We few, we happy few, we band of brothers. For he or she today that sheds his or her fantasy tears with me shall be my brother or sister. Congratulations are in order for those of you reading this, for you've made it into the fantasy playoffs! Either that, or you're a real sicko reading about Week 15 sit-start decisions just for fun (please seek help).
Week 15 Sit-Start Decisions
Even though there are still a few perilous weeks ahead before scaling the summit of fantasy championship glory, pat yourselves on the back for having made it this far. Now, the real tests begin.
Shrewd sit-start decisions in the fantasy playoffs require forgetting about players' draft capital from way back in August, ignoring name value, and understanding whether you need floor or ceiling outcomes based on your opponent's lineup. After all, advancing in the fantasy playoffs is as much a psychological game as it is analytical.
WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Worthy's 76 percent route rate, 15 percent target share, and 11.1 average depth of target (aDOT) on the year are all strong underlying metrics that indicate a high weekly ceiling. Unfortunately, despite that usage, Xavier Worthy has scored double-digit PPR points in just six of 13 games, which could make him a tough sit-start decision for some fantasy managers this week. Surprisingly enough, Patrick Mahomes II shoulders quite a bit of blame for this. His 35.3 percent deep ball completion rate ranks just 23rd among quarterbacks this season, and Mahomes has missed the speedy rookie on multiple downfield throws that would've resulted in long touchdowns.
Still, there's reason for optimism this week, even with Mahomes's downfield inaccuracy woes. After having allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL last season (164.7), Cleveland has given up a league-average 215.3 passing yards per game in 2024, and they just placed starting cornerback Greg Newsome II on IR. And while the Browns still rank second in pass rush win rate, their secondary has allowed big plays due to broken coverages and poor tackling, most recently a 93-yard touchdown to Marvin Mims Jr. in Week 13.
Even with Mahomes spreading the ball around, Xavier Worthy has had an impactful role and has averaged a 16 percent target share over the last four weeks. It's hard to completely trust him, but the rookie projects to be a solid PPR WR3 start against the Browns. Worthy has a fair PPR floor and a high ceiling as well this week if he and Mahomes can finally connect on a long touchdown, which they haven't done since Week 11 at Buffalo.
Recommendation: Start Worthy
WRs Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy managers might have trepidation about starting Mooney after up-and-down performances in recent weeks. And a few desperate managers who snuck into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed might even be eying McCloud. Understandably, both will draw some interest given Mooney's strong showing against Minnesota and McCloud having now scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, but the sit-start decision on these Falcons wide receivers isn't that simple.
Although the Raiders' secondary doesn't scare anyone, opponents have been able to impose their will on the ground. When the Falcons have been able to play close or control games, they've been content to grind games away with a healthy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. During the season, Atlanta's offense has a negative four percent Dropback Rate Over Expected (DBOE) and a low 27 percent pass rate when leading by four or more points.
Mooney projects as a fairly high-floor, low-ceiling PPR WR3 this week despite low projected volume, having averaged a 22 percent target share this year. However, McCloud's a much less attractive sit-start decision. Though he's been targeted more in the last four games, all of which were losses, McCloud averaged just three targets per game in Atlanta's two wins prior to this stretch. He's a touchdown-dependent WR4 to avoid in a game where the Falcons could lean heavily on their tandem of powerful running backs if they jump out to an early lead, which they're projected to do as current 4.5-point road favorites.
Recommendation: Start Mooney, Sit McCloud
WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
Tampa Bay has been an excellent matchup to target for wide receivers in fantasy this year, but this week's sit-start decision on Johnston is made cloudier by the uncertain status of Ladd McConkey. When healthy, McConkey has been a target magnet for Justin Herbert. The rookie has eclipsed a 20 percent target share in nine of 12 games this season, including a whopping 52 percent target share against the Falcons the last time we saw McConkey in Week 13. That left Johnston with just four targets, even against a struggling Atlanta pass defense.
Johnston's production has also been heavily dependent upon touchdowns: an astounding 37 percent of his fantasy points have come from finding the end zone in 2024. In fact, he's averaged 15.9 PPR points per game (PPG) in the six games where he's scored but an ugly 3.5 PPR PPG in his other five outings. If McConkey still isn't practicing by Friday, Johnston could be a solid upside flex option as one of Herbert's top targets, especially with Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. already ruled out. If McConkey can practice, though, his impending return would relegate Johnston to a more volatile touchdown-dependent WR4.
With Los Angeles not playing until the mid-afternoon slate this week, closely monitor for updates to McConkey's status on Saturday and Sunday morning. Those reports will be crucial in making your sit-start decision on Johnston.
Recommendation: Start Johnston (especially if McConkey is out again)
More Week 15 Sit-Start Help
If you're grappling with other tough sit-start decisions for the first week of the fantasy playoffs, check out our customized rankings to see where Xavier Worthy and the rest stack up. Footballguys has tiered rankings for each offensive skill position based on your league's scoring settings and even highlights your rostered players.
Best of luck in the fantasy playoffs!
