"The world is a tragedy to those who feel, but a comedy to those who think."
-- Horace Walpole
I don't know much about old Horace, the 4th Earl of Oxford, but I can relate. One of the funniest things I experienced in the fantasy space occurred on January 6, 2019.
The Anthony Richardson Career Data
I've watched Richardson's nine games in the NFL. Nothing about his performance has me panicking. Analysts, former players, former coaches, and fans are more emboldened than ever to label Richardson as "raw."
I'm firm in my assessment that Richardson is not raw; he's inexperienced, and there's a big difference.
I don't even need to show you any film on Richardson. Doing so will just spark a debate about development potential that, when you boil it down, will tell you whether the people engaged in the debate have enough perspective on the matter at hand.
Let's look at some data from the first 8-9 games (400-500 snaps) of Richardson's career and the careers of three other quarterbacks--three quarterbacks that have endured a ton of hand-wringing about potential injury because of their gifts as runners.
Anthony Richardson's Initial Starts vs. Three Other QBs
| Richardson | A | B | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Snaps | 405 | 560 | 528 | N/A |
| Comp | 99 | 106 | 119 | 197 |
| Attempts | 185 | 187 | 227 | 327 |
| Comp % | 53.50% | 56% | 52.40% | 60% |
| Yds | 1360 | 1308 | 1429 | 2605 |
| Y/Att | 7.35 | 6.99 | 6.29 | 7.97 |
| TDs | 11 | 11 | 10 | 18 |
| TD Rate | 4.89% | 5.88% | 3.41% | 4.55% |
| INTs | 7 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| INT Rate | 3.78% | 2.14% | 3.96% | 3.06% |
| PTDs | 6 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| PTD Rate | 3.24% | 3.74% | 2.20% | 3.36% |
| RTDs | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| RTD Rate | 8.30% | 3.12% | 7.58% | 10.14% |
| Rushes | 60 | 128 | 66 | 69 |
| Rush Yds | 333 | 612 | 490 | 377 |
| YPC | 5.55 | 4.78 | 7.42 | 5.46 |
The first thing I noticed was that there were few significant differences between them. Player C had a significantly higher completion percentage to begin his career and 100 more passing attempts than the next-best player. Still, his overall TD rate (rush/pass) was similar.
Player C is a former MVP with a Super Bowl appearance.
Player B had a much higher yards-per-carry average and a significantly lower average yards per pass attempt. His yards per attempt was the lowest of the four players, and his interception rate was the worst.
Player B is regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in football.
Player A had the highest TD rate, lowest INT rate, lowest rushing TD rate, and lowest yards per carry. He also had the second-highest completion percentage and the highest overall TD rate.
Player A was written off as a running back disguised as a quarterback. Since then, Player A--Lamar Jackson-- is a two-time MVP who is performing at a level that could earn him a third.
Before I reveal Players B and C, let's look at the career numbers of these players after their first 8-9 starts.
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