Wow. The next round of fantasy football playoffs is upon us. As one of our treasured Footballguys subscribers, you likely advanced and are heading toward the championship ring. Your lineup decisions for Week 16 will be excruciating. Some of the hottest quarterback names across the NFL include Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love. I will walk you through these options and determine if they are a Tootsie's Pick to start or sit.
QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
The story of Jared Goff getting cast aside from the Los Angeles Rams and shipped off to the Detroit Lions is one for the history books. Everyone counted him out. In tandem with coach Dan Campbell, Goff proved the naysayers wrong by leading the Lions to the NFC North division title in 2023. The team is positioned to secure that again this year. Let's take a closer look at Goff's stats at this point last year. After Week 15, he had a 67.1 completion percentage, 3723 passing yards, and 26 passing touchdowns. The Lions had a record of 10-4 then. Comparing that to this year, Goff now has a 71.4 completion percentage, 3759 passing yards, and 30 passing touchdowns. The Lions are currently 12-2. Goff has gotten even better.
This coming Sunday, the Lions will square off against division rival, the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, averaging 13.14. In the Week 13 matchup between these two teams, Goff had 16.94 fantasy points in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. However, after scoring an astonishing 41.1 fantasy points last week against Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills, Goff is on a heater. There's no slowing Goff down. This week's game is expected to be high-scoring, with the Vegas point total set at 48. With running back David Montgomery out for the season, Goff will need to rely on the passing attack even more with his arsenal, which includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. Goff and the Lions have their eyes set on the Super Bowl. That's not a quarterback to sit.
Tootsie's Pick: Start
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
In the same matchup this Sunday, we have quarterback Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears. Drafted the 1.01 in the 2024 NFL Draft, there were high hopes for what Williams and the Bears could accomplish this season. Despite a wide receiver room that includes DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, Williams has been inconsistent in fantasy production. His fantasy PPR scoring has ranged from 7.32 to 26.90 this season. To further drive this point home, in last week's game against the Minnesota Vikings, Williams put up just 9.94 points. In the Week 12 outing, he produced 26.90 against this same team.
Following the tough loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, Coach Matt Eberflus was fired. Since then, William's passing yardage has been down the last two games (134 and 191). The organization is in chaos and hasn't been conducive for a rookie quarterback to thrive. Week 15 was the eighth consecutive loss for the Bears. There was a moment in last week's game where the camera panned to Williams on the sideline bench, writhing and looking physically and mentally defeated. Week 16 in the fantasy football playoffs is not the time to trust Williams-- especially not a disheartened Caleb Williams.
Tootsie's Pick: Sit
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
In keeping with our discussion of NFC North quarterbacks, let's move on to Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love. With a record of 10-4, it's hard to believe that the Green Bay Packers are ranked third in their division. The NFC North is significantly the strongest division in the NFL this season, with the Packers still in the hunt for the playoffs. Love has averaged 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game this season with a total of 2,953 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. Not to mention, Love has been improving his performance, resulting in zero interceptions in the last four games. Ranked seventh in Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) at 66.3, Love even surpasses Jared Goff at 65.6, Jalen Hurts at 65.4, and Patrick Mahomes II at 64.6. QBR is a metric that takes into account multiple play types involving the quarterback position. It then adjusts those against the strength of defense faced.
Heading into Monday night's game at Lambeau Field against the New Orleans Saints, the Packers are heavily favored to win. Love is primed for success with an embarrassment of riches in his receiving corps that includes playmakers like Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs. Because the Saints aren't used to playing in cold weather conditions, Love and his crew should easily get their 11th win and continue chasing their playoff dreams. For Week 16, Love is a reliable start in superflex leagues.
Tootsie's Pick: Start
It's Time to Win
That wraps up my discussion of three quarterbacks: Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love and whether they are a Tootsie's Pick to start or sit in Week 16. As you evaluate your tough decisions ahead, consult our customizable rankings here at Footballguys.
Congratulations on advancing to the next round of playoffs! You made it this far. Take it all the way.
