The Gut Check No. 632: The Consequences of Mobile QBs

The Konami Code Is Trashing the Passing Game

The age of the mobile quarterback is here. They're the fantasy Konami Code. Draft a quarterback who earns a ton of rushing yards and you have it made in your league. True story -- for now, at least. 

Yet, as more mobile quarterbacks enter the league and become franchise starters, there are signs that these players will limit the fantasy value of their teammates in the passing game. After studying five seasons of quarterback production, it's clear that the more a quarterback runs, the less likely he supports valuable fantasy talent in the passing game. 

Let's back up a bit. How should we define a mobile quarterback? Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Kyler Murray are mobile quarterbacks. However, it's how much the quarterback uses that mobility that matters. 

For this article, a quarterback who gains more than 19 percent of his yardage as a runner during a season was a running quarterback for that season. A quarterback who gains less than 20 percent of his yardage as a runner is a pocket quarterback. 

From 2020-2024, I examined 75 quarterback seasons and how many receivers and tight ends that these quarterbacks supported in the passing game. I also looked at this information through the lens of how much of that quarterback's yardage totals were with his legs. 

It's common sense that the higher the percentage of a quarterback's yardage comes on the ground, the less supportive he is to his teammates in the passing game. Still, I wanted to see where the volume of quarterback rushing yards produces diminishing returns for the passing game. 

Here are the values and totals of fantasy receivers quarterbacks have produced based on the percent of yardage they earned in a season with their legs. The information is based on a 12-team PPR format. Although I've listed each value as "WR," I included tight ends and assigned them the equivalent WR value. 

As you can see, the less a QB ran the better his receivers' fantasy production.

Fantasy Value of Supporting Cast Based on QB Rushing Production

I also counted how many fantasy receivers each quarterback supported in a season based on the percentage of his yards coming as a runner. Again, I included the top 60 fantasy receivers (WR1s-WR5s) in a 12-team PPR format. As you can see the quarterbacks who ran the least, generated the most receivers with fantasy value. 

The Number of Fantasy Receivers Supported In A Season By QBs Based on Rush Yardage Pcts. 

Go ahead, pick the running quarterback, but you better pick the receivers who have a pocket quarterback throwing to them. 

Are Mobile QBs Hurting Passing Offenses?

To a degree they are. Let's clarify this statement though. There are quarterbacks with elite running talent who also can win from the pocket and support fantasy talent in the passing game. 

The problem isn't the type of quarterback entering the NFL, but the desire for NFL owners to force-feed these players into starting lineups. Coaches hate playing rookie quarterbacks, but the pressure for them to comply is enormous and they know if they don't win immediately AND win with the rookie quarterback, they will be fired before that quarterback can develop into a complete passer. 

The best solution thus far has been to simplify the offense and use a scheme that meets the quarterback with where he is and not stretch him to where he'll need to be. This means limiting their ability to adjust plays and make a high volume of progression reasons where they have a role in choosing the receiver and manipulating the coverage. 

Instead, the scheme relies on more schemed plays with limited reads, if there is even more than one read. There are also fewer passes down the field. 

It can generate early success but it's often an inflated result. Defenses eventually compile their scouting reports into game plans that can limit these quarterbacks.

Coaches with these quarterbacks are hoping they can slow-launch their young passer and gradually expand the number of reads they make as defenses catch on. However, this is a gamble that doesn't always pay off because the quarterback isn't ready for those demands. 

The more coaches that are doing this with young quarterbacks so they can win enough games to keep their jobs are now stuck in situations where the quality of quarterback play is lower across the league. As ESPN showed on Tuesday with a terrific piece on the massive decline of passing in the league this year, the caliber of quarterback play is a reason coaches are citing as a significant factor. 

If this QB development strategy continues, we could approach a point where passing remains down and the intent of delivering "exciting QB-centric football" backfires. Based on the steady decrease in yards per game between 2016 to 2014 from 250.9 to 202.8 -- and a significant three-year dip coinciding with more umbrella coverages -- this is coinciding with a change in defensive coverages to confuse the number of starters in the league who are less experience than ever. 

Again, this isn't to say that running quarterbacks are the problem. Jalen Hurts has had seasons as a running quarterback and a pocket quarterback. He has been better as a pocket quarterback. It's about striking the right balance, but that balance comes from development, which is incumbent on both the player and the team willing to exhibit patience. 

Many of these quarterbacks can become excellent pocket passers and field generals with reading coverage. It's whether the NFL will do what it takes to support that growth.  

Fantasy Advice for the Near Future

If a quarterback entering the league is known as a runner, it may be worth drafting them but avoiding their receiving talent until you have a year to assess how their new team will use them. At best, expect no better than WR3 value from that quarterback's best receiver. 

Here are the charts from the past five years that show the top 15 quarterbacks, their percentage of yardage as a runner, and the ranking of their top three receivers and top tight end. The tight end column has the player's rank and his relative rank with receivers (in parenthesis). If these columns are blank, it means there was no one of significant value to list.