The Gut Check No. 638: Buy-Sell-Hold Giants Offense

The Giants are on bye this week. When the press asked head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen about Daniel Jones' future, neither would commit to Jones remaining the starting quarterback in Week 12. NFL insider Adam Schefter speculated Jones' career as the Giants' starter is over. 

What matters most to us is how this impacts the Giants' fantasy options. Who should we be buying, selling, and holding in this offense? 

Buy: Drew Lock

The Giants media asked Schoen this week who was getting first-team reps and Schoen said practice is looking a lot different than it has in the past. Because Lock has been the No.2 option on the depth chart, it's likely he earns the first shot to take over for Jones. 

I'm about to share a long backstory about Lock because there's some worthwhile insider context behind his career arc. If you don't care, that's fine, skip the next dozen paragraphs. 

I could not give a clear endorsement of Lock as an early-round prospect when I scouted him for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio because his reliance on his arm talent far outpaced his conceptual and technical refinement at the position, and it appeared Lock didn't have the desire to work at his craft. 

This was notable when he starred at Missouri. Lock got away with bad game management, late decisions, bad reads, and sloppy technique against most teams. When he faced the Alabamas, Georgias, and LSUs of the college football world, the margin for error narrowed and he cost his team series, points, turnovers, and wins.

The analogy I gave for Lock's behavior was of the smart high school student who got away with making As and Bs without much studying. He'd try to summon his talent as a quick study in college, but the complexity of the information required the discipline of daily work and his performance plummeted. 

Missouri's coaching staff enabled Lock. They had no reason to do otherwise -- Missouri is a mid-level-to-low-level SEC program that couldn't get as much top-tier national talent as Alabama, Georgia, and LSU.

They didn't have a player on the bench with Lock's ability. As long as Lock helped the team get to a bowl game, their season was a success and the coaches weren't under pressure.

If Lock was at Alabama, the threat of a young prospect taking Lock's job if he didn't constantly work at his craft was ever-present. At Missouri, coaches might tell Lock where he can improve and why it might matter to him as a pro, but Lock also had a ton of voices telling him that he was a top NFL prospect. 

This was my presumption of Lock's behavior based solely on his college tape. Years later, Cecil Lammey, who had read my pre-draft scouting report, had gotten to know Lock's dad. Lammey confirmed my priors with this story: 

When Lock arrived in Denver, Peyton Manning reached out and offered his services to the young quarterback. Lock thanked Manning for the offer but never acted on it. Only when Lock faltered for two years and the Broncos acquired Teddy Bridgewater to compete with Lock for the starting role did Lock reach out to Manning. 

This is typical behavior of a talented young man who heard throughout his early and late adolescence that he was great. Lock had private quarterback coaches, camp invitations, and a lot of press. He was talented and privileged. 

A more mature, focused young man with greater self-awareness would have looked at the offer from Manning a lot differently than Lock. If I had the perspective I have today and Lock's talent, I would have asked if I could move into Manning's garage and do chores for the Hall of Famer.

I'd want as much time, wisdom, and coaching from Manning as possible. If that's what it took, I'd be washing cars, walking dogs, changing diapers, and moving lawns for his help. 

Lock's dad told Cecil that he loved his son and that Lock was a terrific young man, but he (and others) had been telling Lock since high school that he had to prepare more if he was going thrive in the NFL. It only began to click for Lock when Bridgewater became a threat to Lock's starting role. 

When Lock wound up in Seattle he had some compelling moments in starts against the Eagles and 49ers in place of the injured Geno Smith. Here are some cutups of the good things Lock did -- and has often done as a strong talent, but not often a great student of the game. 

Where Drew Lock wins in ways that could elevate Malik Nabers and company.

- Vertical aggression and placement
- Less time needed to pull the trigger.
- Better pocket clock
- Functional pocket movement looking to throw first, run later.
- Placement pic.twitter.com/zGJQzxrqji

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2024

Lock had an emotional post-game interview on national television after leading the Seahawks to a late victory over the Eagles. Based on what I shared about his career arc, you could see how Lock had stared in the face of his potential career death and realized he hadn't maximized his opportunities.

He had faced the Great Emotional Divide. What Lock has done since facing it is something we're about to discover. If he has put in the work, it's possible he could revive his career despite Giants media dismissing him out of hand as "knowing what he is." 

I am not telling you I believe Lock will revive his career as a starter, but I'm open to the possibility. I've also been telling you since this spring that I've been projecting Lock to eventually take over for Jones, and Lock would be a better option for his receiving corps for the reasons listed in the Twitter/X post above. 

Lock can get careless with the football, but he's decisive and gives receivers opportunities to win. Jones has always had significant flaws that got in the way of his teammates' success. 

