As we approach the 2024 season, many fantasy managers are already deep into their draft research. If you are so inclined, you could also use that knowledge to place some prop bets (Responsibly, of course). Our Full Player Projections will make those picks a lot easier!
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Using this tool, I compared some quarterback prop lines on various sites to our projections and found a few who could likely beat their lines by a significant amount. I focused my research on passing yards and stuck with betting the Over. Touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict, and I don't like betting against things happening. I prefer to root for them to happen.
On top of the best payout for each of these props, I also listed a Safer Bet. The required total is lower with these bets, but the payout drops slightly. With that said, here are my favorite season-long quarterback props for the 2024 season.
The Top 5 Quarterback Prop Bets
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Line: 3600.5 Passing Yards (+110 on DraftKings)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.2 | 337.3 | 511.9 | 4032 | 23.9 | 12.1 | 133.7 | 576 | 10.6 | 3.9 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 280.7 | 388.0 | 4473 | 27.0 | 8.8 | 140.8 | 621 | 9.3 | 5.3 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 346.0 | 535.0 | 3980 | 23.5 | 12.0 | 135.0 | 580 | 12.0 | 3.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.2 | 353.0 | 543.0 | 3910 | 21.3 | 15.9 | 120.0 | 471 | 9.9 | 1.9 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 345.0 | 526.0 | 3955 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 135.0 | 595 | 10.0 | 5.0 |
We start with a positive money bet that also happens to feel pretty safe. Our projectors have Hurts beating this total by over 400 yards. That means Hurts could miss one or two games and still cross the 3600-yard mark. You'll notice this type of cushion in every bet I've chosen for this article. In 2022, Hurts only played 15 games but threw for 3701 yards. Last season, Hurts played every game and hit 3858 yards. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Eagles will likely throw the ball even more in 2024. Over the last two seasons, Moore's offenses have averaged more than 4000 passing yards. A healthy Hurts should hit this number by Week 16.
Pick: OVER 3600.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 3525.5 Passing Yards (-112 on FanDuel)
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Line: 3105.5 Passing Yards (+110 on DraftKings)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.4 | 329.4 | 516.6 | 3766 | 20.4 | 14.0 | 107.1 | 559 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 290.4 | 385.1 | 4205 | 21.3 | 9.6 | 129.0 | 716 | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Bob Henry | 15.0 | 330.0 | 525.0 | 3720 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 110.0 | 610 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 15.9 | 372.0 | 611.0 | 4164 | 23.0 | 19.5 | 77.0 | 293 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 335.0 | 535.0 | 3565 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 110.0 | 565 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
While the projected cushion on this bet is fantastic at 675 yards, there is a bit more risk in betting on rookies. However, we do know a little about the offense Daniels will run. Kliff Kingsbury was the coach of the Cardinals from 2019-2022. During that time, his quarterback was Kyler Murray, an athletic quarterback who could both run and throw. That sounds a lot like Daniels, who threw for 3812 yards last season in college while adding another 1134 on the ground. Kingsbury's Cardinals averaged just over 4000 passing yards during his four seasons. With weapons like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott, and Austin Ekeler, there is no reason to think Daniels can't throw for 182 yards per game if he plays the whole season. The injury risk is a factor here, as Daniels is only 185 pounds, and the Commanders gave up the second-most sacks in the NFL last season. However, Kingsbury's teams averaged about 245 passing yards per game, meaning Daniels could beat this total in just 13 games.
Pick: OVER 3105.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 3025.5 Passing Yards (-112 on FanDuel)
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