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What is the Scott Fish Bowl?
The annual Scott Fish Bowl is the biggest season-long fantasy football tournament around, famous for its size (last year's iteration featured 3300 teams), scope (this year has added live drafts in Vancouver, London, Barcelona, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and more), reach (pitting industry insiders against fantasy fans), and mission (serving as the primary charity fundraiser for Fantasy Cares).
It's also famous for its inventive rules designed to push participants out of their comfort zone. This year, the big twist is adding points for kickoff and punt return yardage. And not a minor bonus, either. Players score one point for every 50 yards passing, one for every 10 yards rushing or receiving... and one for every 5 yards on returns.
Players also receive bonuses for every reception, carry, and first down, so it's not quite accurate to say that returns are twice as valuable as offensive production. But even with those bonuses, return scoring is... generous, to say the least. Participants have run the numbers and found that if last year's Scott Fish Bowl was played under this year's scoring, Rashid Shaheed would have outscored Ja'Marr Chase... by three points per game.
And that was last year, the worst year ever for returns-- the 42.1 return yards per game that teams averaged wasn't just the lowest mark in history, it was 25% below second place. This was largely driven by a massive drop in kickoff returns; 1.1 kickoff returns per team per game was just 60% of the previous lowest mark.
In the face of that unprecedented decline, the league instituted a new kickoff return rule this offseason designed to dramatically increase the number of returns per game.
Fortunately for you, Footballguys has you covered. I've been playing in return-yardage leagues for over 20 years and producing return-yardage content and projections for more than a decade. We long-time return-league veterans have watched sadly as our niche has been relegated to a smaller and smaller role in the hobby, but our time in the spotlight has finally arrived. To celebrate our return to relevance, here are five names you should know heading into this year's Scott Fish Bowl.
Before we dive in, though, a reminder: The Footballguys Draft Dominator has return projections for the entire league, and it automatically factors those in, along with league scoring and roster requirements, for every recommendation it makes.
(Yes, even unique scoring and lineup requirements such as in the Scott Fish Bowl. Especially unique scoring and lineup requirements such as in the Scott Fish Bowl!)
1. Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans
We start our list with the name on everyone's lips: the player who triggered the realization that Scott Fish Bowl was going to be an entirely different ballgame this year. He would have finished as the WR6 last year and with an increased emphasis on kickoff returns, some are projecting that he could contend for the #1 overall WR in 2024.
My official opinion is that he's a bit of a trap.
Scott Fish Bowl rewards returns, but it's important to realize that as long as all return yards are treated equally, this primarily means kickoff returns. Historically 77.4% of all special teams yardage has come on kickoffs vs. 22.6% on punts.
This is bad because while Shaheed is a phenomenal punt returner (93rd percentile in my projections), he's below-average on kickoffs (33rd percentile)-- and that's on the old style of kickoffs, which placed a premium on speed. The newer kickoffs will instead emphasize the ability to read leverage and find holes at the line of scrimmage, which is typically more of a Running Back skill than a Wide Receiver skill.
Another strike against Shaheed is the history of young return specialists who gain a bigger role on offense. Most eventually lose special teams responsibilities. The ones that retain them typically give up one type of return and keep the other. In the overwhelming majority of cases, the role that is lost is kickoff returner.
(Some recent examples of this pattern would include Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Tyreek Hill, and Antonio Brown.)
Part of the reason for this pattern is that kickoffs have traditionally been a more dangerous play-- an issue the new kickoff rule is designed to address. Part of it is because the difference between a good kickoff returner and a bad kickoff returner is generally smaller than the same difference among punt returners. The new rule may change this, as well.
Partly, it's because yards gained on kickoffs come further away from the opposing end zone, on average, than yards gained on punts. This makes them slightly less valuable, all else being equal. The new kickoff format isn't going to change anything about this.
The reduced injury risk might ironically work against Shaheed in Scott Fish Bowl, here. New Orleans' special teams coach is among several coaches who have noted that the reduced injury risk opens the door for teams to give their most important players more snaps on special teams.
