Game Strategy

• Over/Under: 48.5
• Spread: Kansas City -1
• Kansas City Implied Team Total: 24.75
• Philadelphia Implied Team Total: 23.75

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

This season's Super Bowl is interesting. It boasts two of the best defenses with narrow options in the passing game. The key to this entire slate is what to do with Saquon Barkley. At $18,000 as a captain, he’s incredibly expensive but clearly has the most likely path to be the highest-scoring player on this slate despite the Chiefs being a slight favorite. The crowd is likely going to be playing Barkley at a 75%+ mark between the captain and flex positions, which could open up some game theory perspective on either choosing to pay up for the captain position or just ignoring him altogether. The goal of a showdown lineup is to build a lineup that fits a certain narrative or game script while also factoring in what other people are doing to create variance, as winning a GPP and then having to share it with hundreds of people greatly limits your expected value of the lineup that you’re building even if your odds of winning may be slightly lower. 

Injury Roundup

Devonta Smith has been limited on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play, but if he did miss, this would likely help A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert more than it would Jahan Dotson. Dotson is on the field for 50%+ of snaps, yet has not made an impact this season. At just $1,600, he would garner some interest but tread cautiously.

Skyy Moore could return from IR as he was a limited participant in Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. It would be a surprise if they activate the former second-round pick, but if they do at minimum price he could be intriguing as they would need to make a roster move to do so.

Captain Considerations

1. Saquon Barkley
2. Jalen Hurts
3. Travis Kelce
4. Xavier Worthy
5. Dallas Goedert
6. A.J. Brown
7. Kareem Hunt

Eagles Showdown Players

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts (Captain or stacked flex only)

Jalen Hurts is an expensive piece at $10,400 as a flex or $15,600 as a captain. From a game theory standpoint, because so much of Hurts’ value comes with his legs and the rushing touchdown upside given his 14 touchdowns this season, it’s negatively correlated to play Hurts as a flex if you have Saquon Barkley as your captain unless Barkley were to catch a touchdown pass which is something that Barkley has not done in his last 11 games. For Hurts, there are two scenarios where you can play him as a flex this week. The first is in a stack if you take A.J. Brown or Dallas Goedert as the captain. This is a fade against Barkley where the Eagles take a more pass-heavy approach, which would be a surprise given recent trends, but Hurts is coming off of a 246-yard passing performance and had a 290-yard performance in his last game of the regular season. With the two weeks off, there’s a chance that whatever ailment he was dealing with is now cured. The second way that you can start Hurts in your flex is a Chiefs stack. By taking Travis Kelce or Xavier Worthy as your captain, the scenario for victory here would be that the Chiefs get out to an early lead and force the Eagles into a pass-heavy approach where Hurts will both throw the ball and scramble. The path for captain success is fairly obvious, Hurts has four multi-rushing touchdown games this season including two three touchdown performances. If he has another one of those types of games, you’re going to want him as your captain. It’s entirely possible this week, given the Chiefs' struggles against mobile quarterbacks as of late, as they’ve allowed 39 rushing yards or more to each of the last four quarterbacks that they’ve faced.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (Captain Only)

This is going to sound crazy, but in the 14 years of playing DFS, I’ve been willing to take risks. Saquon Barkley is a critical decision piece this week for you, and while he’s certainly the top captain on the board, I firmly believe that if you don’t play him in the captain position, you should fade him completely. The reasoning here is pretty straightforward in that he’s going to be nearly 100% rostered, given his 100+ performances in nine of his last ten games. However, he’s had a career-low in receptions this season, has failed to score a touchdown in eight of his 19 games this year, and simply rushing for 100+ yards is not enough to pay off that crazy high price point at $18,000 for a captain and $12,000 for a flex position. Barkley seems relatively binary, either he’s going to have one of that massive 150+ yard rushing days with at least one if not multiple, touchdowns, or he’s going to get right around 100 yards with the rushing touchdowns potentially being cultured by Jalen Hurts. You aren’t gaining anything on the field if you play him at the flex position considering he’s going to be highly rostered at the captain spot. While Kansas City’s run defense has been worse in the playoffs than the regular season, this is still a unit that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs all year.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown(Captain or FLEX)
Devonta Smith (FLEX)
The Eagle's options at the wide receiver position are relatively limited as this is a low-volume passing offense with a narrow route tree when the Eagles choose to throw the ball. In their last game, we saw A.J. Brown have a breakout performance after some early struggles in his first two playoff games of the year. Brown had 96 yards and a touchdown after averaging just 12 yards in their first two games of the playoffs. The floor is low, given the lack of passing attempts from Jalen Hurts, but if there’s a player who has 100+ receiving upside in this game, it is Brown, who has five games over 100 yards this season. The matchup is a difficult one this week as he’ll face off against Trent McDuffie, who has emerged as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL this season. There’s a potential scenario where the Chiefs do everything they can to shut down Saquon Barkley and force the Eagles to throw the ball. If that’s the case, like we’ve seen five times this season, Brown has a 100+ yard upside and could have multiple touchdowns as he’s one of the best deep ball receivers in the NFL.

