Week 16 Rushing Matchups

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Arizona at Carolina

James Conner has seen a late-season surge that has propelled the Cardinals over the last three weeks and was a big reason for their much-needed victory against New England to keep Arizona's playoff chances alive. Conner has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over his last three games and capped it off with 110 yards and two touchdowns last week. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has all but abandoned the rushing attack as he doesn't seem to be 100% healthy and left last week's game for a drive due to a head injury. Murray has run for over 25 yards just once in his last seven games compared to five times in his first seven games. This should continue to push the volume toward James Conner this week, as Conner is averaging 17 carries per game over the last three weeks.

Carolina's run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL. They've now allowed opposing running backs to run for over 100 yards in five of their last six games, as Rico Dowdle had 149 yards on 25 carries last week. This team was still giving a solid effort; they lacked talent, but the effort diminished last week. Now, we're seeing a team with nearly all their defensive starters missing practice on Wednesday because of the rest. There's really no saving this team this season, as they just don't have the bodies to improve this run defense. The Panthers lost another linebacker in last week's game, and they've now lost two in the last two weeks. Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus have been placed on IR to join Shaq Thompson, who was lost earlier this season. They'll be starting Jon Rhattigan, who is in his fourth season in the NFL but has only been a special teams player throughout his career, along with an undrafted rookie, Jacoby Windmon, who has just three tackles all season, will be the backup to Rhattigan. Already the league's worst defensive line, this is just a situation you should try to take advantage of for the next three weeks.

Detroit at Chicago

The Lions will be without David Montgomery for the remainder of the season as the running back suffered an MCL injury requiring surgery last week. This should mean that the Lions will feed the ball as much as they can to Jahmyr Gibbs, with Craig Reynolds serving as the backup role this week. Just how much volume Gibbs can handle will be the big question, as he's only averaging 16.0 touches per game but has seen a slight uptick recently, averaging 17.25 over the last four games. It seems unlikely that Gibbs is going to have Alvin Kamara-type volume where he is approaching 30 touches, so Reynolds will likely have a role here as the Lions need to be looking ahead toward the playoffs. This is a team that has one of the best offensive lines in football, led by their tackles as Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell are having tremendous seasons, while 34-year-old Kevin Zeitler is having a career resurgence playing alongside center Frank Ragnow and Sewell.

Chicago simply looks lost without Matt Eberflus calling the plays. Since Eberflus was fired, the Bears have been allowing 34 points per game while they have been losing both games by an average of 21.5 points. This run defense has been struggling far longer than the two games without their head coach, but now we're adding in the negative game script, which only encourages more rushing from their opponents. While Chicago hasn't allowed any massive 150+ rushing yard performances, mostly thanks to their strong safety play, they are a unit that allows a lot of yards to every team they face. Since Week 9, the Bears have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-most rushing yards per game, and every running back that they have faced has topped at least 70 yards. This is an issue where they do not have the defensive front seven to consistently win in the trenches. The interior of the defensive line has significant issues, while the linebackers, who had hoped to be a strength heading into this season, have disappointed as T.J. Edwards is having a career-worst season while Tremaine Edmunds has struggled over the last two seasons with Chicago since they signed him from Buffalo.

Denver at LA Chargers

Denver's running back room is a complete mess. Jahleel McLaughlin will miss this week with a quad injury, which leaves Javonte Williams and Audric Estime as the two running backs for Denver. It would seem likely that Estime would get the majority of the volume here, as Williams has struggled in recent weeks. Over his last three games, he's averaged just six carries for 4.7 total yards per game, averaging less than one yard per carry. Meanwhile, Estime has not seen much volume but has been slightly better, averaging 3.6 carries and 13.3 yards per game. Either way, neither running back inspires much confidence here as the strength of the Broncos offensive line was their tackles while having some glaring holes on the interior at center and left guard with Luke Wattenberg and Ben Powers. McLaughlin excelled at the off-tackle runs, but neither Estime nor Williams fits the speed, cut-back running back profile. We could see more Marvin Mims Jr. getting multiple carries this week on jet sweep-type plays.

The Chargers are a difficult team to figure out. This had started the year as one of the league's best defenses, but since Week 9, they're allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game. Even more recently, the Chargers have allowed three 100-yard rushers over their last four games as Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and an injured Bucky Irving all were able to run on this defense. What's most concerning is not that Irving topped 100 yards. It is more that Sean Tucker and Rachaad White also found success, as Tampa Bay had 198 rushing yards. A big reason for the decline has been injuries in the secondary that have forced the Chargers to put more emphasis on stopping the pass, which has left their run defense vulnerable. Los Angeles suffered two more critical injuries last week. Safety Elijah Molden and cornerback Cam Hart will both miss this week. With the loss of Molden, the Chargers are now down to just Marcus Maye, who has been with the team for just three weeks as the only free safety left, with both Molden and Alohi Gilman injured.

Miami at San Francisco

De'Von Achane is struggling. After averaging an unsustainable 7.8 yards per carry, Achane has regressed hard down to just 3.9 yards per carry this season. More recently, the running back has topped 50 yards just once in his last six games while averaging 36.8 yards per game and averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. Achane is very unlikely to see his role reduced, as while the team has increased Raheem Mostert's role over the last three weeks, he has not shown anything that would give the Dolphins confidence to make the move to more of a committee approach that we saw last season. Part of the issue for the Dolphins has been issues on the offensive line, as Terron Armstead has missed the last two weeks. While he's questionable, it seems a long shot that he's going to be able to play this week, which would mean that rookie Patrick Paul would once again get the start. Paul has been one of the worst run-blockers in the NFL in terms of his limited playing time this season.

How motivated is San Francisco to finish out their last three games? With the absolute turmoil in the building related to De'Vondre Campbell refusing to enter the game, the 6-8 49ers have been struggling, which is not something we're used to seeing. This defense has allowed three 100-yard rushers over their last four games to Kyren Williams, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs. The issue for the 49ers is their defensive line. Both Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott were significant downgrades from the elite defensive lineman that we've seen in past seasons, while on the edge, Leonard Floyd is playing a significant amount of snaps when he is incapable of stopping the run at this point in his career and is primarily only a pass rusher. If there is good news for the 49ers, it is that they get another week with former All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga, who returned in Week 15, along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw. While neither player was outstanding in Week 15, getting another week back from their regular starters should show signs of improvement for this struggling defense.