Each passing winter week brings us ever closer to the coveted fantasy championships. Consider yourselves lucky if you've made it thus far, whether it's been due to luck, good fantasy management, or likely a combination of both.
Week 16 Sit-Start Decisions
If you're reading about Week 16 sit-start decisions today, then you've been marked safe from one of the many 30-plus point performances in Week 15 from the likes of Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, and more.
Savvy sit-start decisions in the fantasy semi-finals require forgetting about what a player did or didn't do last week and understanding whether you need floor or ceiling outcomes based on your opponent's lineup. After all, name value means little in Week 16. It's all about who can produce enough points to advance your team to the fantasy championships next week.
WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Speaking of forgetting what a player did or didn't do last week, Cooper Kupp's big, fat zero in Week 15 underscores the significance of securing a first-round playoff bye. However, if you lived to tell the tale, Kupp's down game also highlights the importance of having a short memory in fantasy football. The continuous deluge certainly played a factor last Thursday night. Beyond the weather conditions, the 49ers' familiarity with Sean McVay's scheme and San Francisco's excellent zone coverage with Fred Warner leading the charge also impacted Cooper Kupp's lack of production.
Perhaps those concerns should've been more prominently discussed last week, but Cooper Kupp's Week 15 performance shouldn't have much bearing on whether fantasy managers sit or start him in the fantasy semi-finals. There isn't an injury that should limit Kupp in this coming game, nor was there a sudden change in usage due to poor performance. Although Kupp saw a season-low three targets against the 49ers for the above reasons, he still had a strong 83 percent routes run rate.
On top of that, the Rams are now very much in the driver's seat to win the NFC West following the Seahawks' loss to the Packers on Sunday night. This is a motivated team with a great passing matchup against the Jets this week, who've been a bottom-five pass defense in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play since their bye. Despite the zero points last week, Cooper Kupp remains a fantasy WR2 for the fantasy semi-finals with a fairly high floor and ceiling. His usage has been consistent all year, and Cooper Kupp has just two games with fewer than 10 PPR points in nine healthy games this season.
Recommendation: Start Kupp
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Unlike Kupp, there is significant lingering concern about Waddle after a similar zero-point outing in Week 15. Waddle didn't play in the second half of Miami's loss to Houston after he suffered a knee injury, which Adam Hutchinson believes to be an MCL sprain. While early reports indicate that Waddle avoided a major injury and won't need surgery, he may still miss this week.
Moreover, the Dolphins' playoff hopes are already dead. There's little reason for Miami to risk one of their core offensive players aggravating an injury in a lost season. There are multiple levels of risk in starting Waddle in fantasy this week. Even if he were to play against the 49ers, it'd be difficult to trust Waddle to play effectively, as he is likely not 100 percent healed from the knee sprain. In addition to potentially limited snaps and/or effectiveness, given the injury, the Dolphins could shut him down early if the game got out of reach. And finally, the silver lining to Waddle's injury is that Mike McDaniel can allow rookie Malik Washington to showcase his potential. Even if Waddle can play, Washington could play more this week to prove himself and get some snaps under his belt to develop.
There are better options than Waddle, even for fantasy managers desperate for wide receiver help this week. Widely available alternatives include Jalen McMillan, Adam Thielen, the aforementioned Washington as a direct backup to Waddle, as well as the Green Bay Packers wide receivers, who we'll discuss next.
Recommendation: Sit Waddle even if active
WRs Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers' wide receiver room has been a quagmire for fantasy all season. In all fairness, though, Matt LaFleur did try to warn us when he stated back in August that the Packers have "a bunch of" No. 1 wide receivers. That said, the return of Doubs from concussion protocol this past week at least cleared up the picture a little. With Doubs back, Dontayvion Wicks reverted to just a 36 percent routes run rate, helping narrow down fantasy-relevant Packers wide receivers by process of elimination.
Since Green Bay's Week 10 bye, Doubs has played most of three games and missed two due to the concussion. Although it's a small sample size, in these three recent games with Doubs, Watson has been the most consistent target earner with a 21 percent target share. In those same games, Doubs has averaged a 19 percent target share and Reed 17 percent. Even more concerning for Reed is that his average depth of target (aDOT) dipped from 6.8 yards in the two weeks without Doubs to just 3.7 yards with Doubs active.
The Saints' pass defense has been carved up in 2024, but they've actually been better since their bye these last three weeks. In particular, nickelback Ugo Amadi has been covering the slot fairly well, which makes Reed an even scarier sit-start decision this week. Without the deep targets he saw early in the season, Reed is now just a touchdown-dependent WR4. Given his consistent target share, Watson has the highest weekly floor as a WR3, and his high aDOT gives him a high weekly ceiling as well. Doubs likewise has a high weekly ceiling, given his higher aDOT, but he's also been somewhat dependent upon finding the end zone, which makes him a boom-bust flex option.
Recommendation: Start Watson (high-floor/ceiling WR3), start Doubs (boom-bust flex), sit Reed (touchdown-dependent WR4)
More Week 16 Sit-Start Help
If you're wrestling with other difficult sit-start decisions for the fantasy semi-finals, take a look at our customized rankings to see where Cooper Kupp and the others stack up. Footballguys has tiered rankings for each offensive skill position based on your league's scoring settings and even highlights your rostered players.
Best of luck in the fantasy semi-finals!