For Devonta Smith, he hasn’t shown the upside that he had to finish off the regular season. In his last three games of the regular season, Smith had 109 (1 touchdown), 51, and 120 yards (2 touchdowns) and was averaging nine targets per game. Now, throughout the playoffs, he is averaging just four targets and just 40 yards per game. He was limited in practice on both Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury, which is never a great sign, considering the team had a week off last week. He should play, but how healthy he is going to be is likely going to limit his upside this week

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert (Captain or Flex)

The one weak spot that Kansas City has is against the tight ends. On the year, the Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. This is the healthiest that Goedert has been in quite some time, as he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Safety Bryan Cook is a liability in pass coverage, and Goedert has shown that he can be a downfield threat as he’s had a 20-yard catch or longer in each of his last three games. He’s cheap enough that he would allow you to build a very consistent lineup rather than a stars and scrubs approach some of the other captain options would force you into this week.

Chiefs Showdown Players

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes II (FLEX)

Mahomes is an interesting one this week. While he’s likely going to be rostered as a captain by some, the big question for him is how does he win a tournament at the captain spot at a $15,000 salary? The reality is that he would need a game very similar to the Chiefs game in the AFC Championship, where Mahomes ran for two touchdowns against Buffalo. Is it possible? Sure, but there’s also the reality that if the Chiefs get inside the red zone, the Eagles are going to be highly aware of a potential Mahomes run. Mahomes had just two other rushing touchdowns on the season, and while it’s true that he runs more during the playoffs, his last rushing touchdown in the postseason was all the way back in 2021. If you’re going to target a Chiefs player as the captain, it’s more likely that Travis Kelce or Xavier Worthy pay off their salary than Mahomes who is facing the league’s best secondary on a year that he has just three 300+ yard performances.

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt (CPT or FLEX)

If you’re looking for value at the captain position, Kareem Hunt could bring that this week while also being an extremely valuable player at the flex position. He’s priced as if there is still a committee backfield, which, based on the AFC Championship game, is Hunt’s backfield, as he had 17 carries for 64 yards on 58% of the snaps, while Pacheco had a season-low 28% of snaps. What makes Hunt so intriguing is his red-zone usage. He’s unlikely to have a breakaway run this week as he’s no longer that type of running back, but he’s a physical one who is great in between the tackles as he has scored a touchdown in four straight games. If there’s an extra emphasis from the Eagles on a Patrick Mahomes II run in the red zone, this could open up even more opportunities for Hunt this week.

Wide Receivers

Xavier Worthy (CPT or FLEX)
Hollywood Brown (FLEX)
JuJu Smith-Schuster(Low-End Flex)

Rookie Xavier Worthy has established himself as the clear number-one receiver in Kansas City. While he’s yet to have the massive 100+ yard game this season, he does have 40 or more yards in each of his last nine games. Against Buffalo, Worthy was dominant as he had 85 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Worthy has elite speed, running a 4.21 40-yard dash, yet he doesn’t have a catch longer than 26 yards in each of his last seven games. With Andy Reid getting two weeks to come up with schemes to beat this defense, expect the Chiefs to take a deep shot to Worthy in this game, and if he catches a long touchdown, it could give him a strong chance to pay off as a captain.

