The Gut Check No.629: Film and Fantasy on a Trio of Jaguars

Photo: Imagn Images

The What of the Matter

How much value do Tank Bigsby, Brian Thomas Jr., and Gabe Davis offer fantasy GMs this year? The quick answers:

• Thomas has the most attainable ceiling of starter value of the trio. 
• Bigsby has the greatest volatility of weekly point value in his current role. 
• If Bigsby's role changes due to an Etienne injury, he has the highest fantasy ceiling of the newcomers.
• Davis is most dependent on the collective efforts of his team to get open, but it means he will get the easiest opportunities to thrive. 
• Davis' role could lead to 4-6 weeks of fantasy WR1 production--perhaps half of them as a top-five fantasy receiver. 
• Davis remains a flex because there will be more valleys than peaks. 

The Bottom-Line Fantasy Advice

• Bigsby is not only a high-upside reserve who could lead the Jaguars' backfield this year with an Etienne injury, but he has also shown early signs of acclimation, which should lead to a recurring role in a committee, meaning he could deliver flex value this year. He's a good target as a throw-in when negotiating September deals. 
• Thomas' route running appeared strong enough in Week 1 to consider him a flex value who could emerge as a weekly fantasy WR2 in formats with 12-16 teams. 
• Davis' route running isn't as advanced as Thomas', but he's big, strong, and builds enough speed to match what the Jaguars do with him. He's ideally your lotto ticket in a four- or five-receiver fantasy lineup that can give you weeks of WR1 ceilings. He is also suitable as a lineup's third option if needed, but the volatility could be problematic without a strong squad to buffer the potential low points.

The Why: State of the Jaguars Offense

The Jaguars get lost in the buzz trails of the Texans' emerging offensive juggernaut and the nation witnessing Colts QB Anthony Richardson growing into his superpowers. This translates to the fantasy community's assessment of Jacksonville's offensive talent. 

Beyond Travis Etienne Jr., most Jaguars skill players were not seen as premium draft-day values. This is a young unit, and rapid growth can follow.

Etienne is a good example. He missed his rookie year with a Lis Franc injury, debuted in 2022 as RB16, and jumped to RB4 last year. 

Trevor Lawrence could be poised for a rebound. He had a rough 2023 campaign largely due to poor offensive line play and lackluster performances from multiple skill position talents.

Tank Bigsby earned massive buzz during the summer of 2023, only to make a myriad of mistakes during the regular season and earn a benching. Calvin Ridley's return from suspension was so good that the Jaguars didn't care to keep him. 

The Jaguars' bright spots in the receiving corps were steady veteran Christian Kirk and a pair of renaissance seasons from Evan Engram. Relative to receiving tandems we see in Philadelphia, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Green Bay, neither Kirk nor Engram offers the consistent vertical prowess to stretch opposing coverages to their limits that generate easier targets for Lawrence.  

Although Etienne can run hard for his size and style of play, he's ideally suited for open space. Jacksonville hoped Bigsby could provide the punishing element in the ground game that's optimal for establishing a play-action game with Lawrence operating under center. 

Fast forward to the present, and the Jaguars have renewed hope. They believe Bigsby has acclimated to the league, and they believe their offseason additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis will help them establish this play-action game that makes Lawrence's life easier.