It all comes down to this. All the agonizing matchup calls, the inevitable bench explosions, and the Monday Night Football sweats have culminated in one final week. For those of you at the end of the road, take it all in. As Dan Campbell put it, this might be your only shot.
Much like the players on the field making or breaking our dreams of fantasy immortality, none of us are 100 percent. The journey takes a little piece of all of us. While you might feel inclined to celebrate your semifinal win -- there's a chance you clinched the win less than 24 hours ago -- the holiday schedule will keep those proceedings brief. It's already time to shift your focus to the final matchup. Before I dive in on some lineup advice, though, I guess I should note that some of you might have a two-week final. It might be even worse than that. Some of you might have a commissioner who likes to push his league mates to the brink and decided to schedule your championship for Week 18.
If you're one of those people, ignore the pep talk, I guess. You've still got another week. Maybe find a new league, too.
I'm kidding. We like you guys, too.
Okay, let's get to what you're all here for. If you're weighing your options at running back, Tony Pollard, Brian Robinson Jr, Isiah Pacheco, and Kareem Hunt are all intriguing names.
Week 17 Sit-Start Decisions
RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard produced mixed results in his first season with the Tennessee Titans. He's currently the RB19 in PPR scoring formats, according to our Footballguys stats tool. From that perspective, he's been a middle-of-the-pack RB2 for fantasy managers, with a couple of big games along the way. Speaking of big games, one of Pollard's three 100-yard rushing efforts came in Week 14 against the Jaguars. He handled 21 carries on 63 percent of the snaps. He didn't score in that game, but he caught his two targets for 22 yards and finished with 14.4 PPR fantasy points.
Pollard's status will be worth monitoring leading up to Sunday. He missed practice last week leading up to Tennessee's Week 16 matchup with the Colts. While Tony Pollard still played, Tyjae Spears took over 61 percent of the team's snap share. Depending on how much he can practice this week, the backfield reps might be split more evenly than in Week 14. It's also worth noting Spears saw six touches in the red zone in Week 16. Pollard finished with zero.
Jacksonville's done an effective job of limiting opposing running backs over the last two weeks. Over that span, the Jaguars have surrendered an average of 62 rushing yards on 17.5 carries. They've also given up three rushing touchdowns, which could lead to opportunities for Spears and Pollard. Running back targets were an issue last week against Las Vegas, though. Ameer Abdullah and Alexander Mattison caught a combined nine passes on 13 targets for 76 yards. That seems to spell receiving chances for Spears. Given the uncertainty around Tony Pollard's health, it might be best to look at other options for your fantasy championship.
Recommendation: Sit Pollard
RB Brian Robinson Jr, Washington Commanders
Despite contributing two of his team's five turnovers, Brian Robinson Jr was on the winning side of Week 16's divisional tilt with the Philadelphia Eagles. He and his fellow running backs didn't do much. On 10 carries, Robinson managed 24 yards. To be fair, Philadelphia allows the second-fewest points to fantasy running backs, and the Commanders trailed for most of the game. Still, teams that started Robinson in Week 16 likely didn't live to tell the tale.
If you're one of the lucky few, though, it might be best to continue fading Robinson. Atlanta's 21.1 fantasy points per game allowed to running backs is the ninth-lowest total in the league. To make matters worse, the Falcons haven't allowed a single running back to rush for over 75 yards since Week 6. There's a window for Robinson to produce, however. Over their last two games, the Falcons are allowing an average of eight catches for 61.5 yards to opposing running backs. Robinson has seen three targets out of the backfield in each of the last two games.
With Austin Ekeler on the shelf, Robinson has seen the majority of snaps out of the Washington backfield. The role, however, likely won't be enough for significant production given the matchup.
Recommendation: Sit Robinson
RBs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City backfield doesn't look to have a workhorse. That doesn't mean there isn't fantasy value in the members of the committee. Since rejoining the team in Week 4, Kareem Hunt has done what he can to fill the void of starter Isiah Pacheco. With Pacheco now back in the fold, though, Hunt continues to occupy a productive role. In Week 16, Hunt paced the Kansas City backfield in snaps, owning a 43 percent share. While that isn't a massive number, Carson Steele and Samaje Perine now mix into the split, capping each share. The role led to three red zone touches for Hunt. Pacheco, for reference, saw just one. Passing work won't be guaranteed for Pacheco or Hunt, especially with Perine catching three passes for 50 yards in Week 16. Still, Hunt caught both of his targets for 24 yards last week.
The Steelers are coming off back-to-back matchups against Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, respectively. While they limited Barkley to 65 yards on 19 carries, Henry had his way to the tune of 162 yards on 24 carries. It's a formidable group that gets the benefit of not playing against an Offensive Player of the Year contender for the first time since Week 14. They also haven't surrendered a rushing touchdown to a running back since Chase Brown scored in Week 13 or a receiving touchdown to a back since Rico Dowdle in Week 5.
If you're in an absolute bind and need to turn to the Chiefs backfield, Hunt might be the option due to his red zone usage. Just keep in mind that no Chiefs running back has seen a snap share larger than 46 percent since Week 13. This usage seems to be working for Andy Reid, even if it won't work for fantasy managers.
Recommendation: Lean Hunt
For any of your other close calls and to see where Tony Pollard and others rank, check out our Week 17 rankings. I hope the next time we talk, it's as fantasy champions.