While Shaheed is a below-average kickoff returner, teammate Alvin Kamara was a special teams superstar before coaches had him focus full-time on offense. Additionally, Taysom Hill is not a great kickoff returner, but he is likely better than Shaheed. Both have skill sets that seem better suited for the new style of return, as well.
This isn't to say that I don't see the upside for Shaheed in Scott Fish Bowl 14. Perhaps he staves off all challengers and handles 80% of New Orleans' kickoff returns again this year while growing his role on offense; if he does, he very well might challenge for the #1 overall fantasy receiver, as some have suggested.
There's probably not another player in the league that has as good of a shot at getting quality points on offense, kickoff returns, and punt returns. At our current projections, Footballguys' Draft Dominator recommends him as the 15th player on the board for Scott Fish Bowl. He's potentially a strong pick in the 2nd... depending on whether he makes it that far amid all the hype.
Similar players: Marvin Mims Jr. is projected very comparably, but I think he's a slightly better returner with slightly worse competition and a lot less hype. I wouldn't take him in the first round, either, but I think he provides a similar value proposition to Shaheed overall.
I've seen Greg Dortch mentioned as another potential three-way producer, but he has a much smaller offensive role and is an even worse kickoff returner than Shaheed. I say let your leaguemates take him.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson, Pittsburgh
There have only been eleven seasons where teams averaged 2.5 or fewer kickoff returns per game. There have only been eleven seasons where Cordarrelle Patterson has been in the NFL. Those are the same eleven seasons. His career to this point perfectly spans the worst era for kickoff returners in history.
Which is a shame because Cordarrelle Patterson is the best kickoff returner in history.
Patterson set the record for career return touchdowns at nine in an era when kickoff return touchdowns are practically extinct. He personally accounted for one out of every eight kickoff return touchdowns since he was drafted in 2013.
His 29.3 yard per return average is the third-best mark of all time, and that came over 273 career returns; the two players ahead of him (Gale Sayers and Lynn Chandnois) returned just 92 and 91 kickoffs, respectively.
After over a decade of toiling away in a league that was trying its best to sideline his unique skills, he will finally play a season in a league that wants him to return everything that comes his way. Unfortunately, it's a bit late for us in the Scott Fish Bowl. At 33, Patterson is close to the end of his career. He's set new career lows in return attempts and yards in each of the last three seasons, and he averaged just 25.6 yards per return in Atlanta after averaging at least 28.3 yards per return on each of his previous four teams.
If this rule change had come a decade ago, Patterson would have rewritten the record books (even more than he already did). As it stands, it will be a chance for us to see an all-time great finally performing in a league designed for him and imagine what he might have done in his prime.
I still think he's one of the best in the league, but I don't see him achieving relevance in Scott Fish Bowl on the back of returns alone this year. The Draft Dominator agrees, advising against considering Patterson until the rounds reach the double digits.
Similar players: there is only one Cordarrelle Patterson, but Ameer Abdullah could have been a much bigger factor if this rule change had come five years ago. He'll still play a role in 2024, but not a big enough one to make him relevant in Scott Fish Bowl.
3. Devin Duvernay, Jacksonville
A young speedster who burst onto the scene as a two-way returner, in many ways Duvernay was the Rashid Shaheed of 2022; had Scott Fish Bowl 12 been as generous to returners, his name would have shown up high on many lists.
Duvernay is not an example Shaheed wants to follow; like most young speedsters, he retained punt returns but started ceding kickoffs in Year 3.
Now Duvernay has left Baltimore, where he played his first four years, and joined the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a startling lack of experienced return options. And unlike Shaheed, Duvernay has been a very strong kickoff returner-- 85th percentile by my projections.
Jacksonville's receiver depth chart isn't impenetrable, and the other returners on the roster at the moment aren't imposing. Duvernay has a (very long) shot at the same kind of best-case scenario Shaheed is looking at (say 600 receiving yards, 300 punt return yards, and 1000 kickoff return yards), but he comes with a fraction of the buzz and at potentially a fraction of the price.
Also working in his favor is that Jacksonville was quietly one of the most aggressive kickoff return teams last year. They returned 35% of all kickoffs they saw, one of two teams above 30%. (The top mark was Green Bay at 36% behind back-to-back All-Pro returner Keisean Nixon-- who, unfortunately for our purposes, plays cornerback and is ineligible for the Scott Fish Bowl, though he's the top name on this list for IDP leagues with return yardage scoring).