Lock's big-play mentality and quick trigger should boost Malik Nabers' game and return him to top-15 fantasy starter production. It could also open more big play opportunities for Darius Slayton when he returns from concussion protocol. 

Wan'Dale Robinson and Nabers should also benefit more from Lock off-script. Although Lock has the arm talent and accuracy on vertical shots up the boundary, Lock has a pocket clock that Jones never had.

It means Lock finds his running backs on leaks and check-downs. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. could earn more targets. 

With the Giants facing weak pass defenses after the bye -- Tampa, Dallas, Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Indianapolis, Lock is worth a flier as a fantasy QB2 who might become a matchup QB1. 

Monitor: Tommy DeVito

A local hero, DeVito's five-game run with at least a touchdown between Weeks 10-14 inspired Giants fans -- especially his 246-yard, 3-TD outing against the Commanders in Week 11.  I explored whether DeVito was for real last year. 

The answer? Yes, he's a viable NFL quarterback. The better answer: He has the potential to become a quality backup who could eventually grow into a journeyman starter ala Gardner Minshew II. 

The compelling reasons are the parts of DeVito's game that have nothing to do with his offensive scheme or the opposing schemes he has faced thus far. His pocket management and footwork are sustainable parts of his game.

DeVito has quick, precise feet. It shows up with his drops, his movement from pressure in the pocket, his ability to reset and fire an accurate ball after avoiding pressure, and even as an open-field runner.

It's the accuracy and precision to adjust and throw with good pass placement that gives DeVito a real shot to sustain his viability as an NFL passer. Note that I haven't labeled him an NFL starter.

At this point, we haven't seen how well DeVito will handle various blitzes, coverages, and the ingenious ways pro defenders and coaches can disguise them. This is a vital part of successful quarterbacking long-term in the NFL.

He also lacks franchise-starter arm talent. If you're seeking a quarterback who can drive the ball with velocity on the move or off-platform, forget it.

DeVito wins with anticipation, delivering the ball just as the receiver begins his break. This includes vertical routes. As the film illustrates, DeVito's best vertical shots are ones he delivers just as the receiver is beginning his break, and the pass-catcher can run under the ball — 30-40 yards up the boundary is the top end of his range. Anything greater offers diminishing returns.

When a quarterback lacks a cannon, he must have skills that compensate for this limitation. DeVito has won for the Giants with the help of his anticipation, quick decisions after avoiding pressure, and chain-moving gains as a runner, you can see what most of those compensatory factors are with his game.

In this respect, DeVito's style of play — strengths and limitations — resembles former MVP Rich Gannon, a quick-release passer with good anticipation who could buy time, gain yards with his legs, and use those skills to offset his arm strength that had a top end of 35-40 yards in the vertical game.

Bet on DeVito being the backup. Unless he begins displaying the tight-window talents of Brock Purdy, he's unlikely a long-term starter of note. 

If he starts and thrives, he'll offer more fantasy support to Nabers, Johnson, and Robinson than  Slayton and Hyatt. Lock is better equipped to unlock Slayton and Hyatt's ceilings in the vertical passing game. DeVito will also utilize Tracy and Singletary more in the passing game. 

Dump: Daniel Jones

Unless Lock and DeVito get hurt, Jones is likely done in New York. I semi-infamously labeled Jones a fraud on draft night. The reason was Dave Gettleman, whose staff bought into the idea that Jones was a David Cutcliffe protege.

Cutcliffe was known for having a hand in the refinement of the Manning brothers' games at Tennessee and Ole Miss. Roughly half of the league bought into the Cutcliffe label associated with Jones at Duke. This was a case of incomplete diligence from scouts and personnel management across the league.

According to a source of mine with a lot of contacts in this arena, a Duke employee explained to NFL people (when asked) that Cutcliffe the head coach had a lot less time and impact on quarterbacks than Cutcliffe the former quarterback developer at Ole Miss and Tennessee. However, they marketed the Cutcliffe appeal to recruits and it only helps a college program to link Daniel Jones' potential first-round value for that reason. 

Jones wasn't a fraud -- the reasons for his elevated draft capital were fraudulent. It played out this way in New York.

His pocket clock was always 1-2 beats slow and it led to him taking punishment and turning the ball over unnecessarily. He didn't see the field well. His game management was too inconsistent and so was his pass placement. He wasn't a great processor of information as the game unfolded.

Jones is the prototypical QB Robot in the pejorative sense of the term: A big-bodied, big-armed passer with enough athletic ability to perform in the NFL but lacking the refined tools between the ears that elevate less athletes like Brock Purdy. The athletic ability, arm talent, and association with Cutcliffe made Jones a safer prospect on paper so his early-round selection might appear more justifiable to some. 

It wasn't. Jones likely finishes his career as a journeyman.