The What of the Matter

Jaxon Smith-Njigba earned 7 catches, 180 yards, and 2 touchdowns in Week 9 against the L.A. Rams. This was the best game of his young NFL career. 

Is Smith-Njigba emerging as an elite receiver, or was the Rams game an aberration? Can he sustain fantasy starter value when DK Metcalf returns from a Grade 1 MCL sprain? If not, when is your deadline to potentially sell high on Smith-Njigba's hot week? 

The Fantasy Details 

Smith-Njigba was WR24 in PPR formats after Week 8, a low-end WR2 in most fantasy starting lineups. His best game was a 23.7-point affair against the New England Patriots, the 19th-most generous defensive unit to fantasy wide receivers. 

After scoring 37 points against the Rams -- the 7th-most generous defense to fantasy WRs -- Smith-Njigba jumped from WR24 to WR13. His 37 points were more than he delivered against the Lions (13.1), Giants (13.1), and 49ers (10.3) in Weeks 4-6 combined.

Smith-Njigba's Opponents and WR Production Against Them

As you can see, L.A. and Detroit were the most generous teams to wide receivers overall that Smith-Njigba has faced thus far -- and the Rams, Lions, and 49ers were the most generous to slot receivers. Additionally, Seattle was without DK Metcalf for the past two weeks, which elevated Njigba's priority in the offensive game plan. 

When considering the Rams' porous pass defense, a prolific passing offense with its primary weapons back in the lineup to dictate a high-scoring game script, and the absence of Metcalf, it's easy to imagine how Smith-Njigba earned nearly 30 percent of his overall fantasy value against L.A. in Week 9. 

Does the film support this theory? Yes, it does. 

How Jaxon Smith-Njigba Delivered Against L.A.

If you don't have 15 minutes to watch the dozen routes I analyzed in this game, you can see my thoughts in in the bullet points below. 

• Smith-Njigba committed two bad mistakes with how he attacked targets in this game. 
• He has good hands, but he's not maximizing his potential with targets that primary receivers win.
• His attack errors are the small margin of error between fantasy WR2/WR3 types and WR1 types.
• Most of his impactful plays came against zone coverage. 
• The Rams' defense committed multiple coverage mistakes, leaving Smith-Njigba wide-open for big plays. 
• These coverage mistakes weren't anomalies that Smith-Njigba influenced with great skill.
• These coverage mistakes have been a weekly problem for the Rams.
• 49ers' reserve Jauan Jennings had a career game against the Rams for similar reasons Smith-Njigba had his career game.
• Smith-Njigba's targets against zones that convert to man-to-man coverage at the top of routes were not productive. 
• When Smith-Njigba was productive against man coverage, he was in the slot with an advantageous two-way-go and/or a two-man route combination that gave the receiver an inherent advantage. 

• Most of Smith-Njigba's targets versus man-to-man weren't productive.  

NFL receivers can see the field and contribute if they can defeat man-to-man or zone coverage. For them to elevate their games beyond situational specialists, they must possess some competency with both coverage types. For them to become consistent threats to deliver top-15 production, they must excel against both. 

Smith-Njigba excels against zone coverage. He's competent at man coverage. He'd be better at man coverage if he shored up his ability to win contested targets with the technique of a primary option. 

Until he does, expecting the Rams game as the moment Smith-Njigba served notice to the league that he's an emerging force is premature. 

Looking Ahead for Smith-Njigba

Here is the remaining schedule for Smith-Njigba and the Seahawks. 

Smith-Njigba's Remaining Opponents and WR Production Against Them

Considering there was a chance for DK Metcalf to return against the Rams, he'll likely be back on the field after the Week 10 bye. Although Metcalf didn't practice last week, there was also a serious negotiation between the Seahawks and Steelers for a potential deal involving Metcalf. 

Seattle might have held Metcalf out of practice -- and the game -- as a precaution. If Metcalf returns in Week 11, expect Smith-Njigba's ceiling to drop precipitously. He'll still hold fantasy value as a WR2-WR3 value against teams that are either generous to slot receivers or are in the bottom third of the league against wide receivers overall. 

His value could drop to the WR3-WR5 range against stingy units to WRs overall and/or specifically good at limited slot options. Week 11 

Re-Draft and Dynasty Advice

Re-draft GMs could try to sell high on Smith-Njigba if you find a GM who is impulsive about chasing points. Otherwise, you're holding the receiver as a match-up play against weaker defenses or if Metcalf isn't ready after the bye week. 

There are a few viable options regarding Smith-Njigba in dynasty leagues. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Geno Smith's contracts end after the 2025 season. It's unlikely the Seahawks extend Smith. Lockett will likely retire.

Selling Soon

Considering that Metcalf was on the table for the Steelers this week, it's possible that in 2026, he'll be gone, too. This could make Smith-Njigba the player the Seahawks hope to build around. If so, you're holding Smith-Njigba and hoping he takes over the primary role. 

For this to happen, he'll need to become a lead slot receiver like Cooper Kupp. While the Sean McVay offense is a popular scheme these days, trends change quickly in the NFL, and two years can be 30-50 percent of a starting WR's NFL career. 

The likely best-case scenario is that Smith-Njigba takes on even more of Lockett's role before the Seahawks change quarterbacks. Lockett is still the PPR fantasy WR30 and a viable starter in many formats. 

Unless the Seahawks acquire a proven free-agent quarterback, the NFL Draft will be a crapshoot for Smith-Njigba's prospects. Even if they land a good rookie passer, it may take a year or two before Smith-Njigba's production returns to the reliable value we've seen in 2024. 

If you have WR depth and you can sell Smith-Njigba for multiple picks -- one of them at least a second-round pick (check trade calculators and Dan Hindery's trade value charts), it might be the wisest path because there will be a lot of questions about the direction and personnel in Seattle. 

Holding 

If you're holding Smith-Njigba, you're betting on him getting a veteran free-agent quarterback of value and his skills improving to the point that he's Tyler Lockett Part II. That could happen, but you're relying on two factors that could go in the opposite direction than what you're counting on and it makes this choice riskier. 

However, if you're right, Smith-Njigba could become one of the high-volume options in fantasy football and an elite PPR receiver. The risk is that Smith-Njigba doesn't get the veteran QB, the team drafts or signs receivers who can be the primary outside options, the current staff gets fired, and the new one doesn't want to emphasize the slot role.

If this happens, you had a chance to unload Smith-Njigba at WR2-WR3 value but now you're not even getting reasonable offers with him as a WR4. I'm betting he'll remain a viable WR3 as his baseline, but there is a palpable risk his surrounding talent goes away, and for 1-2 years, you see Smith-Njigba become the fantasy Demario Douglas of the Pacific Northwest until Seattle finds more talent. 

Buying

As for buying Smith-Njigba, you're hoping the Seahawks trade Metcalf during the offseason, the coaching staff remains intact, the team drafts a rookie who needs a year or two of acclimation, and Smith-Njigba becomes the production leader while Geno Smith is still under center. 

There's reason to believe this could happen, considering the potential trade for Metcalf we learned about this week. If it happens, you've not only added a player who could have a peak year in 2025, but you could also sell high on him before the end of the season and maximize your profits.

Bottom Line

I'd probably sell. I like Smith-Njigba's talent, but there are a lot of factors that will have to work out exactly right at QB, WRs, and retaining the current staff for Smith-Njigba to develop into a better fantasy player than he is right now. 

Until next week, good luck!

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