Though some of that 35% mark owes to the next name on this list.
Similar players: you have to squint a bit to see the path to offensive production for Deonte Harty, KaVontae Turpin, Velus Jones Jr, or Raheem Blackshear, but all four project as Top 8 returners this year. Xavier Gipson, on the other hand, finished 2nd in total return yards last year and added 300 yards on offense; perhaps he can expand that role in Year 2? It's probably worth a mid-round pick in the Scott Fish Bowl to find out.
4. Jamal Agnew, Free Agent
Agnew is perhaps the best two-way returner in the NFL right now. He's the only player in my projections to rank 90th percentile or better on both punt and kickoff returns. He was the league's All-Pro returner as a rookie in 2017, a pro bowler in 2022, and was still going strong in 2023, averaging 10 yards per punt return and 26 yards per kickoff return. With nearly 250 career returns he's one of the most experienced options around and his 27 career returns per fumble is also one of the Top 10 marks in the league.
Let me amend that: Jamal Agnew would be the best two-way returner in the NFL right now if he was in the NFL right now. Agnew fractured his leg in Week 17 and is currently a free agent.
This raises a very important point about the Scott Fish Bowl prioritizing returners in July: a large percentage of the teams' eventual return yardage this year is not yet on the roster. If Agnew's rehab goes well, some team that is disappointed with its returners during training camp will sign him and if his health permits he'll likely finish among the league leaders in return yardage again. He might even get some playing time on offense while he's at it.
If you're looking for a fantastic late-round Scott Fish Bowl dart throw that's way off everyone's radar, Jamal Agnew is the guy who might save your season. If you're burning an early-round pick on a player banking on lots of kickoff returns, Jamal Agnew is the guy who might ruin your season. Either way, he's perhaps the biggest wildcard.
Similar players: Hunter Renfrow and Chris Claybrooks are strong punt returners still in need of a team, while Godwin Igwebuike is a good bet to also ruin someone's plans on kickoffs. Pharoh Cooper would be near the top of this list, but he announced his retirement last month; if he reconsiders at some point, I bet several teams would be happy to have him.
5. Braxton Berrios, Miami
Braxton Berrios has finished 3rd, 5th, and 7th in total return yards over the last three seasons despite switching teams during that span. In an ordinary year, I'd feel great about projecting him as a strong starter in Scott Fish Bowl. But... about that...
“Overall, it wouldn’t shock me if every number one receiver and every number one running back in the league is raising their hand to return kicks Week 4.”
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 6, 2024
- #Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on the new kickoff rules pic.twitter.com/lixfTk5p3C
That's Berrios' head coach, Mike McDaniel, talking about how the reduced risk of injury paves the way for a team's stars to potentially see more time on special teams. And that's notable on a team like the Dolphins, which is littered with former star returners.
Tyreek Hill was an All-Pro as a rookie, returning two punts for touchdowns. Jalen Waddle averaged nearly 20 yards per punt return in college. Raheem Mostert was the team's top kickoff returner two years ago before his role increased on offense. De'Von Achane averaged over 30 yards per kickoff return in college.
Maybe this is all just "coachspeak" and once the reality of the season is upon us he'll think better of risking his team's most important players. If so, Berrios will likely get the lion's share of returns for the team.
But maybe the new rules scramble our old notions so much that "Tyreek Hill returning kickoffs in Miami and Alvin Kamara returning them in New Orleans" really is on the table. Maybe the players drafted for their returns will wind up losing returns to the players those returners are leapfrogging on draft day.
There's no way to know until the season starts and we see how the league reacts.
Which makes this emphasis on return scoring a brilliant twist for the Scott Fish Bowl, because it's so generous that it's a virtual certainty that returners are going to have a lot of say in the outcome of the contest this year.
But given the amount of uncertainty, it's hard to say which returners in advance, which means aggressive moves are liable to be punished by unexpected signings like Jamal Agnew or forgotten options like Tyreek Hill.
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