thoughts: We're going to see more "first read and run" and "line of scrimmage throws." 

"[Brown] is going to simplify this offense to the bone." 

Where will this ultimately help Williams and the fantasy production of the Bears' offense? 

Leveraging More of DJ Moore's Strengths

I can't exactly say where I got this bit of information, but a source I trust shared with me that Moore is unpredictable and unreliable as a route runner. I haven't investigated this further, so it could prove incorrect, but the source explained it had to do with route concepts where Moore and his quarterback have to be on the same page. 

I know for a fact that Moore is a technically sound route runner when talking about release footwork, hand-fighting, stem manipulation, and sharp breaks. What my source is alluding to is likely route depths and adjustments based on the defense. 

While I don't have time to verify the details to share in this article, I'm hoping I'll get more clarification later. Moore's decline in production from last year is likely a combination of factors -- Moore, Williams, and the Waldron offense.

What matters for fantasy GMs is that Brown's simplification of it led to a much higher completion percentage between Williams and Moore. Browns' changes are getting the ball to Moore early and letting him use his excellent skills as a runner in space. 

Moore's 7-62-0 performance against the Packers was his third-best fantasy output of the year. Last year, that box score would have been Moore's eighth-best game.

Moore was the No.6 fantasy WR in PPR in 2023. The change in offense for Moore will, at best, simply salvage some fantasy value from a player outside the top 36 receivers before the Packers' game. 

You may not get as many intermediate and vertical shots for Moore for the rest of the year. Williams and the Bears have to go back to the drawing board with a lot of their timing routes. 

Some of this may have to do with footwork. 

Altering the Drop Plan

My podcast partner, Brandon Angelo, shared some of the problems he saw with the Bears' offense under Shane Waldron with our Going Deep audience last week. If you want to learn Angelo's thoughts on the schematics and personnel, start the video at the 7:34 mark to learn what's mentioned below: 

  • Not returning to concepts that worked such as bunched receivers and bootlegs. 
  • A lack of rhythm and continuity with calling plays. 
  • Running plays that wouldn't work in theory, pre-snap, and not calling timeouts.
  • Placing DJ Moore as an X receiver instead of his natural position as a flanker.
  • Veterans were not being held accountable.

One of the things mentioned off the air was that there were some plays -- not all plays, but some -- where Waldron didn't have a prescribed drop plan for Williams and it led to some footwork issues. 

USC tape shows an offense and quarterback whose feet were married effectively to the route concepts of the plays. As J.T. O'Sullivan often notes in his college quarterback evals that I have seen on occasion, there are more ill-conceived drop plans for plays than you might imagine for major college coaches.

It's also likely that Williams' footwork has suffered because he has been overloaded with responsibilities that some of his peers entering the league don't -- or didn't early on. A quarterback's footwork is a great indicator of how well he's seeing and processing the field. 

When you combine the heavy pressure the offensive line has allowed, the lack of continuity with the game plan, and a veteran receiver playing out of position, these problems can overload the bandwidth of a young passer. Instead of playing within a flow, he's trying to account for all the potential external issues contributing to his success and failure that aren't exactly his job. 

When a player is overthinking, he can't get into the flow of performance. When that happens, his play deteriorates. The first place you'll see that for a quarterback is often his drop plan. 

Limiting Pressure and Getting Williams into a Flow

Enter Thomas Brown, who is simplifying the offense. The idea is to get Williams into a flow state. 

This was much of what you saw during the first half of the game: short and quick passes that kept Williams from dealing with constant pressure and allowed his options to earn yards after the catch—something where Moore, Allen, and Odunze all excel. 

As Williams got into the flow of the game, Brown opened up the offense with more shots downfield. 

Because Williams has a chance to get into a rhythm without constant harassment, he's not overthinking when the occasional pressure arrives. Suddenly, you're seeing Caleb Williams hitting throws that we saw him make at USC.

The Broad Strokes of the Brown Offense

Angelo pointed out before the Bears' Week 7 bye, Williams was third in EPA per drop before the offense completely fell apart. Chicago also faced the Colts, Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars leading up to the week off -- some of the most generous defenses in the NFL. 

After the bye, the Bears faced teams that had enough tape to scout the offense and generate obstacles that Chicago lacked a counter. With Brown in place, we're going to see a simple offense where execution is the biggest priority. 

  • An increase of short, quick passes to receivers. 
  • More yards after the catch. 
  • Continued emphasis on the ground game -- 14th in the league in fantasy points scored. 
  • Williams will break the pocket earlier. 
  • Intermediate and deep routes off quick drops and more dependent on placement receiver adjustments
  • Long-developing plays with misdirection designed to give Williams and his receivers time. 

