If you're reading this, it's likely because the job isn't finished. While your friends celebrate titles or continue to lament lineup decisions, those difficult decisions are only beginning for you. For many, it's the epilogue of the fantasy season. For you, it's championship week. Week 18 isn't for the faint of heart. The decision-making process gets even more complicated. Beyond matchups, snap share, or other quantifiable metrics, it's now your job to weigh the subjective. How motivated is a team? Are they resting their starters? Are there incentives or NFL records hanging in the balance? The playing field shifts dramatically.
I know I did an excellent job of keeping you calm just now.
You're here for a reason, though. You drafted well. You made the right lineup calls. You probably even made a few great trades or landed a waiver wire star. Don't make Week 18 bigger than it needs to be. In the words of Jalen Hurts, keep the main thing, the main thing. I'll do my best to help you out.
Quarterback is where you might have to get a little unconventional. Starting someone like Drew Lock in a fantasy championship might feel sacrilegious. Remember, though, this isn't a normal week. Let's take a look at Lock, Jared Goff, and Drake Maye.
Week 18 Sit-Start Decisions
QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
First and foremost, If you roster Jared Goff heading into a Week 18 championship, congratulations. You're one of the few people in your league who won't need to answer the "How motivated will they be?" question before locking in your starting quarterback. I can't remember a Week 18 game with similar implications to this Vikings and Lions matchup. The winner gets the No. 1 seed and a bye. The loser gets the five-seed and a road game in the Wild Card round. Some consolation prize for a 14-win season. In any case, Detroit is playing its starters. Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson will do all they can to win.
Goff is the QB6 on the season, heading into a matchup against a Vikings defense he dropped 25.1 fantasy points on in Week 6. To Minnesota's credit, the defense has allowed a stingy 14.9 points per game this season to fantasy quarterbacks. That's the third-lowest mark in the league. While they tightened things up against Jordan Love and the Packers in Week 17, the Vikings surrendered an average of 16.8 fantasy points to Caleb Williams and Geno Smith. Inversely, Detroit's defense has allowed 34.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over its last three games. This game has the makings of a shootout. Goff and Sam Darnold should both reward fantasy owners.
Recommendation: Start Goff
QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots
It seems like the Patriots have their guy. Since his first start in Week 6, Drake Maye is the QB14, with four top-12 finishes. There have been ebbs and flows -- his finishes as a starter range from QB7 to QB27. Still, we're talking about a rookie quarterback on a 3-13 team. As it pertains to his fantasy prospects in Week 18, Maye and the Patriots get a Bills team already locked into the second seed. Based on how Sean McDermott said he'll handle Josh Allen, don't anticipate Buffalo's starters seeing many reps. That should inspire confidence in the former third-overall pick in this spot. With their starters, the Bills allowed 24.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last three games. That's the fourth-highest mark in the NFL over that span.
Maye's finished with fewer than five rushing attempts once since Week 12. He's averaging 5.2 carries for 32.2 yards in the five games he's played since then. This is a spot for a talented young quarterback to excite a fanbase heading into an important offseason against a good division rival. Whether Patriots fans want to see a win, though, is another story.
Recommendation: Start Maye
QB Drew Lock, New York Giants
There was plenty to unpack from that Drew Lock-led Giants win over the Colts in Week 17. Before you close this page, I won't be discussing that here. I'll simply say that's a level of anguish I wouldn't even wish on Giants fans. The draft implications of their Week 17 win over the Colts are well-documented. Based on the reaction, two things have seemingly become clear. The Giants want to win games, but the fans would prefer they didn't, even if that win would come against Philadelphia and Saquon Barkley.
Based on the sentiment of some reporters out of Philadelphia, Barkley's status for the game remains in question. Even with the NFL rushing record in the balance, the Eagles gain nothing with a win in terms of seeding. If that's the approach with other starters, Lock could also see a barebones defense. At first glance, his 34.4 fantasy points against the Colts in Week 17 might inspire confidence. His 13.4 points per game average in the previous three games since Week 13 might spell an anomaly.
The Eagles defense is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Vic Fangio's group just held Cooper Rush and Trey Lance (!) to a whopping 6.2 points combined in a game where reserves got some run. Despite a big performance in Week 17, Lock's history doesn't instill much confidence against a superior opponent.
Recommendation: Sit Lock
As you traverse the Week 18 minefield, check out where Jared Goff and others check in on our Week 18 rankings. Whatever you do, I'm sure it'll be the right call. Stay the course, and go be great.