Week 17 Rushing Matchups

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Tampa Bay vs Carolina

We saw a complete change last week in Tampa Bay's rushing offense. What has mostly been a committee approach for most of the season was anything but that in Week 16. Bucky Irving led the team with 16 carries compared to Rachaad White, who had just three carries last week. Interestingly, the snaps have largely remained the same, with White having 50% of the snaps and Irving having 57%. White was heavily utilized in the passing attack as he caught a career-high seven passes last week and now has 50 receptions on the year. Excluding the Week 14 game where Bucky Irving was injured, Irving has averaged 19.6 touches per game compared to White's 14. Expect this trend to continue as the rookie Irving has emerged as one of the best young running backs in the NFL.

Carolina's run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. They have now allowed 141 rushing yards to opposing running backs on the season, which is 24 more rushing yards than the second-most team in the NFL. The Panthers have now allowed six of the last seven running backs to top 100 rushing yards, as James Conner, Rico Dowdle, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Alvin Kamara have all topped 100 yards in the last seven games. The Panthers are simply desperate at this point to find a capable linebacker, as they've lost three of their top four middle linebackers and started undrafted rookie Jacoby Windman last week, who was signed off of Pittsburgh's practice squad earlier this season and received the first hip-drop tackle penalty in NFL history this past week. With the league's worst defensive line, as Shy Tuttle and LaBryan Ray are not NFL caliber players, combined with a linebacker group made up of Josey Jewell, who was a replacement level off-ball linebacker forced to play middle linebacker along with Windmon, make up the worst linebacking unit in the NFL. Overall, the Panthers should have zero expectations of stopping any opponent throughout the remainder of the season.

Seattle at Chicago

Seattle was completely shut down by Minnesota in Week 16 as they were unable to run the ball and went with a pass-heavy game plan. With Zach Charbonnet and Ken Walker III dealing with injuries, neither had success, as Charbonnet had just one carry while Walker led the team with eight carries but amassed just 31 yards. Walker suffered a new injury in this game as he had been dealing with a calf injury but now was an estimated non-participant on Monday's injury report with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet was an estimated limited participant with an elbow injury. If only one of these running backs is healthy, we'll see the volume consolidate around that player. Ken Walker III would see most of the carries if they're both healthy. Over the last three weeks, with both running backs dealing with injuries, we have seen Kenny McIntosh have a role as he's been on the field for about 20% of snaps over the last three weeks and could be someone to watch in Week 18 if the Seahawks rest their starters.

The Bears' defense has simply fallen apart. Whether it is due to a lack of effort after their Thanksgiving Day loss or the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus, who was also their defensive play caller, the Bears have now allowed 34 points per game since the firing of Eberflus. A big reason for the poor defense has been the inability to stop the run. Since Week 9, the Bears have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs,  are allowing 135 rushing yards per game, which is second in the NFL just behind Carolina, and overall have been a team that just seems ready for the offseason. While the defensive line is a critical need to be addressed this offseason as second-year Zacch Pickens and Byron Cowart are not NFL-caliber players, it has been the falloff of the linebacking unit that the Bears invested heavily in that has been the major reason they have not been able to stop the run. T.J. Edwards continues to have the worst season in his career, while Tremaine Edmunds got paid by the Bears in 2023 and has not been the same player they brought over from Buffalo. This defense does not have the personnel or the motivation to turn this thing around with just two weeks remaining.

Atlanta at Washington

Bijan Robinson has been a volume workhorse over the last six weeks. Outside of a 38-6 loss to Denver in which the game script got out of hand, Robinson has at least 20 carries in all five other games. Robinson has been extremely efficient, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, even with the increased volume. Last week, the change to Michael Penix Jr. had no impact on his output, as he ran for 94 yards and scored twice against the Giants, who had shut down Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara in back-to-back weeks. While the rushing volume for Robinson has increased, it has been at the expense of his pass-catching touches, as he has just two targets in each of his last three games. The Falcons' offensive line has been tremendous this season, led by right guard Chris Lindstrom, one of the best guards in the NFL; both tackles are a strength of this team as veteran Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary are excellent run blockers. Tyler Allgeier continues to have a role in this offense. However, he's largely been unproductive, averaging 10 carries per game over his last four games, just 3.6 yards per carry, largely boosted by a 25-yard and 19-yard carry.

After looking improved for a couple of weeks, the Commanders fell right back into the run defense we have seen for most of the season, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. Saquon Barkley ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns last week, as the defensive line continues to be an issue. While the linebackers are a strength led by the ageless Bobby Wagner, the defensive line with Jer'Zhan Newton and Daron Payne has been unable to stop the run. Barkley was the fourth running back to top 100 yards this season. While the Commanders' offense should help avoid some of the volume we saw this week, Atlanta will likely take a run-heavy approach with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to test the Commanders this week. One key player to watch is Jonathan Allen, as the veteran says he's close to playing in Week 17. While Allen is no longer the elite run-stopper he was early on in his career, he's still a capable body, which they desperately need along their defensive line.

Detroit at San Francisco

With David Montgomery out for at least the regular season, Jahmyr Gibbs will be one of the best fantasy backs in the NFL. Last week, Gibbs had a season-high 23 carries for 109 yards while adding 45 receiving yards against Chicago. Volume had been a concern for Gibbs as he has less than ten carries in two of his last four games, with the committee playing a hot-hand approach with him and Montgomery. With Montgomery no longer in the picture, Gibbs has been on the field for 70% of the plays last week, with that number being reduced due to the game script and the Lions having a commanding lead. Gibbs is running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, especially the right side, with center Frank Ragnow, right guard Kevin Zeitler, and right tackle Penei Sewell, all of who are amongst the best at their respective position. The Lions left guard Graham Glasgow did miss Week 16, although Dan Campbell came out and said that he expects Glasgow to start this week, but it is something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

San Francisco's run defense has completely collapsed. After starting the year as one of the better units in the NFL, they've allowed 100-yard performances to four of the last five teams they've faced, as De'Von Achane torched them this past week, running for 120 yards and a touchdown. Despite getting Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, and Talanoa Hufanga back, this defense still seems unable to stop the run, largely due to the interior of the defensive line. Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott have been abysmal at defensive tackle. A big question for the 49ers is how motivated they will be after the disappointing season where they were eliminated from playoff contention this week. The big plays have hurt this team, as De'Von Achane had a 50-yard run last week and James Cook a 65-yard run in Week 13, but we also saw both Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs top 100 yards without a run longer than 15 yards, so they're giving up production to running backs both ways. A big reason for this is the issues that the 49ers have at cornerback, as Charvarius Ward is having a career-worst season, along with starting a rookie cornerback, Renardo Green, opposite of Ward. This has forced Warner and Greenlaw to be more schematically focused on pass coverage than the elite run-stopping abilities we've seen in prior years.