How Does This Impact Williams' Fantasy Output? 

Williams will see less pressure because of the quicker and shorter targets. This will lead to more completions. A higher volume of touches gives the Bears receivers more chances of breaking big plays. 

We may not see Williams' yardage totals increase dramatically, but I'm betting we won't see as many games where he's delivering less than 180 yards passing. With Williams breaking the pocket more after 1-2 reads, we'll probably see rushing totals increase.

Williams averaged 23 yards per game as a runner. His best game under Waldron was a 56-yard game against the Jaguars.

With Brown, Williams earned 70 yards against the Packers. Expect Williams' better games to flirt with 60-80 yards on the ground for the rest of the year, but a sober baseline per week is 40 yards. 

Williams averaged 178 yards per game as a passer and less than a touchdown per game under Waldron. He averaged 23 yards as a runner and didn't score once.

Expect Williams to climb from 201 yards from scrimmage to 240 yards per scrimmage per contest in this system. We should also see a slight bump in passing touchdowns to 1 per game from 0.9 per contest.

I'd even expect an increase in rushing touchdowns to one every three contests, which averages out to an extra two points per game when looking through the lens of projections.  

Williams averages 13.7 fantasy points per game. With the projected yardage bump, that would place Williams at 17.6 per game -- just behind Bo Nix's current average as QB9. If you add the 0.4 points per game bump I'm projecting with passing touchdowns, Williams is now above Nix at 18 points per game. 

If Williams earns two more rushing touchdowns -- one out of every three contests as I'm projecting -- you're looking at another two-point bump to his average and that places Williams at 20 points per game. He'd be knocking on the door of top-five production. 

Realistically, I'd throw out the 2.4 points per game that would come from touchdowns and stick with the 17.6 per game average as a more realistic production bump. If you do that, you'll know that Williams--despite a seemingly more difficult schedule--has the production value commensurate with "startable quarterbacks" in that QB8-QB16 range. 

More importantly, Thomas Brown will have nailed shut the trap door that leads to Williams' fantasy floor. That's what will make Williams a more appealing option if you find yourself in need of a quarterback off the scrap heap. 

Then, you can use those 2.4 points per game projected in touchdown increases as Williams' potential ceiling during this span. 

But What about Williams' Remaining Matchups?

The Vikings' blitz-happy defense is the 13th-most generous unit in fantasy. Limiting the blitz limits the strength of the defense. The Texans are a good example of an offense with a bad offensive line that failed to do that because they stubbornly continued using a lot of longer-developing plays as their base of attack in the first half of that game.

The Vikings are also worse than they are on paper when you account for Daniels Jones, Joe Flacco, and Mac Jones as three of the opposing quarterbacks. 

The Lions are a more legitimate unit. Still, if you consider the quarterbacks with known skill with buying time and receivers with skills after the catch, they can be vulnerable. 

Matthew Stafford had all of his receivers in Week 1 and he scored 19.9 points. Baker Mayfield in Week 2? 22.7 points. Even Kyler Murray -- the James Harden of quarterbacks -- scored 18.9. 

Geno Smith earned 27.6 with a good YAC unit. Sam Darnold and company generated 20.9 points. Jordan Love would normally qualify but he's playing through a leg injury, which somewhat explains his 13.7 points. 

If you average the outputs of Stafford, Mayfield, Murray, Smith, and Darnold, you're looking at starter production. Williams has a legitimate shot here. 

Even the 49ers are vulnerable. When you account for the defense's best performances, there's a little bit of "paper champion" in the results. 

They faced Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, Stafford without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in Week 3, Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots in Week 3, and Baker Mayfield without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 10. 

Those quarterbacks averaged 12.55 points per game. The rest of their opponents? 22.7 points per game. The Falcons allow 22.6 points per game as the fifth-most generous unit in the NFL. The 49ers are more vulnerable than it appears. 

These are five of Williams' next six matchups with the mediocre Seahawks in Week 17. If you're looking for a hidden value at QB, Williams could be that guy. 

Don't be silly, if you have an established starter with a decent schedule and healthy surrounding talent, keep that guy. If you have the luxury to stash Williams on a strong team in case your quarterback situation goes sideways, do it. 

Keep Williams in mind if you find yourself in a situation where you have to comb the dregs of your waiver wire. Just keep in mind that the better he does, the more in demand he might become. 

 

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