This is it - championship week. There's only one unwrapped present beneath your fantasy Christmas tree. And you want to know if that lump in the bottom of your stocking (that you hung by the chimney with care) is fantasy gold -- or fantasy coal. Let's see what Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. plan to bring you, in hopes that your fantasy championship soon will be there.
Week 17 Start-Sit Decisions
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
All Joe Mixon wants for Christmas is to avoid another hip-drop tackle. Mixon suffered his first of the season in Week 2 and sat out the next three games recovering. Then, from Weeks 7-13, Mixon went on a tear. In that seven-game stretch, he was the overall RB2, posting five 100-yard games and nine total touchdowns, averaging 24 touches/game. After his Week 14 Bye, Mixon returned against Miami and was treated to an encore hip-drop tackle in the second quarter, courtesy of Jordyn Brooks. Mixon's snap counts have dropped 25 percent in the two games since.
The 10-5 Baltimore Ravens come to NRG Stadium in Week 17, bringing their seventh-stingiest defense vs. running backs with them. Both teams have already clinched a playoff berth. Houston has secured a first-round bye.
Baltimore is a four-point favorite on the road in a game projected to feature 47 total points. The Ravens have more to play for, as they are tied with Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North and are on the short end of the tiebreaker.
It's not likely that Mixon will return to a full workload this week, as he's still recovering from his Week 15 ankle injury, and the Texans already know they are in the playoffs. Expect modest production for the third consecutive week, though still enough to keep him in your lineups as a flex play.
Bottom line: slightly tarnished Fantasy Gold (Start)
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
'Tis the season for a Christmas feast for the Tampa Bay backfield. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are looking to reprise their Week 13 lighting up of the Carolina Panthers' league-worst run defense (where they combined for 36 carries, 228 yards, and 1 rushing touchdown).
Sure, Irving has been the more productive back in four of the past five games, but White has averaged 14 touches/game over that span and put up mid-RB2 PPR numbers.
Carolina is 1-5 in road games, is out of playoff consideration, and travels to Raymond James Stadium in sticky Tampa (83 percent humidity) for a Sunday outdoor contest, which has a forecast of 40 percent chance of rain at game time.
Tampa is an eight-point favorite in one of the highest projected game totals of Week 17, which should allow Carolina to cement its grip on last place vs. the run.
Irving has had ongoing issues with his hip and back, so there is solid incentive for the Bucs to gift White an RB3-sized portion of the ground attack pie.
Bottom line: Fantasy Gold (Start)
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
The good news is that rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. has seen 70 percent of the running back snaps over the past four weeks, put up RB2 numbers in three of those weeks, and sits firmly atop the Giants' backfield depth chart. The bad news is that he aggravated an ankle injury during last week's blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons, will need to mesh with a new quarterback in Week 17 (Tommy DeVito), gets to play outdoors at MetLife Stadium in 40-degree temperatures with 70 percent chance of rain, and it's unlikely the Giants will want to ruin their perfect 0-8 home record this week versus the Indianapolis Colts.
The Giants are on a ten-game losing streak. They are the only franchise with fewer than three wins on the season. The overall No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft is clearly in their sights. Vegas favors the Colts by more than a touchdown in the 4th-lowest combined point matchup of Week 17 (40.5). There aren't a lot of projected fantasy points in the forecast, and there's reasonable uncertainty as to whether Tracy will even be on the field enough to collect them.
Bottom line: Fantasy Coal (Sit)
Final Thoughts
As we get closer to game time, be sure to check out the latest Week 17 rankings from the Footballguys team of experts to see where Joe Mixon and the others are projected to perform. These rankings are customizable to your league's roster and scoring settings.
Listen to Al Davis. He's rooting for you: "Just Win, Baby!"
And may all your fantasy futures be bright.
