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Sleepers Fuel Our Dreams of Late-Round Glory
Landing 1-2 strong performers in the late rounds of fantasy drafts not only erases early-round mistakes but also provides depth that limits your need to make trades or scour the waiver wire. At best, hitting on sleepers doubles your firepower at a position.
Here's a list of sleepers who hit last year. All of them had ADPs (in parenthesis) in the 18th round or later during the summer. Players in bold were weekly starters in most formats:
- RB28 Chuba Hubbard (223)
- WR26 Jayden Reed (231)
- WR39 Tank Dell (232) WR14 Weeks 1-12
- RB31 Zack Moss (246)
- RB16 Jerome Ford (257)
- WR46 Rashid Shaheed (271): WR20 Weeks 6-10
- WR47 Darius Slayton (275): WR16 Weeks 14-18
- RB7 Kyren Williams (276)
- WR4 Puka Nacua (293)
- TE7 Tre McBride (318)
- WR61 Michael Wilson (349): WR32 Weeks 2-6
- WR60 Khalil Shakir (364): WR29 Weeks 8-12
- TE17 Jonnu Smith (425): TE11 Weeks 1-9
- WR57 Dontayvion Wicks (459): WR38 Weeks 9-18
- WR77 Demarcus Robinson (548): WR21 Weeks 14-18
50 percent of the sleepers on this list delivered starter production in 12-team PPR formats with at least three spots for receivers and/or backs in starting lineups. The rest delivered at least strong flex production for no less than five consecutive weeks.
Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Tre McBride were the tipping points for countless fantasy squads becoming legitimate playoff contenders. Jayden Reed, Darius Slayton, and Demarcus Robinson bolstered lineups as injuries and bye weeks took their toll.
Even Chuba Hubbard and Zack Moss sustained fantasy GMs with their production, powering them through close contests.
What Is A Sleeper?
Most in the fantasy community only touted a few of these players as worthwhile draft picks in the later rounds of 2023 drafts. Most of these options earned labels that made it unappealing to draft them.
That's the essence of a true sleeper: A player that most have overlooked, written off, and underrated.
Sleepers aren't players with average draft positions inside the 15th round. Everyone knows something about these prospects. If the fantasy analyst lunch table crew -- Peaky Blinders haircuts, beard oil sponsorships, pop-culture banter, craft beer talk, and thumbnails that double as veiled tryouts for a sideline reporter gig while hawking betting sites -- are touting them, it's likely the least-experienced fantasy competitor knows about them.
These dupes, who are likely full-bore into their post-15th-round sloppy time, can still probably spell the names of these "sleepers." If you're getting good-pick shout-outs for Dontayvion Wicks, Jermaine Burton, and Tyrone Tracy Jr., the dupes are showing off their homework, or the vets in your league are trying to be nice to you, the latest dupe.
You want true sleepers, the players who the dupes in your league will greet with condemnation and trash talk to mask their insecurity about their knowledge base.
- He hasn't been good since the Obama administration!
- Who? At least pick someone on the active roster.
- C'mon, at least pick someone that's on my list. Here's mine, you can save face.
Most sleepers are rookies, unproven vets, backups most don't think will inherit the volume slated for the injured starter ahead of them, and wide receivers. Most quarterbacks aren't sleepers, because you don't draft late-round backups in most formats.
If you don't covet the player enough to draft him then you don't think people are sleeping on him.
15 Sleepers to Monitor in '24 Training Camps
Below are 15 sleepers -- 10 receivers and 5 running backs with ADPs no higher than the 17th round as of early July -- that you should be monitoring closely before your August fantasy drafts. If you draft before August, take shots on 3-4 of these players and monitor the rest as free agents you can add as developments dictate.
How should you monitor these sleepers? My article, How I Evaluate August Football, is a helpful primer. You'll learn what to glean from warm-ups, drills, scrimmages, and preseason games and then how to put all of that information together.
The sleepers listed below are in order of their early-July ADP. It means 25-40 percent of this list sneaks its way into the consciousnesses of the wannabe sideline reporter crowd by month's end.
RB Braelon Allen: Sleeper Unto Himself
What Makes Allen a Sleeper? He has enough tape that shows him playing big, fast, balanced, and agile. He can punish defenders with his pads and work through multiple hits, wraps, and reaches at various levels of the defense.
