It's finally here. The 2024 NFL season has flown by, and the fantasy championship week is somehow already upon us. Congrats if you've made it to the big game, whether it's been due to good luck, savvy roster management, or likely a bit of both. Now you're just one more win away from eternal glory!
Week 17 Sit-Start Decisions
Are you nervous about CeeDee Lamb's shoulder injury tanking your championship run? Or maybe you're uncertain about starting the Jets wide receivers this week with Aaron Rodgers likely not 100 percent healthy with an MCL sprain. If so, here are a few wide receiver options that might just be the fantasy heroes to plug in to bring home the title.
Making the correct sit-start decisions in the fantasy championships requires understanding whether you need floor or ceiling outcomes based on your opponent's lineup and properly weighing late-season changes to various offenses, injury risk, and defensive matchups. After all, name value means little after 16 weeks. It's all about which players can produce enough fantasy points this week to bring home a coveted title.
WR Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
The peripherals for Jauan Jennings haven't been bad these last few games, but alas, the fantasy output just hasn't been there to match. Since the 49ers came off their bye in Week 10, Jennings has averaged an extremely strong 94 percent routes run rate and a 28 percent target share. However, despite that, Jauan Jennings has hit double-digit PPR fantasy points in just three of those seven games.
But upon closer inspection, two of the dud outings over the last month at the Bills and against the Rams were impacted by inclement weather. Last week's matchup at Miami was also a difficult one, as the Dolphins' pass defense has been above average in dropback expected points added (EPA) allowed per play this year. On top of that, Jennings drew a challenging matchup against Jalen Ramsey, who didn't allow Nico Collins a single reception the week prior (both of Collins's touchdowns in that game came away from Ramsey).
The Lions are a much more favorable matchup, especially with the 49ers at home with fair weather forecasted for Monday night. Detroit's defense played well to open the season, but a slew of recent injuries to their front seven and secondary have devastated their pass defense. Over the last month, the Lions rank fourth-worst in dropback EPA allowed per play, and they've allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over that span.
It's very possible that poor showings by Jauan Jennings over the last two games have already eliminated your fantasy team from the playoffs. But if you survived those duds, don't falter now. Start Jennings one more time in the fantasy championships. The over/under for Detroit at San Francisco on Monday night is currently 50.5 total points, the highest of any game in Week 17. And with the Lions favored by four points on the road, expect the 49ers to need to pass the ball. Jauan Jennings projects for a huge bounceback and could be the fantasy MVP when it counts the most.
Recommendation: Start Jennings as a high-ceiling WR2
WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
It's Christmas week, so it's only fitting that we're once again turning to Rudolph to save the day. No, not the red-nosed reindeer. It could be time for Mason Rudolph to shine for fantasy teams, depending on Calvin Ridley in the title game.
Since Tennessee traded away DeAndre Hopkins prior to Week 8, Will Levis has started and finished five games compared to three for Rudolph. In those five games with Levis, Ridley has averaged 4.6 receptions for 68 yards on 8.0 targets per game. In Rudolph's three starts, Ridley's per-game averages increased to 6.0 receptions for 98 yards on 9.3 targets. Even excluding the massive garbage-time stats in the blowout loss to Detroit, Ridley has averaged slightly higher yards per game with Rudolph under center than with Levis. These are certainly small sample sizes, but there's one more glaring reason to start Ridley in the fantasy championship week.
You see that one NFL logo all the way to the far left of the chart? That's how bad the Jaguars' pass defense has been in 2024 compared to the rest of the league. Jacksonville has given up 26.4 points per game, the fourth-most in the NFL, and they've allowed a league-worst 263 passing yards per game to opponents this season.
There's some risk of this being a lower-scoring game, and the Titans may not need to pass as much favored by one point on the road. Still, Ridley had seven receptions for 59 yards on 12 targets the last time these two teams met in Week 14 with Levis under center, and he should manage similar (if not better) numbers with Rudolph this week.
Recommendation: Start Ridley as a boom/bust WR3
WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. played well in his NFL debut last week at home against the Giants. In that game, Darnell Mooney saw a hefty 23 percent target share, slightly higher than his season-long average of 22 percent. And even though Drake London missing a few snaps late due to a hamstring injury played a factor, it was reassuring after a zero-point outing in Week 15 that Mooney tied London for a team-high five receptions and led the Falcons in receiving with 82 yards.
Mooney managed to hit those 13.2 PPR fantasy points even on a day when Atlanta limited their rookie quarterback to just 27 pass attempts in a blowout win over New York. It made sense for them to be more balanced playing from ahead, as the Falcons have done all season. Atlanta's offense has a negative five percent Dropback Rate Over Expected (DBOE) on the year and a low 28 percent pass rate when leading by four or more points compared to a 54 percent pass rate when trailing or in close games.
Unlike when the Falcons led all game against the Giants this past Sunday, they could need Penix to throw a bit more in his second start on the road at Washington. The Commanders are favored by four points at home this week, so there should be more target volume to go around for Mooney in this game, especially if Atlanta were to fall behind early.
Even with London expected to play, that should translate to a fairly safe PPR floor and potentially high ceiling for Mooney in fantasy. Mooney remains a somewhat risky flex play given that we've only seen one competent start from Penix thus far, and it was against a Giants team that's given up on this season. Still, there's unknown upside for both London and Mooney if their rookie quarterback can shine in his first primetime start on Sunday Night Football.
Recommendation: Start Mooney as an upside flex
More Week 17 Sit-Start Help
If you're struggling with other tough sit-start decisions for the fantasy championship week, check out our customized rankings to see where Jauan Jennings and the others stack up. Footballguys has tiered rankings for each offensive skill position based on your league's scoring settings and even highlights your rostered players.
Best of luck in the fantasy championships! It's time to bring home the title!
