The Gut Check No.628: Insanity Predictions

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"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

--Rita Mae Brown

That must be me because this is the column where I take bold swings and strike out repeatedly. I'm talking f--ugly. So f--ugly that I'm not linking to it. But I'll give you the recent lowlights. 

Last Year's Insanity

• Keaontay Ingram earns a Kareem Hunt-like role alongside James Conner. 
• J.K. Dobbins delivers top-five RB fantasy production.
• Dalton Kincaid threatens Mike Ditka's rookie TE production record. 
• The Cowboys' ground game becomes a three-headed committee. 
• Jaleel McLaughlin delivers fantasy starter production. 
• (Tank) Bigsby tanks.
• Justyn Ross becomes the Chiefs WR3 by midseason.
• Chris Brooks leads the Dolphins' ground game.
• The Saints are a top-five offense in 2023.

Compared to the past few seasons, I didn't completely whiff on these calls. Tanking Bigbsy saved me. If I'm being especially hopeful -- or my denial is a manifestation of my insanity -- I might have been a year early on Dobbins, McLaughlin, and the Cowboys' running back stable. 

Kincaid managed one of the 12 best rookie seasons by a tight end in NFL history, but it was Sam LaPorta who nearly topped Ditka's mark. Brooks, McLaughlin, and Dobbins all looked good in limited time. 

It doesn't mitigate the fact that most bold calls are f--ugly if you're truly trying to dig deep rather than making it a vanity column to market yourself next summer.

It's more fun to wade into the darkness. Hit on a bold call that borders on insanity, and it can make a huge difference for your fantasy team. Hit on two, and you're winning championships. Hit on more than two, and you're winning every eligible prize your league offers on the way to becoming a legend.

Last year's bold predictions are keeping the disaster streak alive, but you must have a cornerback mentality with bold calls. So here I am, Charles Dimry, facing Jerry Rice after he has twice rendered me toast, but it's a new play, a new day.

Insanity Call No.1: J.K. Dobbins Delivers An RB1 Season 

You're calling on Dobbins, again?

Go back to the quote at the top and you're beginning to understand this year's theme. 

Dobbins is unproven in the NFL from a stat-boy perspective. Dobbins has never touched the ball enough to predict strong production. He's an injury concern splitting time with old buddy Gus Edwards who is going to rob Dobbins of red-zone touches. 

Blah, blah, blah, blah.

Dobbins never missed a game at Ohio State and touched the ball 796 times in 3 seasons. He suffered a difficult ACL injury that required a cleanup surgery after he rushed back too soon. When he returned, he looked like the same player he was as a rookie in 2020, scoring 9 rushing touchdowns on 134 touches.

Wait, Matt, Dobbins is coming off an Achilles tear. It took D'Onta Foreman years to return to NFL-caliber form, and some argue he isn't the same caliber of back he was at Texas. What insanity does this argument hinge on? 

Admittedly, the basis for my argument is insanity. I believe Dobbins when he says he hasn't felt this good since he was at Ohio State. 

Taking a player's word for his readiness is almost as bad as working with boxing promoter Don King. Still, there's something about Dobbins' NFL journey that has me believing him. 

Dobbins was surly to the media after the ACL tear when he was practicing during the summer and we saw him limping after reps. After the clean-up procedure, Dobbins had a realization about the process of returning to form. 

After that second surgery, he looked better. He looked excellent in the 2023 opener before disaster struck again. 

I want to believe that Dobbins has already had that moment of realization about rehab, so if he's claiming he has never felt better as a pro, I'm in--as insane as it sounds. 

The fact that the pound-it-down-your-throat desires of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are in also adds credence to what would otherwise be insanity. It doesn't hurt that Dobbins' draft-day value was low enough to take the chance. 

Last year, I predicted Dobbins would earn top-five production at the position. While this year's column is Insanity Predictions, let's not go crazy.

Calling Dobbins an RB1--a top-12 producer in fantasy at his position--is at my limits of insanity. 

Dobbins won't be delivering receiving production on par with Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey, but expecting 50-60 receptions isn't outlandish for Dobbins in this offense. I'm projecting 51, just under 4 per game.

The sane side of me who handles my projections and rankings has Dobbins 21st among fantasy RBs in PPR formats if going strictly by my projected data: 214 touches, 1119 yards from scrimmage, and 9 scores. 

We're talking about 215.9 PPR points. My No.12 RB by projections is Kyren Williams at 241.6 PPR points.  The difference is only 1.5 points per game if both players play the entire season. 

That's only 15 yards rushing or an extra 5-yard reception per game for Dobbins. Believing in Dobbins' talent isn't insane. Believing Dobbins will play an entire season is legit insanity. 

I don't care. I can't quit him. I need to see it crash and burn one last time.