Watch Allen’s game, and there are facets of reps that shine bright. These facets are like pieces to a jigsaw puzzle that promises to be a beautiful portrait of an NFL starter. That's the sleeper appeal.
The problem is the pieces are supposed to fit together, but the puzzle factory worker cut a few of them wrong. Most of it snaps in place, but the parts that don’t matter and the picture is incomplete. Sleepers tend to have this profile.
If Allen can address these pieces, he could become a top NFL starter and legitimize his sleeper status. Even if Allen's flaws may prevent him from earning long-term acclaim, he's skilled enough to earn the No.2 role to Hall on a team with a strong offense, on paper. Allen's skills with gap schemes are competent for the NFL, and he has a chance to adjust quickly enough to wide zone concepts.
Even if his upside is limited early in his career, Allen is a sleeper who could easily lead rookie runners in rushing yards and touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers running the offense.
WR Javon Baker
What Makes Baker a Sleeper? Ja'Lynn Polk is the more popular sleeper among the Patriots' receiving corps because of his draft capital and University of Washington pedigree. Baker is the more complete player who fell in the draft because, according to beat writer Greg Bedard, half of the NFL executives took Baker off their boards due to character concerns.
Baker is a natural flanker with contested-catch abilities often seen from split ends. He’s a skilled route runner with refined footwork against man-to-man coverage, nuanced manipulation techniques to bait defenders in the wrong direction before his breaks, and the snap with his breaks to generate an extra step of separation.
Polk wins the ball in the air and a lot of his highlights are fade routes. Legitimately good route runners are often sleepers in the college game because most people don't understand the intricacies of the craft.
Another reason Baker is a sleeper is the Patriots' offense. There's little belief that New England will deliver a productive passing game, but unless the defense and ground game make them a juggernaut, the Patriots will be forced to throw to stay in games. Age, injuries, and unproven commodities abound on the receiver depth chart. Taking one of the cheapest options with legitimate skill is a low-cost, high-reward proposition.
RB Isaac Guerendo: The Classic Sleeper RB Archetype
What Makes Guerendo A Sleeper? Guerendo's college career is one of the classic archetypes for an RB sleeper. He was a career reserve and special teams option behind Jonathan Taylor and Braelon Allen at Wisconsin and split time in committee with Jawhar Jordan at Louisville. When Guerendo posted top-tier marks in the 40-Yard Dash, 3-Cone Drill, and Vertical Jump, that got the attention of fans as a draft-day sleeper.
There’s going to be an either-or-sentiment about him. He’s either a hidden gem that got lost behind touted players at big schools the way Priest Holmes, Terrell Davis, and Willie Parker toiled behind Ricky Williams, Garrison Hearst, Andre Williams, and Ronnie McGill, respectively, or Guerendo epitomizes the cliché sentiment, “there’s a reason he wasn’t a college star.”
With every sleeper, the truth typically lies somewhere in between. Guerendo’s explosion shows up on tape. He reads blocks well enough to spot and exploit creases. He finds effective solutions against most penetration that disrupt the blocking scheme. He’ll overreact when he can continue his press of his blockers.
The positive side of the sleeper spectrum with Guerendo includes his physical dimensions, explosion, and movement of a feature back. He lacks star-caliber power and contact balance as a tackle-breaker, but he’s not easy to bring down. As we've seen with Elijah Mitchell, Guerendo doesn't need to be a star-caliber talent to deliver sleeper production on a stacked 49ers offense.
To become that sleeper, Guerendo must improve the depth of his presses on zone plays so he’s giving his blockers the best chance to set up their assignments. If he improves in these areas, he could become a reliable part of a committee in an NFL offense. With the 49ers using more gap-blocking in recent years, Guerendo lands in a productive scheme where has a shot to become the lead back if Christian McCaffrey gets hurt.
RB Dylan Laube
What Makes Laube A Sleeper? Laube, a star at New Hampshire, has a small-school pedigree and late-round draft capital. After two years of camp buzz, Zamir White is expected to take over for the departed Josh Jacobs. White is a good straight-line runner with some speed and power, but he's not a complete back.
Laube's skill in the passing game and his open-field artistry make him a compelling sleeper for a change-of-pace role.
