The Gut Check No.633: Buy-Sell-Hold

Buy: Kareem Hunt

Rule of thumb: Effective runners who enter the league without top-end speed remain good runners in the league for a while. Their popularity with their team may wane and the organization moves to the next (cheaper and younger) bright and shiny toy, but they are serviceable when called upon as the lead back or high-volume committee option. 

During the past six seasons, that's been true of Jordan Howard, David Montgomery, LeGarrette Blount, James Conner, Zack Moss, Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Jeff Wilson Jr., D'Onta Foreman, Mark Ingram II, Mike Davis, and Carlos Hyde. 

It's also true of Hunt. What these runners have in common is good footwork, contact, balance, and how to manage risk-reward with the play and the game scenario when the ball is in their hands. 

Hunt's game no longer sizzles, but the reservoir of skill and wisdom shines on most plays. 

Good tight crease runners w/balance have a tool I call foot displacement.

They can take a hit to their leg(s) or execute a jump cut & move both feet away from the contact of the def. Their feet move w/the momentum of the hit, not against it.

Kareem Hunt #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/I5pbzFVmGb

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024

Kareem Hunt shows how to get skinny and maintain a position to sell out in short yardage at the right moment.

Efficient and creative short-yardage mobility. It's vital for all-around RB play. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/QFregZHBrO

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024

The Chiefs have the offensive line, quarterback, and scheme to get the most from Hunt, PPR's RB16 during the past two weeks.  Hunt's likelihood of delivering big-play runs is lower than the hottest names at the position this week, but he has no real holes in the rest of the game. 

You want a runner who can win between the tackles and adjust well to his quarterback as a receiving option when leaking from the backfield. That's Hunt. 

Sell: Tank Bigsby (Hold If You're Strong)

The best summation of Tank Bigsby I saw on Monday morning was from Matt, a reader in Arizona, in response to the video I'm sharing below. 

"Bigsby is getting the pub because of his big, noisy plays, but as you, of course, know, there's an element of craft, nuance, and discipline that separates lead backs from breather backs. Think we still need to see Bigsby show he can do more than run through open gaps." 

Where Tank Bigsby has forays of foolishness as a decision-maker that he could eliminate.

Been this way since Auburn. The corner store is a distraction. Even Reggie Bush figured this out and Tank isn't nearly as dynamic as Reggie was. pic.twitter.com/rIpJZJ9WH7

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 7, 2024

Bigsby's only notable improvement from his Auburn days has been his security of the ball. While that's the development that is keeping him in the running back rotation, it's not making him a running back who is about to render Travis Etienne Jr. irrelevant. 

Bigsby is a great sell-high candidate during the next 2-3 weeks. He has been PPR's RB8 for the past two weeks, and he faces the Bears, Patriots, and Packers during the next three weeks--all teams that are vulnerable to interior running. 

Bigsby isn't a great interior runner as a decision-maker, but when he earns big gaps, he can seduce the public with his determined style, burst, and ability to access cutbacks and bounces outside. He's competent but has some holes in this game that he hasn't addressed. 

Expect Bigsby to remain the hot name and have fantasy analysts taking victory laps on social media for them guiding you through his emergence due to recent utilization and production. 

The context with the most gravity missing from the analysis is that Bigsby is effective against teams that can't stop the interior ground game but non-existent against teams that can't or offenses that build early leads. See for yourself.

It means the Bears and Patriots are Bigsby games. The Packers are vulnerable defensively but have the offense to pull away early, so there's a bigger risk that Bigsby loses viability due to a bad game script. 

If you don't trade Bigsby by Week 8, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, and New York are four defenses during the next seven weeks that will likely generate more favorable game scripts for Travis Etienne Jr. Although Bigsby performed well against the Texans, the Houston offense can force Jacksonville away from the run early in the game. 

The one scenario I recommend holding onto Bigsby is if you have a strong squad and you don't need Bigsby as anything more than a match-up-dependent RB3-Flex. Week 16 is a juicy matchup with the Raiders. Also, the value of these defenses could change as injuries mount, so if you can afford to keep Bigsby on your bench, he could pay off.