The Gut Check No.631: Jayden Daniels' Slow-Launch Strategy

The What of the Matter: Is Jayden Daniels For Real?

Jayden Daniels is the second-most productive quarterback in fantasy football after three weeks. The Bengals' game in Week 3 was a coming-out party thrown on a national stage.

Daniels had scintillating moments in Cincinnati, but the game didn't vault him into the fantasy starter tier. Daniels was the No.7 fantasy QB after two weeks, averaging 20.8 points per game despite not throwing a touchdown pass.  

Daniels is earning enormous praise this month. Exactly a decade ago, there was another first-round quarterback with a celebrated college career, a big arm, and mobility who generated even more excitement with his NFL debut. 

Marcus Mariota delivered five passing touchdowns in Week 1. By Week 3, he was the No.7 quarterback in fantasy football. Mariota missed part of the season with an injury but still finished his rookie year as QB16 in points per game average (18). 

A decade and four teams later, Mariota is on IR as one of the Commanders' reserves. 

Thirteen years ago, one of the players I compared stylistically to Jayden Daniels in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio lit up the NFL as a top-five producer at the position as a rookie. He was QB1 after three weeks. That player was Robert Griffin III. 

Injury and dysfunction between Griffin and Mike Shanahan were significant factors that derailed Griffin's development. So was the Commanders' offense relying heavily on schemed plays with limited progression reads. Once opponents figured it out, Griffin didn't overcome his weaknesses as a decision-maker.

It's a forgotten part of the Griffin lore, especially as he's on social media saying Daniels is "Strouding" Caleb Williams' expectations. Griffin is a likable personality, but you would think he'd be emotionally honest with himself about his career trajectory and apply that wisdom to the dangers of short-term, short-sighted buzz. Then again, in today's media environment, that doesn't earn clicks. 

Clicks or not, quarterback development has proven difficult for the NFL. Griffin, Mariota, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew II, and are among the quarterbacks to start hot and fade away once opposing defenses develop game plans to foil them.

Some eventually rebound and prove they can handle a starting NFL gig. Others fade from fantasy memory. 

With that perspective in mind, fantasy GMs have questions. Here are some quick answers for those who don't have time to delve into the details: 

Is Jayden Daniels An Emerging Star? 

He has the tools to develop into one, but history and the Commanders' offense suggest September is a bright spot and not jump too far ahead with his fantasy valuation. 

Is Jayden Daniels Fantasy-Relevant or A Passing Fad?

For at least the next 4-6 weeks, yes, Daniels is relevant. His sample size as an intermediate and vertical decision-maker is too low to project reliably beyond that time frame, but as long as you have a productive backup for your fantasy lineup, you should rely on Daniels until there's reason to bench him. 

Will Opposing Defenses Figure Jayden Daniels Out This Year?

History indicates the answer is yes. Executing solutions productively to stop Jayden Daniels is another story. Expect Daniels to see a small-to-moderate dip in weekly production between Weeks 5-8 as opponents develop game plans to slow the offense based on scouting reports. 

Considering that Washington has thrown the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage 3-4 times more often than the NFL average and Daniels has not thrown a single pass when forced to his left, opposing defenses have potential weaknesses to test. 

If Daniels or the Commanders don't figure out counters to what's coming, we may see a bigger drop between Weeks 10-15.  Still, expect Daniels to remain no worse than a high-upside match-up starter as the year progresses. 

If Defenses Foil Jayden Daniels By Midseason, Can Daniels Rebound?

Based on my pre-draft scouting report of Jayden Daniels, the short answer is yes. The longer answer depends on the flexibility of the Commanders' scheme.

I have my doubts about the Commanders' offense if opposing defenses foil the one-read, scripted plays that don't use a lot of progression reads. This could force Washington into difficult play and game scripts that limit the playbook. 

Jayden Daniels could be forced into pressure-induced mistakes as a thrower and a runner. Even if Daniels struggles as the season unfolds, his skills should give fans reason for optimism as long as he doesn't take excessive punishment and is left on the field to do so without schematic help.