While the attack isn’t optimal on this Dylan Laube TD catch, the ability to frame his position vs tight coverage, display late hands, and not fall on the ball are all good. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/AaNynzwbqN
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 3, 2024
Sleepers often don't fit the prototypical physical dimensions of starters. Laube is just shy of those dimensions but probably can add another 5-7 pounds of muscle and meet the minimums we see from lead NFL backs.
Already impressing this spring, the Raiders staff believes Laube will make the final roster. That's a safe assumption based on Laube's ability, but his sleeper status will remain intact because it's difficult for the NFL to project professional success with small-school options.
Laube has shown enough between the tackles that I believe he'll overtake Ameer Abdullah for the No.3 role this summer and see his snaps rise as the season unfolds.
WR Malik Washington
What Makes Washington A Sleeper? The trio of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Odell Beckham on paper are the most technically skilled starters headlining an NFL depth chart. Washington, a late-round rookie from Virginia, doesn't look like he has a remote chance of contributing early.
However, Washington is the sleeper archetype of a player too good to keep off the field. Washington's versatility begins with his speed and contact balance as a ball carrier. He's one of the best rookies after the catch in this class, a dimension where Washington is in a similar tier with Miami's veteran starters.
Good sleepers have multiple paths to extended opportunities. Washington can play multiple receiving roles thanks to his speed, routes, YAC skills, and contested-catch acumen. If any of the three starters get hurt, Washington is a great bet to see the starting rotation on a full-time basis.
WR Noah Brown
What Makes Brown A Sleeper? Proven production in relief of starters. Brown has demonstrated excellent rapport with C.J. Stroud. Brown can play multiple roles in the offense and that gives him multiple paths to success. He's the most well-known sleeper on this list but his ADP is still low for draft-day value.
WR Andrei Iosivas
What Makes Iosivas A Sleeper? Everyone with half of a clue knows Jermaine Burton is a compelling rookie who can play multiple roles in the Bengals' offense and could perform well enough this year that Tee Higgins earns a mid-season trade. Iosivas is an equally compelling athlete who was raw clay as a rookie from Princeton in 2023.
A sleeper develops quickly. Iosivas earned playing time last year and showed a knack for tracking the football. This winter, Iosivas looked up my guy, Drew Lieberman, a wide receiver coach for the likes of Julian Edelman, Mohammed Sanu, Brandon Aiyuk, and Dontayvion Wicks. I have credited Lieberman's technical concepts as a foundation for my evaluation criteria for receivers in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
Lieberman told the Athletic that Iosivas (and Chase Brown) have improved significantly as route runners. As with most sleepers, neither player had bad habits as much as a lack of knowledge. If the Bengals trade Higgins this year, it could have as much to do with the development of Iosivas as an outside presence as it does with the versatility Burton offers as the future No.2 option with primary receiver upside.
WR Calvin Austin III
What Makes Austin A Sleeper? Van Jefferson is considered the starter opposite George Pickens. Jefferson has been overrated due to his route skills since his years as a Florida Gator. The underrated concern with Jefferson has been his leaky hands. He has issues tracking the ball, especially when working over the middle.
Roman Wilson is considered a sleeper if you're part of the lunch table crowd, but he's raw when it comes to defeating man-to-man coverage. Pittsburgh's media believes Wilson's development is the determining factor for whether the Steelers add a veteran receiver.
Austin is the real sleeper of this depth chart. Similar in physical dimensions to his NFL Draft classmate, Wan'Dale Robinson, Austin wasn't as touted despite being quicker, faster, and capable of beating man-to-man coverage and winning the ball as an outside receiver.
Injuries have kept Austin below the radar, but if there's a Doug Baldwin sleeper type for Russell Wilson already on the roster, Austin is that guy.
WR Michael Thomas: The Written-Off Superstar Sleeper
What Makes Thomas A Sleeper? He has only played 20 games during the past three years. However, when he has played, he has caught 95 balls for 1,057 yards and scored 4 touchdowns. As sleeper archetypes go, he's the superstar written off too early.
The Steelers make a lot of sense as a destination. Arthur Smith likes to target the middle of the field and this is where Thomas is masterful.
This allows the Steelers to alternate Thomas with fellow sleeper Calvin Austin III as inside-outside options based on match-ups. Austin can earn vertical targets as a boundary option, and Thomas can earn boundary targets in the red zone.
As with most who qualify as the aging superstar-turned-sleeper, Thomas will only need training camp to acclimate to a new offense. Thomas will give Russell Wilson the best route runner and ball-winner Wilson has had since Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett.