Hollywood Brown, in his four games back from injury, has yet to have a breakout performance, as he has 45, 46, 0, and 35 yards. However, what’s encouraging is that because of DeAndre Hopkins's snap count reduction, Brown has seen his snaps increase significantly as he has been on the field for 65% of snaps throughout the postseason. Brown, at this point, maybe the Chief's most complete receiver, and the extra week off should help him get acclimated to an offense that, because he missed so much time, likely is going to take time for him to become acclimated to.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is a cheap punt play this week. At $2,000, you’re getting a player who was on the field for 58% of snaps against Buffalo, and while he’s primarily been used as a deep threat, he did catch 31 and 29-yard passes last week. The floor is zero for Smith-Schuster, but if he’s able to get close to 50 yards this week, he’s cheap enough that you can fit him into your lineup.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (Captain or Flex)

Playoff Kelce is a real thing, as the receiver had his 14-game playoff streak of 70 or more yards snapped against the Bills in their last game. However, for the Chiefs to compete this week, they’re going to once again need Kelce to have a dominant performance, as we’ve seen so many times throughout the playoffs. With the Eagles having one of the best secondaries in the NFL, it’s likely that the Chiefs are going to challenge third-year undrafted free agent Reed Blankenship, who has had a great season, but Philadelphia has faced one of the easiest tight end schedules in the NFL this season. Against Washington, Zach Ertz had a massive game against this defense in the NFC Championship game, as he had 11 receptions for 104 yards. Mark Andrews, who was the best tight end that they’ve faced, had six receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown, while in the same game, Isaiah Likely added 38 yards and a touchdown. At $13,500 as a captain or $9,000 as a flex, you’re getting a slight discount due to the floor that Kelce has, but the reality is that a slate this big floor doesn’t really matter. It’s all about the upside if you take a player at the captain position, you’re going after their upside as you’re almost certainly going to need the optimal captain in your lineup to have a chance to win this week.

Under the Radar

Noah Gray (FLEX)

If you wanted to buy into the narrative of the Eagles potentially struggling to cover the Chiefs tight ends, but want to fade Travis Kelce due to popularity, Noah Gray could be an interesting player to target. At $2,800, he’s firmly in the cheap punt territory that allows you to spend elsewhere on your roster, and this is a player who is seeing about 58% of the snaps throughout the year. While he has yet to have a significant role in the playoffs, Gray did have three games in which he had over 50 yards, and did score five touchdowns this season including two multi-score games.

Skyy Moore (FLEX)

Keep an eye on Skyy Moore this week at minimum price. The receiver was a limited participant at practice on both Wednesday and Thursday despite being on Injured Reserve since Week 6. If the Chiefs were to activate him, it clearly means that they plan on using him in some capacity as otherwise why waste the roster spot potentially having to make a roster move right before the Super Bowl? At just $200, he’s a player who if he plays may only have a couple of catches, but at that price point could allow for roster flexibility.

Kickers and Defenses

While in theory, the kickers should be viable this week as both Jake Elliott and Harrison Butker have been two of the better kickers over the last several seasons and both the Eagles and Chiefs have elite defenses, there are some concerns. Butker has not been the normal automatic player that we have become accustomed to over the last several seasons. Butker is just 2-5 from 50+ this year, with a long of just 53 compared to having a 60+ yarder in each of his last two seasons. Dealing with injury throughout the year, we have to wonder whether he is fully healthy from the knee injury that cost him four games this season and, if he is fully healthy, whether he is allowing that to mentally impact him. For Jake Elliott, this is a scenario where the Eagles are going to go for it on fourth down on anything close. So, not only are you going to need to get an offense stopped in field goal range, but you’re also going to need it to be 4^th and long multiple times in order for Elliott to pay off. If this is a defensive struggle of a game, it could lean more towards field goals, but even then the Eagles know that field goals are not going to be good enough to beat this Chiefs team.

Both defenses are viable this week. For the Chiefs, it is going to be entirely the attempt to get pressure on Jalen Hurts who was sacked seven times against the Rams in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Kansas City’s pass rush has been elite in the two games thus far throughout the playoffs as they have ten sacks in their first two games. While the Eagles offensive line is elite, Jalen Hurts has a tendency to hold onto the ball looking for the deep throw. On the Eagles side of the ball, they’ve been outstanding with turnovers throughout this postseason. The Eagles have an astounding ten turnovers in their three playoff games and are expected to test the offensive line which has holes in it this week with a pressure based scheme under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been a liability, while they’ve had to move left guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle due to the poor play of D.J. Humphries and Wanya Morris.