WR Tre Tucker
What Makes Tucker A Sleeper? Blessed with speed, toughness over the middle, and dynamic physicality after the catch, Tucker has improved his attack of the ball--a significant flaw with his game. Tucker had good moments last year as the team's emerging third threat in the receiving corps. Based on the early returns from spring camp, the Raiders see a significantly better player.
This sleeper may finish the summer as the Raiders' fourth or fifth option, on paper, but an injury or two to the existing starters could make Tucker fantasy-relevant in 2024.
WR Parker Washington
What Makes Washington A Sleeper? Washington is a savvy ball-winner with the potential to develop a special rapport with a quarterback who is skilled at buying time. This is also a sleeper archetype.
Jacksonville has Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas as its outside weapons and Evan Engram as the seam stretcher. Gabriel Davis is the favorite to earn the third receiver spot as the guy who slips behind coverage that has pushed up too far while Trevor Lawrence scrambles or the Jaguars execute a long-developing misdirection play.
However, Davis drops too many targets for the Jaguars to count on him long-term. If Thomas develops quickly enough to become a stalwart primary threat with expected vertical prowess, Washington could be that sleeper who remands Davis to WR4 duty as a one-dimensional deep threat.
Washington has already spent a lot of time with the first team this spring and is developing a greater rapport with Lawrence.
WR Tim Patrick
What Makes Patrick A Sleeper? He's never been a performer remotely on par with Michael Thomas, but he is the aging and injured veteran that fantasy forgot. Patrick wins most of his targets as an inside receiver who excels on routes breaking to the boundary.
There's room for Patrick to thrive to the tune of 700-900 yards and 5-7 scores in Denver. That was this sleeper's pre-injury form. At his late-round price, that's good value.
RB Blake Watson
What Makes Watson A Sleeper? Sean Payton told the media he doesn't play the draft-capital game with running back. He holds open competitions because he recognizes the depth and breadth of talent at the position.
We saw this unfold last year with Jaleel McLaughlin. This year, Watson is a strong candidate to follow suit. Payton compared this sleeper to Alvin Kamara based on the role he could play in Denver's scheme.
Watson runs with a low center of gravity, displays savvy with multiple types of blocking schemes, and he's one of the three best receivers from the backfield in this rookie class. I thought Watson had the best hands.
Javonte Williams has never fully acclimated to Payton's blocking scheme. McLaughlin could be the sleeper-turned-starter by September. Samaje Perine is versatile for a big man and is entering the final year of his contract. Audric Estime is a slow but powerful option who could emerge as a role player in a year or two, but he arguably doesn't have as much to offer this offense as Watson.
I bet Watson earns an active spot ahead of Estime, which would put him one injury away from becoming a fantasy factor.
WR Casey Washington
What Makes Washington A Sleeper? An outside receiver with good build-up speed and contested-catch acrobatics to his game, Drake London told beat writers that Washington has been "killing it" in mini-camp, including time spent with starting rotation. Sleepers amass drumbeats that begin in the spring and continue into the summer.
We'll see if Washington can keep those drumbeats coming. Considering that Scotty Miller, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Rondale Moore, and Darnell Mooney are the four options after London on the depth chart, it's possible that a good camp from Washington could elevate him to third or fourth among the receivers.
If this sleeper gets to work with a healthy Kirk Cousins, he could offer fantasy value at a draft-day price that usually makes him a free agent in most leagues.
RB Chris Brooks: The Overshadowed Misfit Sleeper
What Makes Brooks A Sleeper? Miami has a stacked backfield with veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson capable of leading the way as fantasy assets who can do it all. The Dolphins also have a pair of dynamic big-play threats in De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright who can author dominate weeks with a handful of touches.
There is a sleeper archetype of the overshadowed misfit talent, and that suits Brooks perfectly. Brooks impressed last year as a UDFA thanks to his combination of strength, footwork, acceleration, and vision. After impressing in mop-up duty against the Broncos last fall, Brooks suffered a foot injury that sent him to IR.
Brooks is easily the biggest, strongest, and slowest back on the roster. It could work in his favor if the Dolphins decide Wilson and/or Salvon Ahmed are expendable because Brooks offers an element they don't have on the depth chart.
If cut, it could make Brooks an even better sleeper because he'll earn a shot with another team where there's less competition for playing time.
Good luck.
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